skyIdub
Winged Warrior
We all know who you got. :thumb:
Illini Basketball 2018-2019
- Status
We all know who you got. :thumb:
Peoria Illini
- Peoria, IL
We're turning on each other Lord of the Flies style. Not surprising, but I do find it amusing
I try to look bigger picture. And, when I think of basic questions, I have a hard time being confident that we'll be a materially better team that'll challenge for a post-season. Sorry, as much as I want to, I can't. And I think you need to drink some seriously spiked orange koolaid to do so. Some basic questions:
1. Is our raw roster talent going to be better next year vs. last? Unsure, but I'd bet not. Outside of TF, we have no proven high level talent returning next year. DMW and KN might step up. So might AJ. But that's yet to be seen. Feel free to bet on that, but one needs to understand that's what you're betting on and that's not what you'll necessarily see and have to discount it accordingly. And all the other talent we have is completely untested unproven. Most have never played a college game - I don't know how you can say with any sort of certainty that they'll be better than what we lose (discussed more below)
2. Where will our strengths/weaknesses lie, and how does that change vs last year? I'd say our weaknesses (inside, esp on D) get worse. Our strength (wings/guards) may or may not get better. We may get raw talent (again, it's a "may" and not definitive being they're ALL new to the team outside of TF and maybe BMW/KN). But, again, this is a larger unknown than even last year. Saying with confidence that Ayo will be better than Mark Smith last year is a lot more uncertain than many on these boards are assuming, IMO. Yea yea, style of play, playing basketball longer, yadda yadda yadda, rationalize away. But those are still so variable case by case, that there's nothing, IMO to make me say with any sort of certainty that'll be the case.
3. Can our coaching "coach em up" and make them play above their talent? Maybe. Last year I'd say it wasn't the case. I think they played largely at their talent level. You could argue the SFA days maybe he did. OSU potentially, though he had a bunch of talent. I think this is a toss-up. But after last year, I'm less convinced BU will be able to get them to play significantly better than their talent level quickly. I think he's a "system" guy and that system is not easy to play/learn. Losing as much experience in that system as we did, I think it'll be harder for it to really click next year.
4. People don't talk about this enough (undertandably) - how will ILL's competitors fare? Sports is usually a relative game. You don't have to be "good", just better than your competition. There's a distinction. Here I can't say with confidence one way or another. I think at the margin the conference will be a bit weaker (MSU losing experience, Michigan too). But OSU, Indiana, potentially Neb may be better. Again, no real confidence either way.
So overall, I think we may be a bit better next year IF 1) our talent plays out how we hope or 2) coaching is able to get them to play better than their talent is or 3) the rest of the conference is weaker. If we get all 3 to some degree then we have a shot at the postseason. If we get homeruns on 1 of the three, then maybe we do then too. But I have no real confidence that any of those three will be meaningfully outstanding.
So, then I go to what I'd like to see. We NEED to show improvement. Even if it's not postseason, we need to outperform expectations. That means showing at least a bit of 1) and 2). If we can do that, then we can build for future years. But that's a multi-year plan. I think we can do that, but it'll be slow and probably still painful.
On a loosely related note...I got a little sad when I saw that Ekey buzzer beater video and immediately thought "those were the good ole days." That's how we've fallen. That was a 20 win season. WITH Starks, Cosby, and Ekey and (lack of) Paul. 20 wins! Remember what that was like?? I'm longing for those days??? :tsk:
Points 1 through 3 should be put on a poster and posted in the Illini locker room this season. Great material for the team to use as motivation. Someone make sure Ayo sees point 2 about his comparison to Mark Smith... LOL!
1). What proven high level talent did we have returning last year? Black would have been the closet. Finke? Lucas? I'll take my chances on Ayo and Tevian being able to produce. Trent would be considered a higher level returning talent than Leron was last year, IMO.
2) Disagree our interior defense gets worse. A lot of our interior defensive problems were caused by defensive holes on the perimeter. I see our permiter defense improving, which will help our interior defense. We'll still get manhandled in the post, but we'll be better overall. If Ayo stays healthy, he will be better than Mark Smith. Pretty high certainty. His defense alone makes him better already. Easily saves us 10 points a game.
3) Coach won't have to coach them up. They just have to play their game and not be hesitant to run the offense.
The big question mark in my mind is team leadership. Something we sorely lacked last year. Will have to come from the youngsters obviously, with some help from AJ and Kipper. But DMW, TF and Ayo will be the core that needs to lead this team, and make this a vocal team. If you saw the USA games, you saw how vocal Ayo was when he was on the floor.
Yes, we need a rim protector, serviceable 5, blah, blah, blah, hashed, re-hashed ad nauseam.
To say our season is riding on that is just not true. Our coach has said so.
Interwebz coaches vs. Actual college head coach?
Who you got?
Said we didn't need to be big. Said we could play small. Not sure if he said we could win that way.
I will be somewhat surprised if Trent isn't one of the more vocal leaders on this team...both on and off court
ILL in IA
- Iowa City
IF we have Kane and Giorgi and possibly a 5th year big, I feel the C- grade can be achieved just by being serviceable and not crazy foul prone. And if they are foul prone, we have 15 fouls to throw at them.
And I know I am simplifying this a ton, but just asking a big to set a screen in the pinch post and roll to the rim and catch a lob would be amazing on offense, and not asking too much right?
I'm looking for the silver lining here, but the bar you set is low, I think we can hit it
Tevo
- Wilmette, IL
The one thing we CAN'T seem to do is move forwards!
sbillini
- st petersburg, fl
Thank for reinforcing my point! :thumb:
If I had said exactly a year ago that MS would be Jaylon Tate level in his first year, I bet a majority of the board would have made the exact same comment above with the names changed. Too bad I can't make $ on that bet.
Equal to what we have today. I'd argue that TF is the only bonafide and proven B1G starter we have.
Outside of MS, our perimeter D wasn't bad. We led the B1G in steals/game. You don't do that with bad perimeter D. People find it easy to forget that TJL and MA were both very good at D. So if your koolaid helps you believe with high certainty we'll be better at perimeter D when we were already pretty good and lost our two best defenders, then please share some of it with me!
If I had said exactly a year ago that MS would be Jaylon Tate level in his first year, I bet a majority of the board would have made the exact same comment above with the names changed. Too bad I can't make $ on that bet.
Equal to what we have today. I'd argue that TF is the only bonafide and proven B1G starter we have.
Outside of MS, our perimeter D wasn't bad. We led the B1G in steals/game. You don't do that with bad perimeter D. People find it easy to forget that TJL and MA were both very good at D. So if your koolaid helps you believe with high certainty we'll be better at perimeter D when we were already pretty good and lost our two best defenders, then please share some of it with me!
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Peoria Illini
- Peoria, IL
I'd add the development of Kipper at the end of the year to TF as a bonafide B1G starter as well.
TJL and Alstork were very good on-the-ball defenders. Alstork got lost off the ball quite a bit, and TJL did a little, which is why they would switch Alstork to stay on the ball as much as possible. Overall defender, TJL was better near the end of the season than Alstork, IMO. Also include Finke got beat quite a bit on off the ball as well, as he was pulled out at times and got caught ball-watching.
Yes, our perimeter defense will be better. AJ, DMW, TF will all be improved from last year and adding in Ayo and Feliz will result in a better perimeter D.
I agree. But that's dependent on the fifth year big.
If it's just Kane and Giorgi, it's gonna take a lot of work to hide them and we're probably going to have some games where their mistakes and inexperience just gobble up our opportunity to stay in it.
And if it's just Giorgi we are screwed.
Joel Goodson
- ties will be resolved
Offense isn't the thing here from our 5s. Anything they provide us on O is a plus. Yes, if one or more is serviceable offensively that's a big plus.
The crux of the biscuit is D. Yeah, we may have 15 fouls, but that's no way to get through life (or a season). We need a rim protector, plain and simple. Otherwise, teams will feast. I doubt if Bez is that guy. At the risk of sounding like a broken record (remember them?), a lot is riding on Kane.
Add a good 5th year (Cunningham), get Kane eligible and we may skate.
sbillini
- st petersburg, fl
I hope you're right! I think you're wrong.
KN didn't show much of a trajectory last year to give me confidence that he would blossom to be a B1G caliber starter this year. He had flashes, but inconsistent. I think he has that talent (like most here do), but unclear if he can put it all together. Last year he at least had a strong wing on the other side of the court sucking up some defensive pressure. Unclear if that'll be the case this year.
As for perimeter D - sure, I guess you can be right. But just looking at totality of the evidence we have in front of us, everything you're saying is hopes. there are more things that can go wrong than right in your conclusion. And you have to handicap that as such.
I'll say again, I think we will be a better team next year overall. But I have little confidence it'll be meaningfully better (i.e. postseason) unless we show flashes of brilliance (i.e. overachieve) that we did not last year.
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I've read nothing but positivity towards him returning in August. A personal quote of his did leave a little doubt (something along the lines of the current plan is to be back by August).
Honestly, I would say he's safe to return, especially since he reclassed (believe it was a class he took in Africa that didn't count for something they thought it would), but then again stranger things.
Talked to Coach Underwood on Saturday said just a timing issue with a transcript not anyone's fault and he will be enrolled and just fine come August. Said just one of those things and besides he would miss summer workouts he had no worries about it.
I think we are good with forwards. We just need some centers!
POTD so far.
GB will take care of it.
Peoria Illini
- Peoria, IL
I know Cunningham is a good sized guy, but he's only 6'7", correct? He may help with interior defense, but can you consider him a rim protector?
Foggy Notion
- San Francisco
There are literally zero.
(If anyone would like to prove me wrong, that's a case I'd be interested to hear)
Well one is just his first name... dont think its crazy to use either one.
Real question is, who would still want Weber here?
mattcoldagelli
- The Transfer Portal with Do Not Contact Tag
While this is not true, there *are* people on this board who are incapable of grasping any stance other than "the coach is 100% right about all things" or "the coach is absolutely wrong about everything, fire him and bring back his predecessor."
I wonder what other section of the newspaper they're absorbing that forced dichotomy from? :hand:
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