skyIdub
Winged Warrior
We all know who you got. :thumb:
We're turning on each other Lord of the Flies style. Not surprising, but I do find it amusing
I try to look bigger picture. And, when I think of basic questions, I have a hard time being confident that we'll be a materially better team that'll challenge for a post-season. Sorry, as much as I want to, I can't. And I think you need to drink some seriously spiked orange koolaid to do so. Some basic questions:
1. Is our raw roster talent going to be better next year vs. last? Unsure, but I'd bet not. Outside of TF, we have no proven high level talent returning next year. DMW and KN might step up. So might AJ. But that's yet to be seen. Feel free to bet on that, but one needs to understand that's what you're betting on and that's not what you'll necessarily see and have to discount it accordingly. And all the other talent we have is completely untested unproven. Most have never played a college game - I don't know how you can say with any sort of certainty that they'll be better than what we lose (discussed more below)
2. Where will our strengths/weaknesses lie, and how does that change vs last year? I'd say our weaknesses (inside, esp on D) get worse. Our strength (wings/guards) may or may not get better. We may get raw talent (again, it's a "may" and not definitive being they're ALL new to the team outside of TF and maybe BMW/KN). But, again, this is a larger unknown than even last year. Saying with confidence that Ayo will be better than Mark Smith last year is a lot more uncertain than many on these boards are assuming, IMO. Yea yea, style of play, playing basketball longer, yadda yadda yadda, rationalize away. But those are still so variable case by case, that there's nothing, IMO to make me say with any sort of certainty that'll be the case.
3. Can our coaching "coach em up" and make them play above their talent? Maybe. Last year I'd say it wasn't the case. I think they played largely at their talent level. You could argue the SFA days maybe he did. OSU potentially, though he had a bunch of talent. I think this is a toss-up. But after last year, I'm less convinced BU will be able to get them to play significantly better than their talent level quickly. I think he's a "system" guy and that system is not easy to play/learn. Losing as much experience in that system as we did, I think it'll be harder for it to really click next year.
4. People don't talk about this enough (undertandably) - how will ILL's competitors fare? Sports is usually a relative game. You don't have to be "good", just better than your competition. There's a distinction. Here I can't say with confidence one way or another. I think at the margin the conference will be a bit weaker (MSU losing experience, Michigan too). But OSU, Indiana, potentially Neb may be better. Again, no real confidence either way.
So overall, I think we may be a bit better next year IF 1) our talent plays out how we hope or 2) coaching is able to get them to play better than their talent is or 3) the rest of the conference is weaker. If we get all 3 to some degree then we have a shot at the postseason. If we get homeruns on 1 of the three, then maybe we do then too. But I have no real confidence that any of those three will be meaningfully outstanding.
So, then I go to what I'd like to see. We NEED to show improvement. Even if it's not postseason, we need to outperform expectations. That means showing at least a bit of 1) and 2). If we can do that, then we can build for future years. But that's a multi-year plan. I think we can do that, but it'll be slow and probably still painful.
On a loosely related note...I got a little sad when I saw that Ekey buzzer beater video and immediately thought "those were the good ole days." That's how we've fallen. That was a 20 win season. WITH Starks, Cosby, and Ekey and (lack of) Paul. 20 wins! Remember what that was like?? I'm longing for those days??? :tsk:
Yes, we need a rim protector, serviceable 5, blah, blah, blah, hashed, re-hashed ad nauseam.
To say our season is riding on that is just not true. Our coach has said so.
Interwebz coaches vs. Actual college head coach?
Who you got?
Points 1 through 3 should be put on a poster and posted in the Illini locker room this season. Great material for the team to use as motivation. Someone make sure Ayo sees point 2 about his comparison to Mark Smith... LOL!
1). What proven high level talent did we have returning last year? Black would have been the closet. Finke? Lucas? I'll take my chances on Ayo and Tevian being able to produce. Trent would be considered a higher level returning talent than Leron was last year, IMO.
2) Disagree our interior defense gets worse. A lot of our interior defensive problems were caused by defensive holes on the perimeter. I see our permiter defense improving, which will help our interior defense. We'll still get manhandled in the post, but we'll be better overall. If Ayo stays healthy, he will be better than Mark Smith. Pretty high certainty. His defense alone makes him better already. Easily saves us 10 points a game.
3) Coach won't have to coach them up. They just have to play their game and not be hesitant to run the offense.
The big question mark in my mind is team leadership. Something we sorely lacked last year. Will have to come from the youngsters obviously, with some help from AJ and Kipper. But DMW, TF and Ayo will be the core that needs to lead this team, and make this a vocal team. If you saw the USA games, you saw how vocal Ayo was when he was on the floor.
Or Giorgi. Or some other big yet to be named. Or some combination of all of the above.
If we can just find a way to get to a D+/C- at the 5 position, we can have a chance in games against real teams.
If not, get ready to watch Nick Ward drop 50 on us.
Lament all you want, we are moving forward.
Someone make sure Ayo sees point 2 about his comparison to Mark Smith... LOL!
1). What proven high level talent did we have returning last year? Black would have been the closet. Finke? Lucas? I'll take my chances on Ayo and Tevian being able to produce.
2) Disagree our interior defense gets worse. A lot of our interior defensive problems were caused by defensive holes on the perimeter. I see our permiter defense improving, which will help our interior defense. We'll still get manhandled in the post, but we'll be better overall. If Ayo stays healthy, he will be better than Mark Smith. Pretty high certainty. His defense alone makes him better already. Easily saves us 10 points a game.
Equal to what we have today. I'd argue that TF is the only bonafide and proven B1G starter we have.
Outside of MS, our perimeter D wasn't bad. We led the B1G in steals/game. You don't do that with bad perimeter D. People find it easy to forget that TJL and MA were both very good at D. So if your koolaid helps you believe with high certainty we'll be better at perimeter D when we were already pretty good and lost our two best defenders, then pass over that koolaid.
IF we have Kane and Giorgi and possibly a 5th year big, I feel the C- grade can be achieved just by being serviceable and not crazy foul prone. And if they are foul prone, we have 15 fouls to throw at them.
IF we have Kane and Giorgi and possibly a 5th year big, I feel the C- grade can be achieved just by being serviceable and not crazy foul prone. And if they are foul prone, we have 15 fouls to throw at them.
And I know I am simplifying this a ton, but just asking a big to set a screen in the pinch post and roll to the rim and catch a lob would be amazing on offense, and not asking too much right?
I'm looking for the silver lining here, but the bar you set is low, I think we can hit it
I'd add the development of Kipper at the end of the year to TF as a bonafide B1G starter as well.
Yes, our perimeter defense will be better. AJ, DMW, TF will all be improved from last year and adding in Ayo and Feliz will result in a better perimeter D.
Anyone know what the prospects are for Kane being eligible? Not up to speed on that one, so apologies if there's been news previously.
The one thing we CAN'T seem to do is move forwards!
I think we are good with forwards. We just need some centers!
Can we all come together to agree on something? Are we going to go with Giorgi or Bez? 2 abbreviations for 1 kid is 1 too many.
Offense isn't the thing here from our 5s. Anything they provide us on O is a plus. Yes, if one or more is serviceable offensively that's a big plus.
The crux of the biscuit is D. Yeah, we may have 15 fouls, but that's no way to get through life (or a season). We need a rim protector, plain and simple. Otherwise, teams will feast. I doubt if Bez is that guy. At the risk of sounding like a broken record (remember them?), a lot is riding on Kane.
Add a good 5th year (Cunningham), get Kane eligible and we may skate.
Can we all come together to agree on something? Are we going to go with Giorgi or Bez? 2 abbreviations for 1 kid is 1 too many.
I think there are people on this board that would rather have Groce or want him to still be the head coach at Illinois.
Well one is just his first name... dont think its crazy to use either one.Can we all come together to agree on something? Are we going to go with Giorgi or Bez? 2 abbreviations for 1 kid is 1 too many.
I think there are people on this board that would rather have Groce or want him to still be the head coach at Illinois.....comical
Real question is, who would still want Weber here?
I think there are people on this board that would rather have Groce or want him to still be the head coach at Illinois.....comical
While this is not true, there *are* people on this board who are incapable of grasping any stance other than "the coach is 100% right about all things" or "the coach is absolutely wrong about everything, fire him and bring back his predecessor."