Bracketology

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#51      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
Iloveorangekoolaid said:
The top 4 seed only applies to round 1. They would want to avoid having a 4 seed Indiana playing 13 seed Charleston in Greensboro or something like that or Gonzaga playing in Orlando against Florida Atlantic(yes I know that seeding doesn’t line up but you get the point. But a 4 seed Gonzaga could play in Orlando and face a 5 seed Miami in round 2 without breaking the rules.
Moving seed lines is only to avoid rematches in round 1, but they try to avoid them in round 2.
I think 2021 is an outlier because everyone was in Indy.
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Makes sense, but I think limiting the protection to 1st round only is a little weird. The top 4 lines can only face 13-16 seeds in round 1, and those are always teams from small, single-bid leagues. So you're "protecting" a team from facing UCF in Orlando (where nobody really cares about UCF hoops), but you can still have an 11 seeded UNC with a ravenous home fanbase in Greensboro against a 6 and then a 3? Just seems like minimal "protection", IMO. I'm not sure what the alternative would be. Maybe protect all favorites (1-8 seeds) in the first round, at least?
 
#52      

Fulton County Illini

Fulton County Illini
Fulton County Illini
skyIdub said:
Everyone?

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Actually there's a reasonable chance that last guy is in southern IL.
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Pretty sure I have seen all 3 in Central Illinois
 
#53      

2qtslow

2qtslow
2qtslow
If we are an 8 or a 9, can we be paired with Purdue in the round of 32? Is this true even if we play them again in the BTT final?
 
#59      

Illini2010-11

I
Sugar Grove
Illini2010-11
2qtslow said:
If we are an 8 or a 9, can we be paired with Purdue in the round of 32? Is this true even if we play them again in the BTT final?
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We will not be paired with Purdue. Won't meet with any B1G team until 2nd weekend at earliest. A poster earlier shared the exact breakdown of when a team can meet up with another conference foe (based on number of times played during season).

Edit: 727ill explained this correctly. Did not see before posting.
 
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#60      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
Illini2010-11 said:
We will not be paired with Purdue. Won't meet with any B1G team until 2nd weekend at earliest. A poster earlier shared the exact breakdown of when a team can meet up with another conference foe (based on number of times played during season).

Edit: 727ill explained this correctly. Did not see before posting.
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Even if we don't see Purdue a 2nd time and we'd technically be allowed to see them in the round of 32, it would still surprise me. I don't recall ever having seen a pair of conference teams lined up to meet before the sweet sixteen.
 
#61      

Illini2010-11

I
Sugar Grove
Illini2010-11
danielb927 said:
Even if we don't see Purdue a 2nd time and we'd technically be allowed to see them in the round of 32, it would still surprise me. I don't recall ever having seen a pair of conference teams lined up to meet before the sweet sixteen.
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Completely agree. The committee will almost certainly avoid this, even if they are technically allowed to meet in rd of 32. I can never recall conference opponents meeting in tourney until S16.
 
#62      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
danielb927 said:
Good lord that's a lot to keep track of.

Some things are clear:
- Conference teams you've played 3x (like Penn State) - can't meet until the E8
- Conference teams you've played 2x (like Wisconsin) - can't meet until the S16
- Conference teams you've played 1x (like Purdue) - can't meet until the 2nd round

And I take it as implied that these things can cause a team to be bumped up or down from their "true" seed.

Some things are less clear:
- Top-4 seeds won't get a "home-crowd disadvantage" in the first round. First, does this mean only something really egregious, like playing UNC in Greensboro,? Or something less serious, like playing Illinois in Des Moines? Second, does it really only apply to the first round - so a 3 seed might have to face an 11th-seeded UNC in Greensboro because the 6 seed wasn't "protected"?
- Avoiding non-conference rematches - does the caveat about not moving teams up or down a seed line apply to only 2nd-round rematches, or 1st round as well?
- Does the 2021 tournament (when all games were played in Indy) have any bearing on avoiding whether teams are moved out of their natural region an "inordinate" number of times?
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I guess I always thought the "protected seeds" (i.e., top 4) were supposed to not play an effective road game the whole First Weekend. I saw multiple brackets this year that had #1 seed Kansas playing in Des Moines with Iowa as the #8 seed ... that would straight-up suck for KU, the way Iowa can get hot from three with a crowd behind them.
 
#63      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
eas23 said:
Bill Self left 20 years ago and nobody outside of our fanbase cares that he used to coach here.
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I think you might confuse the average person or even fan with sports media in general. I swear the announcers have called every game we've played in this year a "rivalry" at some point, haha. They'll dig up any storyline they can, and I COMPLETELY disagree with you that if we were to be playing Kansas, they wouldn't be talking about this an obnoxious number of times on the broadcast to drum up a storyline. They definitely did when we met in 2011.
 
#65      

WizardBill

WizardBill
WizardBill
Is there anyone like me who thinks the "play-in game" idea is just stupid? If it is a "barely got in, make it the lowest seeds. punishing a five seed is just dumb.
If you want more teams in, grant more teams, but only punish the lowest seeds. I think a 64-team tournament IS the sweet spot.
 
#66      

TEYPAY

T
Springfield
TEYPAY
I think the NCAA will adjust seeds by 1 or so (up 1 or down 1) to try to minimize repeat / conference matchups.
 
#67      

WizardBill

WizardBill
WizardBill
jjv0004 said:
That assumes we beat the 8 or 9 seed. Very large assumption at this point. Personally, I am hoping for a 11 or 12 seed. I realize does not seem logical but hear me out. As a 8 or 9, you have to beat the 8 or 9 and then immediately get the #1 seed. As an 11 you have to beat a 6 and then most likely a 3. As a 12 you have to beat a 5 and then a 4 most likely. I like our chances beating a 3 and 4 seed way better than a 1 seed.
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Didn't we just lose to a one-seed by one possession on the road when a flagrant beat down of our best 3 pt. shooter was ignored by the home-cooking?
 
#70      

Ransom Stoddard

Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
Bloomington, IL
Ransom Stoddard
urbanite said:
It happened in 2019. 2-seed Michigan St. played 10-seed Minnesota in the round of 32. I recall there being some reason it couldn't be avoided, but I don't remember what it was.
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Wasn't that the year there were 9 B1G teams in the dance?
 
#71      

bergd91

B
bergd91
Cubsfan93 said:
Assuming we are a 8-9 seed, which 1 seed is the best match up for us?? Kansas, Houston, or Alabama? (Assuming Purdue is 4th 1 seed)
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Team with the weaknesses back court. That's what wins in March, Houston is stacked and Kansas is top notch.
 
#72      

OnlyOrange

O
Belleville, IL
OnlyOrange
Rutgers playing with fire - Lunardi now has them as the second to last team in per his most recent tweet. Assume if they lose to Michigan, they're likely out.

Michigan is now the first team in "next four out". I think their path is simple. Beat Rutgers, then beat Purdue and they're in. Lose and they're out. That becomes a de facto play in game for them (will be rooting for Purdue in that one)

Wisconsin now the second team out - beat MN & Maryland and they're in IMO

Penn State is now in the last 4 byes. They're likely in barring a few bid thieves or teams like Michigan hopping them.

Lot of Big Ten bunched in those last few slots
 
#73      

grue2

G
grue2
urbanite said:
It happened in 2019. 2-seed Michigan St. played 10-seed Minnesota in the round of 32. I recall there being some reason it couldn't be avoided, but I don't remember what it was.
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I never understood why they didn't swap MN and Seton Hall.
 
#74      

Illini2010-11

I
Sugar Grove
Illini2010-11
OnlyOrange said:
Rutgers playing with fire - Lunardi now has them as the second to last team in per his most recent tweet. Assume if they lose to Michigan, they're likely out.

Michigan is now the first team in "next four out". I think their path is simple. Beat Rutgers, then beat Purdue and they're in. Lose and they're out. That becomes a de facto play in game for them (will be rooting for Purdue in that one)

Wisconsin now the second team out - beat MN & Maryland and they're in IMO

Penn State is now in the last 4 byes. They're likely in barring a few bid thieves or teams like Michigan hopping them.

Lot of Big Ten bunched in those last few slots
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I agree. Rutgers is likely win vs Mich and in. A loss would likely send them to wrong side of bubble. With only 1 win, they will still be sweating out Selection Sunday if there are a number of bid thieves/other bubble teams making deep conference tourney runs.

2 wins for Mich likely gets them in last 4 in, barring bid thieves, etc. A trip to B1G Finals, and they are likely in no matter what. For some reason, I feel we are going to see UNC vs Mich in last 4 play in game.

Wisconsin needs two wins. OSU will not move needle enough for them. I think beating Iowa will get them in, but they will likewise be sweating. 3 wins and they are completely safe, imo.

Penn State needs 1 win to feel safe. A loss and they will be sweating on Selection Sunday. So...let's make them sweat it out!
 
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#75      

Iloveorangekoolaid

Iloveorangekoolaid
Iloveorangekoolaid
Illini2010-11 said:
I agree. Rutgers is likely win vs Mich and in. A loss would likely send them to wrong side of bubble. With only 1 win, they will still be sweating out Selection Sunday if there are a number of bid thieves/other bubble teams making deep conference tourney runs.

2 wins for Mich likely gets them in last 4 in, barring bid thieves, etc. A trip to B1G Finals, and they are likely in no matter what. For some reason, I feel we are going to see UNC vs Mich in last 4 play in game.

Wisconsin needs two wins. MN will not move needle for them. I think beating Maryland will get them in, but they will likewise be sweating. 3 wins and they are completely safe, imo.

Penn State needs 1 win to feel safe. A loss and they will be sweating on Selection Sunday. So...let's make them sweat it out!
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Wisconsin plays OSU then Iowa if they win.
 
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