Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread

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#728      

sacraig

sacraig
The desert
sacraig
aaeismacgychel said:
For those like you worried about how him playing at Toledo would likely translate to P5 level play, RayJ's closest statistical comparable is Carlik Jones who played at Radford before going to Louisville for a year a few years back. Both players are 6'1"-6'2" 185lb PGs who played 3 years of midmajor ball and had phenomenal junior seasons before going power 5. This is how Carlik Jones' numbers changed and what we could expect from RayJ if he follows a similar track and where he would be predicted to rank in the B10 next season:

Carlik Jones: (Radford (Jr)--->Louisville (Sr), change)
OEff: 1.198-->1.057ppp (-0.141ppp)
eFG%: 53.1-->43.4% (-9.7%)
2pt%: 50.6-->42.2% (-8.4%)
3pt%: 40.4-->32.1% (-8.3%)
AstRate: 36.1-->26.1 (-10.0%)
TORate: 13.5-->12.7 (-0.8%)
STL%: 2.3-->2.2% (-0.1%)

RayJ: (Toledo (Jr)--->Illinois Predicted (Sr), change)
OEff: 1.192-->1.052ppp (-0.140ppp) [52nd in B10]
eFG%: 52.9-->43.2% (-9.7%)
2pt%: 52.3-->43.6% (-8.7%)
3pt%: 36.4-->29.1% (-7.3%)
AstRate: 32.1-->23.2 (-8.9%) [9th in B10]
TORate: 11.5-->10.8 (-0.7%) [14th in B10]
STL%: 2.5-->2.4% (-0.1%) [16th in B10]

So overall, I think some worry about how his offense and shooting might fall off in B10 play is fair based on best historical comparison, but his assist and turnover rates should still translate quite well to B10 play as should his ability to get steals on defense. That said, he would not be expected to be the go to guy on offense for us, so decrease in shooting may not mean as much if he's mainly taking higher than average quality shots due to primarily being a setup man for this team. All in all, should be a very good get for us regardless.
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This is an almost comically flawed analysis.

Ben Affleck is about my size. He moved to Hollywood and made it big, becoming a popular actor and director. I guess that means I should move to Hollywood.
 
#730      

Rich

Rich
Rich
Do we know rough timetable for RayJ to decide?
 
#732      

KnoxIllini2

KnoxIllini2
KnoxIllini2
Rich said:
Do we know rough timetable for RayJ to decide?
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It has been shared here that Sunday we should get some sort of news. Will that be a commitment or a draft withdrawal, that I don’t know. It could be a simultaneous announcement and rip the hearts out of Toledo fans everywhere.
 
#734      

21ChampaignSt

21ChampaignSt
21ChampaignSt
aaeismacgychel said:
For those like you worried about how him playing at Toledo would likely translate to P5 level play, RayJ's closest statistical comparable is Carlik Jones who played at Radford before going to Louisville for a year a few years back. Both players are 6'1"-6'2" 185lb PGs who played 3 years of midmajor ball and had phenomenal junior seasons before going power 5. This is how Carlik Jones' numbers changed and what we could expect from RayJ if he follows a similar track and where he would be predicted to rank in the B10 next season:

Carlik Jones: (Radford (Jr)--->Louisville (Sr), change)
OEff: 1.198-->1.057ppp (-0.141ppp)
eFG%: 53.1-->43.4% (-9.7%)
2pt%: 50.6-->42.2% (-8.4%)
3pt%: 40.4-->32.1% (-8.3%)
AstRate: 36.1-->26.1 (-10.0%)
TORate: 13.5-->12.7 (-0.8%)
STL%: 2.3-->2.2% (-0.1%)

RayJ: (Toledo (Jr)--->Illinois Predicted (Sr), change)
OEff: 1.192-->1.052ppp (-0.140ppp) [52nd in B10]
eFG%: 52.9-->43.2% (-9.7%)
2pt%: 52.3-->43.6% (-8.7%)
3pt%: 36.4-->29.1% (-7.3%)
AstRate: 32.1-->23.2 (-8.9%) [9th in B10]
TORate: 11.5-->10.8 (-0.7%) [14th in B10]
STL%: 2.5-->2.4% (-0.1%) [16th in B10]

So overall, I think some worry about how his offense and shooting might fall off in B10 play is fair based on best historical comparison, but his assist and turnover rates should still translate quite well to B10 play as should his ability to get steals on defense. That said, he would not be expected to be the go to guy on offense for us, so decrease in shooting may not mean as much if he's mainly taking higher than average quality shots due to primarily being a setup man for this team. All in all, should be a very good get for us regardless.
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You're getting some flack for this, but I appreciate the effort. It's a more thoughtful comparison than, "RayJ reminds of XYZ NBA Hall of Famer or XYZ Illini legend".

As you stated, the a:to ratio is what is of greater importance for our future pg... especially if TJ comes back.
 
#735      

Lee

L
Lee
Rich said:
Do we know rough timetable for RayJ to decide?
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bbc one drama GIF by BBC
 
#743      

blackdog

blackdog
Champaign
blackdog
sacraig said:
This is an almost comically flawed analysis.

Ben Affleck is about my size. He moved to Hollywood and made it big, becoming a popular actor and director. I guess that means I should move to Hollywood.
Click to expand...

Sample size of 1 = anecdotal evidence. I'm a social worker (aka not a math guy) and even I know that much.
 
#744      

john1952

john1952
john1952
Illini in Italy said:
I spent three years sentenced to Chanute AFB during my time at the UI (My wife was an active duty AF nurse while I went school after my first 7 years on active duty). Rantoul only had a few redeeming qualities back then:

- Its' proximity to CU and the University;
- Garcia's Pizza (still one of the best pizza's I had outside of Italy); and
- The Hitchin' Post right outside the main gate of the base, where Ethyl and the Octanes frequently played.
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I was never a Garcias fan (too thick), but the Hitchen Post was a good time.. Loing time since I had thought of that.
 
#746      

sacraig

sacraig
The desert
sacraig
Indy Illini Fan said:
I’ve said after the NFL draft for weeks … Enjoy tonight and the next couple days supporting our guys …

Last I had heard … Waiting on a little time to go by and an edit …

And yes @illini0440 & I talk … It’s the same info … 😂

The Weeknd Snl GIF by Zack Kantor
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Did you and @illini0440 know each other beforehand or did interactions on this board with someone clearly in similar circles to you prompt you to have an insider blind date?
 
#750      

RichardKeenesCousin

RichardKeenesCousin
Richard Keene's Cousin
RichardKeenesCousin
sacraig said:
Did you and @illini0440 know each other beforehand or did interactions on this board with someone clearly in similar circles to you prompt you to have an insider blind date?
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High Five Tom Cruise GIF by Hollywood Suite

I have something more like this in my head. Not necessarily a date, but more of a shirtless athletic bonding moment. I'm just not sure which one is Maverick and which one is Goose, however.
 
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