sacraig
- The desert
Good thing the spread means literally nothing about how good or bad a basketball team is. It's just a measure of how bookies think the game will go.
So... Yawn.
Illinois 81, Nebraska 71 Postgame
So... Yawn.
I’ve been thinking about it. If Trent hadn’t taken a back seat to Ayo for the good of the team he would have been a top 5 scorer without the 5th year. I don’t mind him getting a 5th year to move up the lists.
I like the idea of a separate location for honoring the glue-guy dogs like Trent (if he doesn't meet any of the criteria for a rafter position.)
sacraig
- The desert
They could just name an effort type award after him. Like Matto points.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Frazier defense award. Given out to the best defensive player on the team each year. It started with Chester. Continued with Trent.
chiefini
- Rockford, Illinois
Official. Take from FightingIllini.com site.
It's a measure of how a team performs against expectations. We have underperformed relative to our expectations in 3 of 5 games against top 50 AdjT teams. I'm not including the AZ game because we played well, imo, despite not covering.
Do you have a problem with this statement: Illinois underperformed against Marquette, UTRGV, and Nebraska.
Because it's basically the same as what I said before, just without numbers.
If you just want to talk about real life wins and losses (seems like a good measure of how good or bad a team is), then I'll say that 2 of our 3 losses and our 2 ugliest wins came against AdjT top 50 teams.
sacraig
- The desert
It's against the expectations of bookies, who are out to make money, not accurate predictions. Bookies set the line based somewhat on what is expected to happen but also based on what bettors think will happen and are therefore willing to bet on. The spread even moves in the days an hours prior to tip off, and that's not because the teams abilities are somehow changing in real time; it's because the bookies are reacting to how bettors are spending. It means literally nothing.
I have no problem saying we underperformed in those games, but it has literally nothing to do with whether we covered the spread or not.
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I am gonna say it was because he has a way to go defending but he is gonna be the best of them and hopefully still here
Penn is gonna be a quality win by then, if we pull it off
Just a happy coincidence. Got it.
I don't really gamble but my hunch is that spreads are at least kind of informed by analytics rather than the gut feeling of a bookie. There's some market correction but I doubt that's a big factor in regular season cbb. I don't know.
Anyway, was just reporting a potential trend I saw in the data. Carry on.
His brother is on the team, it's going to be a while before he's done there Iam afraid
Your app may not work...it was there every time I checked. The scores sometimes have a long add mixed in also giving the appearance that all scores were listed above the add.
sacraig
- The desert
Ah, yes. Hunches. The epitome of informed conclusions.
The spread is partially informed by analytics but moves around based on bettor behavior. It ultimately is therefore not really based on any real performance expectation based on math or statistics any more than it is based on fan perception. That probably means the spread falls somewhere in the general ballpark of the true 50/50 outcome of a game, but it's not accurate to within a point or two like you are treating it. It's really all about the bookies trying to capture as many risky bets as possible so they can make money.
ChazzReinhold
Mom! The Meatloaf!
The spread is set to get equal bets on either side of the line. That is why the spread adjusts as bets come in.
There are a few guys in the rafters solely by dint of being voted into the Illini “All-Century” team — Battle, Anderson, Thomas, great Illini players who weren’t All-Americans — which Frazier and other “next century” players don’t have a chance to be on. I think the criteria need to be reconsidered to give opportunity to special “next century” players who don’t make it onto an All-American list.
The Galloping Ghost
- Washington, DC
My hope for the banner Trent and Monte get is National Champions.
Luther was a consensus second team All-American, thus meeting one of the criteria for rafters recognition.
I don't think you win if the freshmen had gotten many more ticks. RJ is lacking in defense but he will get there. Just my opinion.
Agreed. I just hope I live long enough to see it.
Well, if we covered another two of those games, we would be 3-2 vs the spread.
Perhaps we lose the two where we don’t cover, but hey, at least we covered more than not…..
Would that be a preference?
All I care about is the win, and in the BIG 10 every win is gold.
Seems many posters do their best to try to identify negatives when we should be thrilled being 5-0 in the conference.
Enjoy the ride and let’s hope it continues.
Bigtex
- DFW
Dw is regularly chasing his man - meaning he can’t keep him in front of him. DW is a tough kid who does lots of things well but far from a lock down defender
IMO he plays too many minutes on this team.
Someone else suggested Williams playing time will be reduced when curbelo returns. I tend to agree.
Our next group of recruits play above the rim.(Roger’s and Harris) One aspect this team doesn’t have on offense or defense.
Good point. And now that you say that, I know many have suggested bringing Belo off of the bench when he comes back, which at first glance I think is a little crazy. But wonder if Belo wouldn’t be a better fit with CH and Omar than with Kofi and the other starting 5.
Basically would have 2 different offenses. A 4 out offense with our starters, and then a ball screen dominant offense with our bench. Would think that would be pretty hard for opponents to prepare for and we could really dictate matchups.
Get well soon Belo! You can tell he’s chomping at the bit to get in there.