@alaskaillini just saw your response to my expectations in the last thread. Love that you created a definition for “competing for conference championships” and then said my expectation against that definition was unrealistic.
Really here nor there. If I didn’t want my comment to get taken out of the intended context I should have provided it (even though the poster I replied to clearly got my point).
I don’t expect us to finish in the top 4 of the big ten every year. When I think of competing for a big ten title, I mean that I expect a coach to put a great product on the floor that if a few more breaks go their way, they win the conference. Some years that might mean finishing 8th. Some years that might mean finishing 3rd. Sports are weird and weird things happen. People get hurt, sometimes it’s just not your night, etc.
I expect to be mentioned every year as a national team to be aware of. Kind of like the top 15 all time program we are.
To further your point, here are the hit rates of our past several coaches in terms of a Top 4 B10 finish and a B10 championship:
Underwood: Top 4 (3 of 6 - 50%) Champ (1 of 6 - 17%)
Groce: Top 4 (0 of 5 - 0%) Champ (0 of 5 - 0%)
Weber: Top 4 (6 of 9 - 67%) Champ (2 of 9 - 22%)
Self: Top 4 (3 of 3 - 100%) Champ (2 of 3 - 67%)
Kruger: Top 4 (3 of 4 - 75%) Champ (1 of 4 - 25%)
So if we exclude Groce, who was clearly a poor hire, in the 16 seasons prior to Groce, the combined trio of Kruger-Self-Weber had a Top 4 in B10 hit rate of 12 in 16 (75%) and a B10 Champ hit rate of 5 in 16 (31%). Underwood started with a much lower floor than those coach and so if you omit his first 2 years as Groce adjacent, he's basically right on that average.
Overall, the expectation that we finish in the Top 4 of the B10 each season and compete for a B10 championship year in and year out is fairly justified by the numbers. Basically 3 out of every 4 years we should be a Top 4 B10 team and we should win a B10 Championship at least 1 out of every 4 years. That's pretty much program standard. This isn't our football team where saying "I expect a Top 4 finish in B10 play" is wonderful to desire but just isn't supported in any way by our past 25years of play. It's our basketball team, which over the past 25 seasons, Groce excluded, has pretty much shown that desiring a B10 title contender most seasons should be the standard. When you have sustained success, the bar for your program should be much higher than a program with average or no success.
So, just to summarize, unless you are a fan who thinks our basketball team under Groce is a more representative sample of Illinois basketball than Kruger-Self-Weber-Underwood, then your expectation should be competing for B10 titles and Top 4 conference finishes year in and year out, because that's what those coaches have delivered.