Pregame: Illinois vs Michigan, Friday, February 27th, 7:00pm CT, FOX

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#276      
NarrowJ
RockfordIllini said:
What’s tough is the way we send 4 to the offensive glass makes us susceptible to transition baskets, just like against Michigan State. That’s why it’s so key we are successful in rebounding, to both get second chances and limit their chances in transition. I think the mark to hit is 35%. We get 35% or more of our misses back we should be in good shape. Less than that and we may give up too many transition points.
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This has to be the 100th time I've seen this misconception. This actually works the opposite way... teams have to send guys to the defensive glass which means there isn't anyone to leak out and create transition/fast break.

Illinois averages less than 9 fast break points allowed per game this season. In our last 3 games, since Kylan returned, we have allowed a grand total of 10 fast break points (0 to Indiana, 1 to USC, 9 to UCLA). But, lets also go back through some of the other games vs power conf opponents on our schedule: Illinois gave up gave up 4 fast break points to Texas Tech, 6 to UConn, 5 to Tennessee, 7 & 8 in the two meetings vs Nebraska, 3 to Missouri, 9 to Wisconsin in an OT game.

So to reiterate, our offensive rebounding actually does the opposite of what you state (and this is made very clear by the statistical data, of course) because crashing offensive glass forces defenders to stay home for box-outs, which reduces their numbers available to leak out. We also use a lot of the shot clock and get fouled / shoot free throws a lot which also does the opposite of quick misses that fuel fast breaks.

EDIT: Michigan State was an outlier where our best defensive player did not even play (we still got 31.3% of the rebounds on our end of the floor, plus 22 isn't like a ginormous number of fast break points... there are teams that average nearly that many).
 
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#277      
RockfordIllini
NarrowJ said:
This has to be the 100th time I've seen this misconception. This actually works the opposite way... teams have to send guys to the defensive glass which means there isn't anyone to leak out and create transition/fast break.

Illinois averages less than 9 fast break points allowed per game this season. In our last 3 games, since Kylan returned, we have allowed a grand total of 10 fast break points (0 to Indiana, 1 to USC, 9 to UCLA). But, lets also go back through some of the tougher games on our schedule: Illinois gave up gave up 4 fast break points to Texas Tech, 6 to UConn, 5 to Tennessee, 7 & 8 in the two meetings vs Nebraska, 3 to Missouri, 9 to Wisconsin in an OT game.

So to reiterate, our offensive rebounding actually does the opposite of what you state (and this is made very clear by the statistical data, of course) because crashing offensive glass forces defenders to stay home for box-outs, which reduces their numbers available to leak out. We also use a lot of the shot clock and get fouled / shoot free throws a lot which also does the opposite of quick misses that fuel fast breaks.
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Good data points but we did give up over 20 transition points to Sparty, who is suppose in fairness is better rebounding team than Michigan. But well taken and Sparty looks like an outlier though they are likely the best transition team of the bunch.

And despite giving up 20+ transition points and shooting poorly, we still almost won and probably would have won but for the refs putting their thumbs on the scale for Sparty in OT.

We’ve got a good shot to beat Michigan.
 
#278      
NarrowJ
RockfordIllini said:
Good data points but we did give up over 20 transition points to Sparty, who is suppose in fairness is better rebounding team than Michigan. But well taken and Sparty looks like an outlier though they are likely the best transition team of the bunch.

And despite giving up 20+ transition points and shooting poorly, we still almost won and probably would have won but for the refs putting their thumbs on the scale for Sparty in OT.

We’ve got a good shot to beat Michigan.
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Though, as I said, that was an outlier... most we'd allowed all season by a large margin... Kylan Boswell did not play... was not due to rebounding, we still secured 31.3% of the rebounds on our end of the floor. There are teams in NCAA that average nearly that many, so 22 is not an extreme number by any means.

Something that happened one time while our best defender was out is not something to worry about long term. Just reminds me of the whole free throw shooting thing after the Alabama game and we're like top 1% in the country in free throw percentage (#5 out of 365 teams).

For some reason, we as fans tend to pick our team's best attributes to 'worry' about. Why not worry about our ball screen navigation? That's what needs fixed, imo.
 
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#280      
RockfordIllini
NarrowJ said:
Though, as I said, that was an outlier... most we'd allowed all season by a large margin... Kylan Boswell did not play... was not due to rebounding, we still secured 31.3% of the rebounds on our end of the floor. There are teams in NCAA that average nearly that many, so 22 is not an extreme number by any means.

Something that happened one time while our best defender was out is not something to worry about long term. Just reminds me of the whole free throw shooting thing after the Alabama game and we're like top 1% in the country in free throw percentage (#5 out of 365 teams).
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Yes, it feels like 3-4 things have to happen that are outside the norm for us to lose and even then just barely.

Sparty- poor 3 pt shooting, giving up transition points, fouling plus missing our best perimeter defender.
Wisconsin - hot shooting from their bigs, missed FTs and turnovers (and mostly unforced turnovers) plus missing our 2 best perimeter defenders
UCLA - insane stretch of shooting for them and cold shooting for us for 30 ish minutes
 
#281      
altgeld88
RockfordIllini said:
Yes, it feels like 3-4 things have to happen that are outside the norm for us to lose and even then just barely.

Sparty- poor 3 pt shooting, giving up transition points, fouling plus missing our best perimeter defender.
Wisconsin - hot shooting from their bigs, missed FTs and turnovers (and mostly unforced turnovers) plus missing our 2 best perimeter defenders
UCLA - insane stretch of shooting for them and cold shooting for us for 30 ish minutes
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MSU outrebounded us. In particular we completely failed to keep Kohler off the glass. He had something like 15 boards. At the margin, allowing for BAM's absence, that's why we lost.

I can't imagine that our defense won't be intense and that we won't be hitting the glass hard on Friday evening, particularly given how we played last Saturday. Michigan shot poorly from three v. Duke and got outworked on the glass. Last night they didn't look particularly sharp. But they will be on Friday.

Have been looking forward to watching this one since the schedules were released. A year ago we took down Purdue at home on the last Friday in Feb on KJ's dagger. Love that we're getting these nationally-televised Fri/Sat night FOX games on a regular basis. LFG!
 
#282      
CvilleILFan
Anyone know of any watch parties or good places to watch the Michigan game in Daytona Beach? I will be down there for Bike week this weekend.
 
#283      
fatt lacosse
kinda scared of this one, i do NOT want to give up the big ten title to morez johnson in champaign with his dad in the house.

whether or not we have any shot to win it ourselves, this is a must-win game for purpose of being spared a horrible indignity.
 
#284      
Fighter of the Nightman
Put me in the camp that was surprised that we hadn't had a top 10 matchup in Champaign since 2006! For those curious, here were the near misses since that MSU game in 2006. I will define those as a game where one team was in the top 10 and the other team was at least in the top 15.

2012-2013
#8 Ohio State at #11 Illinois (ILL 74, OSU 55)
#8 Minnesota at #12 Illinois (MINN 84, ILL 67)

2023-2024
#3 Purdue at #12 Illinois (PUR 77, ILL 71)



Also interesting to note that during that same long stretch of time, we have played the following top 10 matchups away from Champaign:

2020-2021
#4 Illinois at #2 Michigan (ILL 76, MICH 53)
#4 Illinois at #7 Ohio State (ILL 73, OSU 68)
#5 Iowa vs. #3 Illinois (BTT Semifinals in Indianapolis, IN) [ILL 82, IOWA 71]
#9 Ohio State vs. #3 Illinois (BTT Championship in Indianapolis, IN) [ILL 91, OSU 88 in OT]

2023-2024
#9 Illinois at #1 Purdue (PUR 83, ILL 78)
#4 Iowa State vs. #10 Illinois (NCAAT Sweet Sixteen in Boston, MA) [ILL 72, ISU 69]
#10 Illinois vs. #1 UConn (NCAAT Elite Eight in Boston, MA) [UCONN 77, ILL 52]

2025-2026
#9 Illinois at #5 Nebraska (ILL 78, NEB 69)
#5 Illinois at #10 Michigan State (MSU 85, ILL 82 in OT)


And lastly, while it is not overly relevant to today, it looks like we are on a 4-game winning streak in top 10 matchups at home, and you would have to go back to January 1990 for our last loss. I won't say who that was against, lol...

2005-2006
#6 Illinois 60, #7 Michigan State 50

2004-2005
#5 Illinois 91, #1 Wake Forest 73

2000-2001
#7 Illinois 77, #4 Michigan State
#9 Illinois 87, #7 Seton Hall 79
 
#285      
thefalcon5
Hessel Blvd said:
i would not at all be surprised if we see some new defensive wrinkles that brad/cam have been keeping in the bag for this game.
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Ehhhh it’s real late in the season. If there were any serious changes I’d have expected them by now.

They did some unique trapping against USC, perhaps they can up the pressure.
 
#286      
Altuve27
@Indy Illini Fan discussed this the other day and it really applies here. Michigan has big time “spurtability”, as Clark Kellogg likes to call it.

Call a timeout IMMEDIATELY if things are starting to get away from you. It can happen very quickly with Michigan. If you need to call multiple timeouts early to calm the team down and quell momentum in the first half, you DO IT!

Brad, you have four timeouts for a reason. Don’t just sit there and watch things escalate. Please and thank you.
 
#288      
RabidDawgClassic
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#291      
skyIdub
Not sure if scUM was looking ahead last night or not....I'm certain they were to an extent....but they are not a big scary monster.
More like schizophrenic real housewives of Ann Arbor.

Illinois is the big scary monster. The monster got bored bludgeoning sky blue bears after 11 minutes and 3 days on the west coast. It almost woke up and pulled it out anyway.

I don't expect the monster to be bored with this one.

Krush and the SFCAH had better be primal Friyay night. I would like to continue to collect rent from scUM.
 
#294      
Piotyr
I just have a feeling about this game, like we're going to get a Illini-Wake Forest redux. Or an Illinois-Michigan redux from last year (where the team felt dead in the water going into the game and won by 20 anyway).
 
#296      
LuckyIllini
Mirk on Morez
Stoj on Yax
Jake/Ben on Burnett
Tomi/Z on Mara

My only concern is Wagler on Cadeau.
 
#297      
RockfordIllini
Seems like Minnesota was able to have a lot of success on back cuts. I wonder if we bring back our sets last year with Tomi as the fulcrum? Think Keaton, Kylan, Andrej and maybe even Ben (Yaxel looked like he fell asleep a lot against MN) could all have success back cutting. Lane should be open with Mara guarding Tomi and if defense collapses find an open shooter.
 
#299      
kyillinifan
With all the stats analysis and matchups. What isn't figured is the refs involvement in a game. We are at home which does help. Let's hope the crowd goes nuts all game.
 
#300      
Heisenbobble
LuckyIllini said:
Mirk on Morez
Stoj on Yax
Jake/Ben on Burnett
Tomi/Z on Mara

My only concern is Wagler on Cadeau.
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I would guess we'll see Bam or Ben on Yaxel with Wagler on Cadeau, Mirk on Morez (yikes), the Brothers Iv on Mara, and Jake or Andrej on Burnett. Might see a fair amount of zone in this one.
 
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