It's time to start collecting some quad 1 wins. 3 of our next 4 are quad 1 games, with a quad 3 game against Nebraska sandwiched in. This tOSU game would be our 3rd best win on the resume, after Texas and UCLA.
Pregame: Illinois vs Ohio State, Tuesday, January 24th, 6:00pm CT, ESPN
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As for style of play, we have only played 1 B1G game above 70 possessions. tOSU doesn't mind playing fast, their past 3 games have been 70+ possesions. Hopefully this is a free flowing game, we can get out and run, get the crowd into it, and have some fun. Not many of those types of games in the B1G this year.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
If Illini go 11-9 in conference, there is no way that they are on the bubble and would need to win a couple games in B1G Tournament (one win would move into the complete lock category). As of right now, Illini are not on the bubble (safely in as of now). I really do not know where this prediction came from, but it does not seem logical or built in current reality.Looking to me like were going to need to win a couple of games in the Big Ten Tournament.
This team needs "to show up every time."
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To be clear, a 20 win Illini team should be a near lock to make the tourney regardless of what happens in the B1G Tourney. The wins against UCLA and Texas are major difference makers, and the magnitude of some of the losses does not make a huge difference at the end of the day. If Illini avoid any terrible losses (i.e. MN/NEB, the resume will look quite good if we can get to 19-20 wins). Of course, getting to 22 wins or more would be ideal, but as of right now, Illini are in a very good position.
So your thinkng ging 6 and 6 dont the stretch in the Big 10 gets us to 19 and 12 and gets us in.??? Even before the Big 10 tourney????
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
I believe that a 20 win Illini regular season (7-5 down the stretch) would be a near lock going into the B1G tourney. Going 19-12 (6-6 down stretch), I believe one win in the B1G Tourney may be necessary to ease any concerns.
I think the magic number to get into the tourney without being squarely on bubble is about 20 wins. Anything more than that would be gravy in terms of seeding. As I said, the UCLA and Texas wins will loom large if the team is able to only get to 19-20 wins. I think 19 wins total is when the team may be sweating on Selection Sunday, but I believe should still be able to get in without being one of the last 4 in.
Of course, we would all love the team to get to 22+ wins, but to make tourney, 22 wins is not needed. Also, 22 wins is a 100% lock to make tournament, no clue how the prediction showed 91%.
Unfortunately, I am going with O. State this game but not by much. They seem to be more desperate and they really shot well their last game. They are waking up in Columbus. I don't know what we are doing. Hopefully just a little tired and under the weather. We will see Tuesday. Go Illini!
Agree! Also difficult for families with high school athletes. We had no Sunday home games this year, and our 4 Saturday home games are 11am, 3pm, 12:30pm, and 1pm. Only the 3pm Saturday game (and I'm hoping the 1pm game) work as Saturday morning practices, which I imagine all high schools have, made the rest difficult.
Offensively OSU is elite and they have many guys who can beat you in a multitude of ways. Good news is we have the clear advantage in the post which I think will make the perimeter defense that much more suffocating. OSU also tends to take a lot of "tough" shots. When those go in they really are tough to beat.
All of the talk about 2 days off play game. What do you think is going to happen in the Big or the NCAA assuming they even make it. If they can't take the heat get out of the kitchen. Did they come to play or sit on the couch! It appears to me that in some games Penn State, Northwestern, Missouri and Indiana they decide to sit on the couch.
And you sit on the couch typing that out. Calm down brother, it’s a game. It’s not about winning or losing it’s about supporting these young men who chose to represent the University of Illinois. If you don’t want to be apart of it, you can leave.
The point is other teams are playing under same conditions! I don't hear them crying about it.
No argument if playing under the same conditions, but that was not true with IU game. They had 5 days between games to our three - more time for players to recover and more time for coaches to game plan.. In the NCAA, everyone in sort of the same boat except the B1G is the latest conference tourney which can put B1G teams as a disadvantage rest wise going into the tourney.
Actually Tom Izzo said much the same thing and pointed out that the NCAA is so worried about the care of players and yet has squeezed the season by several days to get all the games in. He and Brad pointed out the exact same things in different interviews. Wait until Northwestern has to fulfill the byes that they got due to Covid outbreak.
I'll check in with my wife to see if her connection gets any Intel this week...
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
You do realize that almost every team has a game like Illinois had against IU. The way schedules shake out over a long season, a team may be at a disadvantage in prep and rest time compared to their opponent. It is more about the recovery the team has than anything else after taking one on the chin. In fact, the Illini have advantage in this upcoming game with rest and prep time over OSU. If the Illini come out unprepared and play sloppy in this game, then I would agree that there are serious issues with the team; however, the way the Illini looked over the 4 game winning streak gives me reason to believe that the team will come out of this one game as a small blip in the radar.
Come March, everything equals out and each team will be playing under similar circumstances of rest, but unbalanced scheduling in regular season causes some mismatches (see IU game). This happens every year at some point for almost every team. Take the loss and move forward.
Your last sentence is utter malarkey. The Indiana game is nowhere near comparable to the PSU, NW, and Mizzou games. There was utter discombobulation and gelling issues within the team during that stretch (as stated by insiders, which seems to have been corrected to a large extent in past 2-3 weeks), whereas in the IU game, the Illini did not look sharp and seemed a step slow (tiredness, sickness, etc.), but the effort was there. The negativity from some of you on this board is ridiculous. If I did not know better, I would think that this team is 10-9 vs 13-6.
The next week will tell a lot about this team, but please do not make blanket statements that this team doesn't care or is "sitting on the couch". We are watching different games if that is your ultimate take.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
We're currently a 6/7 seed on BracketMatrix - still early of course, but that tells you something. Compare our team sheet to a bubblier team like Maryland. The Q3/Q4 is identical (8-0), Q2 is similar (3-2 vs. 2-1), but our Q1 wins stand out versus theirs.
IMO we look a similar in some ways to Alabama last year from a selection standpoint. Here's their team sheet. They ended at 19-12 in the regular season, .500 in conference play - exactly where we'd be if we finish 6-6 - and lost in the first round of the SEC tourney. They were a 6 seed.
Our best wins aren't as good and we wouldn't have 9 Q1 wins, but I think we'd be solidly in even at 19-13, something like a 9 seed.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Agree 100% with the bolded. We didn't look good by any means against IU, but it was not the same kind of showing as MIZNOZ/PSU/NU.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
I don't think there's anything hidden. tOSU is a better team*, despite their recent skid.
IL-UW was #40 vs #51 in KenPom, but Wahl being out pushed the line quite a bit higher. IL-MSU was #24 vs #42. IL-IU was #19 vs #28. All of those are consistent with home court advantage (3 points) and change.
Tomorrow's game is #29 hosting #19. Makes sense that we'd be favored by less than home-court advantage.
*Edit: should clarify the bolded to say "probably a better team". There is always uncertainty in the rankings, teams get better/worse as the season goes along, and the difference between #19 and #28 is pretty small.
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Kenpom difference per 70 possessions is 1.5 points in favor of them. Add 3 points to us for home court and then it's 1.5 points for us.
Yeah, our wins over UCLA and Texas are two wins that most teams in our range of seed won’t have. My hope is that keeps us off the bubble even if we finish somewhat poorly.
JFC, muting you for being a relentlessly negative troll.
Why don't you pick a new hobby that doesn't involve any of the rest of us?
You got to be kidding me. At this level it is 100% about winning. Especially now since players are being paid to do a job and that’s winning.
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Let see in the NCAAs, if we win 4 convincingly and then lay an egg in game 5 like our last stretch, that means we embarrassed ourselves in the Final 4. I'm OK with that.
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