Chicago Bears 2023-2024

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#851      
john1952
#853      
GILL-INOIS
Interested to see what direction Poles will take the team this offseason. I see it as a package deal with coach and Fields....staying or going. Hearing the Bears could get more for the #1 pick this season than even last season. Bears are few years away whether they draft a QB or keep Fields. Passing on having the option to draft a QB of choice #1 for one season is hard enough let alone two years. Poles made this team better by trading away the #1 pick last season and I see the team getting better whether they draft a QB or trade down and add more quality players.
 
#854      
mattcoldagelli
A really good write-up from The Ringer. Ultimately lands on the side of chasing the rookie QB contract, which is hard to argue with from a pure numbers/risk management perspective:

So if risk will be present, it’s best to offset that risk with maximal reward: which brings us back to the quarterback selected with the first pick. There might be a future top-10, top-five quarterback awaiting the lucky team at the top of this draft—heck, there might be two. Even though Fields has much more room for development than the average third-year quarterback, his ceiling is still lower than that of younger, fresher unknowns like Williams and Maye. The benefit of hitting on a high-tail outcome for Fields is moderate: You’ve got a fringe top-10 quarterback on a second contract. The benefit of hitting on a high-tail outcome with Williams or Maye is enormous: a C.J. Stroud–, Joe Burrow–, Jalen Hurts–like impact on a franchise. A swift and unstoppable catapult into contention.

It's a compelling argument. I think it starts to stumble a bit if they keep Eberflus. Isn't the majority of the argument for why you'd keep Eberflus continuity? I dunno. In the hands of a capable organization, this would feel like a "two great options" scenario, but this is the Bears.
 
#855      
EyeoftheIllini
I keep going back and forth on what Poles will do, but I keep coming back to whether Poles will actually pass a second time on the #1 pick and choosing HIS franchise QB. All these front office guys (and coaches and players) have large egos. I just have my doubts whether he’ll pass again on a chance to put his stamp on the team.

As much as I’d love the haul the Bears would get from trading the #1 pick, this is a near perfect scenario for bringing in a potential franchise QB. The team isn’t terrible with the D playing very well since Sweat came on board, so not a Bryce Young or Trevor Lawrence situation. They’ve also got a second first rounder (likely 10 to 14) that can bring in another starter. If they can get a second rounder for Fields, it will replace the one traded away earlier. I think the landing spot for Fields could be Atlanta (fits their system), and, if so, would be top third of second round. Then you have the new rookie QB contract. Only thing keeping this from being a perfect situation is I’m not real confident about current staff’s ability to develop young QB.
 
#856      
Roundball Sage
EyeoftheIllini said:
I keep going back and forth on what Poles will do
Click to expand...

This guy inherited one (heck) of a situation here.

There’s still a chance that Fields could become a Top Five league QB one day. There’s also the chance that he backslides from here.

And trying to figure out what the hot QBs coming out of college ball are going to do with they play among The Big Boys is virtually impossible. So many ‘can’t miss’ guys have flamed out with mediocre to poor careers.

In other words... it’s easy for anyone to make a mistake here. The only real solid decision point is the money that would be due Fields and if one thinks he’s worth that and wants to risk it. And as already said... that could turn out to be a mistake. Or the best money you could invest.

But whatever happens... at least the Bears are not Carolina. What a mess over there.

The best course of action might be to consult the Magic 8 ball and see what it says. Or maybe, two out of three?
 
#857      
Ramrod2010
I accept this is most likely stupid... What about signing Cousins on like a 2/3 year contract while drafting Williams (or whatever QB prospect they think fits best)?

I get the whole rationale on moving on from Fields in money. But Cousins, while potentially expensive, could be cheaper than he was originally going to be after getting injured.

Gives a couple of developmental years for the incoming QB while definitely moving the team into a win now mode.

And for what little it's worth, I think Penix is going to be solid in the league. Although I have a thing for lefty QBs.
 
#858      
eas23
mattcoldagelli said:
A really good write-up from The Ringer. Ultimately lands on the side of chasing the rookie QB contract, which is hard to argue with from a pure numbers/risk management perspective:

So if risk will be present, it’s best to offset that risk with maximal reward: which brings us back to the quarterback selected with the first pick. There might be a future top-10, top-five quarterback awaiting the lucky team at the top of this draft—heck, there might be two. Even though Fields has much more room for development than the average third-year quarterback, his ceiling is still lower than that of younger, fresher unknowns like Williams and Maye. The benefit of hitting on a high-tail outcome for Fields is moderate: You’ve got a fringe top-10 quarterback on a second contract. The benefit of hitting on a high-tail outcome with Williams or Maye is enormous: a C.J. Stroud–, Joe Burrow–, Jalen Hurts–like impact on a franchise. A swift and unstoppable catapult into contention.

It's a compelling argument. I think it starts to stumble a bit if they keep Eberflus. Isn't the majority of the argument for why you'd keep Eberflus continuity? I dunno. In the hands of a capable organization, this would feel like a "two great options" scenario, but this is the Bears.
Click to expand...
I'm familiar with Solak's work, and I'm surprised he doesn't lean more into the numbers in this piece (other than sack rate). He's not usually a vibes guy. He's usually the guy who would say "yeah but his dvoa is still 24th" or whatever. I guess that's part of what makes Fields unique.
 
#859      
GILL-INOIS
Ramrod2010 said:
I accept this is most likely stupid... What about signing Cousins on like a 2/3 year contract while drafting Williams (or whatever QB prospect they think fits best)?
Click to expand...

I don't see it happening but the Bears can go a number of routes. Cousins coming off an Achilles injury plus giving him multiple years scares me off. If Bears draft Williams or another QB in top area they aren't sitting for a whole season.


Ramrod2010 said:
I get the whole rationale on moving on from Fields in money. But Cousins, while potentially expensive, could be cheaper than he was originally going to be after getting injured.

Gives a couple of developmental years for the incoming QB while definitely moving the team into a win now mode.

And for what little it's worth, I think Penix is going to be solid in the league. Although I have a thing for lefty QBs.
Click to expand...

It is fun playing around and the Bears have so many options. Example just off of your Penix comment. Bears could get a bigger haul for the 1st pick this season without sliding down as far plus still have the other top 15 pick. The Bears can land two quality players in the 1st round plus ton of assets. Bears can trade Fields and land a 2nd rounder plus maybe little more. Bears could still keep Fields, take option on him and still draft a QB in 2nd round such as Penix, Nix, Sanders, etc.
 
#860      
IanKEvans2
EyeoftheIllini said:
I keep going back and forth on what Poles will do, but I keep coming back to whether Poles will actually pass a second time on the #1 pick and choosing HIS franchise QB. All these front office guys (and coaches and players) have large egos. I just have my doubts whether he’ll pass again on a chance to put his stamp on the team.

As much as I’d love the haul the Bears would get from trading the #1 pick, this is a near perfect scenario for bringing in a potential franchise QB. The team isn’t terrible with the D playing very well since Sweat came on board, so not a Bryce Young or Trevor Lawrence situation. They’ve also got a second first rounder (likely 10 to 14) that can bring in another starter. If they can get a second rounder for Fields, it will replace the one traded away earlier. I think the landing spot for Fields could be Atlanta (fits their system), and, if so, would be top third of second round. Then you have the new rookie QB contract. Only thing keeping this from being a perfect situation is I’m not real confident about current staff’s ability to develop young QB.
Click to expand...
My brain keeps hoping for a Caleb Williams #1 pick paired with the hiring of Eagles' OC Brian Johnson as head coach.
 
#861      
Illwinsagain
GILL-INOIS said:
I don't see it happening but the Bears can go a number of routes. Cousins coming off an Achilles injury plus giving him multiple years scares me off. If Bears draft Williams or another QB in top area they aren't sitting for a whole season.




It is fun playing around and the Bears have so many options. Example just off of your Penix comment. Bears could get a bigger haul for the 1st pick this season without sliding down as far plus still have the other top 15 pick. The Bears can land two quality players in the 1st round plus ton of assets. Bears can trade Fields and land a 2nd rounder plus maybe little more. Bears could still keep Fields, take option on him and still draft a QB in 2nd round such as Penix, Nix, Sanders, etc.
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This is where I am at. If they could get a 2024 high first, 2025 first and 2026 first (as I heard last night) and then draft Penix in the 2nd, while keeping Fields to start next year, I would have to go that way. Someone posted a stat a few weeks ago about Top 5 QBs and the lack of championships. I know a lot of that is that the QB is generally going to a terrible situation, but it also shows that good QBs can be found later in the draft.
 
#862      
EyeoftheIllini
GILL-INOIS said:
I don't see it happening but the Bears can go a number of routes. Cousins coming off an Achilles injury plus giving him multiple years scares me off. If Bears draft Williams or another QB in top area they aren't sitting for a whole season.




It is fun playing around and the Bears have so many options. Example just off of your Penix comment. Bears could get a bigger haul for the 1st pick this season without sliding down as far plus still have the other top 15 pick. The Bears can land two quality players in the 1st round plus ton of assets. Bears can trade Fields and land a 2nd rounder plus maybe little more. Bears could still keep Fields, take option on him and still draft a QB in 2nd round such as Penix, Nix, Sanders, etc.
Click to expand...
Bears don’t currently have a second round pick, but presumably would get one in haul if traded #1 pick. I don’t follow the mocks that closely, but Nix is usually in first round and I think Penix played himself into first on Monday. Pass on Sanders.

I don’t have a strong opinion about what direction they should go, but my feeling that they take QB at #1 keeps growing. If they can get more than what they got this year for pick then all bets might be off. But I think it will take what they got this year —essentially 3 firsts and 2 seconds — plus a player (maybe not as good as Moore, but a starter at a position of need) to trade pick
 
#863      
EyeoftheIllini
IanKEvans2 said:
My brain keeps hoping for a Caleb Williams #1 pick paired with the hiring of Eagles' OC Brian Johnson as head coach.
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I see people suggest on here that if they go QB #1 that Eberflus is gone. I don’t think that’s necessarily true at all. He’s got the D humming, which is always a plus with a young QB. I think what is more likely is a new OC or at least the hiring of a “QB guru” to work with Caleb.
 
#864      
GILL-INOIS
EyeoftheIllini said:
Bears don’t currently have a second round pick, but presumably would get one in haul if traded #1 pick. I don’t follow the mocks that closely, but Nix is usually in first round and I think Penix played himself into first on Monday. Pass on Sanders.
Click to expand...

I am aware they don't have a 2nd round pick at the current time. The scenario was more they could trade down from #1, trade down from other first round pick, trade Fields(would get a 2nd) or not or even just trade back into the 2nd round pick.

Few teams I noticed high up outside of #1 pick that have some higher up picks this season alone that could be included if Bears pull trigger and move down just a few slots. Not saying all of the picks just an example.

Cardinals have high round pick plus Texans 1st Round pick, 2nd round pick and three 3rd rounders
Giants high first round pick and two 2nd round picks
Washington high first round pick, two 2nd round picks, two 3rd round picks

Cardinals could finish anywhere between the 2nd and 7th pick after next week. Bears could swap #1 pick with Cardinals and end up with three first rounders this season plus ton more in return.


Penix, Sanders, Nix, etc are all just names to me but lower than the top few mentioned. Bunch of guys will be around in the 15-45 range if they want a QB farther down. I am not a Bears fan but hopefully it will work out for them.
 
#865      
EyeoftheIllini
GILL-INOIS said:
I am aware they don't have a 2nd round pick at the current time. The scenario was more they could trade down from #1, trade down from other first round pick, trade Fields(would get a 2nd) or not or even just trade back into the 2nd round pick.

Few teams I noticed high up outside of #1 pick that have some higher up picks this season alone that could be included if Bears pull trigger and move down just a few slots. Not saying all of the picks just an example.

Cardinals have high round pick plus Texans 1st Round pick, 2nd round pick and three 3rd rounders
Giants high first round pick and two 2nd round picks
Washington high first round pick, two 2nd round picks, two 3rd round picks

Cardinals could finish anywhere between the 2nd and 7th pick after next week. Bears could swap #1 pick with Cardinals and end up with three first rounders this season plus ton more in return.


Penix, Sanders, Nix, etc are all just names to me but lower than the top few mentioned. Bunch of guys will be around in the 15-45 range if they want a QB farther down. I am not a Bears fan but hopefully it will work out for them.
Click to expand...
I think AZ is gonna stick with Murray, but certainly won’t be lacking in offers from other teams. I’m just of the mind that unless Poles is blown away with an offer — and don’t think matching Carolina’s from last year will do it — he goes QB with #1. As a Bears fan I echo your sentiment and hope it works out very well for them whichever direction they go. 😃
 
#866      
GILL-INOIS
EyeoftheIllini said:
I think AZ is gonna stick with Murray, but certainly won’t be lacking in offers from other teams.
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All scenario on where they end up but I see them sticking with Murray as well. Without saying it before I meant if they would try to trade up for WR Harrison Jr

EyeoftheIllini said:
I’m just of the mind that unless Poles is blown away with an offer — and don’t think matching Carolina’s from last year will do it — he goes QB with #1. As a Bears fan I echo your sentiment and hope it works out very well for them whichever direction they go. 😃
Click to expand...
No doubt. If Poles believes Williams is the "clear talented choice" than they should draft him. His job will ultimately be decided by QB play over time
 
#867      
IlliniKat91
IanKEvans2 said:
My brain keeps hoping for a Caleb Williams #1 pick paired with the hiring of Eagles' OC Brian Johnson as head coach.
Click to expand...
With the way Williams has dodged the media at times, I'm not sure he can handle the Chicago market. Not saying moving on from Fields (with a new staff) wouldn't work out, but I'm not sold on Williams as the young QB to replace him.
 
#869      
Illinirog70
I like Bo Nix. Super accurate, throws a good deep ball, can run out of trouble if needed. throws to the right color jersey...

Trade the first pick, trade Fields, sign Nix with their own #10, and cash in the haul to strengthen the O-line, wide receiver, pass rush, etc.

Get a new OC and DC. sign Denver's QB after being cut. extend jaylon Johnson (pro bowler)

I know...wayyy too bold for the bears!

What's not to like??
 
#873      
Ryllini
I forgot I took the over on the season total wins for the Bears. I'm locked in.
 
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