Conference Realignment

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#76      

Greensboro

Greensboro
Greensboro
So open question...Is this a sign that expansion at the top by the Big Ten/SEC is over outside of maybe ND? If Washington/Oregon/Stanford and the rest of the PAC 12 is worth near nothing, how many teams move the needle for the B1G/SEC? With talk of TV slots filling on major networks, the diminishing value to TV networks of more inventory, & with each new team needing to be worth the conference payout in additional TV money to just break even, it is getting harder to see teams meeting that bar. ND is still out there and probably an obvious take, NC/Virginia have been thrown out there, but neither are football schools and are they really worth that much more than Oregon or any other PAC12 team, Florida State maybe brings you a spot in Florida, but is definitely second fiddle to FL, so even if they get academic approval do they bring in enough money to make it financially worth the contract share?

conference payout estimates

The link is a bit dated & from sounds of negotiations they would probably downgrade PAC12 payouts. But can ACC/PAC12/Big12 & even ND stay competitive while giving up 30-50 mill/year for the foreseeable future...& by the time the ACC GOR is over will even Clemson & ND still be competitive?
 
#77      

illini80

illini80
Forgottonia
illini80
Greensboro said:
So open question...Is this a sign that expansion at the top by the Big Ten/SEC is over outside of maybe ND? If Washington/Oregon/Stanford and the rest of the PAC 12 is worth near nothing, how many teams move the needle for the B1G/SEC? With talk of TV slots filling on major networks, the diminishing value to TV networks of more inventory, & with each new team needing to be worth the conference payout in additional TV money to just break even, it is getting harder to see teams meeting that bar. ND is still out there and probably an obvious take, NC/Virginia have been thrown out there, but neither are football schools and are they really worth that much more than Oregon or any other PAC12 team, Florida State maybe brings you a spot in Florida, but is definitely second fiddle to FL, so even if they get academic approval do they bring in enough money to make it financially worth the contract share?

conference payout estimates

The link is a bit dated & from sounds of negotiations they would probably downgrade PAC12 payouts. But can ACC/PAC12/Big12 & even ND stay competitive while giving up 30-50 mill/year for the foreseeable future...& by the time the ACC GOR is over will even Clemson & ND still be competitive?
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I think you are correct in that there just are few, if any, schools willing to move that check all the boxes and bring adequate revenue.

Unfortunately I’ve forgotten who the interview was with (maybe Matt Stevens), but fairly recently someone commented on the likelihood of any more expansion in the B10. The clear indication was the University Presidents/Chancellors and Kevin Warren were not on the same page and that he was basically shown the door over his public comments about wanting to pursue further expansion. Notre Dame would clearly be the exception to that I’m sure.
 
#78      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
illini80 said:
I think you are correct in that there just are few, if any, schools willing to move that check all the boxes and bring adequate revenue.

Unfortunately I’ve forgotten who the interview was with (maybe Matt Stevens), but fairly recently someone commented on the likelihood of any more expansion in the B10. The clear indication was the University Presidents/Chancellors and Kevin Warren were not on the same page and that he was basically shown the door over his public comments about wanting to pursue further expansion. Notre Dame would clearly be the exception to that I’m sure.
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Yeah, there is a lot of speculation about the specific components that go into what money a school "brings" to the conference (including, I'm sure, speculation about potential value a school could have in the future with the right coach, AD, etc.), but one thing is clear:

No school is getting added to the Big Ten unless it increases "the pie" to such a degree that 15 pieces are now all of a sudden worth more each than 14 pieces were. In other words, if each school is currently getting $1,000 out of a $14,000 pie, a new 15th school would have to add at least $1,100 to BARELY increase each school's payout, and we likely would not take a school unless it was adding $2,000 or more in this very simplified hypothetical. I would imagine there are a few schools like Notre Dame that are absolute no-brainers that would very easily increase everyone's payout by a significant amount of money. The Iowa States of the world are, unfortunately, just more mouths to feed.
 
#79      

spotter

S
spotter
The more I read about it, the more I think the B1G will stay put until/if ND comes hat in hand to Rosemont.

I don't think the Big 10 will add schools just for adding sake. If the Pac-12 dissolves maybe WA and OR, but the economic models will have to make sense.
 
#80      

Mr. Tibbs

Mr. Tibbs
southeast DuPage
Mr. Tibbs
there are no more schools from the Pac12 or Big12 that move the needle in a positive direction
Texas did, but they are going to SEC
ND does
Clemson and Florida St likely do, and Im not totally sure, but they cant move really for 10 years
I highly doubt any school would leave the SEC for the B1G
so I dont think we will see any changes for awhile, if even then
ND could mean enough extra money, in that if they wanted to bring some PAC school in with them, maybe then Stanford or Wash or Oregon comes in .
but just one of those 3 schools

put any expansion talk on hold
 
#81      

Illiniguy74

I
Illiniguy74
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Yeah, there is a lot of speculation about the specific components that go into what money a school "brings" to the conference (including, I'm sure, speculation about potential value a school could have in the future with the right coach, AD, etc.), but one thing is clear:

No school is getting added to the Big Ten unless it increases "the pie" to such a degree that 15 pieces are now all of a sudden worth more each than 14 pieces were. In other words, if each school is currently getting $1,000 out of a $14,000 pie, a new 15th school would have to add at least $1,100 to BARELY increase each school's payout, and we likely would not take a school unless it was adding $2,000 or more in this very simplified hypothetical. I would imagine there are a few schools like Notre Dame that are absolute no-brainers that would very easily increase everyone's payout by a significant amount of money. The Iowa States of the world are, unfortunately, just more mouths to feed.
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I agree that a significant increase would be necessary for the B1G to accept an additional school. However, I doubt doubling the payout would be necessary. I don't think any school, including Notre Dame, could meet that threshold. Assuming two schools would be needed to balance the league, nothing will happen until another school with the impact of Notre Dame is available to insure Notre Dame's inclusion is not diluted.
 
#82      

Greensboro

Greensboro
Greensboro
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Yeah, there is a lot of speculation about the specific components that go into what money a school "brings" to the conference (including, I'm sure, speculation about potential value a school could have in the future with the right coach, AD, etc.), but one thing is clear:

No school is getting added to the Big Ten unless it increases "the pie" to such a degree that 15 pieces are now all of a sudden worth more each than 14 pieces were. In other words, if each school is currently getting $1,000 out of a $14,000 pie, a new 15th school would have to add at least $1,100 to BARELY increase each school's payout, and we likely would not take a school unless it was adding $2,000 or more in this very simplified hypothetical. I would imagine there are a few schools like Notre Dame that are absolute no-brainers that would very easily increase everyone's payout by a significant amount of money. The Iowa States of the world are, unfortunately, just more mouths to feed.
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I think the proximity and travel costs is also part of the equation balanced with the quest to expand market area. Between the SEC & B1G we have pilfered most of the no-brainers that you take regardless of location outside of probably ND. Oregon may be worth more than Kansas ( but with the rumored PAC12 TV negotiations maybe not), but they also need to bring in enough to cover all the extra travel costs + maybe deep down someone is thinking about all of the students that now spend an extra day traveling across the country. The most logical stretch of the existing border move seems to be the ACC & they seem pretty locked up with GOR, plus VA & NC aren't exactly know as football schools.
 
#83      

Greensboro

Greensboro
Greensboro
Illiniguy74 said:
I agree that a significant increase would be necessary for the B1G to accept an additional school. However, I doubt doubling the payout would be necessary. I don't think any school, including Notre Dame, could meet that threshold. Assuming two schools would be needed to balance the league, nothing will happen until another school with the impact of Notre Dame is available to insure Notre Dame's inclusion is not diluted.
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probably not, but I think the general point here, doubling the current per team payment long term only would increase the Illinois share by 1/15 or ~$67...if you change that number to 50 million which is closer to the current payment, the new school brings in 100 million more to the conference and by the time you split it 15 ways the share goes up ~3.3 million.
 
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#89      

Greensboro

Greensboro
Greensboro
spotter said:
ACC athletic directors getting antsy publicly.

www.post-gazette.com

Show me the money: ACC schools continue push to bridge financial gap with other leagues

Last month, the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) extended commissioner Jim Phillips’ contract for three years, a deal that will keep him at the helm...
www.post-gazette.com www.post-gazette.com
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ACC looks like they are just beginning to acknowledge they will be a mess by end of this Media rights deal, I don't really see an out for them though. They cut a long term deal that keeps getting less competitive. I don't see ESPN giving them more money, no reason too & that is where the big gap in revenue is coming from. Sure explore other options, but if there was an easy answer there someone would have already done it & if you magically find an untapped source of income no reason the SEC & B1G can't exploit that as well. If there are any programs worth anything by 2036, the B1G/SEC can pick up the scraps, but more likely anything left will be lucky to find a home in whatever the Big12 looks like by then.
 
#92      

IlliniSaluki

IlliniSaluki
IL metro east burbs of St. Louis
IlliniSaluki
Epsilon said:
I don’t know who this is but could be an indication that Washington and Oregon are getting closer to joining B1G…

www.outkick.com

Oregon, Washington 'Vetted' And 'Cleared' To Join The Big Ten According To New Report

Conference realignment continues to be the story of college football, with the Big Ten leading the charge.
www.outkick.com www.outkick.com
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I saw a yt video talking about this. The basics about it was that the B1G doesn't want to be the ones to put the final nail in the PAC coffin but if AZ or CO or someone else jumps to the Big 12 first then OR & WA have had all the vetting etc done for them to join the B1G.
 
#93      

IllinoisssssssVarsity

I
IllinoisssssssVarsity
IlliniSaluki said:
I saw a yt video talking about this. The basics about it was that the B1G doesn't want to be uthe ones to put the final nail in the PAC coffin but if AZ or CO or someone else jumps to the Big 12 first then OR & WA have had all the vetting etc done for them to join the B1G.
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Pretty sure the first nail was the final nail.
 
#94      

Mr. Tibbs

Mr. Tibbs
southeast DuPage
Mr. Tibbs
it’s so “weird” to me to think of the PAC being the red headed step child of big time college sports , because throughout the 1960’s - 1990’s , they seemingly were the #1 conference in all respects
 
#96      

fuddrules

F
fuddrules
Mr. Tibbs said:
it’s so “weird” to me to think of the PAC being the red headed step child of big time college sports , because throughout the 1960’s - 1990’s , they seemingly were the #1 conference in all respects
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Adapt or die.
 
#97      

IlliniSaluki

IlliniSaluki
IL metro east burbs of St. Louis
IlliniSaluki
#98      

IlliniFaninHoosierLand

IlliniFaninHoosierLand
IlliniFaninHoosierLand
IlliniSaluki said:
Why would they leave the MVFC? Or are they just not competitive in it and are looking to go down a bit in competition?
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My guess is that it may have something to do with travel. In the OVC, their furthest road trip for football would likely be to Tennessee Tech, which is just over an 8 hour drive from Macomb. It's nearly 10 hours to both of the North Dakota schools in the MVFC.
 
#99      

Champaign Toast

C
Fan since Kiwane Garris
Champaign Toast
Wonder whether Chicago State will now take a crack at applying for Summit League membership. Summit League, which has all of CSU's varsity sports offerings, is down to 9 full members.
 
#100      

IlliniFaninHoosierLand

IlliniFaninHoosierLand
IlliniFaninHoosierLand
Champaign Toast said:
Wonder whether Chicago State will now take a crack at applying for Summit League membership. Summit League, which has all of CSU's varsity sports offerings, is down to 9 full members.
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Problem may not be Chicago State wanting to apply. It would likely be more about whether the Summit League would even want them at this point.
 
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