Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread (April 2017)

[Adnarel]

Exception that proves the rule.

 

[Illiniman94]

It is, of course, fair and accurate to say there are no absolutes in recruiting... with that said, if Tilmon does end up recommitting to Illinois, I would feel quite confident in stating that his was absolutely one of the strangest recruitments ever.

Well it kind of has been already.

 

[Deleted member 10676]

Really? Ask Indiana about that.

Neither Durham nor Moore actually got their release. They agreed to talk to Archie first and stayed committed. Not the same as the Tilmon or Pickett situation.

 

[foby]

Man I get annoyed with people speaking in absolutes on here. When it comes to recruiting, there are no absolutes. Does opting out of an LOI mean you're 100% not going to that school? No. I'm not saying he's coming here, I don't even think it's likely, but I'm sure as hell not going to say it's a 100% impossibility.

:thumb:

 

[haasi]

what math, I am saying right now we have a 95% chance we get Smith, and a 33% chance we get JT if we do get smith our chances go up to 75-80% we get JT

There's no way we only have a 33% chance at Tilmon now if we have a 75-80% chance of getting JT if we get Smith and a 95% chance of getting Smith. We'd have minimum about a 70% chance at Tilmon right now. To give us a 33% chance right now, we would have to have a negative 765% chance of getting Tilmon if we don't get Smith.

For the jump from 33% to 75% in the event we get Smith, you'd need the probability of our getting Smith to be way lower.

 

[Deleted member 8213]

what math, I am saying right now we have a 95% chance we get Smith, and a 33% chance we get JT if we do get smith our chances go up to 75-80% we get JT

This is a little silly since these probabilities seem to be pulled from thin air, but the math he's referring to is that if the odds of getting Smith are truly that high then the Tilmon odds can't possibly swing that wildly.

 

[skibdaddy]

what math, I am saying right now we have a 95% chance we get Smith, and a 33% chance we get JT if we do get smith our chances go up to 75-80% we get JT

They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time, it works every time.

p.s. somebody teach me how to put a GIF on here!

 

[TownieMatt]

There's no way we only have a 33% chance at Tilmon now if we have a 75-80% chance of getting JT if we get Smith and a 95% chance of getting Smith. We'd have minimum about a 70% chance at Tilmon right now. To give us a 33% chance right now, we would have to have a negative 765% chance of getting Tilmon if we don't get Smith.

For the jump from 33% to 75% in the event we get Smith, you'd need the probability of our getting Smith to be way lower.

 

[haasi]

TownieMatt, LOL.

 

[BMo79]

This is a little silly since these probabilities seem to be pulled from thin air, but the math he's referring to is that if the odds of getting Smith are truly that high then the Tilmon odds can't possibly swing that wildly.

look its real simple, take smith out of the picture and our chance with JT is about 33% that's 33% for us for Mizzu and for KU


if the Illini can get smith then our odds just up a ton to get JT its not rocket science

 

[Dren1]

They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time, it works every time.

p.s. somebody teach me how to put a GIF on here!

 

[Deleted member 8213]

look its real simple, take smith out of the picture and our chance with JT is about 33% that's 33% for us for Mizzu and for KU


if the Illini can get smith then our odds just up a ton to get JT its not rocket science

obviously. :huh:

 

[haasi]

look its real simple, take smith out of the picture and our chance with JT is about 33% that's 33% for us for Mizzu and for KU


if the Illini can get smith then our odds just up a ton to get JT its not rocket science

Ah you mean 33% chance of getting Tilmon if we don't get Smith, I do love the optimism

 

[Adnarel]

p.s. somebody teach me how to put a GIF on here!

Perfect thread for that found here. You can also do a preview of your post to make sure it works properly before you make it go live.

 

[Deleted member 8213]

p.s. somebody teach me how to put a GIF on here!

Just hit the little mountain with the sun shining over it icon and paste in the url of your image.

 

[ILLINIFAN2]

who cares about Tilmon? why so much talk about a guy who has decommited from UI? I'm just hoping Smith commits to UI. Would be happy with whatever decision Smith makes and would wish him the best if he goes elsewhere. If Tilmon wants to come back to UI, good, if not, that's fine too.

I concur, tired of seeing his name in this thread and makes me cringe every time I see it brought up. BUT, from what I have heard in the last 24 hours, there are legs to the story of him being still interested in UofI.

If I was Underwood, I would let the ship sail and let bygones be bygones but it is a huge position of need now/future. Shall be an interesting upcoming week...

 

[BMo79]

Ah you mean 33% chance of getting Tilmon if we don't get Smith, I do love the optimism

yes I am saying right now the odds of us getting Smith are about 95%
JT is about 33%


Ayo is about 70-80%


THT 50% more based on not knowing how many rides we will have


as things changes the % goes up or down

 

[sacraig]

Two things:

1. Some people on here need to go take a course in probability. Conditional probability is a real thing, and probability can absolutely change over time.
   
   
   
2. See below...
   
   

 

[matt1all]

yes I am saying right now the odds of us getting Smith are about 95%
JT is about 33%


Ayo is about 70-80%


THT 50% more based on not knowing how many rides we will have


as things changes the % goes up or down

You running a book where I can live bet against us at those odds?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[icengineer]

Since when do we have problems with people making stuff up on here??? Seems about 90% of everything on here is make believe. And that 90% goes up to about 92% when I'm posting.

 

[sacraig]

Since when do we have problems with people making stuff up on here??? Seems about 90% of everything on here is make believe. And that 90% goes up to about 92% when I'm posting.

73.6% of all statistics are made up.

 

[illiguy85]

Back to relevant regularly scheduled recruiting news ...

If we miss on Smith, do you think we fill the scholarships with transfers? Not clear who our secondary options are to fill out this class.

 

[BMo79]

You running a book where I can live bet against us at those odds?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

to many variables

 

[ivwilsoniv]

Two things:

1. Some people on here need to go take a course in probability. Conditional probability is a real thing, and probability can absolutely change over time.

Wait, you're saying probability is fluid?

 

[sacraig]

Wait, you're saying probability is fluid?