UNLV 89, Illinois 82 POSTGAME

#176      

Second and Chalmers

S
Second and Chalmers
EJ33 said:
No reasonable person sees it that way.

I expected to go 0-4 or 1-3 at best against WF,NW,MD and UNLV. I'm happy that the games were competitive and you can see that change is coming.

If anything I'm more bullish about the future with Underwood.
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I have two questions in response to that, and these are for the group generally:

1. Do you disagree with Ken Pom having us 13th in the Big Ten currently, barely ahead of Rutgers at 104, projecting us for something around a 5-13 record in a noticeably down Big Ten? Are we playing better than that currently in your opinion?

2. When does the expectation become to win games? Is it later this year? Next year? How prominent is Ayo in those expectations? How prominent are recruits who we don't yet have?

Just trying to get a sense of the pulse here.
 
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#177      

Illiniguy13

Illiniguy13
Illiniguy13
Second and Chalmers said:
No, I absolutely do. There is obvious potential for improvement here. Though the possibility should also be entertained that if Black is hurt for an extended period this thing could go completely into the tank.



Right, because that's what I'm saying. That's why I've wasted so much of my life arguing with people here, because I want Illinois athletics to close up shop.

We're a fanbase that doesn't even remember what "gee, this team is improving and exceeding expectations right before our eyes" looks and feels like. It shows.



Eh, "style and nature of play" isn't really it. It's not like one offensive system would be rewarded more than another or something. It's offensive and defensive efficiency relative to the quality of opponents. So yeah, theoretically you can go down if you squeak by a terrible team or go up if you give an elite team all they can handle, but it's not like "the computer didn't like the way they played that game, they're moving down even with a win". It's all points-per-possession based.



That's the same team that beat comfortably tourney-bound Michigan in a blowout, Michigan State when they were playing really well, and Northwestern twice.

I don't know how to explain a team that won an epic fistfight on the road at a desperate and hungry Northwestern and then rolled over and died at home against Penn State four days later, but both versions of that team existed last year.

A team that makes winning plays in crunch to close out a decent opponent is yet to be seen out of this year's squad.
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That Michigan team was really bad early in the year and we lost to them a couple weeks later, and a 2nd time again to close out the year by 20. Think we had 4 20+ point losses last year with a program great in Hill. This years team does not have a talent like Hill or a solid 5 in Morgan and you will not see them get blown out. You will not hear Deon Thomas rant on-air about how this team lacks an identity.
 
#179      

zpfled

Z
Logan Square, Chicago
zpfled
Second and Chalmers said:
I have two questions in response to that, and these are for the group generally:

1. Do you disagree with Ken Pom having us 13th in the Big Ten currently, barely ahead of Rutgers at 104, projecting us for something around a 5-13 record in a noticeably down Big Ten? Are we playing better than that currently in your opinion?

2. When does the expectation become to win games? Is it later this year? Next year? How prominent is Ayo in those expectations? How prominent are recruits who we don't yet have?

Just trying to get a sense of the pulse here.
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Good questions:

1) I don't know much about stats, and have never paid a ton of attention to KenPom because I don't think it's fun to read that many numbers for a hobby. I haven't watched many other Big Ten teams. Therefore I can't really disagree with KenPom's ranking of us, but there doesn't seem to be a lot of separation between us and Northwestern or Maryland, so even if they're better than us, they're not MUCH better than us. Maybe we're 13th by the numbers, but with some luck we can finish higher than that.

2) This is partially contingent on Leron's status, but I expect wins in the latter half of this season (but probably not enough to get us into the tourney), and more wins to come next season because we replace Alstork with Ayo and we add a year of Underwood's coaching to a promising group of underclassmen (and 3 decent upperclassmen). I expect mega wins to start in 2018 (assuming we have a strong recruiting class, particularly on the big man front)
 
#180      

JFGsCoffeeMug

JFGsCoffeeMug
BU:1 Trash cans:0
Chicago
JFGsCoffeeMug
Second and Chalmers said:
I have two questions in response to that, and these are for the group generally:

1. Do you disagree with Ken Pom having us 13th in the Big Ten currently, barely ahead of Rutgers at 104, projecting us for something around a 5-13 record in a noticeably down Big Ten? Are we playing better than that currently in your opinion?

2. When does the expectation become to win games? Is it later this year? Next year? How prominent is Ayo in those expectations? How prominent are recruits who we don't yet have?

Just trying to get a sense of the pulse here.
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1. We are not going to finish 5-13 in the Big Ten. Are we playing better than we're currently playing? Of course not (logic demands this response). Will we play better in the future? I believe so. I still think this team can make the tournament.

2. This team could turn the corner at any moment. I want that moment to be during this season, but I know there are no guarantees that we figure it out this year. Either way, I expect a big leap forward next year. I think this team + Ayo - Alstork can win a lot of games. Ayo will help, but I don't see him as a key missing piece. Another big who can help shore up our front court would be huge.
 
#181      

Obelix

Obelix
Obelix
Second and Chalmers said:
Programs improve on the court before they improve in preseason media polls, always always always.
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Not true!

And as I have mentioned many times, just looking at what happened the last time (and only time) IMO in the last 12 years that Illinois' overall talent level was where it should have been proves exactly that point.

In 2009-10, Illinois did not make the NCAA tournament, a significant drop actually from the previous year (2008-09) when Illinois tied for 2nd in the B1G and had made the tournament. Yet, every pre-season poll entering the 2010-11 season had Illinois very high:

AP: 13
ESPN/USA Today (coaches): 16
Lindy's: 9
Sporting News: 15
Fox Sports: 12
CBS: 16
Athlon: 19
Rivals: 14
Blue Ribbon: 9

Why? The answer is simple, talent! Despite no improving, actually regressing, the previous year.
 
#182      

Deleted member 631370

D
Guest
Deleted member 631370
Second and Chalmers said:
That's the same team that beat comfortably tourney-bound Michigan in a blowout, Michigan State when they were playing really well, and Northwestern twice.

I don't know how to explain a team that won an epic fistfight on the road at a desperate and hungry Northwestern and then rolled over and died at home against Penn State four days later, but both versions of that team existed last year.
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Last year's team also featured 3 seniors in the starting lineup and a top-50 sophomore who has since transferred. And the team had the benefit of playing their entire careers within that system.

Contrast that with a roster full of guys 2 months into a brand new system -- 3 of our top 7 or 8 contributors being freshmen.

I don't think anybody here is HAPPY with going 1-4 against high-major competition, but it's the manner in which we've competed that provides a sense of optimism more so than merely looking at the W-L record. Every one of those games was winnable until the very last minute. The difference between winning them and losing them comes down to experience, leadership, and other intangibles. We are clearly at a net deficit in that department, but it's also clear that we have much more room for improvement than last year's team did.

I'd argue that our team last year was about as good as they were going to get by December. This year, it's just the opposite.

We're all entitled to our own opinions, but it baffles me to see those who are admittedly "1000% behind Lovie Smith" complain about the direction of the basketball program. Goodness.
 
#184      

EJ33

E
San Francisco
EJ33
Second and Chalmers said:
I have two questions in response to that, and these are for the group generally:

1. Do you disagree with Ken Pom having us 13th in the Big Ten currently, barely ahead of Rutgers at 104, projecting us for something around a 5-13 record in a noticeably down Big Ten? Are we playing better than that currently in your opinion?

2. When does the expectation become to win games? Is it later this year? Next year? How prominent is Ayo in those expectations? How prominent are recruits who we don't yet have?

Just trying to get a sense of the pulse here.
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I expect to make the NCAA Tournament next year.

I'm not looking at wins and losses this year to measure our progress.
 
#185      

Rad

R
Nashville, TN
Rad
jbutts718 said:
some of these posts. What were you all expecting to see this year?? We have 1 legitimate big kid.....and he is somewhat undersized. We have no Center. We are playing 3 true freshman guards extensive minutes.

If you all can't see how much better this team is than anything Groce ever put out on the floor......then I can't help.

They run offense.....and they play HARD. Freshmen will learn......we will get more size. This year will be a struggle......but all the experience these young kids are getting is HUGE.

They will be SO MUCH BETTER next year when they know the system......and just play.

Shake my head.
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+1000
 
#186      

FeelYourPaign

FeelYourPaign
So Cal
FeelYourPaign
I was actually more optimistic about our chances to win the Northwestern or Maryland game than I was UNLV, even late in the game. Even though we kept the score close again UNLV, it just didn't feel close. It was always surprising to me to look at the score and see us close. And knowing that Leron was sitting with a sling on did not help either.
 
#188      

PlayAZ

P
PlayAZ
Team played hard throughout, foul prone obviously, shooting improved overall, the offense being ran with cuts/driving improved. We are a young team learning on the fly, we will have these games all year and come up on short end probably more than less.

Just think what the next 2-3 years will be with better talent, proven-learned system and experienced guards pushing this for an outstanding coach? NCAA for sure next year...mid seeding even! We are fine, enjoy the ride and the lumps that we will take, we are on our way back!
 
#189      

mattcoldagelli

mattcoldagelli
The Transfer Portal with Do Not Contact Tag
mattcoldagelli
Second and Chalmers said:
I have two questions in response to that, and these are for the group generally:

1. Do you disagree with Ken Pom having us 13th in the Big Ten currently, barely ahead of Rutgers at 104, projecting us for something around a 5-13 record in a noticeably down Big Ten? Are we playing better than that currently in your opinion?
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Just so everyone has it, here's current KenPom for the B1G:

2. MSU
8. Purdue
35. Minnesota
38. Maryland
40. Penn St.
41. Michigan
51. Ohio St.
58. Northwestern
60. Wisconsin
80. Iowa
82. Indiana
90. Nebraska
100. Illinois
104. Rutgers

My answer? I think yes, we're better than that, but I honestly don't know. Partially because I don't know how good we are, maybe even more so because I don't know what the rest of the B1G is aside from the top 3. Are we that much worse than Northwestern at 58? My inclination is no.

Second and Chalmers said:
2. When does the expectation become to win games? Is it later this year? Next year? How prominent is Ayo in those expectations? How prominent are recruits who we don't yet have?
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That is currently my expectation. As I said, there have been some coinflip games that were frustrating losses. That happens a) when you're young, b) when you're putting in a whole new system and c) in November and December and all three apply to us. In hindsight, we should've won the Maryland game but for an uncommon sequence of events on that inbound at the end. Frankly, this thread looks very different if we get that W, and I'm not comfortable giving :04 of game time such outsize importance that it determines whether this program is on track or not.

But if you're looking for a concrete moment in time to bust out the measuring stick? I'll submit the month between our two games with Michigan State. That stretch is: IU, RU, @OSU, WIS, PSU, @IU, @NEB. I can conceive a lot of possible outcomes for that span, from 7-0 to like 2-5.

Big picture, in the Great Jimmies and Joes vs. X's and O's debate for college basketball, I think I'm more on your side (the coaching) than on Obelix's (the talent). Yes, it's obviously not as simple as an either/or, but haven't we seen enough bad coaching around these parts to know the near-insurmountable disadvantage it puts you at in CBB?
 
#190      

FiveStar

F
FiveStar
Verified Insider said:
Wait.....so you "reasonably expected" us to be potentially 10-1 at this point in the season? I hope you don't gamble. Every outcome has gone exactly how many of us thought it would go, and Wake is really the only one where I felt we should have won going into the game (but still figured we'd lose given that Wake was up against the wall and it was our first game away from Champaign).

Going into UNLV and winning? Beating a veteran NW team? Beating a talented Maryland team? We were underdogs in each for a very good reason. And yet, we were in it until the very end in each.

You realize the media and the coaches picked us to suck for a reason, right?
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I didn’t think we’d lose to anybody but Maryland at this point. We have talked about how a few calls/fouls/free throws went our way we’d be 10–1 or so. Not really crazy to think it.
 
#191      

Second and Chalmers

S
Second and Chalmers
Obelix said:
In 2009-10, Illinois did not make the NCAA tournament, a significant drop actually from the previous year (2008-09) when Illinois tied for 2nd in the B1G and had made the tournament. Yet, every pre-season poll entering the 2010-11 season had Illinois very high:

AP: 13
ESPN/USA Today (coaches): 16
Lindy's: 9
Sporting News: 15
Fox Sports: 12
CBS: 16
Athlon: 19
Rivals: 14
Blue Ribbon: 9

Why? The answer is simple, talent! Despite no improving, actually regressing, the previous year.
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I would view what you're describing as a re-iteration of the 2010 expectations, built off of the low-expectations busting 2009 season. We were ranked in the preseason in 2010 too, and beat several ranked teams, were comfortably in the tourney as of mid-February, and to admit something I was angrily arguing against at the time, we really deserved to make it in the end. We showed a ton in that season. Not good, scrappy efforts. Big, big wins.

And JFWIW, we weren't picked top 3 in the Big Ten media poll in 2011, even with that lofty AP ranking.

I'm not saying that Richmond and Leonard were irrelevant to that consideration, but it had far more to do with Demetri McCamey being preseason first team All-Big Ten as a senior.

Put it this way, forget what our final record is this season, what we are ranked next year in the media poll will be determined by where we look like we are over the heart of Big Ten season this year. Not what the score is with 3:00 left, but how sustained a stretch of quality wins we're able to get. Which makes perfect sense. A young team that returns everybody will probably look like itself the next year, but just somewhat more often like the better version of itself. We haven't seen a "better version". Yet.

Verified Insider said:
it baffles me to see those who are admittedly "1000% behind Lovie Smith" complain about the direction of the basketball program.
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I'm 1001% behind Brad Underwood and the direction of the basketball program. But we're bad right now. Just like we're bad right now in football. I wouldn't dream of firing either coach until 2019-20 at the very earliest.

John Groce took a team with which all of these lack of talent statements were made (picked 9th of 12 in the Big Ten) and had them ranked in the Top 10 as of this date his first season. Which is to say that that sort of instant impact turnaround is both completely possible and plausible and only mildly relevant to what happens going forward beyond that.

Go get better.
 
#192      

blmillini

B
Bloomington, IL
blmillini
Verified Insider said:
Last year's team also featured 3 seniors in the starting lineup and a top-50 sophomore who has since transferred. And the team had the benefit of playing their entire careers within that system.

Contrast that with a roster full of guys 2 months into a brand new system -- 3 of our top 7 or 8 contributors being freshmen.

I don't think anybody here is HAPPY with going 1-4 against high-major competition, but it's the manner in which we've competed that provides a sense of optimism more so than merely looking at the W-L record. Every one of those games was winnable until the very last minute. The difference between winning them and losing them comes down to experience, leadership, and other intangibles. We are clearly at a net deficit in that department, but it's also clear that we have much more room for improvement than last year's team did.

I'd argue that our team last year was about as good as they were going to get by December. This year, it's just the opposite.

We're all entitled to our own opinions, but it baffles me to see those who are admittedly "1000% behind Lovie Smith" complain about the direction of the basketball program. Goodness.
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Not sure where you are getting this. I frequent the football side and have not seen what you are describing at all. There is far more concern and anxt regarding Lovie than Underwood. I personally don't see how you can complain about either given the dumpster fire we have seen for far too many years.
 
#193      

Deleted member 631370

D
Guest
Deleted member 631370
FiveStar said:
I didn’t think we’d lose to anybody but Maryland at this point. We have talked about how a few calls/fouls/free throws went our way we’d be 10–1 or so. Not really crazy to think it.
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Oh, definitely. We very easily could be 10-1.

But at the beginning of the season, who here expected us at 10-1 at this stage?

By the way, not saying it's the best way to gauge progress, but Vegas had us underdogs in all 4 of our losses. And given that we were predicted to finish #12 in the B1G, our standing right now seems pretty much on par with where most non-Illinois observers expected us to be.
 
#194      

Deleted member 631370

D
Guest
Deleted member 631370
blmillini said:
Not sure where you are getting this. I frequent the football side and have not seen what you are describing at all. There is far more concern and anxt regarding Lovie than Underwood. I personally don't see how you can complain about either given the dumpster fire we have seen for far too many years.
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It's a response to S&C specifically.

Arguing for more time is a fair expectation for both BU and Lovie. But man.....if you're going to take a stand in favor of Lovie, then I don't see how you can do anything BUT give BU the same courtesy.

Lovie has coached two full seasons. We are 4 weeks into BU's tenure. Let's wait a bit before drawing sweeping conclusions.

Edit: I do see S&C's post, so that's fair. I think we can all agree that we need to improve. I guess the difference of opinion is whether we are failing to meet expectations at this stage in the season.
 
#195      

GortTheRobot

G
North Bethesda, Maryland
GortTheRobot
Second and Chalmers said:
I'm 1001% behind Brad Underwood and the direction of the basketball program. But we're bad right now. Just like we're bad right now in football.
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You argue and defend yourself well, even though I disagree with you often, but you can't really think this statement is true?

Look again at the football scores, what kind of teams we lost to, and how we competed. Now look again at those same measures in regards to basketball. I don't think they correlate.
 
#196      

Obelix

Obelix
Obelix
Second and Chalmers said:
I would view what you're describing as a re-iteration of the 2010 expectations, built off of the low-expectations busting 2009 season. We were ranked in the preseason in 2010 too, and beat several ranked teams, were comfortably in the tourney as of mid-February, and to admit something I was angrily arguing against at the time, we really deserved to make it in the end. We showed a ton in that season. Not good, scrappy efforts. Big, big wins.

And JFWIW, we weren't picked top 3 in the Big Ten media poll in 2011, even with that lofty AP ranking.

I'm not saying that Richmond and Leonard were irrelevant to that consideration, but it had far more to do with Demetri McCamey being preseason first team All-Big Ten as a senior.
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You are steadily backtracking from your original statement but you are also confused about dates and talent. First, talent does not always mean just freshmen. DMac was an above average B1G talent, Chet Frazier, despite tremendous heart, effort, and intensity was not, although a very valuable player.

Don't confuse the years either. We were very highly ranked entering pre-season in 2010 (not 2011) in pretty much ALL pre-season polls and publications despite regressing the previous year. Fact, period, so your original statement (always, always, always...) was wrong. In 2011 pre-season polls, we were actually NOT ranked highly, because again of the same simple answer, depletion of talent despite the maturity of BP3, Leonard, etc. The loss of talent in Dmac, Richmond, and the non-panning of Head was valued (negatively) a lot more than the fact that the previous year (2010-11) we had actually improved and made the tournament.

Improving the previous year helps pre-season rankings, especially if combined with talent influx and low talent depletion. But there have been many teams (especially at the top, where instant talent infusion becomes more prominent) where such infusion of talent is valued a lot more than not improving the previous year from the year before.
 
#197      

HTT

H
HTT
According to 247, Groce had two 13th ranked class (2011&2013) nationally and one 15th ranked class (2015), and we have a 29th ranked class this year. Is this "not enough talent" to even make one NCAA tournament :confused:
 
#198      

Second and Chalmers

S
Second and Chalmers
GortTheRobot said:
You argue and defend yourself well, even though I disagree with you often, but you can't really think this statement is true?

Look again at the football scores, what kind of teams we lost to, and how we competed. Now look again at those same measures in regards to basketball. I don't think they correlate.
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Oh no, we're worse in football, at least this year, than in basketball. I don't mean to equate the two. I just mean to say that in both cases my faith in the coaches is related to factors other than what I'm watching on the field/court.

Obelix said:
Improving the previous year helps pre-season rankings, especially if combined with talent influx and low talent depletion. But there have been many teams (especially at the top, where instant talent infusion becomes more prominent) where such infusion of talent is valued a lot more than not improving the previous year from the year before.
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If we're talking about Calipari arriving at Kentucky with John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins in tow, sure. We do not have that kind of talent infusion coming.

We will not be projected by the outside media to attain a level of quality next year that we do not demonstrate over a sustained period this year. I guess that's the most succinct version of my point.

BTW, I don't mean to sideline your comments about the specifics of preseason expectations in the Weber era, I just can't find those preseason media polls on Google for the life of me. Does anyone know if those are available somewhere?

Regardless, I think there's an overarching point that I think would be easy for a board warrior to ignore: Illinois basketball was perceived completely differently 6-7 years ago than it is now. There are lots of Big Ten teams that it just seems silly not to put up in the likely tourney spots of your preseason ballot. We were one of them then, we are not one of them now.
 
#199      

Calvin

C
Calvin
JFGsCoffeeMug said:
2. This team could turn the corner at any moment.
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Boy, I'm not so sure. We are so thin up front that we've looked pretty exposed against teams with a couple bigs. Not just in terms of defending, but also in terms of DQ and the cascade effect that has. I'm getting to a place where I'm not expecting real leadership from Finke or Leron, and that means we're looking at a youth movement before we break through. Alstork has struggled as well, and I thought he'd be a big part of the transition this year.

We have some bright spots, but I don't see how we get through the BIG without a lot of improvement. In the preseason, I really thought we could do 9 or 10 wins, but at 0-2 with no decent wins at all, I don't see us getting close to that.
 
#200      

Deleted member 631370

D
Guest
Deleted member 631370
Calvin said:
Boy, I'm not so sure. We are so thin up front that we've looked pretty exposed against teams with a couple bigs. Not just in terms of defending, but also in terms of DQ and the cascade effect that has. I'm getting to a place where I'm not expecting real leadership from Finke or Leron, and that means we're looking at a youth movement before we break through. Alstork has struggled as well, and I thought he'd be a big part of the transition this year.

We have some bright spots, but I don't see how we get through the BIG without a lot of improvement. In the preseason, I really thought we could do 9 or 10 wins, but at 0-2 with no decent wins at all, I don't see us getting close to that.
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Yeah, this season isn't just a matter of whether our current guys can improve enough to become a good NCAA tournament team. I'm afraid that we may not have the horses, period. Specifically in the frontcourt. We have plenty of talented kids, but they're not distributed where we need them to be.

If the only glaring issue was youth, then I'd be more optimistic. But improvement over the course of the season isn't going to patch up the frontcourt hole. Spicy G will improve over time, so that will help. But enough to give us firm standing in the paint? Almost certainly not.

And if Leron is really hurt? Oof.