Illini Basketball 2023-2024

Status
Not open for further replies.
#26      
Battle89
NarrowJ said:
I think/hope this season is going to be very different than last (in a good way!).

Last year, I think we all had mixed feelings going in. Then, we got hot early and everyone got excited. Some inner turmoil happened and things kind of fell apart for a while. Nobody could shoot, and the guys that could, were launching it off one foot while falling out of bounds with 21 seconds left on the shot clock for some odd reason. Did well enough to make the tournament as a middle seed and lost in the 1st round.

This year, seems most folks think we'll be terrible. And, I think that will only get worse as we have some tough games early on and the team will still be beginning to gel. Which, hopefully, instead of the turmoil we'll actually see that gelling take place instead and guys will shoot with confidence and with adequate shot selection. Ty (or someone) will step up and into the PG role and flourish, and then we finish the season strong, get a little better seed this time, no under-seeded team staring at us from the other side of our region bracket, and we can make a deep run.

Can I get an I-L-L?
Click to expand...
I-N-I. Love the enthusiasm (sincerely) but I am envisioning a bunch of close game lost at the line. Hopefully we have a lot of big leads and this doesn't happen. Still have nightmares of Pruitt in the Gordon game.

College Sports Lol GIF by SEC Network
 
#27      
grue2
NarrowJ said:
I think/hope this season is going to be very different than last (in a good way!).

Last year, I think we all had mixed feelings going in. Then, we got hot early and everyone got excited. Some inner turmoil happened and things kind of fell apart for a while. Nobody could shoot, and the guys that could, were launching it off one foot while falling out of bounds with 21 seconds left on the shot clock for some odd reason. Did well enough to make the tournament as a middle seed and lost in the 1st round.

This year, seems most folks think we'll be terrible. And, I think that will only get worse as we have some tough games early on and the team will still be beginning to gel. Which, hopefully, instead of the turmoil we'll actually see that gelling take place instead and guys will shoot with confidence and with adequate shot selection. Ty (or someone) will step up and into the PG role and flourish, and then we finish the season strong, get a little better seed this time, no under-seeded team staring at us from the other side of our region bracket, and we can make a deep run.

Can I get an I-L-L?
Click to expand...
I finally understand the association between Kool-Aid and Illinios fans. Drinking lots of Kool-Aid makes you ILL.
 
#30      
zentrails
Battle89 said:
I-N-I. Love the enthusiasm (sincerely) but I am envisioning a bunch of close game lost at the line. Hopefully we have a lot of big leads and this doesn't happen. Still have nightmares of Pruitt in the Gordon game.

College Sports Lol GIF by SEC Network
Click to expand...
Villanova just sayin' V tech also
 
#31      
Second place is 1st loser
NarrowJ said:
I think/hope this season is going to be very different than last (in a good way!).

Last year, I think we all had mixed feelings going in. Then, we got hot early and everyone got excited. Some inner turmoil happened and things kind of fell apart for a while. Nobody could shoot, and the guys that could, were launching it off one foot while falling out of bounds with 21 seconds left on the shot clock for some odd reason. Did well enough to make the tournament as a middle seed and lost in the 1st round.

This year, seems most folks think we'll be terrible. And, I think that will only get worse as we have some tough games early on and the team will still be beginning to gel. Which, hopefully, instead of the turmoil we'll actually see that gelling take place instead and guys will shoot with confidence and with adequate shot selection. Ty (or someone) will step up and into the PG role and flourish, and then we finish the season strong, get a little better seed this time, no under-seeded team staring at us from the other side of our region bracket, and we can make a deep run.

Can I get an I-L-L?
Click to expand...
Who thinks that we'll be terrible? I don't think that there is one person that thinks that we'll be terrible. There are unknowns. No doubt about that. There's a ton of talent, no doubt about that. Will the pieces fit together? That's where the questions are. Much of that revolves around one position. We'll know more in about a month and a half.
 
#32      
Second place is 1st loser
Battle89 said:
I-N-I. Love the enthusiasm (sincerely) but I am envisioning a bunch of close game lost at the line. Hopefully we have a lot of big leads and this doesn't happen. Still have nightmares of Pruitt in the Gordon game.

College Sports Lol GIF by SEC Network
Click to expand...
No sense in worrying about that until we see what five they go with late in games. I don't worry as much about foul shooting as I do about handling the press/pressure late in games. Not that we have the same level of guard play as Purdue, but last year, they faltered down the stretch when athletic teams pressures them. Heck, we came back from 20+ down. It's turnovers late that will be what to focus on.
 
#33      
RabidDawgClassic
Second place is 1st loser said:
No sense in worrying about that until we see what five they go with late in games. I don't worry as much about foul shooting as I do about handling the press/pressure late in games. Not that we have the same level of guard play as Purdue, but last year, they faltered down the stretch when athletic teams pressures them. Heck, we came back from 20+ down. It's turnovers late that will be what to focus on.
Click to expand...
Too little emphasis is put on early and mid-game free throw shooting. 2021-22 Wisconsin won an inordinate amount of close games despite (arguably) having inferior talent across the board. But one thing the Badgers excelled at was free throw shooting. Had they missed free throws at an “Illinois rate” in the early and mid-stages, those two point wins they collected would’ve likely been ten point losses. They put themselves in position to win those close games by not giving away free points during the man stretches of the game.
 
#34      
Illini 993
My biggest concern with Ty is in tight games late. Even if he is good enough against pressure, it still means that our best ball handler can't shoot free throws well. Hopefully, he has improved his FT shooting, but the above stats from high school don't inspire confidence. This is where having multiple decent ball handlers on the court with him will be a must. IMHO only
 
#35      
Travis1173
@alaskaillini just saw your response to my expectations in the last thread. Love that you created a definition for “competing for conference championships” and then said my expectation against that definition was unrealistic.

Really here nor there. If I didn’t want my comment to get taken out of the intended context I should have provided it (even though the poster I replied to clearly got my point).

I don’t expect us to finish in the top 4 of the big ten every year. When I think of competing for a big ten title, I mean that I expect a coach to put a great product on the floor that if a few more breaks go their way, they win the conference. Some years that might mean finishing 8th. Some years that might mean finishing 3rd. Sports are weird and weird things happen. People get hurt, sometimes it’s just not your night, etc.

I expect to be mentioned every year as a national team to be aware of. Kind of like the top 15 all time program we are.
 
#36      
aaeismacgychel
Travis1173 said:
@alaskaillini just saw your response to my expectations in the last thread. Love that you created a definition for “competing for conference championships” and then said my expectation against that definition was unrealistic.

Really here nor there. If I didn’t want my comment to get taken out of the intended context I should have provided it (even though the poster I replied to clearly got my point).

I don’t expect us to finish in the top 4 of the big ten every year. When I think of competing for a big ten title, I mean that I expect a coach to put a great product on the floor that if a few more breaks go their way, they win the conference. Some years that might mean finishing 8th. Some years that might mean finishing 3rd. Sports are weird and weird things happen. People get hurt, sometimes it’s just not your night, etc.

I expect to be mentioned every year as a national team to be aware of. Kind of like the top 15 all time program we are.
Click to expand...
To further your point, here are the hit rates of our past several coaches in terms of a Top 4 B10 finish and a B10 championship:
Underwood: Top 4 (3 of 6 - 50%) Champ (1 of 6 - 17%)
Groce: Top 4 (0 of 5 - 0%) Champ (0 of 5 - 0%)
Weber: Top 4 (6 of 9 - 67%) Champ (2 of 9 - 22%)
Self: Top 4 (3 of 3 - 100%) Champ (2 of 3 - 67%)
Kruger: Top 4 (3 of 4 - 75%) Champ (1 of 4 - 25%)

So if we exclude Groce, who was clearly a poor hire, in the 16 seasons prior to Groce, the combined trio of Kruger-Self-Weber had a Top 4 in B10 hit rate of 12 in 16 (75%) and a B10 Champ hit rate of 5 in 16 (31%). Underwood started with a much lower floor than those coach and so if you omit his first 2 years as Groce adjacent, he's basically right on that average.

Overall, the expectation that we finish in the Top 4 of the B10 each season and compete for a B10 championship year in and year out is fairly justified by the numbers. Basically 3 out of every 4 years we should be a Top 4 B10 team and we should win a B10 Championship at least 1 out of every 4 years. That's pretty much program standard. This isn't our football team where saying "I expect a Top 4 finish in B10 play" is wonderful to desire but just isn't supported in any way by our past 25years of play. It's our basketball team, which over the past 25 seasons, Groce excluded, has pretty much shown that desiring a B10 title contender most seasons should be the standard. When you have sustained success, the bar for your program should be much higher than a program with average or no success.

So, just to summarize, unless you are a fan who thinks our basketball team under Groce is a more representative sample of Illinois basketball than Kruger-Self-Weber-Underwood, then your expectation should be competing for B10 titles and Top 4 conference finishes year in and year out, because that's what those coaches have delivered.
 
#37      
Calvin
Dr Copejam said:
I’m a huge Ty fan, but I can’t help but think that his lack of shooting from the field and free throw shooting is going to kill us. I hope I’m wrong.
Click to expand...

Kill us is probably (hopefully?) too strong. If he's unable to improve his shooting, then he'll be on the bench with DGL or someone else closing out close games where we can't afford a bad 1:1 or even double bonus situation. While it's not ideal, we've had freshman PGs in late game situations plenty of times. As long as they're good decision makers, can handle pressure (both on-ball and mental), it should be fine. The early reports on DGL are pretty good. I'm of the opinion that freshmen are going to make freshmen mistakes, and that's ok. Better over the course of a season to give them some leash and let them learn if/when they make some. You need guys with confidence and experience to make a run in March, and that comes from being in those situations.
 
#38      
Illinicpa14
aaeismacgychel said:
To further your point, here are the hit rates of our past several coaches in terms of a Top 4 B10 finish and a B10 championship:
Underwood: Top 4 (3 of 6 - 50%) Champ (1 of 6 - 17%)
Groce: Top 4 (0 of 5 - 0%) Champ (0 of 5 - 0%)
Weber: Top 4 (6 of 9 - 67%) Champ (2 of 9 - 22%)
Self: Top 4 (3 of 3 - 100%) Champ (2 of 3 - 67%)
Kruger: Top 4 (3 of 4 - 75%) Champ (1 of 4 - 25%)

So if we exclude Groce, who was clearly a poor hire, in the 16 seasons prior to Groce, the combined trio of Kruger-Self-Weber had a Top 4 in B10 hit rate of 12 in 16 (75%) and a B10 Champ hit rate of 5 in 16 (31%). Underwood started with a much lower floor than those coach and so if you omit his first 2 years as Groce adjacent, he's basically right on that average.

Overall, the expectation that we finish in the Top 4 of the B10 each season and compete for a B10 championship year in and year out is fairly justified by the numbers. Basically 3 out of every 4 years we should be a Top 4 B10 team and we should win a B10 Championship at least 1 out of every 4 years. That's pretty much program standard. This isn't our football team where saying "I expect a Top 4 finish in B10 play" is wonderful to desire but just isn't supported in any way by our past 25years of play. It's our basketball team, which over the past 25 seasons, Groce excluded, has pretty much shown that desiring a B10 title contender most seasons should be the standard. When you have sustained success, the bar for your program should be much higher than a program with average or no success.

So, just to summarize, unless you are a fan who thinks our basketball team under Groce is a more representative sample of Illinois basketball than Kruger-Self-Weber-Underwood, then your expectation should be competing for B10 titles and Top 4 conference finishes year in and year out, because that's what those coaches have delivered.
Click to expand...
Don’t disagree with macro points but there are more teams under groce and underwood, not to say those self teams wouldn’t be top 4 adding in Nebraska, Maryland, and Rutgers lol.

A top 4 finish particularly after this year is almost going to guarantee a top 3-4 seed adding in the west coast teams that are solid basketball additions.
 
#40      
Calvin
Illinicpa14 said:
Don’t disagree with macro points but there are more teams under groce and underwood, not to say those self teams wouldn’t be top 4 adding in Nebraska, Maryland, and Rutgers lol.

A top 4 finish particularly after this year is almost going to guarantee a top 3-4 seed adding in the west coast teams that are solid basketball additions.
Click to expand...

Having been a fan through all those coaches, I don't really like seeing coaches getting credit for prior teams when looking back at history and trying to make judgments. Maybe in the current era, a coach can turn around a team in a single season, but if you look at how a coach inherited a team, it distorts those stats considerably. In particular, Kruger built what Self inherited, and Weber inherited what Self built. On the flip side, Underwood inherited a mess.

On both points, though, I agree. Adding schools makes it much tougher, and most years Illinois is expected to be in the mix.
 
#45      
aaeismacgychel
Dan said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1711760563162710230
Click to expand...
Underwood repping Nico is definitely interesting, especially naming him second. Makes me think that contrary to insider belief, he might actually get some chances early. Whether he plays well in those opportunities is a whole other conversation, but it sounds like he might've earned himself some "prove it" time from Brad...
 
#48      
skyIdub
Bubbles going for the tousled bed head look.

Bruce_Eats_Jarling_s.0.gif
 
#49      
FrankNitty30
NarrowJ said:
I think/hope this season is going to be very different than last (in a good way!).

Last year, I think we all had mixed feelings going in. Then, we got hot early and everyone got excited. Some inner turmoil happened and things kind of fell apart for a while. Nobody could shoot, and the guys that could, were launching it off one foot while falling out of bounds with 21 seconds left on the shot clock for some odd reason. Did well enough to make the tournament as a middle seed and lost in the 1st round.

This year, seems most folks think we'll be terrible. And, I think that will only get worse as we have some tough games early on and the team will still be beginning to gel. Which, hopefully, instead of the turmoil we'll actually see that gelling take place instead and guys will shoot with confidence and with adequate shot selection. Ty (or someone) will step up and into the PG role and flourish, and then we finish the season strong, get a little better seed this time, no under-seeded team staring at us from the other side of our region bracket, and we can make a deep run.

Can I get an I-L-L?
Click to expand...
NO ONE thinks we will be terrible.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back