Pregame: Illinois at Penn State, Tuesday, February 14th, 6:00pm CT, ESPNU

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#51      
Unless we beat PSU we have virtually no chance for the double bye in the Big Ten tournament. If we beat them and lose away at Indiana and Purdue, we wind up with 13 wins. Unless Rutgers lose at PSU both Rutgers and Indiana will have 14 wins. This would leave Illinois and Maryland (unless they lose either at NU or at PSU) tied with 13 wins. Since Maryland beat Illinois in the head to head, they get the double bye. If Illinois beats Indiana away, then Indiana enters into a 3 way tie. Once again, Illinois loses the tie breaker as they would have lost to both Maryland and Indiana.

Doesn't look good, but there is still some hope if we beat PSU ( if Indiana loses to both Illinois (at home) and MSU (on the road).
The probability that Rutgers and Indiana both finish with 14 wins is extremely low. Maryland likely won't be favored in at least 2 of their last 6 games.
 
#52      
TSJ will definitely get the first crack at Pickett. But I'm sure we'll throw Hawkins and Rogers at him.

We'll try to get Dain going inside, but I wouldn't be surprised if BU leans on his defense by moving Hawkins to the 5. That makes more room for Rogers and Sencire to get in the court. Wouldn't mind sticking Sincere on Funk, make him uncomfortable.

In the past, PSU was winning games by making it ugly. I think we should make it ugly this time. Hard for a 3pt team to get in a rhythm that way.
 
#56      

Retro62

North Bethesda, Maryland
This is a game I've been looking forward to the minute we lost to them at home. We need to return the favor. I expect us to be all over Pickett, with several guys...he is not going to bully us in the paint again. I think this game will look similar to RU, in that it will be frustrating for a while, and then we will clamp down and wear them out for a 8 to 10 point win.
 
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#57      
This is a game I've been looking forward to the minute we lost to them at home. We need to return the favor. I expect us to be all over Pickett, with several guys...he is not going to bully us in the paint again. I think this game will look similar to RU, in that it will be frustrating for a while, and then we will clamp down and wear them out for a 8 to 10 point win.
Will we pass Michigan State this week?

 
#58      
Just stop Picket from backing a defender down to right in front of the rim.
I've watched the last few PSU games, and that is his primary scoring mode. He will push, and bang, backing his way down low until he's almost under the basket. No 3 second calls, no offensive fouls called, and I watched at least two plays where has banged so hard the defensive player was pushed back a good 2-3 feet, giving him space to shoot. This is the style of B1G play that gets B1G teams in trouble come tourney time . . . Maybe a good opportunity for TSJ to guard him due to the size difference . . . or Maybe Cohawk?
 
#59      

danielb927

Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
Fun facts I just learned - Penn State is dead last in all of DI (363 teams) in both offensive rebounding percentage and free throw rate.

They rebound 17.4% of their misses (next lowest in DI is 18%).
They shoot 17.7 free throws for every 100 field goal attempts (next lowest in DI is 20.5).

Those numbers are even lower in B1G play - 15% OReb rate and 16.5 FTs per 100 FGAs.

They make up for this with extremely efficient shooting (55.6% eFG%) and taking care of the ball (13.4% turnover rate) - both top-15 in the country.

Not sure I've ever seen a more bipolar team in terms of the "four factors"!
 
#60      
Fun facts I just learned - Penn State is dead last in all of DI (363 teams) in both offensive rebounding percentage and free throw rate.

They rebound 17.4% of their misses (next lowest in DI is 18%).
They shoot 17.7 free throws for every 100 field goal attempts (next lowest in DI is 20.5).

Those numbers are even lower in B1G play - 15% OReb rate and 16.5 FTs per 100 FGAs.

They make up for this with extremely efficient shooting (55.6% eFG%) and taking care of the ball (13.4% turnover rate) - both top-15 in the country.

Not sure I've ever seen a more bipolar team in terms of the "four factors"!
So given that it's the beloved traveling to State College, and there will in fact be BigTen officials working the game, I'll put the over/under for PSU FT attempts at 24.
 
#61      
Fun facts I just learned - Penn State is dead last in all of DI (363 teams) in both offensive rebounding percentage and free throw rate.

They rebound 17.4% of their misses (next lowest in DI is 18%).
They shoot 17.7 free throws for every 100 field goal attempts (next lowest in DI is 20.5).

Those numbers are even lower in B1G play - 15% OReb rate and 16.5 FTs per 100 FGAs.

They make up for this with extremely efficient shooting (55.6% eFG%) and taking care of the ball (13.4% turnover rate) - both top-15 in the country.

Not sure I've ever seen a more bipolar team in terms of the "four factors"!
We have to

One. Reduce our turnovers

Two. Penetrate the paint

Three. Let Rogers feast on the boards.
 
#62      

danielb927

Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
So given that it's the beloved traveling to State College, and there will in fact be BigTen officials working the game, I'll put the over/under for PSU FT attempts at 24.

Considering the most they've shot in a home game all year is 18 and adjusting for Illinois reffing luck... that sounds about right ;)
 
#63      

danielb927

Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
We have to

One. Reduce our turnovers

Two. Penetrate the paint

Three. Let Rogers feast on the boards.

Totally agree. They are the best in the B1G right now in keeping opponents off the offensive glass. They don't turn teams over much, so we have to start there as a baseline. Then be patient on offense. No chucking, work for good looks - they're there for the taking as PSU allows a high eFG%. Finally, if Rodgers can get in there and grab some offensive boards, that will undermine what Penn State wants to do and change the dynamic.
 
#65      

GrayGhost77

Centennial, CO
if we score more points than they do, we will win this game!
Morgan Freeman Reaction GIF by MOODMAN
 
#69      
Jim Gaffigan on being a college bowling coach: What kind of strategy advice is a bowling coach giving? “You know what? This time Timmy, I want you to knock down all the pins.” “You sure?” “Trust me. Just do it son!””
In baseball, the average head coach compensation has increased from $430,228 to $651,445 between 2013 and 2018.

What does a power five college bowling coach get paid these days?
 
#72      
Fun facts I just learned - Penn State is dead last in all of DI (363 teams) in both offensive rebounding percentage and free throw rate.

They rebound 17.4% of their misses (next lowest in DI is 18%).
They shoot 17.7 free throws for every 100 field goal attempts (next lowest in DI is 20.5).

Those numbers are even lower in B1G play - 15% OReb rate and 16.5 FTs per 100 FGAs.

They make up for this with extremely efficient shooting (55.6% eFG%) and taking care of the ball (13.4% turnover rate) - both top-15 in the country.

Not sure I've ever seen a more bipolar team in terms of the "four factors"!
Can we be sure that Micah Shrewsberry isn't an AI-generated coach who was only fed video of MVC games from 2006?
 
#73      
Of all the disastrous snafus vs. Penn State over the years that have been mentioned, none stings for me quite like the McBride buzzer-beater-that-wasn't in 2006 to (A) break our 38-game home winning streak, (B) officially signal the end of our era of Big Ten dominance that had lasted for years and (C) cost us our third straight Big Ten championship by one game.

Let's beat the crap out of them.
 
#74      
In baseball, the average head coach compensation has increased from $430,228 to $651,445 between 2013 and 2018.

What does a power five college bowling coach get paid these days?
I don't know. I can, however, confirm that a high school varsity bowling coach gets a "thank you" and a hearty handshake (after paying for our own background check).
 
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