Illini debut at #23 in the NET Rankings, making us a Quad 1 opponent no matter where the game is played. I wanted to break down our remaining schedule using the NET rankings, but here is a quick reminder:
Quad 1: #1-30 Home, #1-50 Neutral, #1-75 Away
Quad 2: #31-75 Home, #51-100 Neutral, #76-135 Away
Quad 3: #76-160 Home, #101-200 Neutral, #136-240 Away
Quad 4: #161-353 Home, #201-353 Neutral, #241-353 Away
And, just for a comparison to ground everyone, here were our 2021 and 2022 resumes that earned us a #1 seed and #4 seed, respectively, as of Selection Sunday in both years:
2020-21: #1 SEED
NET Ranking: #3
Overall: 23-6
Q1: 12-5
Q2: 5-1
Q3: 4-0
Q4: 2-0
Home: 11-2
Away: 9-3
Neutral: 3-1
Top 5 Wins: at #4 Michigan, vs. #6 Iowa (Indy), vs. #6 Iowa, at #8 Ohio State, vs. #8 Ohio State (Indy)
2021-22: #4 SEED
NET Ranking: #15
Overall: 22-9
Q1: 6-6
Q2: 6-3
Q3: 6-0
Q4: 4-0
Home: 14-3
Away: 7-4
Neutral: 1-2
Top 5 Wins: at #14 Iowa, vs. #14 Iowa, vs. #24 Wisconsin, at #34 Michigan, at #36 Michigan State
As you can see above, the strength of the conference in the eyes of the NET really has quite a say in our seeding. Thus, these next two games vs. FAU in NYC and at Tennessee are golden opportunities.
Anyway, here are our games by Quad category!
RESULTS
W vs. #290 Eastern Illinois (Q4)
W vs. #106 Oakland (Q3)
L vs. #10 Marquette (Q1)
W vs. #291 Valparaiso (Q4)
W vs. #206 Southern (Q4)
W vs. #324 Western Illinois (Q4)
W at #72 Rutgers (Q1)
UPCOMING GAMES
Quad 1
at #5 Purdue
vs. #5 Purdue
vs. #11 FAU (New York, NY)
at #17 Tennessee
at #20 Ohio State
vs. #25 Iowa
at #25 Iowa
at #26 Wisconsin
at #48 Northwestern
at #51 Michigan State
Quad 2
vs. #48 Northwestern
vs. #51 Michigan State
vs. #72 Rutgers
at #89 Michigan
Quad 3
vs. #76 Nebraska
vs. #89 Michigan
vs. #114 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
vs. #136 Colgate
vs. #137 Indiana
vs. #157 Minnesota
at #170 Penn State
at #210 Maryland
Quad 4
vs. #210 Maryland
vs. #300 Fairleigh Dickinson
Obviously these rankings will change a lot as the season goes on, but a couple thoughts...
1. We need to cure our Maryland and PSU bugs ASAP. There are three opportunities to pick up 3 Quad 3 or worse losses vs. these teams, two of them on the road. It probably shouldn't given how both have played, but that worries me ... mostly Maryland.
2. The Mizzou game in St. Louis is simply a must-win. Forget the obvious revenge angle ... you win or die trying before you spend Christmas thinking about how your biggest rival just handed you a Quad 3 loss for the holidays...
3. On a more optimistic note, we have played very well on the road in the Underwood Era, and there are a lot of great opportunities for Quad 1 wins on the road!
4. If we really want to get a top seed and make a deep NCAA run - and I think we are indeed capable of this! - I think we have to win at least two of the Tennessee, FAU and Purdue (x2) games. All four are unlikely to drop very far in the rankings this year, and these are truly signature wins - three out of four of which are away from home.
Seeing these rankings come out and analyzing them honestly got me even more excited for this team's potential! Say what you want about March Madness, the statistics don't lie ... over time, higher seeds simply have a much, much better chance of making a deep run. And given we have bowed out early twice with a top 4 seed, I would say we are due!
