Bracketology

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#101      

jrichisamazing

J
jrichisamazing
Still think a 6 seed is possible. Here is how it happens....

-Beat PSU and NW (Q2 and Q1 win)
-Beat Maryland or Indiana (doesn't matter who, both Q1)
-Wisconsin, currently at 78, wins enough to get into top 75. (would add a Q1 win, while keeping the Q2 win)
-MSU, currently 31, gets into top 30 (adds another Q1 win)

So we should be big Wisconsin fans, at least for their first 2 games. Not only could they improve our resume, but they could knockout the Hawkeyes (also an 8 seed) which would help with tournament seeding.
 
#102      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
DeonThomas said:
Mizzou is still in play............

There are so many same-conference match-ups to avoid, that playing someone on your regular season schedule (again) is by no means out of the question. I believe the Committee will be cognizant of the fact we've played earlier this season, but that fact won't prevent us from going head-to-head with Mizzou in round 1 of the tourney.

BTW, I sure hope our BTT performance lifts us up to at least a #7 seed.
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True, the committee would only avoid that rematch "if possible", so while less likely it could certainly still happen. I bet our guys would love a chance at a re-do of Braggin' Rights.
 
#104      

aaeismacgychel

A
aaeismacgychel
BBlock24 said:
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-b...es-shape-ncaa-tournament-bubble-according-bpi

This ESPN BPI thing says if Illinois loses against PSU they are on the bubble unless I am reading it wrong. I don’t think that’s true whatsoever.
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Not only on the bubble but more likely than not to miss the tourney. That's some loss to a Q2 at absolute worst, possibly Q1 opponent to drop you from an 8seed to out of the tourney... Personally I don't think we could fall any lower than an 11 at absolute absolute worst unless the committee somehow overvalues our 6 games against Q4 sub300 opponents that demolishes our non-con SOS and undervalues teams losing Q3 and Q4 games. Seems like craziness by ESPN to me, but who knows.
 
#105      

FreshlySqueezed

FreshlySqueezed
FreshlySqueezed
#106      

BBlock24

B
BBlock24
aaeismacgychel said:
Not only on the bubble but more likely than not to miss the tourney. That's some loss to a Q2 at absolute worst, possibly Q1 opponent to drop you from an 8seed to out of the tourney... Personally I don't think we could fall any lower than an 11 at absolute absolute worst unless the committee somehow overvalues our 6 games against Q4 sub300 opponents that demolishes our non-con SOS and undervalues teams losing Q3 and Q4 games. Seems like craziness by ESPN to me, but who knows.
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Yeah it’s very strange. With a loss I don’t think they fall all the way to 11. I’d hope for a 10 but they’d most likely be a 9 unfortunately.
 
#107      

theNewGuy

theNewGuy
Dallas, TX
theNewGuy
Honestly, I'd rather play West Virginia than Arkansas. Arkansas is a talented team that just couldn't put it all together.
They were ranked as #10 in the week 1 AP poll. I know that doesn't mean much but it does mean they were looked at to have a lot of talent. Kinda like our team. Tons of talent but couldn't put it together consistently. I'd rather play a team I know is tough but are so consistent that you know what's coming and can plan for it.
UNC last year was a top 20 team week 1 but was out of the poll in week 2. Ended up with an 8 seed and they put together a fabulous March.
There are so many teams this year that underperformed.
Us, Kentucky, Duke, Arkansas, UNC (by far the biggest disappointment)
If anyone of these teams can get some momentum, watch out.
 
#108      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
theNewGuy said:
Honestly, I'd rather play West Virginia than Arkansas. Arkansas is a talented team that just couldn't put it all together.
They were ranked as #10 in the week 1 AP poll. I know that doesn't mean much but it does mean they were looked at to have a lot of talent. Kinda like our team. Tons of talent but couldn't put it together consistently. I'd rather play a team I know is tough but are so consistent that you know what's coming and can plan for it.
UNC last year was a top 20 team week 1 but was out of the poll in week 2. Ended up with an 8 seed and they put together a fabulous March.
There are so many teams this year that underperformed.
Us, Kentucky, Duke, Arkansas, UNC (by far the biggest disappointment)
If anyone of these teams can get some momentum, watch out.
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I remember an article a while back (probably Ken Pomeroy, but I'm not 100% sure) that showed the preseason AP poll was a better predictor of tournament success than the final poll before the tournament - so I think it definitely means something!
 
#110      

pruman91

pruman91
Paducah, Ky
pruman91
LvilleILL said:
We are a lock for the tourney. We could lose by 30 against Penn State and still get in lol
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Thanks bro for responding to the nonsense of the Illini missing the dance........I had to med up after reading those responses aboot us missing out and didn't have the energy to post myself.......

853full-christopher-walken.jpg


Ole pru with the effects after taking my meds.........shaken , not stirred...................

dc09.gif
 
#113      

Ramrod2010

R
Ramrod2010
LvilleILL said:
A loss would move us to a 9 most likely. With that being said, I think we at least get to the semis this week and get a 7
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As someone who was quietly banging the "God help us if we only win one more game" drum prior to Northwestern I would think a 9 seed is probable if we lose to PSU, with a chance - fairly unlikely as it is - at sliding to 10.

It would take a minor miracle for this team to miss the tournament at this point.
 
#114      

Second place is 1st loser

S
Second place is 1st loser
Ramrod2010 said:
As someone who was quietly banging the "God help us if we only win one more game" drum prior to Northwestern I would think a 9 seed is probable if we lose to PSU, with a chance - fairly unlikely as it is - at sliding to 10.

It would take a minor miracle for this team to miss the tournament at this point.
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Probably. The fact that the minor miracle scenario is even present really is our own fault. Here's to hoping that we don't have to hold our breaths.
 
#115      

OnlyOrange

O
Belleville, IL
OnlyOrange
Ramrod2010 said:
As someone who was quietly banging the "God help us if we only win one more game" drum prior to Northwestern I would think a 9 seed is probable if we lose to PSU, with a chance - fairly unlikely as it is - at sliding to 10.

It would take a minor miracle for this team to miss the tournament at this point.
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Not that I want to test this theory by losing again to PSU, but we're a lock. Not even in the "last four byes" section of Lunardi. And some of those 8 teams behind us will lose/shift out before us. We're safely in.
 
#116      

DeonThomas

DeonThomas
South Carolina
DeonThomas
aaeismacgychel said:
Not only on the bubble but more likely than not to miss the tourney. That's some loss to a Q2 at absolute worst, possibly Q1 opponent to drop you from an 8seed to out of the tourney... Personally I don't think we could fall any lower than an 11 at absolute absolute worst unless the committee somehow overvalues our 6 games against Q4 sub300 opponents that demolishes our non-con SOS and undervalues teams losing Q3 and Q4 games. Seems like craziness by ESPN to me, but who knows.
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Lunardi.......

I feel safe in theorizing that never in the history of ESPN's bracketology (birthed in 1996), has the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee given us a seed worse than Lunardi's projection. In other words, we always end up faring better, with the absolute worst case being exactly what he projects.
 
#117      

Illini2010-11

I
Sugar Grove
Illini2010-11
Ramrod2010 said:
As someone who was quietly banging the "God help us if we only win one more game" drum prior to Northwestern I would think a 9 seed is probable if we lose to PSU, with a chance - fairly unlikely as it is - at sliding to 10.

It would take a minor miracle for this team to miss the tournament at this point.
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I think there are better odds of winning the Powerball than us missing the tournament. That is how unlikely it would be for Illini to miss tournament at this point.
 
#118      

Calvin

C
Calvin
BBlock24 said:
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-b...es-shape-ncaa-tournament-bubble-according-bpi

This ESPN BPI thing says if Illinois loses against PSU they are on the bubble unless I am reading it wrong. I don’t think that’s true whatsoever.
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ESPN has been promoting their BPI for as long as it's been around, and it's inferior to pretty much every other metric, including team shoe size. I think the ESPN analysts are required to quote it when they write, and they dutifully do what the mothership tells them to.
 
#119      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
I took a look back at past years of the bracket matrix to see what one might consider a "lock". Obviously this is with respect to the final matrix on Selection Sunday, not the Wednesday before... but still informative if you assume we won't move too much.

In the 8 tournaments from 2014-2022, 11 teams have been left out despite the Bracket Matrix composite having them "in". They are listed in the table below, along with:
- The percentage of brackets from the matrix that had them in that year's tournament
- The team's "position" on the bubble (1 + the number of teams "in" per the matrix but included in fewer individual brackets)

YearTeam% of "in" brackets in matrixMatrix position on bubble
2022Texas A&M95%4 (tie)
2021Louisville92%4
2019TCU93%5
2018USC93%2
2018St. Mary's47%1
2016St. Bonaventure86%5
2016St. Mary's65%3
2016San Diego St.58%2
2015Colorado St.91%5
2015Temple90%4
2014SMU79%1

A team in 100% of the matrix brackets has never been left out, nor has any team more than 5 spots above the "cut line".

We are currently in 100% of the brackets and 15 spots above the cut line - so if we hold this position, I would certainly consider us a lock.

A loss to PSU plus other movement on the bubble would have to drop us about 10 spots, which seems unlikely but not impossible. So at present I would have to call us something different... maybe a "virtual lock"?
 
#120      

grue2

G
grue2
bracket.jpg

My predictions:
A loss to PSU -> 10 seed (From mid 8 seed to top 10 seed)
2 BTT wins -> 8/9 seed
3 BTT wins -> 7 seed
Win BTT -> 6 seed

The significant drop in Q1 wins as other teams fell in the rankings is really showing.
View attachment 23948
 

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#121      

Saturdaze

S
Saturdaze
No way Providence, Pittsburgh, and NC State are ahead of Penn State and West Virginia. Just look at the nitty gritty in the screenshot. West Virginia may be a higher seed than Illinois depending on how much the UCLA and Texas wins are worth versus the better overall resume from West Virginia.
 
#124      

One Man Fast Break

O
One Man Fast Break
You'd really like a win... a loss could easily drop Illinois to a 10, which starts to get a bit too close for comfort if things get weird in the other Conference Tournaments. I think our stellar run of Quad 2-A home wins (Michigan State, Northwestern, Rutgers, Michigan) should keep Illinois on the right side of things, as well as avoiding any bad losses (Neutral vs. Penn State would actually be out 2nd worse loss of the season, only to Home vs. Penn State). We've only lost once to a non-tournament team, which was @ Ohio State (still a Quad 1 loss). But out overall lack of big wins outside of the two major ones carrying our resume, gives enough room to put Illinois in "the committee COULD PLAUSIBLY screw them over" territory if things get crazy.

I wish our "cupcake" opponents did a bit better in their season. If you compare our resume to Maryland, it doesn't feel all that different in terms of scheduling, but their OOC SOS is quit a bit higher than ours because their opponents were generally more competitive in their conferences (the downside is you could get a team like Ohio from two seasons ago that very nearly beats you).
 
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#125      

Godard

Godard
Godard
grue2 said:
View attachment 23949
My predictions:
A loss to PSU -> 10 seed (From mid 8 seed to top 10 seed)
2 BTT wins -> 8/9 seed
3 BTT wins -> 7 seed
Win BTT -> 6 seed

The significant drop in Q1 wins as other teams fell in the rankings is really showing.
View attachment 23948
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This is solid analysis, but I'm +1 on all your seedings due to optimism. Think we are an 8 now, 9 if we lose (I have a touch of cynicism and see us headed to a date with Houston/UCLA if the latter grabs the last 1 seed, which happens only if Purdue is one-and-done).

Hey...can you share some optimism? We should be safely in the tournament. A loss to Penn State would be tough...but it gives them a better shot at getting in.
 
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