1/24 Bracketology

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#52      
If we did this, we would be a 3 seed
Maybe if we finish the season with only 1 more loss. That would put us at 24-7 (15-5). But last year that was only good enough for a 4 seed. And this year's version of the Big Ten isn't as strong. Or at least the opportunities for marquee wins are fewer.

I was just saying I think we can make it through the month of February with 1 or 2 more losses. Then we'd still have Purdue and Michigan to end the season, neither of which are matchups I feel good about right now.

My best guess:
15-5 = 4 seed
14-6 = 5 seed
13-7 = 6 or 7 seed
12-8 = 8 or 9 seed
11-9 = 10 or 11
10-10 = bubble
 
#53      
Disagree. It just means that the B1G is not really top heavy. It is Purdue, then a pack of 9-11 teams, rounded out by Nebraska and Minnesota. If B1G was that horrible, 10 teams would not be projected to make the field.

Though Michigan and Iowa do have a terrible Q4 loss at home to CMU and Eastern Illinois, respectively.
The Big 10 is horrible per Big 10 standards. Like as bad as its been in maybe a decade.

By the way, anybody with Wisconsin in the field ahead of Northwestern is a joke. Northwestern should be inneasily right now and Wisconsin shouldn't even be sniffing the tournament. Resumes aren't close.
 
#54      
Yes, and actually recently for 7 seed (first year under Groce in 2013). 6 seed in 1993 and 1997 under Henson and Kruger, respectively.

2 seed in 1984 (before expanded tourney); 3 seed in 1987 and 1988.


Based on what I see going back to 1980, we have not been the 10 seed in the tourney, and of course 13-16 seed (since that is not really possible).
I created a chart of IL seeds per year/coach in wikipedia a while back.

 
#55      
Can't believe we are discussing whether or not we'll make the dance.
A number of good teams have lost 3, 4 and 5 games in a row against Big 10 competition
Hit one of those stretches during the final 12 games, and one could easily be NIT bound.
 
#56      
Sat, Jan 28at Wisconsin2:00pm FOX
Tue, Jan 31Nebraska6:00pm BTN
Sat, Feb 4at Iowa1:30pm FOX
Tue, Feb 7Minnesota7:30pm BTN
Sat, Feb 11Rutgers1:00pm FS1
Tue, Feb 14at Penn State6:00pm ESPN/2/U
Sat, Feb 18at Indiana11:00am ESPN/2
Thu, Feb 23Northwestern8:00pm BTN
Sun, Feb 26at Ohio State11:00am CBS
Thu, Mar 2Michigan6:00pm ESPN
Sun, Mar 5at Purdue11:30am FOX

11 remaining games (schedule gets tougher as we progress thru the season):
3-1 Next four; we need one road win to get there
2-2 Middle four; four tough games here, and two quality wins required to finish at .500
1-2 Final three games; Michigan at home is the most likely win

6-5 To finish out the season, leaves us at 20-11 overall heading into the BTT.

2-1 in the Tournament leaves us at 22-12 and probably a 6 or 7 seed.

Great breakdown! You can see the margin of error is small.

A pessimist could see us losing all road games left, which is very possible since they are all tough. Plus, after seeing TJD torch us, you could easily see Dickinson torching us as well and we lose to Michigan. That would put us at 17-14, and really sweating in the BTT.

OTOH, if we can find some consistency, an optimist like me could see us winning the bolded plus more. Win a tough home game against Rutgers and steal 1 more on the road (probably Iowa or tOSU). That would put us at 22-9 entering the BTT, and 13-7 in the B1G. Probably enough for a 4/5 seed!
 
#57      
Sat, Jan 28at Wisconsin2:00pm FOX
Tue, Jan 31Nebraska6:00pm BTN
Sat, Feb 4at Iowa1:30pm FOX
Tue, Feb 7Minnesota7:30pm BTN
Sat, Feb 11Rutgers1:00pm FS1
Tue, Feb 14at Penn State6:00pm ESPN/2/U
Sat, Feb 18at Indiana11:00am ESPN/2
Thu, Feb 23Northwestern8:00pm BTN
Sun, Feb 26at Ohio State11:00am CBS
Thu, Mar 2Michigan6:00pm ESPN
Sun, Mar 5at Purdue11:30am FOX

11 remaining games (schedule gets tougher as we progress thru the season):
3-1 Next four; we need one road win to get there
2-2 Middle four; four tough games here, and two quality wins required to finish at .500
1-2 Final three games; Michigan at home is the most likely win

6-5 To finish out the season, leaves us at 20-11 overall heading into the BTT.

2-1 in the Tournament leaves us at 22-12 and probably a 6 or 7 seed.
Very helpful. Thanks! :)
 
#58      

DeonThomas

South Carolina
Maybe if we finish the season with only 1 more loss. That would put us at 24-7 (15-5). But last year that was only good enough for a 4 seed. And this year's version of the Big Ten isn't as strong. Or at least the opportunities for marquee wins are fewer.

I was just saying I think we can make it through the month of February with 1 or 2 more losses. Then we'd still have Purdue and Michigan to end the season, neither of which are matchups I feel good about right now.

My best guess:
15-5 = 4 seed
14-6 = 5 seed
13-7 = 6 or 7 seed
12-8 = 8 or 9 seed
11-9 = 10 or 11
10-10 = bubble
The ultimate optimist:
I would argue if we're fortunate enough to go 10-1 to finish the season ---- thus having won 15 of our last 17 entering the BTT --- we'll be Top 10 nationally and easily a 3-seed at 24-7. We'd finish 2nd to Purdue and get the #2 seed in the BTT.
 
#60      

Illini2010-11

Sugar Grove
The Big 10 is horrible per Big 10 standards. Like as bad as its been in maybe a decade.

By the way, anybody with Wisconsin in the field ahead of Northwestern is a joke. Northwestern should be inneasily right now and Wisconsin shouldn't even be sniffing the tournament. Resumes aren't close.
Based on what standard exactly? Only one team being ranked?

When only two teams in the league (unless winning B1G Tourney) have no shot of making tourney at end of January, it speaks volumes for the quality and depth of the league. We are still looking at 8-9 teams making tourney from the B1G. That is not horrible in any sense. Horrible would be the ACC or Pac 12 in a comparative sense.

I personally don't judge quality of league by number of teams ranked. That typically means the bottom half of the league is a joke.
 
#61      
Still think the magic number is 10 wins. .500 conference record plus our non con resume and we are a lock for the tourney.

Which is why the win on Tuesday was a sneaky big win. Guaranteed us 5-5 through our first half of the schedule. I realize Wisconsin is having their struggles but as we’ve seen recently with IU and us just a few weeks ago when we started 0-3, a team with their back against the wall can be dangerous, Glad we don’t have to win in Kohl to guarantee 5-5.

Of course I want more, but let’s just get to 10 wins and then let the chips fall where they may.
 
#62      
I'm sorry but we have Michigan at home and they have been awful all year. Not like we won't be heavy favorites in that game
I thought the same thing about IU. Since Jan 1, Michigan has been better than we have according to Torvik. And they have a talented, upperclass big that could cause some problems. Just don't like the match up.
 
#64      
If we did this, we would be a 3 seed
Two or fewer losses for the remainder of the season would be a very strong run. Likely result in us finishing 2nd in the BIG. Non conference wins over Texas and UCLA would be the difference as compared to last year. 3 seed could happen. I think we end up with a few more losses though. Probably going to end up with a 6/7 seed. Hoping the team is truly built for the tournament. I’d take an Elite 8 finish over winning the BIG.
 
#65      
The ultimate optimist:
I would argue if we're fortunate enough to go 10-1 to finish the season ---- thus having won 15 of our last 17 entering the BTT --- we'll be Top 10 nationally and easily a 3-seed at 24-7. We'd finish 2nd to Purdue and get the #2 seed in the BTT.
Yeah, in the morning light, I would agree with you and would probably drop everything down a seed line (or move up depending how you want to say it) from my original guess.

As a reference, Michigan was an 11 seed last year at 17-14. We can probably climb as high as a 3 and even at 9-11, would still have a shot at getting in.
 
#66      
I'm sorry but we have Michigan at home and they have been awful all year. Not like we won't be heavy favorites in that game
Michigan's B1G record is deceitful b/c they have had a fairly easy schedule so far.
 
#67      

sacraig

The desert
Maybe if we finish the season with only 1 more loss. That would put us at 24-7 (15-5). But last year that was only good enough for a 4 seed. And this year's version of the Big Ten isn't as strong. Or at least the opportunities for marquee wins are fewer.

I was just saying I think we can make it through the month of February with 1 or 2 more losses. Then we'd still have Purdue and Michigan to end the season, neither of which are matchups I feel good about right now.

My best guess:
15-5 = 4 seed
14-6 = 5 seed
13-7 = 6 or 7 seed
12-8 = 8 or 9 seed
11-9 = 10 or 11
10-10 = bubble
The entire season has been a bloodbath for basically all tournament-caliber teams. I don't think we can use last year as a guide because I think the average overall record in the NCAA is going to be worse this year.
 
#68      
I thought the same thing about IU. Since Jan 1, Michigan has been better than we have according to Torvik. And they have a talented, upperclass big that could cause some problems. Just don't like the match up.
I think you hit the nail on the head. With the exception of Purdue and Minnesota at the bottom, I think these games are about match-ups rather than relative conference standings.
 
#69      

Bigtex

DFW
I'm sorry but we have Michigan at home and they have been awful all year. Not like we won't be heavy favorites in that game
while Michigan is 5-3 in conference a relatively easy first 8 games.

Last 12 games are more challenging - final 4 and/or final 7 games look like several losses.
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#70      
At this point, my base case is more of the same (mostly good play, but inconsistent). 6 or 7 wins seems likely, with @Purdue looking pretty unlikely. I think that's good enough for a 6 or 7 seed. The team has a lot of quality in the schedule, so the relatively high losses won't hurt them nearly as much as it looks at a glance.

That said, as a fan, I just want to see more consistency. They're not a great 3 pt shooting team, so unless Goode comes back and on form, I think they'll still have stretches where they're challenged offensively. Overall, I think the team was over-hyped going into the season, but considering injuries to Melendez and Goode, and Skyy washing out, I think the team has done well on balance. Some really disappointing games, but some excellent ones as well.
 
#73      
I thought the same thing about IU. Since Jan 1, Michigan has been better than we have according to Torvik. And they have a talented, upperclass big that could cause some problems. Just don't like the match up.
Okay, but this is the same Torvik that had Purdue 5th in the BigTen right?

TORVIK Pre-Season B1G

1.)Indiana

2.)Illinois

3.)Michigan

4.)Michigan State

5.)Purdue

6.)Iowa

7.)Maryland

8.)Rutgers

9.)Ohio State

10.)Wisconsin

11.)Penn State

12.)Nebraska

* Compare that with the present standings at the bottom of the post

* Yes, it was preseason. I get that…nobody gets that exactly right…like EVER…and yes, the season is far from over…
* AND I very much appreciate the degree of straight mathematical objectivity you can get from BT’s and Kenpom’s approach.

Predictability-wise…he’s 100 times better than Dionne Warwick and all her psychic friends put together. He’s several notches above the local weather man…but at the end of the day he’s still a: fairly effective, prestigious, esteemed…..bean 🫘 counter.

I’m not meaning to pick on you; and I dunno where you’re at on this exactly.
I just think it’s dangerous to put too much stock in any one thing. AP…Torvik…etc.

I agree with you about Michigan
potentially being a difficult match up for us tho…for sure. We’ll see.

1E91224F-3B11-4C68-924B-E633DD5B8F47.jpeg
 
#74      
Okay, but this is the same Torvik that had Purdue 5th in the BigTen right?

TORVIK Pre-Season B1G

1.)Indiana

2.)Illinois

3.)Michigan

4.)Michigan State

5.)Purdue

6.)Iowa

7.)Maryland

8.)Rutgers

9.)Ohio State

10.)Wisconsin

11.)Penn State

12.)Nebraska

* Compare that with the present standings at the bottom of the post

* Yes, it was preseason. I get that…nobody gets that exactly right…like EVER…and yes, the season is far from over…
* AND I very much appreciate the degree of straight mathematical objectivity you can get from BT’s and Kenpom’s approach.

Predictability-wise…he’s 100 times better than Dionne Warwick and all her psychic friends put together. He’s several notches above the local weather man…but at the end of the day he’s still a: fairly effective, prestigious, esteemed…..bean 🫘 counter.

I’m not meaning to pick on you; and I dunno where you’re at on this exactly.
I just think it’s dangerous to put too much stock in any one thing. AP…Torvik…etc.

I agree with you about Michigan
potentially being a difficult match up for us tho…for sure. We’ll see.

View attachment 23118
Ha yeah, I don't disagree with anything you said. I was just saying that by at least one objective metric, Michigan hasn't been as much of a slouch lately as they were in non-con. And then, yeah, the matchup... I'm probably just shell-shocked from IU and TJD. But the matchup with Michigan, even at home, looks like a more difficult game to me than, say, @Iowa or @OSU.
 
#75      
Ha yeah, I don't disagree with anything you said. I was just saying that by at least one objective metric, Michigan hasn't been as much of a slouch lately as they were in non-con. And then, yeah, the matchup... I'm probably just shell-shocked from IU and TJD. But the matchup with Michigan, even at home, looks like a more difficult game to me than, say, @Iowa or @OSU.
Gotchya…fair point.
 
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