Thanks for the data aaeismacgychel. Do you know if this is built into the KenPom model?Interestingly enough, Ken Pomeroy did a study on this very thing, and found out that overtime metrics actually shows slightly better correlation with predictive results to the final 5 minutes of regulation in a tied ballgame. While the study is locked behind a paywall, I'll summarize what it showed:
Garbage time is real:
@10min left: A 23+pt margin...
@5min left: A 15+pt margin ...
@2min left: A 13+pt margin ...
...
As a mere mortal, I'll approximate this as a score difference of: 11pts + 1pt/min remaining