On Feb 17th around noon (so before Maryland game starts) the committee tells us where the top 16 seeds stand with a few weeks to go. That will tell us a lot.
Bracketology
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Do you know if those numbers from after the tournament or at the time of the seeding?
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
The final Kenpom numbers are from after the tournament, that can be a little deceptive.
Sweet [Sorry FSU football
].Which of you nerds can provide some tourney success data based on both game metrics and season resume? Am just curious.
The top 30 in both adj off and def is cool (something Latulip brought to my attention last year) but I want something more comprehensive.
A team's own NET has very little impact on their seed. It's very resume based (mainly in terms of Quad 1 wins). Houston in 2022 was at least top 3 in NET before the tournament and top 10-15 in resume metrics like WAB and SOR. But since they did not have many Quad 1 wins they were somehow a 5 seed. It's also why mid-majors who have good efficiency metrics still get seeded in the 8-11 range.
Do you have a job?
Do you have a job?
I'll give the pre-tournament (and for fun, the pre-season) KenPom rankings for context:
UConn - 4 (27)
Tennessee - 5 (4)
Creighton - 13 (23)
St. Mary's - 12 (47) (they were 7 before their 26 point loss to Gonzaga in the WCC tournament)
West Virginia - 17 (73)
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Here are pre-tournament numbers. There isn't that much movement after the tournament starts in terms of Kenpom. I also added NET for an additional reference.
UConn finished 4 in KenPom and 8th in NET, they were a 4 seed. (Overperformed their seed)
Tennessee finished 5 in KenPom and 4th in NET, they were a 4 seed. (Performance on par with seed)
Creighton finished 13 in KenPom and 17th in NET, they were a 6 seed. (Overperformed their seed)
St Mary’s finished 11 in KenPom and 11th in NET, they were a 5 seed. (Performed on par with their seed)
West Virginia finished 17 in KenPom and 25th in NET, they were a 9 seed. (Performed on par with their seed)
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Lol, I work in valuation and financial consulting for large health systems and private physician practices. So, there are Wednesdays when I get home to my wife and kid at 9:00 pm and Fridays where I more or less just chill and monitor my email and crack open my first weekend beer at 2:30 pm.Do you have a job?
But I like to get all work I have to do done immediately and use the time I am waiting on coworkers or clients to pursue my true passion of looking up obscure Illini basketball information and posting it on Illinois Loyalty. Thanks.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
This is correct (and was a good question to ask), but the OP's point stands as well - none of those teams moved up a lot in KP during the tourney. UConn went from 4th to 1st but otherwise nobody gained more than 1 spot, and some went down.
4. UConn - 4th -> 1st
4. Tenn. - 5th -> 6th
6. Creighton - 13th -> 12th
5. St. Mary's - 12th -> 13th
9. WVU - 17th -> 19th
BracketMatrix is pretty good at predicting approximate seed, so by Selection Sunday we knew that as a likely 7-10 seed there was a reasonable chance of seeing West Virginia or possibly Creighton in the first round - and those were two teams we really wanted to avoid.
In the end, Arkansas wasn't much better - an 8 seed ranked 19th in KenPom (5 seed equivalent) going into the tourney.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
FWIW, here's a look at exactly this last year based on BracketMatrix close to Selection Sunday from that year's Bracketology Thread. Lots of teams 3+ seed lines off of their predictive rating.
Horrible loss, but they still have better wins. For us, a home loss to Maryland was a terrible loss. Most teams have their warts....we need more Q1 wins. That's our path.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
FWIW, here's a look at exactly this last year based on BracketMatrix close to Selection Sunday from that year's Bracketology Thread. Lots of teams 3+ seed lines off of their predictive rating.
So Illinois to get matched up with one of the more "under-seeded" KenPom teams...
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I know our teams had their own issues in those two years, but I remain incredibly jaded that we played an 8-seed Loyola team that was #10 in the NET Rankings in 2021 and a 5-seed Houston team that was #3 in the NET Rankings in 2022. It doesn't take a conspiracy theorist to simply admit that those were two very unlucky draws.
So Illinois to get matched up with one of the more "under-seeded" KenPom teams...
GrayGhost77
- Centennial, CO
Lol, I work in valuation and financial consulting for large health systems and private physician practices. So, there are Wednesdays when I get home to my wife and kid at 9:00 pm and Fridays where I more or less just chill and monitor my email and crack open my first weekend beer at 2:30 pm.
Yup. Though I think the team that lost to Houston would have lost to most teams with a pulse.
Yeah that team was running on fumes. At that point it was basically just Kofi. Just happy they beat Iowa.
Almost the entire rotation was dealing with decently significant injuries. Trent was hurt and also then couldn't see out of one eye in the tourney. Grandson could barely play. Just a brutal time for all of that to happen
skyIdub
Winged Warrior
Lol, I work in valuation and financial consulting for large health systems and private physician practices. So, there are Wednesdays when I get home to my wife and kid at 9:00 pm and Fridays where I more or less just chill and monitor my email and crack open my first weekend beer at 2:30 pm.
You forgot your other job.... Fighting this ghastly Fiend.Lol, I work in valuation and financial consulting for large health systems and private physician practices. So, there are Wednesdays when I get home to my wife and kid at 9:00 pm and Fridays where I more or less just chill and monitor my email and crack open my first weekend beer at 2:30 pm.
Also you may have to do currency conversion when dealing with this man.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
And STILL we were giving a top 10 Houston team a pretty great game in the second half until that bewildering RJ technical call.
Illwinsagain
- Cary, IL
Oh my, I had completely blocked that out of my mind. That was brutal!
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