It is, of course, fair and accurate to say there are no absolutes in recruiting... with that said, if Tilmon does end up recommitting to Illinois, I would feel quite confident in stating that his was absolutely one of the strangest recruitments ever.
Really? Ask Indiana about that.
Man I get annoyed with people speaking in absolutes on here. When it comes to recruiting, there are no absolutes. Does opting out of an LOI mean you're 100% not going to that school? No. I'm not saying he's coming here, I don't even think it's likely, but I'm sure as hell not going to say it's a 100% impossibility.
what math, I am saying right now we have a 95% chance we get Smith, and a 33% chance we get JT if we do get smith our chances go up to 75-80% we get JT
what math, I am saying right now we have a 95% chance we get Smith, and a 33% chance we get JT if we do get smith our chances go up to 75-80% we get JT
what math, I am saying right now we have a 95% chance we get Smith, and a 33% chance we get JT if we do get smith our chances go up to 75-80% we get JT
There's no way we only have a 33% chance at Tilmon now if we have a 75-80% chance of getting JT if we get Smith and a 95% chance of getting Smith. We'd have minimum about a 70% chance at Tilmon right now. To give us a 33% chance right now, we would have to have a negative 765% chance of getting Tilmon if we don't get Smith.
For the jump from 33% to 75% in the event we get Smith, you'd need the probability of our getting Smith to be way lower.
This is a little silly since these probabilities seem to be pulled from thin air, but the math he's referring to is that if the odds of getting Smith are truly that high then the Tilmon odds can't possibly swing that wildly.
look its real simple, take smith out of the picture and our chance with JT is about 33% that's 33% for us for Mizzu and for KU
if the Illini can get smith then our odds just up a ton to get JT its not rocket science
look its real simple, take smith out of the picture and our chance with JT is about 33% that's 33% for us for Mizzu and for KU
if the Illini can get smith then our odds just up a ton to get JT its not rocket science
Perfect thread for that found here. You can also do a preview of your post to make sure it works properly before you make it go live.p.s. somebody teach me how to put a GIF on here!
p.s. somebody teach me how to put a GIF on here!
who cares about Tilmon? why so much talk about a guy who has decommited from UI? I'm just hoping Smith commits to UI. Would be happy with whatever decision Smith makes and would wish him the best if he goes elsewhere. If Tilmon wants to come back to UI, good, if not, that's fine too.
Ah you mean 33% chance of getting Tilmon if we don't get Smith, I do love the optimism
yes I am saying right now the odds of us getting Smith are about 95%
JT is about 33%
Ayo is about 70-80%
THT 50% more based on not knowing how many rides we will have
as things changes the % goes up or down
Since when do we have problems with people making stuff up on here??? Seems about 90% of everything on here is make believe. And that 90% goes up to about 92% when I'm posting.
You running a book where I can live bet against us at those odds?
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Two things:
- Some people on here need to go take a course in probability. Conditional probability is a real thing, and probability can absolutely change over time.