Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Wisconsin play OSU and then Iowa?
Bracketology
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Wisconsin play OSU and then Iowa?
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Sorry, yes I used the original posters mention. Will update.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
My dark horse in B1G Tourney is Nebraska. I think they will get to semi Finals (beating MN, Maryland, and IU). They are playing pretty solid basketball right now. I can see them giving both Maryland and IU fits.
Not the worst take. New season starts Wednesday and some times need a fresh start. They also almost finished. 500 this year which is little surprising
Heck, I don't even care anymore!
IN bracket matrix the five teams above us are Maryland, Iowa, Northwestern and Michigan State, along with Missouri. The BTT is going to make a big difference for us in seeding. We make the BTT finals and we are almost certainly a 6, at least if the bracket matrix is relatively accurate.
OnlyOrange
- Belleville, IL
Oops - my mistake (I thought I knew this bracket by heart). Though I think the point stands that they'd have to win 2 (tOSU & Iowa) to be in. Winning the first game likely isn't going to be enough.
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The good news for PSU, Wisconsin, Michigan, Rutgers and other bubble teams is there haven't been any bid thieves yet (someone correct me if I'm wrong). The WCC was one of the conferences with a decent chance at stealing a bid, but St. Mary's and the Zags made sure that didn't happen. There are only 2 other mid major conferences with a chance at stealing a bid, the Mountain West and CUSA.
Mountain West - It will be really interesting to see what the committee does. SDSU is in for sure. Then you have Boise St as a 10 seed, and Utah St and Nevada as 11 seeds on the matrix. They all have good NET rankings, but each has 2 Q3/4 losses. Either way, bubble teams will be rooting for SDSU and hoping those other 3 get knocked out early.
CUSA - FAU is a projected at large (9 seed on bracket matrix). UAB and North Texas are the 2 to watch out for in this tourney.
Mountain West - It will be really interesting to see what the committee does. SDSU is in for sure. Then you have Boise St as a 10 seed, and Utah St and Nevada as 11 seeds on the matrix. They all have good NET rankings, but each has 2 Q3/4 losses. Either way, bubble teams will be rooting for SDSU and hoping those other 3 get knocked out early.
CUSA - FAU is a projected at large (9 seed on bracket matrix). UAB and North Texas are the 2 to watch out for in this tourney.
Then, of course, anything could happen in the major conference tournaments....
ACC - Most likely chance of a bid thief, just because there aren't any dominant teams in the conference. UNC or Va Tech have the best chance at a run IMO.
SEC - Maybe Vandy? They have been on fire to end the season.
B1G, B12, P12, BE - Don't see anything crazy happening, but you never know. I just think the teams at the top are too good and or there are too many good teams for a non tourney team to make a run.
ACC - Most likely chance of a bid thief, just because there aren't any dominant teams in the conference. UNC or Va Tech have the best chance at a run IMO.
SEC - Maybe Vandy? They have been on fire to end the season.
B1G, B12, P12, BE - Don't see anything crazy happening, but you never know. I just think the teams at the top are too good and or there are too many good teams for a non tourney team to make a run.
So if tOSU was in the tourney, would it count against their resume?
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
It would set a terrible precedent had the committee done otherwise. Really stinks for Rutgers, but they are not on the bubble because of that outcome. They only have themselves to blame for the way the season has unfolded, especially the collapse in Minneapolis.
mattcoldagelli
- The Transfer Portal with Do Not Contact Tag
True Illinoisness would require the Committee to recognize this issue, take it under advisement in '23 but not implement it until '24.
This is false.
I'm not sure that Illinois is unique in getting screwed to this extent (official apology from the Big Ten office), but 100% guaranteed that the beneficiary of this type of officiating is tOSU or Michigan. The Big doesn't even bother to hide their favoritism.
Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
IlliniKat91
- Chicago, IL
It's only because the office would never deign to apologize to Illinois
Everybody talking FF, EE, SS, I'm hoping for SR, Second Round...
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Waiting for some code to compile, so I'm looking at our potential tourney opponents. The usual caveat applies that KenPom is just one system, and KenPom efficiencies are non-linear (so going from #1 to #5 is a much bigger drop than from #21 to #25).
The table below shows every team in the Bracket Matrix along with:
- Their current projected seed line ("Seed Bin")
- Their average seed in the matrix ("Proj. Seed")
- Their KenPom ranking
- Their equivalent seed from KP ranking, rounded to the nearest seed line
- Their "mis-seeding" factor (difference between Bracket Matrix average and KP seed without rounding)
First Game
Starting with our most likely first round opponents, those currently falling in the 8/9 bin: West Virginia is the clear land-mine to avoid, while Auburn and Arkansas are the next-worst matchups, and even FAU and Memphis are a bit over-seeded as 9 seeds. We can't play Iowa or Maryland.
IMO we're just as likely to see any of the team currently in the 7/10 bins, and that's good news. Boise St. and USC are still under-seeded on the 9-10 line, but not by a lot. On the flip side, NC State is an over-seeded 10, as is Providence to a lesser degree. Duke is a slightly over-seeded 7, and since we can't play MSU, NW, or Miznoz in round 1, they're the only relevant one.
Less likely is that we'd face one of the teams currently in the 6 or 11 bin. But in that case, Pitt and Arizona State are the best possible match-ups: bubble teams that really shouldn't be. Wisconsin is too, but of course we can't play them. On the flip side, Utah State and Creighton look like tough draws.
Second Game
Our most likely opponents in the 2nd round are the 1 or 2 seeds. It's hard to be under-seeded at the top, so there aren't any really bad draws here. The committee most likely would avoid re-pairing us with Purdue, UCLA, or Texas, too. Houston is looking like a clear #1 per most computer rankings, so that's the one to avoid. It looks like Kansas would be the ideal matchup amongst the 1 seeds, while Baylor or Arizona would be preferred 2-seeds.
If we ended up in the 6/11 game, we'd want to avoid seeing Tennessee or UConn as a 3-seed, and would rather draw Marquette or K State.
TL;DR
To whatever extent you believe in a system like KenPom, here's a range of scenarios:
- Wildest dreams: 6/11 game vs. Pitt in a pod with K State
- Realistic, good draw: 7/10 game vs. NC State in a pod with Baylor
- Realistic, bad draw: 8/9 game vs. Arkansas in a pod with Alabama
- Nightmare: 8/9 game vs. West Virginia in a pod with Houston
The table below shows every team in the Bracket Matrix along with:
- Their current projected seed line ("Seed Bin")
- Their average seed in the matrix ("Proj. Seed")
- Their KenPom ranking
- Their equivalent seed from KP ranking, rounded to the nearest seed line
- Their "mis-seeding" factor (difference between Bracket Matrix average and KP seed without rounding)
First Game
Starting with our most likely first round opponents, those currently falling in the 8/9 bin: West Virginia is the clear land-mine to avoid, while Auburn and Arkansas are the next-worst matchups, and even FAU and Memphis are a bit over-seeded as 9 seeds. We can't play Iowa or Maryland.
IMO we're just as likely to see any of the team currently in the 7/10 bins, and that's good news. Boise St. and USC are still under-seeded on the 9-10 line, but not by a lot. On the flip side, NC State is an over-seeded 10, as is Providence to a lesser degree. Duke is a slightly over-seeded 7, and since we can't play MSU, NW, or Miznoz in round 1, they're the only relevant one.
Less likely is that we'd face one of the teams currently in the 6 or 11 bin. But in that case, Pitt and Arizona State are the best possible match-ups: bubble teams that really shouldn't be. Wisconsin is too, but of course we can't play them. On the flip side, Utah State and Creighton look like tough draws.
Second Game
Our most likely opponents in the 2nd round are the 1 or 2 seeds. It's hard to be under-seeded at the top, so there aren't any really bad draws here. The committee most likely would avoid re-pairing us with Purdue, UCLA, or Texas, too. Houston is looking like a clear #1 per most computer rankings, so that's the one to avoid. It looks like Kansas would be the ideal matchup amongst the 1 seeds, while Baylor or Arizona would be preferred 2-seeds.
If we ended up in the 6/11 game, we'd want to avoid seeing Tennessee or UConn as a 3-seed, and would rather draw Marquette or K State.
TL;DR
To whatever extent you believe in a system like KenPom, here's a range of scenarios:
- Wildest dreams: 6/11 game vs. Pitt in a pod with K State
- Realistic, good draw: 7/10 game vs. NC State in a pod with Baylor
- Realistic, bad draw: 8/9 game vs. Arkansas in a pod with Alabama
- Nightmare: 8/9 game vs. West Virginia in a pod with Houston
Great analysis. bad draws = 8 seed --> really need to win 1-2 BTT games and get 7-6 seed with 1-2 teams in front losing early
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Yep. It's not totally cut-and-dried - that cluster of teams that looks under-seeded in the 8/9 game could easily end up mostly as 7s and 10s - but when you combine it with the difference in quality between a 1 seed and a 2 seed, I also really really want to avoid the 8/9 this year.
Edit: another thought, given that the B1G logjam also projects as a tourney seeding logjam, is that a win over Northwestern combined with a run by OSU or Bucky (through Iowa and Michigan State) could do a lot to loosen up one of those 7 lines for us. Might as well toss in a Nebraska win over the Terps to boot, if we're dreaming big.
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
Mizzou is still in play............
There are so many same-conference match-ups to avoid, that playing someone on your regular season schedule (again) is by no means out of the question. I believe the Committee will be cognizant of the fact we've played earlier this season, but that fact won't prevent us from going head-to-head with Mizzou in round 1 of the tourney.
BTW, I sure hope our BTT performance lifts us up to at least a #7 seed.
Thanks for the analysis, this is amazing!
West Virginia then Houston would be an absolute gauntlet. Maybe not in terms of pure talent, but with how hard and physical both those teams play.
This time of year, when looking at potential matchups, I also like to use torvik's rankings and filter for just the end of the season. Like the last 8 to 10 games. It's good to see who is hot and who is struggling.
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