Capt. Obvious has done a study of college basketball this season and here are the results (disclaimer: not as good as NET, but roughly equivalent to the AP poll):
Other than Auburn and Duke (and sometimes including them, as demonstrated last night), all the other top 75 teams fall roughly in these categories:
1) Team A plays well, Team B not so much, Team A wins
2) Team B plays well, Team A not so much, Team B wins
3) Both teams play well, coin flip
4) Both teams play poorly, coin flip
Digging deeper, anytime Team A has Dickinson and Team B has CoHawk, Team B wins
Team A shoots 40+ 3's...and hits <15%, Team B wins
Team A unleashes Will downhill, Tomi serves as an AWACS (Airborne Early Warning & Control System) on both ends of the floor & the real KJ shows up, Team A wins 90% of the time