To be fair to those preseason rankings, I think it was pretty tough to predict how good Purdue’s freshmen would be.
1/24 Bracketology
- Status
Oh yeah, certainly.
Thanks for this. I remember at learning with dismay at one point years ago that we had (until then) never beaten a better-seeded team in the tournament. You document that we did do it in 2004, and then again in 2011.I created a chart of IL seeds per year/coach in wikipedia a while back.
Illinois Fighting Illini men's basketball - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Most teams history of upsets is discouraging. That's why it's called an upset.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
As important as seeding is, I really, really, really hope we break our unlucky streak of the last two years where our R32 opponent was vastly under-seeded compared to their actual quality.
2021 - 8 seed Loyola-Chicago was a "true" 3-seed (KP #9)
2022 - 5 seed Houston was a "true" 1-seed (KP #4)
So, basically, we played 2nd-round games as if we were a 6 seed and an 8 seed. That's gotta end eventually, right?
2021 - 8 seed Loyola-Chicago was a "true" 3-seed (KP #9)
2022 - 5 seed Houston was a "true" 1-seed (KP #4)
So, basically, we played 2nd-round games as if we were a 6 seed and an 8 seed. That's gotta end eventually, right?
You should also consider that the margin of victory for Purdue has been small in a lot of their games - 5 games decided by one possession, of which they won 4. They split those 4 wins and, with the exception of Rutgers, the standings are not too different than predicted.
If Purdue has problems with the two Michigan schools (tonight Michigan on the road, and the next game Mich State at home) the league becomes wide open. I don't think they are actually dominating the B1G. They have just got it done in close games (i.e. Neb in OT). We will see how they fair the second half of the season.
Based on exactly what i already said. The last 15 years of Big 10 strength. Anybody with a sliver of objectivity will admit this may be the weakest the league has been in recent memory. And yes, one team being ranked is embarrassing as well.
Not sure why you want to compare us to the Pac 12(which has been the weakest Power 5 for a while) or the ACC in its weakest stretch in my lifetime. Pretty poor standards to go by.
Agree. I think a lot of the AP voters are lazy. Just looking at wins/losses. 13 top 100 teams in the BIG. Every night is tough. Even Minny is better than their record/net/Kenpom rankings suggest. They lost very close games to Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. Jameson Battle is just now rounding into form after a foot injury and Dawson Garcia is finding his role on the team. This is not a weak conference. We may not have a lot of top 15-20 type teams, but the BIG has some very good basketball teams.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Again, what are you comparing B1G strength over last 15 years to be (AP/Coaches rankings?)? From a stance of clear cut top end teams, we are "weak" compared with the past. However, you stick any of the teams (less NE and MN) in the ACC and Pac 12 this year, for example, and they would be competing for a top 3 or 4 position in the league. Because there is a lot of parity in the B1G does not make it the weakest it has been in the last 15 years. I would argue the exact opposite, which is what I laid out and why I compared it to the ACC and Pac 12. When a conference is very weak, there are 2-4 teams that are strong and the rest are much weaker. This year, only Purdue has stood out from the pack, and only MN and NE are really poor. If there was less parity in the league, then there would definitely be at least 2-4 B1G teams ranked (there would be less cannibalism in league play). For that reason it is not embarrassing to have only one ranked team - I expect at least 2 to 3 teams in the B1G being ranked by end of year.
Only the Big 12 is considered a step above the B1G this year from a metrics standpoint, and possibly the SEC as well (I believe they are neck and neck). If the B1G was that weak, there is no way that 10 teams in the conference are still in the hunt for a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
Yep, and I’m pretty confident Purdue drops one to a team we expect them to beat. Such is life in this conference.
I think the Big 10 had the second best OOC record and the second most power 5 wins/team. We don’t have a particularly super strong team but we have a lot of teams worthy of the round of 32 or round of 16.
sacraig
- The desert
We can guarantee that if we make a concerned effort to barely sneak into the tournament as, say, a 13 seed.
JFGsCoffeeMug
BU:1 Trash cans:0
- Chicago
I would love to be the team that another fanbase complains about being "underseeded" going into the tournament.We can guarantee that if we make a concerned effort to barely sneak into the tournament as, say, a 13 seed.
sacraig
- The desert
*concertedWe can guarantee that if we make a concerned effort to barely sneak into the tournament as, say, a 13 seed.
Ugh.
Well we’re gonna have to see how this all shakes out. It’s clearly a fool’s errand/a near exercise in futility to analyze this before the season is even over? Who had that bright idea, anyway. Oh, wait…dumb idea.
Of course I gotta push back a little. You said it isn’t presently that much different than what was predicted…and the one exception was Rutgers…
What about Northwestern? Torvik had them at 13. They’re presently tied for 3rd place.
I get what you’re saying about the margin of victory being so close …that’s a valid point I suppose.
Although, that’s starting to get a little too would-a, could-a, should-a and a bit too tedious for me to be honest. 1pt is enough. Somebody has to win and those other teams didn’t. Simpleton statement-yes…but it’s also true.
* Purdue has a 13.8 margin
…the highest in the Bigten.
Which is what you would expect for a team 1st in the Bigten.
*I realize this isn’t a perfect measure by any means either because it is no doubt based on ALL schools played…rather than solely B1G schools. But I could be wrong.
Just gonna have to see how it shakes out I guess?
Last edited:
No problem. I unfortunately remember it all too well.
Bigtex
- DFW
I understand upsets you are coming in as the underdog. But unfortunately track record as a favorite isn’t all that sterling in the ncaa tournament.
there also was an article years ago or data showing Henson one of 5 worst coaches in ncaa tourney. I think Barnes / Tennessee & Texas was the worst.
I gave you a pass on that.
sacraig
- The desert
I'm my own harshest critic.
Why do you think this is? What say ye all?
One of those posts that I think is very true, but cannot "like."
Bigtex
- DFW
I think a 4 to 7 seed in March is likely or possible.
- Status