Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread

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#102      
Not to be argumentative, but so what if interest in college basketball declines? Is it a business that needs to grow revenue? Or is it college athletics that is on some wavelength supposed to be partially an amateur sport?

If it is truly an amateur sport, then popularity going up or down simply does not matter. If it is a business, then players should be employees.

But the idea that they should FORCE kids into staying where they don't want to while making coaches and others millionaires simply isn't fair. The old system took advantage of kids.

If the new system is fair and less popular, then so be it.
Not at all arguing the bolded; agree 100% and never suggested anyone should be forced to stay anywhere or continue to be taken advantage of. Maybe you are correct. I foresee college athletics becoming like minor league baseball on its new trajectory. My point is that if that happens, then the kids are going to be right back where they were before all this started - making far less money than now. Not only that, but the days of coaches making $4-$10 million a year will also be over because the money simply will not be there to sustain that business model. Games will be played in front of about 2500 fans, TV ratings will tank, and another great American pastime will go by the wayside. Just how I see it, but I may be too cynical.
 
#103      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
Not at all arguing the bolded; agree 100% and never suggested anyone should be forced to stay anywhere or continue to be taken advantage of. Maybe you are correct. I foresee college athletics becoming like minor league baseball on its new trajectory. My point is that if that happens, then the kids are going to be right back where they were before all this started - making far less money than now. Not only that, but the days of coaches making $4-$10 million a year will also be over because the money simply will not be there to sustain that business model. Games will be played in front of about 2500 fans, TV ratings will tank, and another great American pastime will go by the wayside. Just how I see it, but I may be too cynical.
I think this might be a bit too catastrophic (imagine those words coming out of my mouth!) but I agree with the sentiment.

One sidenote, quietly, coaches kinda seem somewhat less valuable in the direction we're heading?
 
#106      
He shot 100% on his threes last year. Just the type of pure shooter we’re looking for! 😉

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#107      
Non athlete students can transfer whenever they want, yes? If that's the case, NCAA will have no grounds to restrict transfers of athletes. That's what kicked the NIL door wide open.
Non athlete students can go to school for 50 years if they want to but I'm not sure it would be good for Illinois or any school if the NCAA were to offer unlimited athletic eligibility.

Revenue generating college sports is a unique and imperfect beast. It's hard if not impossible to find accurate analogs.

Amateur or not, the market of fans will ultimately decide how the future looks.
 
#108      
Near as I can tell, the only thing that’s changed is there is reportedly at least one legal challenge to these rules. Everything else seems to be speculation.
Well, as of now, it appears the NCAA specifically states a coaching change will not be considered grounds for a waiver.
 
#110      
Y

You people are talking crazy!!! He will always get his playing time. Almost every time he enters the game he single handedly changes the complexion of the game. We have nobody else on this team who effects the game like him
He’ll play, but I don’t see him getting any more minutes than he got last year and very possibly less just based on the numbers game if we see Shannon and Hawk return and a vet PG brought in. Now if some of what the insiders think will happen doesn’t, he’ll still need to improve his shooting to see his mpg increase over last year I think.
 
#113      
Non athlete students can transfer whenever they want, yes? If that's the case, NCAA will have no grounds to restrict transfers of athletes. That's what kicked the NIL door wide open.
Student Athletes can transfer whenever they want. They can even receive an athletic scholarship and all that entails.
 
#114      

altgeld88

Arlington, Virginia
Yeah. so…what’s the frequency?……….Kenneth?
Come to think of it, the Portal Times do feel a bit like a couple of crazy guys in trench coats grabbing Dan Rather and pulling him into an alley to interrogate him.

(And I'm chuckling to myself wondering how many young'uns in the thread have any idea what we're talking about. Google is, in this case if not not others, our friend.)
 
#116      
I can't find it now, but I think in a previous version of this thread that some poster said the "revenue-producing programs" would need a sort of GM to handle NIL, and this prompted another poster to say that there are only like two programs that turn a profit. That is definitely not true, from my research into profits by program:

1. Kentucky: $56.0 million in revenue, $31.2 million in profit
2. Louisville: 53.6M revenue, 29.2M profit
3. Indiana: 37.5M revenue, 17.1M profit
4. Duke: 35.4M revenue, 14.6M profit
5. Kansas: 34.1M revenue, 18.7M profit
6. Syracuse: 31.9M revenue, 17.6M profit
7. Ohio State: 30.1M revenue, 9.6M profit
8. North Carolina: 29.9M revenue, 17.5M profit
9. Michigan State: 28.5M revenue, 9.3M profit
10. Illinois: 27.6M revenue, 12.9M profit
11. UCLA: 26.3M revenue, 16.4M profit
12. Wisconsin: 25.3M revenue, 14.5M profit
13. Arkansas: 24.7M revenue, 13.9M profit
14. Michigan: 24.1M revenue, 11.3M profit
15. Arizona: 23.9M revenue, 13.0M profit
16. Maryland: 22.5M revenue, 10.4M profit
17. Marquette: 20.3M revenue, 7.3M profit
18. Minnesota: 19.7M revenue, 9.8M profit
19. Alabama: 19.3M revenue, 4.9M profit
20. Texas: 18.7M revenue, 1.0M profit

Quite a few basketball programs - by themselves - provide their athletic departments with several million in profit.
Do these numbers include the payments on the Athletic Department debts? Last I knew the UIUC Athletic department was still 200M+ in debt, mostly for the Stadium and Assembly Hall upgrades.
 
#117      

sacraig

The desert
Please let us know what the natural frequency of the NIL system is and when we may expect finally to observe it. ;)
As I was walking to my class, I was legitimately thinking about what units any of these parameters would even have. What are the response and forcing functions? I'll need to ruminate on that before I can start modeling.

Forcing is probably something like "revenue generated by NCAA basketball" and the response function is probably something like "dollars openly spent on NIL deals," but that doesn't really capture things like transfers. This system is too multidimensional for me to think about during walks to and from class.
 
#118      
Schools can reduce transfers by altering the terms of the NIL agreements. For a freshman, it could look like: We will pay you X/year in NIL. There is an additional 4X bonus if you graduate from UIUC. (i.e. 50% of the pay is for staying)

If nothing else, it would take a bunch of the sting out of transfers. The question is whether the students would accept the contracts, or take lower value contracts elsewhere that pay more up front.
 
#119      
I can't find the tweet that originally went out, but from where I'm sitting, it was all phrased vaguely enough that folks could get creative to get around the transfer waiver restrictions. That's all.

The one thing that I've learned from watching college sports is that there's always a way around the rule. It's just more likely to happen with properly executed creativity and clout.

This is an internet message board so I want to emphasize that I am not arguing with you, I don't know the answer and don't have much of an imagination but I am curious because it seemed like several insiders expect soon to be former St John's players to get a waiver but the wording I saw seems to really narrow down the options. Although it takes affect in 2023-24 so this Portal season may still be under the old rules ?


Transfer waiver guidelines​

The Council voted unanimously to update guidelines for the waiver process for undergraduate student-athletes who are transferring for a second time.

Each waiver request will be evaluated on a case-by-case basis, but moving forward, student-athletes must meet one of the following criteria to be granted a waiver to compete immediately:
  • A demonstrated physical injury or illness or mental health condition that necessitated the student's transfer (supporting documentation, care plans and proximity of the student's support system will be considered), or
  • Exigent circumstances that clearly necessitate a student-athlete's immediate departure from the previous school (e.g., physical assault or abuse, sexual assault) unrelated to the student-athlete's athletics participation.
All other guidelines will no longer be used for waiver requests to compete during championship seasons that first occur in 2023-24.

The Council agreed that athletics reasons (lack of playing time, position presence) and academic preferences should not warrant waiver relief.

The Council directed the Transfer Advisory Group to recommend changes to the transfer waiver process to manage situations that fall outside these guidelines.

For transfer student-athletes expected to meet the requirements for a limited transfer exception (discontinued sport, or non-scholarship exception) the Council voted to allow student-athletes to enter the Transfer Portal at any time instead of requiring them to use their respective sport's transfer window.
 
#121      

altgeld88

Arlington, Virginia
As I was walking to my class, I was legitimately thinking about what units any of these parameters would even have. What are the response and forcing functions? I'll need to ruminate on that before I can start modeling.

Forcing is probably something like "revenue generated by NCAA basketball" and the response function is probably something like "dollars openly spent on NIL deals," but that doesn't really capture things like transfers. This system is too multidimensional for me to think about during walks to and from class.
Please also incorporate the "counter-steering" feedback mechanism in your modeling and explanation so this trip down memory lane from my controls class in the M.E.B. 36 years ago this semester will be complete.

Oh, and please deploy the term "dashpot" in the process.
 
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#125      
Schools can reduce transfers by altering the terms of the NIL agreements. For a freshman, it could look like: We will pay you X/year in NIL. There is an additional 4X bonus if you graduate from UIUC. (i.e. 50% of the pay is for staying)

If nothing else, it would take a bunch of the sting out of transfers. The question is whether the students would accept the contracts, or take lower value contracts elsewhere that pay more up front.
This is 100% where it needs to head IMHO. However, that still doesn't take away the fact that it's no longer about the name on your jersey and more about the car you are driving and the parties you are going to. Wondering what alumni reunions will look like in the future as well. Will players have the emotional ties to a school anymore like many of our legends (dwill, dee, ayo, etc)
 
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