UNLV 89, Illinois 82 POSTGAME

[westcoastillini]

we play 31 games. Maybe you are just testing our math...also 14-15 is a better winning percentage than 12-13.

I will bet my dream beachouse (and fictitious one) that we will win at least 15 games (btw 15 -16 winning percentage exceeds 14-15 and 12-13 .

Thanks for the math challenge

I think he is talking about the 12-13 season. Not # of wins

 

[illinitiger]

I think he is talking about the 12-13 season. Not # of wins

LOL.. you are probably right. I dont remember 15-16 season record...was that the Bama NIT blowout debacle season?


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[jrichisamazing]

We're 2-3 games behind where we would have reasonably expected. That's a disappointment, it's worrying, but there's no use crying over spilled milk. This is BU's program now for the forseeable future. Go get better.

We wanted to have a good season, but anyone who expected to have a good season was foolish. But forget the record, I don't think there is any way you could've watched these last few games and be worried about the future.

Complaining about the start of this season is like complaining about not having any commits right before Ayo committed. Who cares how we are playing right now or what our Kenpom rating is? I want to know how we are playing in February or March.

BTW does anyone know what our Kenpom rating was to start the season? Just wondering how much we've risen thus far.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

BTW does anyone know what our Kenpom rating was to start the season? Just wondering how much we've risen thus far.

I don't remember exactly but I want to say around 110. It hasn't moved much. But preseason rankings aren't really to be trusted. Only now that we've played a decent sample of games am I really paying attention to advanced stats. They need sample size to work.

 

[Ransom Stoddard]

BTW does anyone know what our Kenpom rating was to start the season? Just wondering how much we've risen thus far.

104, I believe.

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[SycIllini]

Of course there was no mention of Leron’s injury during the broadcast, they were too busy talking to Kareem about his life, his book, and everything except this game. From just after half time until nearly the 11+ minute mark.


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The Kareem time was certainly annoying. Especially since it was a part of the game we were making a nice run. Seemed like they could have worked Kareem in a little better when there wasn't so much action in the game.

I hate to admit but, I actually kind of liked Crean as a game announcer.

 

[FiveStar]

I hate to admit but, I actually kind of liked Crean as a game announcer.

It really feels slimy but I’m in the same boat. I think it was a mix of knowing the leftover Illinois personnel plus others from recruiting and being complimentary toward our players and staff.

 

[sinmyp]

2 things.
1 Does ESPN really not know how long a Basketball game lasts. Please you flilpin idiots, schedule the games without the overlaps. I am tired of missing half the game beacause you think they only last 2 hrs.

2. I watch basketball for the game. If I want to watch celbrity interviews I would have Jimmy Kimmel or one of those other such shows I never watch on. I tuned in to watch a game.

Sorry, rant over.

 

[Cymoin]

Missing the Obvious

BU has stated that lots of the offense and defense has not been introduced to the players because they are having trouble grasping the fundamental foundational elements. OK, he wasn't that blunt but he might as well have been. I watched the MD-ILL game with a 76-year old coach who has coached at every level, winning state titles at the high school level and nattys at the JC level. His comment: "I can see what both coaches want their players to do but the kids just are not that smart. Power 5 D1 players are athletic but most would shock you at how little they truly understand about the fundamentals of the game. AAU is killing the beauty of the game and all the D1 coaches know it but there is nothing they can do about it because it has become a big money industry." We can talk about freshmen baby steps and breakout games, etc., etc., but the reality is that 90% of the D1 players are dumb. Simple plays are difficult for them to comprehend. I'll bet you those players at SF Austin were smarter than almost every player on Illinois current roster. That's why when you watch the film from BU's teams there, you get excited. But even those SFA kids could only go so far because they lacked athletes. So it really does not matter who the coach is these days; you have to stockpile top players who, hopefully, have a marginal IQ that will allow them to learn some basic plays. My gut is that the 2019-2020 year will be the year that this team begins to show consistency while also having three recruiting classes on campus (I'm not counting this year's since most of these players were recruited by JG).

 

[illinitiger]

dont agree with all of this....

BU has stated that lots of the offense and defense has not been introduced to the players because they are having trouble grasping the fundamental foundational elements. OK, he wasn't that blunt but he might as well have been. I watched the MD-ILL game with a 76-year old coach who has coached at every level, winning state titles at the high school level and nattys at the JC level. His comment: "I can see what both coaches want their players to do but the kids just are not that smart. Power 5 D1 players are athletic but most would shock you at how little they truly understand about the fundamentals of the game. AAU is killing the beauty of the game and all the D1 coaches know it but there is nothing they can do about it because it has become a big money industry." We can talk about freshmen baby steps and breakout games, etc., etc., but the reality is that 90% of the D1 players are dumb. Simple plays are difficult for them to comprehend. I'll bet you those players at SF Austin were smarter than almost every player on Illinois current roster. That's why when you watch the film from BU's teams there, you get excited. But even those SFA kids could only go so far because they lacked athletes. So it really does not matter who the coach is these days; you have to stockpile top players who, hopefully, have a marginal IQ that will allow them to learn some basic plays. My gut is that the 2019-2020 year will be the year that this team begins to show consistency while also having three recruiting classes on campus (I'm not counting this year's since most of these players were recruited by JG).

.

"the reality is that 90% of the D1 players are dumb. Simple plays are difficult for them to comprehend. I'll bet you those players at SF Austin were smarter than almost every player on Illinois current roster". ...I dont agree with this[emoji11]

I get that AAU causes many players to rely heavily on individual talent, but I don't buy into the insinuation that SFA is different scenario because they have "smarter players."

This is a fairly complicated new system. SFA had a advantage because their early season competition was lower than ours is.

BU has had very good postseason success with...what on paper looks like inferior teams (talent wise). I have bought in to believe in BUs system. I think he can be very competitive with avg talent...says alot for his system and coaching. I think he can be a top 20 team with the system and above avg talent (after full implementation). We have some weak areas near term but I believe we have makings (good coach and above avg talent potential) ...of a top 20 team over the next few years.

each game may give us fits early on in the transformation...but Illini basketball arrow is pointing up.

 

[Deleted member 631370]

We're 2-3 games behind where we would have reasonably expected. That's a disappointment, it's worrying, but there's no use crying over spilled milk. This is BU's program now for the forseeable future. Go get better.

Wait.....so you "reasonably expected" us to be potentially 10-1 at this point in the season? I hope you don't gamble. Every outcome has gone exactly how many of us thought it would go, and Wake is really the only one where I felt we should have won going into the game (but still figured we'd lose given that Wake was up against the wall and it was our first game away from Champaign).

Going into UNLV and winning? Beating a veteran NW team? Beating a talented Maryland team? We were underdogs in each for a very good reason. And yet, we were in it until the very end in each.

You realize the media and the coaches picked us to suck for a reason, right?

 

[IlliniJim20]

It happened twice because Finke and Kipper lost focus on man once each. Otherwise the zone was very effective. It either ended up with a contested shot or a drive into traffic.

Didn't we make a 10-0 or 12-0 run when we went to the zone?

 

[Calvin]

the reality is that 90% of the D1 players are dumb.

This post is dumber.

 

[skyIdub]

BU has stated that lots of the offense and defense has not been introduced to the players because they are having trouble grasping the fundamental foundational elements. OK, he wasn't that blunt but he might as well have been. I watched the MD-ILL game with a 76-year old coach who has coached at every level, winning state titles at the high school level and nattys at the JC level. His comment: "I can see what both coaches want their players to do but the kids just are not that smart. Power 5 D1 players are athletic but most would shock you at how little they truly understand about the fundamentals of the game. AAU is killing the beauty of the game and all the D1 coaches know it but there is nothing they can do about it because it has become a big money industry." We can talk about freshmen baby steps and breakout games, etc., etc., but the reality is that 90% of the D1 players are dumb. Simple plays are difficult for them to comprehend. I'll bet you those players at SF Austin were smarter than almost every player on Illinois current roster. That's why when you watch the film from BU's teams there, you get excited. But even those SFA kids could only go so far because they lacked athletes. So it really does not matter who the coach is these days; you have to stockpile top players who, hopefully, have a marginal IQ that will allow them to learn some basic plays. My gut is that the 2019-2020 year will be the year that this team begins to show consistency while also having three recruiting classes on campus (I'm not counting this year's since most of these players were recruited by JG).

Old man thinks kids these days are dumber.

Hot take Hall of Fame!

 

[pruman91]

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/coll...cle_93b3d861-aed5-5a1c-8b66-500a455897ff.html


“Forty-eight free throws on the road … you’re not winning,” Underwood said before uttering the sin that was destined to bother him every minute of the flight home. “Eight fouls in the backcourt.”

Coaches talk about “teachable” moments, but in this case, Underwood has one his team should be able to understand. And he won’t have to teach it while pounding on a table or screaming until his veins pop.



Very calmly he can point to this game and praise his team for its effort. The Illini fought, mostly uphill, and never stopped fighting even though it seemed like everyone was hanging by a thread with four fouls.

He can pat freshman guards Mark Smith and Trent Frazier on the back (he grabbed Smith and hugged him when he finally fouled out) for breakthrough ofensive games. Smith, the Edwardsville product who has struggled mightily with his shot, led Illinois with 17 points while making four of five from 3-point range.


whew.........nuff said

 

[zpfled]

Not sure about that. I'd argue that Weber really left the program much worse than obviously what he found, which was an amazing team. I do not think Groce left the program in worse shape and actually (even with the loss of Tilmon) the current state is a little better (or equal at worst) than what Bruce left in 2012. Yet, it was too little, too late and Groce failed to significantly upgrade the talent level. The early promise and signs of a recruiting turnaround under Groce never really materialized until it was probably too late.

Much of the success for Underwood will also depend on his ability to upgrade the overall talent level (which is correlated but different than just rankings).

Fair enough, Groce inherited a mess and left a mess. But at the time of his departure we had Tilmon and Frazier in the recruiting class so he had finally filled the two biggest roster holes we'd had for his entire tenure.

 

[The Dave]

So I was at the game and here are a few thought. Be aware that you basically get to see NO replays so this was just based on one-time, quick hit viewing...

1. The reffing was HORRIBLE. It was certainly biased against us, but even some of the calls that went our way were horrible. They didn't even seem like make-up calls, they were just bad across the board. Nobody should be paying that set of refs to do games for 10 year old kids. My comment about 3 minutes in to the 2nd half was "I thought refs weren't allowed to bet on games".

2. Our backline defense in the zone seemed pretty weak. Too many easy feeds to their big men down low once UNLV figured it out. We seemed to do better matched up in man against their bigs. That was surprising.

3. Seeing the guys on the court it was obvious UNLV was bigger and more athletic than us. Watching warm-ups I expected us to get blown away by fast breaks and putbacks. They did that at times but overall we competed fairly well.

4. Kipper seemed like the only guy willing to get down and dirty and battle for boards. I was really impressed by his rebounding effort.

5. Not execution related...had 2 buddies with me at the game. One a Badger and one just wanting to go to Vegas. They were both really impressed by the amount of Orange representing at the game and around the MGM before and after. Nice job on the support, Illini Nation!

 

[mattcoldagelli]

We're 2-3 games behind where we would have reasonably expected.

Really? Before the season, I thought we'd have a chance at either the NW or MD games, but probably not both. Once WF imploded to start I thought that was gettable but if I'm being honest, I had that as a loss in October. I thought UNLV was going to beat us by 15+.

So we're pretty much one off of my reasonable (yet still, I think, on the optimistic side) expectations. No good wins, no bad losses.

It's December 11 - entertain the possibility that we don't know what this season holds yet.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Wait.....so you "reasonably expected" us to be potentially 10-1 at this point in the season?

No, but I also didn't expect Wake or Northwestern to be as bad as they are.

Going into UNLV and winning? Beating a veteran NW team? Beating a talented Maryland team? We were underdogs in each for a very good reason. And yet, we were in it until the very end in each.

Again, we're #100 in KenPom which reflects those competitive losses to respectable teams, but also reflects our struggles to put away a bunch of particularly bad cupcakes.

KenPom says with the exception of the 2016 injury disaster, this is the worst Illinois team of this millennium, and by something of a margin. That reflects what I'm seeing. That does not reflect what I'm reading here. I'm all for honeymoons, I love all the no-BS Underwood stuff too, but not at the expense of being clear-eyed about what we're seeing.

You realize the media and the coaches picked us to suck for a reason, right?

I do. And if you think returning everybody and bringing in Ayo is going to make those same voters turn around and predict us 5th in the conference next year, you've absolutely lost your mind. Programs improve on the court before they improve in preseason media polls, always always always. This could have been that year, or could yet be really. Next year could be that year. But we will not be picked to return to upper division status until we prove it on the court, that's just the way these things work.

And if this team finishes at 100 in Kenpom, they shouldn't be picked as a tourney team next year either. "You shouldn't expect us to be good, no one picked us to be good" is an excuse without an expiration date.

 

[TheGMan]

No, but I also didn't expect Wake or Northwestern to be as bad as they are.



Again, we're #100 in KenPom which reflects those competitive losses to respectable teams, but also reflects our struggles to put away a bunch of particularly bad cupcakes.

KenPom says with the exception of the 2016 injury disaster, this is the worst Illinois team of this millennium, and by something of a margin. That reflects what I'm seeing. That does not reflect what I'm reading here. I'm all for honeymoons, I love all the no-BS Underwood stuff too, but not at the expense of being clear-eyed about what we're seeing.



I do. And if you think returning everybody and bringing in Ayo is going to make those same voters turn around and predict us 5th in the conference next year, you've absolutely lost your mind. Programs improve on the court before they improve in preseason media polls, always always always. This could have been that year, or could yet be really. Next year could be that year. But we will not be picked to return to upper division status until we prove it on the court, that's just the way these things work.

And if this team finishes at 100 in Kenpom, they shouldn't be picked as a tourney team next year either. "You shouldn't expect us to be good, no one picked us to be good" is an excuse without an expiration date.

You're right. Shut the program down.

 

[FeelYourPaign]

Again, we're #100 in KenPom which reflects those competitive losses to respectable teams, but also reflects our struggles to put away a bunch of particularly bad cupcakes.

I have a different impression, hence this question. I don't think that the Ken Pom system cares all that much whether you win or lose, I think it is actually about the way that you go about the game. Is this correct? It is my impression that it is all about style and nature of play. Of course, if that style is effective you are more likely to win and vice versa, so there is a correlation, but Ken Pom is unusual I believe in that you can lose and move up in the rankings at the same time, if you lose in a better than expected manner.

Sorry, sounds like I'm just being picky, but I wanted to see if others understand these statistical packages as I do.

Edit: reread your paragraph after posting this and see that you might have meant a lot of what I said. Anyway, I'll turn the radio down and await anyone's response

 

[Illiniguy13]

No, but I also didn't expect Wake or Northwestern to be as bad as they are.



Again, we're #100 in KenPom which reflects those competitive losses to respectable teams, but also reflects our struggles to put away a bunch of particularly bad cupcakes.

KenPom says with the exception of the 2016 injury disaster, this is the worst Illinois team of this millennium, and by something of a margin. That reflects what I'm seeing. That does not reflect what I'm reading here. I'm all for honeymoons, I love all the no-BS Underwood stuff too, but not at the expense of being clear-eyed about what we're seeing.



I do. And if you think returning everybody and bringing in Ayo is going to make those same voters turn around and predict us 5th in the conference next year, you've absolutely lost your mind. Programs improve on the court before they improve in preseason media polls, always always always. This could have been that year, or could yet be really. Next year could be that year. But we will not be picked to return to upper division status until we prove it on the court, that's just the way these things work.

And if this team finishes at 100 in Kenpom, they shouldn't be picked as a tourney team next year either. "You shouldn't expect us to be good, no one picked us to be good" is an excuse without an expiration date.

I'm not discrediting Kenpom, because I'm sure the #'s objectively tell the tale you're sharing here -- but really? Do you honestly believe Groce's senior led squad last year wouldn't have lost to Maryland & UNLV by 25?

 

[Second and Chalmers]

It's December 11 - entertain the possibility that we don't know what this season holds yet.

No, I absolutely do. There is obvious potential for improvement here. Though the possibility should also be entertained that if Black is hurt for an extended period this thing could go completely into the tank.

You're right. Shut the program down.

Right, because that's what I'm saying. That's why I've wasted so much of my life arguing with people here, because I want Illinois athletics to close up shop.

We're a fanbase that doesn't even remember what "gee, this team is improving and exceeding expectations right before our eyes" looks and feels like. It shows.

I don't think that the Ken Pom system cares all that much whether you win or lose, I think it is actually about the way that you go about the game. Is this correct? It is my impression that it is all about style and nature of play. Of course, if that style is effective you are more likely to win and vice versa, so there is a correlation, but Ken Pom is unusual I believe in that you can lose and move up in the rankings at the same time, if you lose in a better than expected manner.

Eh, "style and nature of play" isn't really it. It's not like one offensive system would be rewarded more than another or something. It's offensive and defensive efficiency relative to the quality of opponents. So yeah, theoretically you can go down if you squeak by a terrible team or go up if you give an elite team all they can handle, but it's not like "the computer didn't like the way they played that game, they're moving down even with a win". It's all points-per-possession based.

Do you honestly believe Groce's senior led squad last year wouldn't have lost to Maryland & UNLV by 25?

That's the same team that beat comfortably tourney-bound Michigan in a blowout, Michigan State when they were playing really well, and Northwestern twice.

I don't know how to explain a team that won an epic fistfight on the road at a desperate and hungry Northwestern and then rolled over and died at home against Penn State four days later, but both versions of that team existed last year.

A team that makes winning plays in crunch to close out a decent opponent is yet to be seen out of this year's squad.

 

[EJ33]

We're 2-3 games behind where we would have reasonably expected. That's a disappointment, it's worrying, but there's no use crying over spilled milk. This is BU's program now for the forseeable future. Go get better.

No reasonable person sees it that way.

I expected to go 0-4 or 1-3 at best against WF,NW,MD and UNLV. I'm happy that the games were competitive and you can see that change is coming.

If anything I'm more bullish about the future with Underwood.

 

[JFGsCoffeeMug]

https://illiniboard.com/story/2017/12/10/you-don-t-win-that-game/