Bigtex
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Stand corrected3 seed
Stand corrected3 seed
Maybe if we finish the season with only 1 more loss. That would put us at 24-7 (15-5). But last year that was only good enough for a 4 seed. And this year's version of the Big Ten isn't as strong. Or at least the opportunities for marquee wins are fewer.If we did this, we would be a 3 seed
The Big 10 is horrible per Big 10 standards. Like as bad as its been in maybe a decade.Disagree. It just means that the B1G is not really top heavy. It is Purdue, then a pack of 9-11 teams, rounded out by Nebraska and Minnesota. If B1G was that horrible, 10 teams would not be projected to make the field.
Though Michigan and Iowa do have a terrible Q4 loss at home to CMU and Eastern Illinois, respectively.
I created a chart of IL seeds per year/coach in wikipedia a while back.Yes, and actually recently for 7 seed (first year under Groce in 2013). 6 seed in 1993 and 1997 under Henson and Kruger, respectively.
2 seed in 1984 (before expanded tourney); 3 seed in 1987 and 1988.
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Based on what I see going back to 1980, we have not been the 10 seed in the tourney, and of course 13-16 seed (since that is not really possible).
A number of good teams have lost 3, 4 and 5 games in a row against Big 10 competitionCan't believe we are discussing whether or not we'll make the dance.
Sat, Jan 28 at Wisconsin 2:00pm FOX Tue, Jan 31 Nebraska 6:00pm BTN Sat, Feb 4 at Iowa 1:30pm FOX Tue, Feb 7 Minnesota 7:30pm BTN Sat, Feb 11 Rutgers 1:00pm FS1 Tue, Feb 14 at Penn State 6:00pm ESPN/2/U Sat, Feb 18 at Indiana 11:00am ESPN/2 Thu, Feb 23 Northwestern 8:00pm BTN Sun, Feb 26 at Ohio State 11:00am CBS Thu, Mar 2 Michigan 6:00pm ESPN Sun, Mar 5 at Purdue 11:30am FOX
11 remaining games (schedule gets tougher as we progress thru the season):
3-1 Next four; we need one road win to get there
2-2 Middle four; four tough games here, and two quality wins required to finish at .500
1-2 Final three games; Michigan at home is the most likely win
6-5 To finish out the season, leaves us at 20-11 overall heading into the BTT.
2-1 in the Tournament leaves us at 22-12 and probably a 6 or 7 seed.
Very helpful. Thanks!
Sat, Jan 28 at Wisconsin 2:00pm FOX Tue, Jan 31 Nebraska 6:00pm BTN Sat, Feb 4 at Iowa 1:30pm FOX Tue, Feb 7 Minnesota 7:30pm BTN Sat, Feb 11 Rutgers 1:00pm FS1 Tue, Feb 14 at Penn State 6:00pm ESPN/2/U Sat, Feb 18 at Indiana 11:00am ESPN/2 Thu, Feb 23 Northwestern 8:00pm BTN Sun, Feb 26 at Ohio State 11:00am CBS Thu, Mar 2 Michigan 6:00pm ESPN Sun, Mar 5 at Purdue 11:30am FOX
11 remaining games (schedule gets tougher as we progress thru the season):
3-1 Next four; we need one road win to get there
2-2 Middle four; four tough games here, and two quality wins required to finish at .500
1-2 Final three games; Michigan at home is the most likely win
6-5 To finish out the season, leaves us at 20-11 overall heading into the BTT.
2-1 in the Tournament leaves us at 22-12 and probably a 6 or 7 seed.
The ultimate optimist:Maybe if we finish the season with only 1 more loss. That would put us at 24-7 (15-5). But last year that was only good enough for a 4 seed. And this year's version of the Big Ten isn't as strong. Or at least the opportunities for marquee wins are fewer.
I was just saying I think we can make it through the month of February with 1 or 2 more losses. Then we'd still have Purdue and Michigan to end the season, neither of which are matchups I feel good about right now.
My best guess:
15-5 = 4 seed
14-6 = 5 seed
13-7 = 6 or 7 seed
12-8 = 8 or 9 seed
11-9 = 10 or 11
10-10 = bubble
I'm sorry but we have Michigan at home and they have been awful all year. Not like we won't be heavy favorites in that gameThen we'd still have Purdue and Michigan to end the season, neither of which are matchups I feel good about right now.
Based on what standard exactly? Only one team being ranked?The Big 10 is horrible per Big 10 standards. Like as bad as its been in maybe a decade.
By the way, anybody with Wisconsin in the field ahead of Northwestern is a joke. Northwestern should be inneasily right now and Wisconsin shouldn't even be sniffing the tournament. Resumes aren't close.
I thought the same thing about IU. Since Jan 1, Michigan has been better than we have according to Torvik. And they have a talented, upperclass big that could cause some problems. Just don't like the match up.I'm sorry but we have Michigan at home and they have been awful all year. Not like we won't be heavy favorites in that game
thanks a walk down memory laneI created a chart of IL seeds per year/coach in wikipedia a while back.
Illinois Fighting Illini men's basketball - Wikipedia
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Two or fewer losses for the remainder of the season would be a very strong run. Likely result in us finishing 2nd in the BIG. Non conference wins over Texas and UCLA would be the difference as compared to last year. 3 seed could happen. I think we end up with a few more losses though. Probably going to end up with a 6/7 seed. Hoping the team is truly built for the tournament. I’d take an Elite 8 finish over winning the BIG.If we did this, we would be a 3 seed
Yeah, in the morning light, I would agree with you and would probably drop everything down a seed line (or move up depending how you want to say it) from my original guess.The ultimate optimist:
I would argue if we're fortunate enough to go 10-1 to finish the season ---- thus having won 15 of our last 17 entering the BTT --- we'll be Top 10 nationally and easily a 3-seed at 24-7. We'd finish 2nd to Purdue and get the #2 seed in the BTT.
Michigan's B1G record is deceitful b/c they have had a fairly easy schedule so far.I'm sorry but we have Michigan at home and they have been awful all year. Not like we won't be heavy favorites in that game
The entire season has been a bloodbath for basically all tournament-caliber teams. I don't think we can use last year as a guide because I think the average overall record in the NCAA is going to be worse this year.Maybe if we finish the season with only 1 more loss. That would put us at 24-7 (15-5). But last year that was only good enough for a 4 seed. And this year's version of the Big Ten isn't as strong. Or at least the opportunities for marquee wins are fewer.
I was just saying I think we can make it through the month of February with 1 or 2 more losses. Then we'd still have Purdue and Michigan to end the season, neither of which are matchups I feel good about right now.
My best guess:
15-5 = 4 seed
14-6 = 5 seed
13-7 = 6 or 7 seed
12-8 = 8 or 9 seed
11-9 = 10 or 11
10-10 = bubble
I think you hit the nail on the head. With the exception of Purdue and Minnesota at the bottom, I think these games are about match-ups rather than relative conference standings.I thought the same thing about IU. Since Jan 1, Michigan has been better than we have according to Torvik. And they have a talented, upperclass big that could cause some problems. Just don't like the match up.
while Michigan is 5-3 in conference a relatively easy first 8 games.I'm sorry but we have Michigan at home and they have been awful all year. Not like we won't be heavy favorites in that game
No, there are Quad 1A wins..and we have 2 of them. Big deal.Are all quad 1 wins treated equally? We have 2 top 10 wins do those get more weight than an away win against number 75
7 seed in 2013 beat Colorado then lost to Miami.Lost to austin peay when we were a 2 seed
Okay, but this is the same Torvik that had Purdue 5th in the BigTen right?I thought the same thing about IU. Since Jan 1, Michigan has been better than we have according to Torvik. And they have a talented, upperclass big that could cause some problems. Just don't like the match up.
Ha yeah, I don't disagree with anything you said. I was just saying that by at least one objective metric, Michigan hasn't been as much of a slouch lately as they were in non-con. And then, yeah, the matchup... I'm probably just shell-shocked from IU and TJD. But the matchup with Michigan, even at home, looks like a more difficult game to me than, say, @Iowa or @OSU.Okay, but this is the same Torvik that had Purdue 5th in the BigTen right?
TORVIK Pre-Season B1G
1.)Indiana
2.)Illinois
3.)Michigan
4.)Michigan State
5.)Purdue
6.)Iowa
7.)Maryland
8.)Rutgers
9.)Ohio State
10.)Wisconsin
11.)Penn State
12.)Nebraska
* Compare that with the present standings at the bottom of the post
* Yes, it was preseason. I get that…nobody gets that exactly right…like EVER…and yes, the season is far from over…
* AND I very much appreciate the degree of straight mathematical objectivity you can get from BT’s and Kenpom’s approach.
Predictability-wise…he’s 100 times better than Dionne Warwick and all her psychic friends put together. He’s several notches above the local weather man…but at the end of the day he’s still a: fairly effective, prestigious, esteemed…..bean counter.
I’m not meaning to pick on you; and I dunno where you’re at on this exactly.
I just think it’s dangerous to put too much stock in any one thing. AP…Torvik…etc.
I agree with you about Michigan
potentially being a difficult match up for us tho…for sure. We’ll see.
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Gotchya…fair point.Ha yeah, I don't disagree with anything you said. I was just saying that by at least one objective metric, Michigan hasn't been as much of a slouch lately as they were in non-con. And then, yeah, the matchup... I'm probably just shell-shocked from IU and TJD. But the matchup with Michigan, even at home, looks like a more difficult game to me than, say, @Iowa or @OSU.