Pregame: Illinois vs Wisconsin, Saturday, October 21st, 2:30pm CT, FS1

Status
Not open for further replies.
#128      
As of Wednesday morning:

1697628647527.png
 
#130      
Wisconsin is still a balanced team running the Air Raid. Right now 186 Rushing Yards/Game and 206 Passing Yards/Game. It is more about the yards gained than the passing/rushing attempts. If Wisconsin can get away with running the ball, throwing screens/short passes for gains than Wisconsin will look to exploit it and take some shots to keep the D honest.
It seems to me that we have struggled against screens and short passes to backs out of the backfield.
 
#131      
Seems like the ESPN matchup predictor is a bit lopsided, given the 2.5 point spread on the game. Of course, if I recall correctly, the matchup predictor showed the Illini at over 50% win probabilty for the Purdue game.

1697636713197.png
 
#132      
Seems like the ESPN matchup predictor is a bit lopsided, given the 2.5 point spread on the game. Of course, if I recall correctly, the matchup predictor showed the Illini at over 50% win probabilty for the Purdue game.

View attachment 28500
My view of the ESPN matchup predictor: garbage in, garbage out. I doubt very much that model has much predictive value in itself.

[EDIT: I could simply truncate this post to "My view of ESPN: garbage in, garbage out" and it would be just as valid.]
 
#133      
my Wisconsin Is Gonna Be Mid theory looked like it was in trouble for a second there.

we can't take anything for granted at this point though. usually a young qb making his first start is a good situation to go against, but i bear the scars of many such starts going shockingly well against the illini.

need feagin healthy, he made a lot of our short yardage stuff work last week.

i know bielema will do anything for his coaching buddies. well now's the time to avenge his buddy paul chryst.
Hopefully he doesn't Mertz us.
 
#134      
Seems like the ESPN matchup predictor is a bit lopsided, given the 2.5 point spread on the game. Of course, if I recall correctly, the matchup predictor showed the Illini at over 50% win probabilty for the Purdue game.

View attachment 28500
Sportsline has something similar (I will refrain from disclosing any commentary, as it is paid content). They have Wisconsin winning in 63% of the simulations, which is greater than implied odds of 57.1% from the ML. They also have simulations covering the spread 59% of time (at -2.5) compared to implied odds of 52.6%. As a result, they are stating that the best bets are taking Wisconsin ML and more so ATS. However, as you indicate, I take these models with a lot of pause, especially since Wisconsin will have their backup QB starting (granted that has spelled doom for Illini in past). I will say, ESPN is the last place I look for anything chalk related. They have such a bad track record.

The key to me in the game is the front 4 taking away Wisconsin's running game and Illini offense being able to control the ball on the ground. If both of those things happen, I think Illini will pull off the minor "upset". Make Wisconsin win the game by throwing the ball.
 
#135      
Another benefit of sitting on the west side is not having to look into the sun. The west stands will also be shaded most, if not all, of the game. Whether that is a positive or a negative will depend on the temperature on Saturday (mid to high 50s forecasted).

If you do end up on the east side, avoid section 109 as that is where they seat the opposing fans. Wisconsin travels well so I wouldn't be surprised to see them spill over some into the adjacent sections and possibly up into the balcony in 209.
We’ve enjoyed the East balcony for many years. It’s easy to grab good last minute single game seats there. However we chose West for season tickets for the shade as well as the much more convenient concessions and restrooms.
 
#136      
We’ve enjoyed the East balcony for many years. It’s easy to grab good last minute single game seats there. However we chose West for season tickets for the shade as well as the much more convenient concessions and restrooms.
I think the concessions and restrooms are the best reason for West Balcony. I have had season tickets in East Balcony for 14 years now, and I personally love the sun (for B1G season when the weather gets colder...late August/early September games stink in the sun though. So definitely a double edged sword). My issue is that I always forget to put on sufficient sun screen, so I end up looking like Harvey Dent/Two-Face for about 3-4 days.
 
#137      
I think the concessions and restrooms are the best reason for West Balcony.m
One more reason. It’s a compact setup with just 13 rows, so the open breezy concession mezzanine is just steps away, extending the length of the field. You can see the scoreboard and even much of the field if you’re tall and walking/standing near the edge. It has a cozy feel, like a poor man’s skybox.
 
#138      
It seems to me that we have struggled against screens and short passes to backs out of the backfield.
No doubt

Wisconsin spreads the ball around to a number of guys. Five guys have 15 or more catches with RB Allen having the 2nd most receptions.

Key for both sides will be stopping the run and see which QB turns the ball over. Locke is inexperienced with Altmyer still gaining experience. Wisconsin would be smart to QB Spy Altmyer. Altmyer tends to miss a few easy throws, throw into double coverage and gets happy feet and takes the sack instead of throwing it away more games than not so far. Locke has a full week to prepare and while I like the Illinois defense they aren't the quality he faced against Iowa. He will have to earn it on the road. No clue what to expect but hope for another big W :illinois:
 
#140      
Seems like the ESPN matchup predictor is a bit lopsided, given the 2.5 point spread on the game. Of course, if I recall correctly, the matchup predictor showed the Illini at over 50% win probabilty for the Purdue game.

View attachment 28500
What was it for the Maryland game?

Edit: Answer below, but I get your point. Seems a bit off given the spread.

Screen Shot 2023-10-18 at 2.00.20 PM.png
 
Last edited:
#141      
Can one of you football experts explain why Luke can’t literally play under center? Aren’t we sometimes handicapped in that respect?

It seems like it must be either a skill issue with our center, a skill issue with Luke, or a coaching philosophy.
Shotgun gives Luke more time to check down his receivers, evidently coaches feel he is slow on reads. Also helps on RPO plays.
 
#142      
Braedyn??? Tanner???? Wow Wisconsin.

Give me a solid Luke or Tommy. Kurt, Jeff, Tony or Jack.

But really. Braedyn and Tanner????

Get outta here.

Illini romp this Homecoming. 31-10
No way Illinois scores 31 points!

The defense better bring their big boy pants cause I am expecting to see something like 15-12, 12-9.

Just like Wisconsin-Iowa game last week
 
#143      
Hello my fellow Illini friends! Thanks for reading my 1st post, lol. Been reading the board for a very very long time. I just bought my flight to Chitown tomorrow and will be catching the Amtrak down to Champaign. I plan on attending my first ever football game in Memorial for this game. My daughter and her BF will be attending their first Illini game with me, they are both PhD students at UI. I haven't bought tickets yet, waiting on a few people to get back to me so I know how many to procure. Having not looked anywhere yet what are my best options for 3-5 tickets? UI ticket office I know, I've never bought anything off of a secondary site. Any recommendations? Also thinking of biking to the game from their place in Urbana, I assume there is an area at the stadium to lock them up? Would love to hit up a tailgate party, Grange Grove at the very least. Look forward to some kind help, and feel free to DM me..... Thanks!
My wife and I ride our bikes from SE Urbana every game. There are tons of places right by the stadium to lock your bikes. There are bike racks on three sides of the ARC and the rod iron fence that wraps around the stadium makes for a good, secure spot. You do need lights if you get to far away from the main campus but like I said we do it every game. P.S. we are both very athletic 69-year-olds and former Illini athletes!!! Go ILLINI
 
#144      
My view of the ESPN matchup predictor: garbage in, garbage out. I doubt very much that model has much predictive value in itself.

[EDIT: I could simply truncate this post to "My view of ESPN: garbage in, garbage out" and it would be just as valid.]
I can honestly say I NEVER watch it anymore and haven’t really in quite a few years
 
#145      
I can honestly say I NEVER watch it (ESPN) anymore and haven’t really in quite a few years
ESPN: The Total Sports Network

Hah!!!

- piss-poor coverage of major league baseball
- extreme NCAA favoritism of the ACC and SEC conferences
- 10 hours per day of annoying "talking heads" repetitively covering the NBA (which I don't watch)
- 10 hours per day of annoying "talking heads" covering the NFL in way too much detail. (Plus, I watch the NFL only when the Bears are competitive/good)

I'm with you. I watch ESPN for perhaps 10-15 minutes per week. That's it! It's peek contribution to the sports world was the decade of the 1980's, and it's been downhill ever since.
 
#146      
I can honestly say I NEVER watch it anymore and haven’t really in quite a few years
I can't determine whether ESPN broadly or the nepotistic tandem of Cris and Jac Collinsworth on SNF annoys me more.

[I will admit, however that I use the ESPN scoreboards and gamecasts online regularly. I feel deep shame simply writing that. Someone please steer my lazy a$$ toward an alternate source of comparable quality.]
 
#147      
My wife and I ride our bikes from SE Urbana every game. There are tons of places right by the stadium to lock your bikes. There are bike racks on three sides of the ARC and the rod iron fence that wraps around the stadium makes for a good, secure spot. You do need lights if you get to far away from the main campus but like I said we do it every game. P.S. we are both very athletic 69-year-olds and former Illini athletes!!! Go ILLINI
Yours has my vote for Inspiring Post of the Day. I'm barely a decade behind you and aspire to write that post when I'm 69. Gotta go deadlift...
 
#149      
I think the concessions and restrooms are the best reason for West Balcony. I have had season tickets in East Balcony for 14 years now, and I personally love the sun (for B1G season when the weather gets colder...late August/early September games stink in the sun though. So definitely a double edged sword). My issue is that I always forget to put on sufficient sun screen, so I end up looking like Harvey Dent/Two-Face for about 3-4 days.
I dunno. It's hard to beat those 1924 horse troughs in the s end zone.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back