Pregame: Illinois at Indiana, Saturday, September 20th, 6:30pm CT, NBC

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#502      
I would be very interested to see those 7 games listed.


I'm not going to research this but I'm guessing it's some form of the following

2021 Virginia
2021 UTSA
2022 Michigan
2022 Miss State (?)
2023 Kansas
2023 Penn State
 
#503      
View attachment 43731
Wow, Mendoza is so good. I wish IL had a QB anywhere close to him statistically. Even better if he also hadn’t thrown an INT all year.

Edited to add: I think this going to be a really close game. These are two well-matched, extremely well-coached teams.
IU has rushed for 300+ yards in all 3 games as well
 
#504      
Beebe’s last touch was with 9:34 left in the 3rd quarter. Not many coaches anywhere are going to pull guys at halftime. Although the QB was pulled at halftime with a 45-0 lead.
Like last year, IU doesn't have a featured back. Beebe was one of 3 backs who shared nearly equal touches with Black and Hemby.
 
#505      
I don't believe we're going 12-0 in the regular season. This shapes up to be one of our top 3-4 toughest games --- AND it's on the road. The first half performances against both Duke and WMU scare me just a bit.

45 IND
31 ILL

(I could only predict a win EVERY week if we were UGA, Ohio State or Alabama. We're just not yet in that stratosphere. Now if we were to win 14-0 it would prove that I know absolutely nothing about this team!)

ILL !!!!!
 
#506      
How big of a loss is their RB in this game?
Big in the sense that Beebe is a different style back than Hemby and Black. Hemby and Black are both speedsters with home run ability, Beebe more downhill that gets you yards after contact.
 
#508      
Stark contrast in playoff prospects, mirroring the coaches’ polls.

CBS projecting an 11-1 record. File that under things I didn't think I'd see. Bret could run for governor, mayor, have a statue built & have his name added to the Zuppke Field name.
 
#509      
I don't believe we're going 12-0 in the regular season. This shapes up to be one of our top 3-4 toughest games --- AND it's on the road. The first half performances against both Duke and WMU scare me just a bit.

45 IND
31 ILL

(I could only predict a win EVERY week if we were UGA, Ohio State or Alabama. We're just not yet in that stratosphere. Now if we were to win 14-0 it would prove that I know absolutely nothing about this team!)

ILL !!!!!
In that case, I sincerely hope that you know nothing about this team. 😆
 
#510      
The big difference between the two in QB play is in their scramble ability and sacks.

Luke’s taken 9 sacks.
Mendoza just 1 sack.

Overall Luke 17 rushes -12 yards
Mendoza 15 rushes 72 yards

Those negative plays are what leads to drive killers. And whether you blame the o line, QB, OC- 9 sacks vs 1 sack is a rather large discrepancy in 3 games
If those are the big differences why did you point to Mendoza's completion %?

It's clear that you think Indiana is going to crush Illinois, and that you're not actually interested in hearing anything that challenges that opinion. So, why are you here? Why not go write Cignetti/Mendoza fanfic on a site that will appreciate it?
 
#513      
I have never seen a box score like this. ODU averaged 7.0 yards per play to Indiana's 5.6, yet only ran 45 plays to Indiana's 89. Being -2 in the TO dept didn't help. Still super odd to only get half the plays of your opponent when you're averaging more yards per play.

*Edit: Looking at it deeper, almost half of ODU's yards came on 2 plays. Outside of those 2 plays, they averaged just 3.7 yards per play.

View attachment 43728
And both those plays were option keepers by a QB who's a much better runner than Luke, so we're not going to be co-opt that strategy.
 
#514      
Lets keep the hype train UP! 30-24 ILL! I love the idea of us winning on a last minute TD and walking off the field in front of a completely silent IU crowd, but I'll take a W by whatever means necessary.

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#515      
I'm not going to research this but I'm guessing it's some form of the following

2021 Virginia
2021 UTSA
2022 Michigan
2022 Miss State (?)
2023 Kansas
2023 Penn State
We have a team as least comparable if not better than last year's team. Therefore, games before the 2024-2025 season are irrelevant for the most part. Last year we lost to two top 45 PPG teams, Penn State (#5 AP/#22 PPG) and Oregon (#3 AP/#8 PPG), in their houses by large margins. I don't think this Indiana team is as good as those two teams but it will be a tough fight nonetheless. I expect it to be a closer game than the two games mentioned above.
 
#517      
If those are the big differences why did you point to Mendoza's completion %?

It's clear that you think Indiana is going to crush Illinois, and that you're not actually interested in hearing anything that challenges that opinion. So, why are you here? Why not go write Cignetti/Mendoza fanfic on a site that will appreciate it?

LOL yea Mendoza's 72 rushing yards across 3 games is what is going to completely end us en route to a 4 TD blowout in favor of IU

Same guy who rushed for 191 yards on 136 carries across 2 full seasons at Cal

Also never mind that our DC/scheme held a QB in a bowl game to 19 yards rushing on 11 carries who had previously ran for 166 yards vs #12 Clemson, 106 yards vs #10 TA&M and 88 yards vs #16 LSU etc etc

Lets just be hopeful we can keep his rushing totals under the 'Mendoza line' :ROFLMAO: ☠️
 
#519      
If you’re rotating backs with an insurmountable lead and a shutout, most coaches would give playing time to backups. Did IU fear losing the game if they let up with only a 45-0 lead? Outcome still in doubt? Feeling insecure?

What exactly is the point of running up the score on an overwhelmed cupcake? They’ve already taken enough of a beating to have earned their money. It comes across as either a lack of confidence or something worse, cruelty. Once the game is decided, confident teams exercise their depth and minimize risks to starters on both sides.
Just for the record: Outside of Illinois' big 3 at RB - Jordan Anderson has taken 1 carry (that in short yardage, not end of game). That's everyone who has played RB @ Illinois so far this year.
 
#521      
Woo boy I’ve seen a lot of bad arguments on here. Here’s some things to digest. If you’re a tl;dr kinda reader, just skip to #5 as I think it’s the most important and novel idea that I haven’t seen elsewhere yet.

1. Whoever compared Mendoza and Altmyer’s stats through 3 games is a little silly. Mendoza’s been pulled early in, I believe, all of their games except Old Dominion. Volume stats (TD’s, Yards) aren’t a fair comparison.

2. Someone pointed out margin of victory on common opponents. Not sure if that person is aware of how Indiana does things versus Illinois, but Brett really doesn’t run up the score for the sake of doing so. Cignetti’s about that life. I could not care less about margin of victory because we win in two different styles. …except the Purdue game. I get that lol

3. Re: “Cupcakes” - I watched the Old Dominion game. It was week one rust, but I think 2 things are true. First, Old Dominion is a good football team. I think they play Duke a tight game, if not winning it. That said, we played ours on the road (kinda) in blistering heat, where Indiana got Old Dominion at home, perfect weather, first game of the year. There’s rust being knocked off, etc….theres really so many layers to trying to make any comparisons there that I don’t think it’s a fair set of games to compare, at all.

4. Mendoza, to be honest, looks like he makes bad decisions when he’s pressured. I do not think he’s come close to facing the kind of defense we’ll put forward this weekend. If we can play bend-don’t-break football and pressure him into a few mistakes, I think defense can swing it similarly to the Duke game. I don’t think it causes a blowout, but I do think it can be the difference in a game where our OL might struggle a bit.

5. I’m gonna give a contrarian opinion to what I’ve heard a lot on podcasts and elsewhere. I know a lot of people are saying we can’t fall behind early. I actually disagree. We have heard many times now from our players, last year and this year, that they feel like the offense flows better when they’re playing with tempo. We are a team that can absolutely pass to set up the run and can fling the ball around the field. Getting into a horse race early might force Barry into getting out of the sleepy running early and allow us to get our depth at WR, TE and RB some extended reps. I think we’re built to do that. If we try to run the ball down their throats from the jump I think we stall drives. If we get on our toes quick I think that sets the pace for us. I’m okay with that and, frankly, hope it happens.

Illinois 34 - Indiana 27
 
#523      
I fully admit that I am an eternal pessimist when it comes to Illinois football. My outlook has definitely improved over the last few years with Bielema in charge though. My pre-season prediction was 8-4 with this game being one of the losses. I figured Duke would be a loss though, so I'm happy to be wrong there. With that said I hope that I'm wrong again when it comes to Indiana. As most will agree, our O-line play is a big concern but something tells me that this game will flip that on it's head. I believe that the line will come out with something to prove in this game and really bully the Indinia defense. There's no way that I'm going to jinx this team by making a prediction.
 
#524      
Woo boy I’ve seen a lot of bad arguments on here. Here’s some things to digest. If you’re a tl;dr kinda reader, just skip to #5 as I think it’s the most important and novel idea that I haven’t seen elsewhere yet.

1. Whoever compared Mendoza and Altmyer’s stats through 3 games is a little silly. Mendoza’s been pulled early in, I believe, all of their games except Old Dominion. Volume stats (TD’s, Yards) aren’t a fair comparison.
This was me. I thought the sarcasm was abundantly clear, but obviously not.

I think we’re in agreement on this. Stats are a bit hard to compare for early season games when the coaches approach things so differently.
 
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