Bracketology

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#26      

Illini2010-11

I
Sugar Grove
Illini2010-11
I am actually fine with a seed of 8/9. If Purdue earns a 1 seed, then we would most likely be in Houston or Kansas region (committee would likely try to avoid UCLA rematch and based upon rules, we would not be in Purdue's region...believe you can't face a conference foe until 2nd weekend).

Houston is a match up I would not like to see, but I think it is probably the storyline match up the committee would draw up. Kansas is not a world beater and I feel we can match up well. We have also already beat UCLA, so I am fine with that matchup.

In any event, you have to beat the best at some point, and there is no run away team this year. So the 8/9 line is not too much worse than the 7/10 line of normal years, IMO.
 
#29      

Second place is 1st loser

S
Second place is 1st loser
aaeismacgychel said:
If we were to win the BTT, I'm guessing we'll be a 7, maybe a 6 (though based on empirical evidence the committee will ignore games from the semis on and wins over PSU and NW might still keep us as an 8/9). If we lose to PSU I think we're a 10, maybe 11. Most likely we will be in the 8-10 range.
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If we fell to an 11, at no point were we actually "safe". An 11 seed is generally one of the last few at large teams selected.
 
#30      

jrichisamazing

J
jrichisamazing
Cubsfan93 said:
Assuming we are a 8-9 seed, which 1 seed is the best match up for us?? Kansas, Houston, or Alabama? (Assuming Purdue is 4th 1 seed)
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100% give me Kansas or Houston.

We play better against teams that rely on their D and play in the low 60s (Rutgers, MSU, NW). We have struggled against teams like Bama that play fast and/or have a great offense that gets the score into the 80s (Miz, PSU, Iowa, tOSU etc).

The reason for this is simple. We take too many tough shots and aren't efficient enough to take advantage of a team with a soft defense. So OTOH, we are pretty good at making tough shots and against good defensive teams that is what you need. We usually find a way to win squeeze out enough points to win 63-61 for example.
 
#31      

jrichisamazing

J
jrichisamazing
Kansas - CHawk is a pretty good matchup for Jalen Wilson. And this would be a perfect time for Coleman to show the NBA how valuable he is defensively. Then, RJ can make it tough for Gradey to get going. I like our chances at making this one an ugly slugfest. If we played Kansas, I would be very surprised if they ran away with it. And that's all you really ask for in a 8/9 vs 1 game.

Houston - Our extra length, athleticism, and shot blocking make us a much tougher matchup compared to last year. Plus, Houston is more or less the same team. I think BU will have a better game plan ready for them this year.
 
#32      

illinitiger

I
illinitiger
jrichisamazing said:
Kansas - CHawk is a pretty good matchup for Jalen Wilson. And this would be a perfect time for Coleman to show the NBA how valuable he is defensively. Then, RJ can make it tough for Gradey to get going. I like our chances at making this one an ugly slugfest. If we played Kansas, I would be very surprised if they ran away with it. And that's all you really ask for in a 8/9 vs 1 game.

Houston - Our extra length, athleticism, and shot blocking make us a much tougher matchup compared to last year. Plus, Houston is more or less the same team. I think BU will have a better game plan ready for them this year.
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Didnt we outplay Kansas in "secret scrimmage"?
 
#33      

DB11Headband

D
Chicago Burbs
DB11Headband
theNewGuy said:
Missouri is also a projected 8 right now. Wouldn't they make the most sense to put with Kansas or is there a rule (or rule of thumb) that guides region placement of teams that have played each other?
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The committee avoids the possibility of regular season rematches occurring in the round of 64/32.
 
#35      

DB11Headband

D
Chicago Burbs
DB11Headband
turnaround3 said:
Elaborate?
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We all know the committee loves storylines. Assuming the 4 1s are Bama, Kansas, Houston, and UCLA/Purdue:

-UCLA/Purdue would not be an option as the committee avoids possible first weekend rematches from the regular season.
-I don’t think they’d pair us with Houston two years in a row.
-Kansas over Bama due to my initial point.
 
#36      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
DB11Headband said:
We all know the committee loves storylines. Assuming the 4 1s are Bama, Kansas, Houston, and UCLA/Purdue:

-UCLA/Purdue would not be an option as the committee avoids possible first weekend rematches from the regular season.
-I don’t think they’d pair us with Houston two years in a row.
-Kansas over Bama due to my initial point.
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This would be great from a location standpoint since it probably means Des Moines instead of Birmingham.
 
#37      

skyIdub

skyIdub
Winged Warrior
skyIdub
2qtslow said:
Alabama would guarantee everyone cheered for us.
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Everyone?

bounce-fail-hold-my-beer.gif

BountifulScaryFattaileddunnart-size_restricted.gif

Jqk5.gif


Actually there's a reasonable chance that last guy is in southern IL.
 
#42      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
theNewGuy said:
Fill in the Blank:

If Illinois wins the B1G Tournament, they will be a _______ seed.
Assuming the beat PSU, NW, Indiana, and Purdue.
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I'm guessing a 7-seed ONLY because it's relatively common knowledge that the Committee does not have time to make too many decisions based on the BTT Championship result. In other words, they will have Purdue and Illinois penciled in somewhere before that game is over, and if it were Nebraska for example, they would have a spot for the "last Bubble team" OR Nebraska and just swap them out depending on the result. So, the wins of ours that the Committee would consider would be:

W vs. #56 Penn State (Quad 2 win)
W vs. #38 Northwestern (Quad 1 win)
W vs. #29 Indiana (Quad 1 win)

So, our resume would look like this before the game against Purdue on Sunday, assuming shifts in the rankings don't adjust our Quad records, as well:

Record: 23-11
NET Ranking: #33 now ... probably #25 or so
SOS Ranking: x#27 now ... probably #22 or so
Road Record: 3-7
Neutral Record: 5-2
vs. Quad 1: 4-10
vs. Quad 2: 8-1
vs. Quad 3: 4-0
vs. Quad 4: 7-0

That is a resume that will stack up quite well against our main competition for the seed line. If we can catch a few breaks and have #31 Michigan State sneak into the top 30 or #78 Wisconsin sneak into the top 75, we'd all of a sudden be 6-10 in Quad 1 games and honestly have a damn fine resume. Relevant to those last points, root for MSU and Wiscy in these:

Wednesday
Wisconsin over Ohio State

Thursday
Wisconsin over Iowa (if WISC beats OSU)

Friday
Michigan State over Wisconsin in a preferably very close game!

Saturday
Michigan State over Purdue (if MSU beats WISC)

Your scenario of us getting hot and making it to Sunday, obtaining two more Quad 1 wins on our own, plus my scenario of Wisconsin and MSU winning just enough to squeak up into Quad 1 wins, would truly be our dream scenario.
 
#43      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
SkyysNotFalling said:
Our path to a 7 seed

Beat Penn State
Beat Northwestern

Root for MSU, Rutgers, Wisconsin in BTT

Go into Selection Sunday with 5/6 Quad 1 wins.
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To the extent you can even KIND of make predictions for this team, I think we are set up best to be a #7 seed. We seem to play our best vs. "good teams" that we can get hyped up for, but the path of a #7 seed getting to avoid a #1 seed in the Second Round could make the difference between us being a 2-point loss from a Sweet Sixteen and a 2-point win that gets us there!
 
#44      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
Iloveorangekoolaid said:
View attachment 23903
View attachment 23904
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Good lord that's a lot to keep track of.

Some things are clear:
- Conference teams you've played 3x (like Penn State) - can't meet until the E8
- Conference teams you've played 2x (like Wisconsin) - can't meet until the S16
- Conference teams you've played 1x (like Purdue) - can't meet until the 2nd round

And I take it as implied that these things can cause a team to be bumped up or down from their "true" seed.

Some things are less clear:
- Top-4 seeds won't get a "home-crowd disadvantage" in the first round. First, does this mean only something really egregious, like playing UNC in Greensboro,? Or something less serious, like playing Illinois in Des Moines? Second, does it really only apply to the first round - so a 3 seed might have to face an 11th-seeded UNC in Greensboro because the 6 seed wasn't "protected"?
- Avoiding non-conference rematches - does the caveat about not moving teams up or down a seed line apply to only 2nd-round rematches, or 1st round as well?
- Does the 2021 tournament (when all games were played in Indy) have any bearing on avoiding whether teams are moved out of their natural region an "inordinate" number of times?
 
#45      

jjv0004

J
Greenville, SC
jjv0004
Cubsfan93 said:
Assuming we are a 8-9 seed, which 1 seed is the best match up for us?? Kansas, Houston, or Alabama? (Assuming Purdue is 4th 1 seed)
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That assumes we beat the 8 or 9 seed. Very large assumption at this point. Personally, I am hoping for a 11 or 12 seed. I realize does not seem logical but hear me out. As a 8 or 9, you have to beat the 8 or 9 and then immediately get the #1 seed. As an 11 you have to beat a 6 and then most likely a 3. As a 12 you have to beat a 5 and then a 4 most likely. I like our chances beating a 3 and 4 seed way better than a 1 seed.
 
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#46      

Illini1985

I
Illini1985
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I'm guessing a 7-seed ONLY because it's relatively common knowledge that the Committee does not have time to make too many decisions based on the BTT Championship result. In other words, they will have Purdue and Illinois penciled in somewhere before that game is over, and if it were Nebraska for example, they would have a spot for the "last Bubble team" OR Nebraska and just swap them out depending on the result. So, the wins of ours that the Committee would consider would be:

W vs. #56 Penn State (Quad 2 win)
W vs. #38 Northwestern (Quad 1 win)
W vs. #29 Indiana (Quad 1 win)

So, our resume would look like this before the game against Purdue on Sunday, assuming shifts in the rankings don't adjust our Quad records, as well:

Record: 23-11
NET Ranking: #33 now ... probably #25 or so
SOS Ranking: x#27 now ... probably #22 or so
Road Record: 3-7
Neutral Record: 5-2
vs. Quad 1: 4-10
vs. Quad 2: 8-1
vs. Quad 3: 4-0
vs. Quad 4: 7-0

That is a resume that will stack up quite well against our main competition for the seed line. If we can catch a few breaks and have #31 Michigan State sneak into the top 30 or #78 Wisconsin sneak into the top 75, we'd all of a sudden be 6-10 in Quad 1 games and honestly have a damn fine resume. Relevant to those last points, root for MSU and Wiscy in these:

Wednesday
Wisconsin over Ohio State

Thursday
Wisconsin over Iowa (if WISC beats OSU)

Friday
Michigan State over Wisconsin in a preferably very close game!

Saturday
Michigan State over Purdue (if MSU beats WISC)

Your scenario of us getting hot and making it to Sunday, obtaining two more Quad 1 wins on our own, plus my scenario of Wisconsin and MSU winning just enough to squeak up into Quad 1 wins, would truly be our dream scenario.
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It's crazy to think of the opportunity this team has in front of them. A 2-10 Q1 record is good enough for them to be a 8/9 seed. Imagine our seeding potential coming out of this week with a 7-10 Q1 record*.

*UW goes 2-1 and becomes a Q1 win (beats OSU, Iowa then lose to MSU)

*MSU wins at least 1 maybe 2 and becomes a Q1 win

*Illinois picks up a Q2 win (PSU) and potentially 2-3 Q1 wins (NW, IU and BTT final)

I'm skeptical because they've thrown away many other great opportunities, but hey one can hope right?
 
#47      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
jjv0004 said:
That assumes we beat the 8 or 9 seed. Very large assumption at this point. Personally, I am hoping for a 11 or 12 seed. I realize does not seem logical but hear me out. As a 8 or 9, you have to beat the 8 or 9 and then immediately get the #1 seed. As an 11 you have to beat a 6 and then most likely a 3. As a 12 you have to beat a 5 and then a 4 most likely. I like our chances beating a 3 and 4 seed way better than a 1 seed.
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There is a 0% chance we'll be a 12 seed this year. Those will all be AQs from single-bid leagues, or there's an outside chance that a First Four pairing might end up on the 12 line if Oral Roberts looks good enough to slide up to an 11.
 
#49      

ugottabjoshinme

ugottabjoshinme
ugottabjoshinme
jjv0004 said:
That assumes we beat the 8 or 9 seed. Very large assumption at this point. Personally, I am hoping for a 11 or 12 seed. I realize does not seem logical but hear me out. As a 8 or 9, you have to beat the 8 or 9 and then immediately get the #1 seed. As an 11 you have to beat a 6 and then most likely a 3. As a 12 you have to beat a 5 and then a 4 most likely. I like our chances beating a 3 and 4 seed way better than a 1 seed.
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This isn't even possible. Last 4 in are basically 11 seeds (play in game) and 12 seeds are the highest qualifying automatic bids. You could flip and 11 and 12 if an at large team is really good.
 
#50      

Iloveorangekoolaid

Iloveorangekoolaid
Iloveorangekoolaid
danielb927 said:
Good lord that's a lot to keep track of.

Some things are clear:
- Conference teams you've played 3x (like Penn State) - can't meet until the E8
- Conference teams you've played 2x (like Wisconsin) - can't meet until the S16
- Conference teams you've played 1x (like Purdue) - can't meet until the 2nd round

And I take it as implied that these things can cause a team to be bumped up or down from their "true" seed.

Some things are less clear:
- Top-4 seeds won't get a "home-crowd disadvantage" in the first round. First, does this mean only something really egregious, like playing UNC in Greensboro,? Or something less serious, like playing Illinois in Des Moines? Second, does it really only apply to the first round - so a 3 seed might have to face an 11th-seeded UNC in Greensboro because the 6 seed wasn't "protected"?
- Avoiding non-conference rematches - does the caveat about not moving teams up or down a seed line apply to only 2nd-round rematches, or 1st round as well?
- Does the 2021 tournament (when all games were played in Indy) have any bearing on avoiding whether teams are moved out of their natural region an "inordinate" number of times?
Click to expand...
The top 4 seed only applies to round 1. They would want to avoid having a 4 seed Indiana playing 13 seed Charleston in Greensboro or something like that or Gonzaga playing in Orlando against Florida Atlantic(yes I know that seeding doesn’t line up but you get the point. But a 4 seed Gonzaga could play in Orlando and face a 5 seed Miami in round 2 without breaking the rules.
Moving seed lines is only to avoid rematches in round 1, but they try to avoid them in round 2.
I think 2021 is an outlier because everyone was in Indy.
 
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