Bracketology

[Fighter of the Nightman]

Here are the #2 and #3 seeds (in order) on the current Bracket Matrix and the potential games they have lined up this week. Gives a decent idea of what chaos is possible. The rankings other than the bolded #2 and #3 seeds are current NET Rankings to give an idea of Quad ramifications. I'm stopping short of championship games just to keep it cleaner. I'm also discounting some of the crazier runs (e.g., #16 Utah beating #9 Cincinnati and then #8 UCF and then #1 Arizona all in a row) just to keep it more realistic.

Also, a reminder of the Quad classifications on a neutral court:
Quad 1A: #1-25
Other Quad 1: #26-50
Quad 2: #51-100
Quad 3: #101-200
Quad 4: #201+


#2 UConn
(1) vs. #91 Marquette (Q2) or #97 Xavier (Q2)
(2) vs. likely #33 Villanova (Q1)

#2 Houston
(1) vs. #58 West Virginia (Q2), #24 BYU (Q1) or #99 Kansas State (Q2)
(2) vs. #19 Kansas (Q1A) or #40 TCU (Q1)

#2 Michigan State
(1) vs. #34 UCLA (Q1), #74 Minnesota (Q2) or #143 Rutgers (Q3)

#2 Illinois
(1) vs. #26 Wisconsin (Q1), #61 Washington (Q2) or #78 USC (Q2)
(2) vs. likely #2 Michigan (Q1A)

#3 Iowa State
(1) vs. #67 Arizona State (Q2) or #48 Baylor (Q1)
(2) vs. #15 Texas Tech (Q1A)
(3) vs. likely #3 Arizona (Q1A)

#3 Nebraska
(1) vs. likely #10 Purdue (Q1A) or #37 Indiana (Q1)
(2) vs. likely #11 Michigan State (Q1A) or #34 UCLA (Q1)

#3 Purdue
(1) vs. #37 Indiana (Q1), #70 Northwestern (Q2) or #131 Penn State (Q3)
(2) vs. #12 Nebraska (Q1A)
(3) vs. likely #11 Michigan State (Q1A) or #34 UCLA (Q1)

#3 Alabama
(1) vs. #31 Georgia (Q1), #41 Texas (Q1) or #92 Ole Miss (Q2)
(2) vs. #18 Arkansas (Q1A) or #43 Texas A&M (Q1)


So, I think this would be your rooting guide for a dream scenario of conference tournament results for our Illini...

SEC Tournament
- I'm not sure if UConn can reclaim its #1 seed from Florida, but we obviously want Missouri to win as many games as possible for our own separate reasons, and I think it could knock UF back down to #2 seed territory (and therefore out of our path...) if they lost to Missouri on Friday morning. Mizzou would have to beat either Kentucky or LSU first, so that's hardly a done deal anyway.
- Not sure this one matters that much to us if you assume we are safely ahead of Alabama (the last #3 seed right now), but it wouldn't hurt for them to go down on Friday to (probably) Georgia or at least on Saturday to Arkansas. They'd probably remain in the top 25 of the NET (and therefore a Quad 1A loss) regardless.

Big East Tournament
- I also don't think this matters much unless we think UConn could sneak back up to a #1 seed. It would probably also require Florida losing early (see above) and no other #2 seeds going on a tear, but I guess in general we should want UConn to win this conference tournament in hopes of them being a #1 seed? You could also look at it that if UConn picked up a bad early loss and we made it to Sunday, we could even pass them in the #2 pecking order. This one probably isn't a huge deal either way.

Big XII Tournament
- In general, we want chaos.
- Definitely root for Iowa State to lose, as they're currently the top #3 seed and right on our tails as the last #2 seed. It would be great if they went down on Wednesday, but we at LEAST need them to lose to Texas Tech. If we lost on Friday and ISU made a run to their semifinals, we are daring the Committee to switch us, IMO.
- I doubt Kansas can catch us at this point, but why even give the Committee the chance to overrate a Blue Blood?? With that said, if KU does win its first game, we probably also want them to beat Houston.
- Speaking of Houston, it would also be great to see West Virginia or (more likely) BYU knock them off.

Big Ten Tournament
- This one is, needless to say, pretty huge!
- This is more of a "icing on the cake" thing, but it would be good if USC could find some way to get back into the top 75, giving us another Quad 1 win. I'll definitely be rooting for them vs. Washington on Wednesday!
- I personally think we should be more concerned about Nebraska than many here are. They've quietly moved JUST behind us in the Bracket Matrix, and things get really murky if we lose to Wisconsin (our 8th loss) and they make it to Sunday without a 6th loss, picking up two Quad 1 wins on the way (at which point, they would pass us). They very well could steal our St. Louis spot in such a scenario. It would be great for us if Purdue took them down, as I don't think the Boilers will pass us at this point.
- It would also be great for MSU to go down to UCLA on Friday. Not much more commentary needed, but in general we emerge as huge winners if anybody other than Nebraska or MSU are playing on Saturday on the bottom half of the bracket!
- This one is a bit more of a wild card, but it would be AWESOME if Iowa carried some momentum combined with frustration from their pretty good play and close losses lately, and then went on a tear. If they beat Oregon/Maryland, Ohio State and then somehow took down Michigan, this would be such a dream scenario for us. For one, Michigan would be out of the way if we beat Wisconsin, and the Wolverines really are a tough matchup for us. Second, Iowa would probably be pretty darn worn out by the time they would potentially play us on Saturday. Third, the computers still love Iowa, and they would be a Quad 1A win on a neutral court, and yet I think we match up pretty well with them.

 

[Piotyr]

Quick look at how set the tourney field is as of right now:

There are 31 auto bids. 22 of those are from conferences where no team is in at-large contention:
AE (UMBC)
American (Tulsa)
ASun (Queens)
Big Sky (Montana State)
Big South (High Point)
Big West (Hawaii)
CAA (Hofstra)
CUSA (Liberty)
Horizon (Wright State)
Ivy (Yale)
MAAC (Merrimack)
MEAC (Howard)
MVC (Northern Iowa)
NEC (LIU)
OVC (Tennessee State)
Patriot (Lehigh)
SoCon (ETSU)
Southland (McNeese)
Summit (North Dakota State)
Sun Belt (Troy)
SWAC (Bethune-Cookman)
WAC (Utah Valley)

That leaves 9 leagues, with 37 at large bids available for those teams (so 46 total spots).

The locks (98% and higher) (37):
A10 (1): Saint Louis
ACC (6): Duke, Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, Miami FL, Clemson
B1G (9): Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, UCLA, Iowa, Ohio State
Big 12 (7): Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas, BYU, TCU
Big East (3): UConn, St. John's, Villanova
MWC (1): Utah State
SEC (8): Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas A&M
WCC (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary's

Should be in (>70%) (3):
ACC: NC State
MAC: Miami OH
SEC: Missouri

On the bubble (10%-70%) (11 teams for 6 spots):
A10: VCU
ACC: SMU, Stanford, Virginia Tech
B1G: Indiana
Big 12: UCF, Cincinnati
SEC: Texas, Oklahoma, Auburn
WCC: Santa Clara

Keep in mind, that if someone other than Miami wins the MAC, or someone other than Saint Louis wins the A10, or someone other than Utah State wins the MWC, or an unexpected team wins one of the other majors, that would reduce the amount of bubble spots. Given that, there are only a few spots up for grabs at this point.

 

[LouHenson]

Here are the #2 and #3 seeds (in order) on the current Bracket Matrix and the potential games they have lined up this week. Gives a decent idea of what chaos is possible. The rankings other than the bolded #2 and #3 seeds are current NET Rankings to give an idea of Quad ramifications. I'm stopping short of championship games just to keep it cleaner. I'm also discounting some of the crazier runs (e.g., #16 Utah beating #9 Cincinnati and then #8 UCF and then #1 Arizona all in a row) just to keep it more realistic.

Also, a reminder of the Quad classifications on a neutral court:
Quad 1A: #1-25
Other Quad 1: #26-50
Quad 2: #51-100
Quad 3: #101-200
Quad 4: #201+


#2 UConn
(1) vs. #91 Marquette (Q2) or #97 Xavier (Q2)
(2) vs. likely #33 Villanova (Q1)

#2 Houston
(1) vs. #58 West Virginia (Q2), #24 BYU (Q1) or #99 Kansas State (Q2)
(2) vs. #19 Kansas (Q1A) or #40 TCU (Q1)

#2 Michigan State
(1) vs. #34 UCLA (Q1), #74 Minnesota (Q2) or #143 Rutgers (Q3)

#2 Illinois
(1) vs. #26 Wisconsin (Q1), #61 Washington (Q2) or #78 USC (Q2)
(2) vs. likely #2 Michigan (Q1A)

#3 Iowa State
(1) vs. #67 Arizona State (Q2) or #48 Baylor (Q1)
(2) vs. #15 Texas Tech (Q1A)
(3) vs. likely #3 Arizona (Q1A)

#3 Nebraska
(1) vs. likely #10 Purdue (Q1A) or #37 Indiana (Q1)
(2) vs. likely #11 Michigan State (Q1A) or #34 UCLA (Q1)

#3 Purdue
(1) vs. #37 Indiana (Q1), #70 Northwestern (Q2) or #131 Penn State (Q3)
(2) vs. #12 Nebraska (Q1A)
(3) vs. likely #11 Michigan State (Q1A) or #34 UCLA (Q1)

#3 Alabama
(1) vs. #31 Georgia (Q1), #41 Texas (Q1) or #92 Ole Miss (Q2)
(2) vs. #18 Arkansas (Q1A) or #43 Texas A&M (Q1)


So, I think this would be your rooting guide for a dream scenario of conference tournament results for our Illini...

SEC Tournament
- I'm not sure if UConn can reclaim its #1 seed from Florida, but we obviously want Missouri to win as many games as possible for our own separate reasons, and I think it could knock UF back down to #2 seed territory (and therefore out of our path...) if they lost to Missouri on Friday morning. Mizzou would have to beat either Kentucky or LSU first, so that's hardly a done deal anyway.
- Not sure this one matters that much to us if you assume we are safely ahead of Alabama (the last #3 seed right now), but it wouldn't hurt for them to go down on Friday to (probably) Georgia or at least on Saturday to Arkansas. They'd probably remain in the top 25 of the NET (and therefore a Quad 1A loss) regardless.

Big East Tournament
- I also don't think this matters much unless we think UConn could sneak back up to a #1 seed. It would probably also require Florida losing early (see above) and no other #2 seeds going on a tear, but I guess in general we should want UConn to win this conference tournament in hopes of them being a #1 seed? You could also look at it that if UConn picked up a bad early loss and we made it to Sunday, we could even pass them in the #2 pecking order. This one probably isn't a huge deal either way.

Big XII Tournament
- In general, we want chaos.
- Definitely root for Iowa State to lose, as they're currently the top #3 seed and right on our tails as the last #2 seed. It would be great if they went down on Wednesday, but we at LEAST need them to lose to Texas Tech. If we lost on Friday and ISU made a run to their semifinals, we are daring the Committee to switch us, IMO.
- I doubt Kansas can catch us at this point, but why even give the Committee the chance to overrate a Blue Blood?? With that said, if KU does win its first game, we probably also want them to beat Houston.
- Speaking of Houston, it would also be great to see West Virginia or (more likely) BYU knock them off.

Big Ten Tournament
- This one is, needless to say, pretty huge!
- This is more of a "icing on the cake" thing, but it would be good if USC could find some way to get back into the top 75, giving us another Quad 1 win. I'll definitely be rooting for them vs. Washington on Wednesday!
- I personally think we should be more concerned about Nebraska than many here are. They've quietly moved JUST behind us in the Bracket Matrix, and things get really murky if we lose to Wisconsin (our 8th loss) and they make it to Sunday without a 6th loss, picking up two Quad 1 wins on the way (at which point, they would pass us). They very well could steal our St. Louis spot in such a scenario. It would be great for us if Purdue took them down, as I don't think the Boilers will pass us at this point.
- It would also be great for MSU to go down to UCLA on Friday. Not much more commentary needed, but in general we emerge as huge winners if anybody other than Nebraska or MSU are playing on Saturday on the bottom half of the bracket!
- This one is a bit more of a wild card, but it would be AWESOME if Iowa carried some momentum combined with frustration from their pretty good play and close losses lately, and then went on a tear. If they beat Oregon/Maryland, Ohio State and then somehow took down Michigan, this would be such a dream scenario for us. For one, Michigan would be out of the way if we beat Wisconsin, and the Wolverines really are a tough matchup for us. Second, Iowa would probably be pretty darn worn out by the time they would potentially play us on Saturday. Third, the computers still love Iowa, and they would be a Quad 1A win on a neutral court, and yet I think we match up pretty well with them.

You are so good at this! I think at this point if we just beat Wisconsin everything is set up for us as a 2 in STL. Then losing to scUM Saturday does nothing but maybe give us some more rest. Also, part of me thinks of 1989. One team beat the crap out of the other twice, yet the loser won the NCAAT? I would really love nothing more than that!

 

[the juiceman cometh]

Quick look at how set the tourney field is as of right now:

There are 31 auto bids. 22 of those are from conferences where no team is in at-large contention:
AE (UMBC)
American (Tulsa)
ASun (Queens)
Big Sky (Montana State)
Big South (High Point)
Big West (Hawaii)
CAA (Hofstra)
CUSA (Liberty)
Horizon (Wright State)
Ivy (Yale)
MAAC (Merrimack)
MEAC (Howard)
MVC (Northern Iowa)
NEC (LIU)
OVC (Tennessee State)
Patriot (Lehigh)
SoCon (ETSU)
Southland (McNeese)
Summit (North Dakota State)
Sun Belt (Troy)
SWAC (Bethune-Cookman)
WAC (Utah Valley)

That leaves 9 leagues, with 37 at large bids available for those teams (so 46 total spots).

The locks (98% and higher) (37):
A10 (1): Saint Louis
ACC (6): Duke, Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, Miami FL, Clemson
B1G (9): Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, UCLA, Iowa, Ohio State
Big 12 (7): Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas, BYU, TCU
Big East (3): UConn, St. John's, Villanova
MWC (1): Utah State
SEC (8): Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas A&M
WCC (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary's

Should be in (>70%) (3):
ACC: NC State
MAC: Miami OH
SEC: Missouri

On the bubble (10%-70%) (11 teams for 6 spots):
A10: VCU
ACC: SMU, Stanford, Virginia Tech
B1G: Indiana
Big 12: UCF, Cincinnati
SEC: Texas, Oklahoma, Auburn
WCC: Santa Clara

Keep in mind, that if someone other than Miami wins the MAC, or someone other than Saint Louis wins the A10, or someone other than Utah State wins the MWC, or an unexpected team wins one of the other majors, that would reduce the amount of bubble spots. Given that, there are only a few spots up for grabs at this point.

Man, if you ever feel bad about our program, look at the resumes of some of the P4 teams who are on the bubble or in the lower end of the "Lock" category. Auburn, a bubble team, has a 7-14 Q1+Q2 record. Texas, a bubble team, has a 1-3 record in Q2 games, while their in-state rival Texas A&M, is a lock by virtue of a more robust 4-4 in Q2 games. TCU, another lock, has a Q3 and a Q4 loss on their resume. Stanford is on the bubble with 3(!!!) Q3 losses.

 

[aaeismacgychel]

Here are the #2 and #3 seeds (in order) on the current Bracket Matrix and the potential games they have lined up this week. Gives a decent idea of what chaos is possible. The rankings other than the bolded #2 and #3 seeds are current NET Rankings to give an idea of Quad ramifications. I'm stopping short of championship games just to keep it cleaner. I'm also discounting some of the crazier runs (e.g., #16 Utah beating #9 Cincinnati and then #8 UCF and then #1 Arizona all in a row) just to keep it more realistic.

Also, a reminder of the Quad classifications on a neutral court:
Quad 1A: #1-25
Other Quad 1: #26-50
Quad 2: #51-100
Quad 3: #101-200
Quad 4: #201+


#2 UConn
(1) vs. #91 Marquette (Q2) or #97 Xavier (Q2)
(2) vs. likely #33 Villanova (Q1)

#2 Houston
(1) vs. #58 West Virginia (Q2), #24 BYU (Q1) or #99 Kansas State (Q2)
(2) vs. #19 Kansas (Q1A) or #40 TCU (Q1)

#2 Michigan State
(1) vs. #34 UCLA (Q1), #74 Minnesota (Q2) or #143 Rutgers (Q3)

#2 Illinois
(1) vs. #26 Wisconsin (Q1), #61 Washington (Q2) or #78 USC (Q2)
(2) vs. likely #2 Michigan (Q1A)

#3 Iowa State
(1) vs. #67 Arizona State (Q2) or #48 Baylor (Q1)
(2) vs. #15 Texas Tech (Q1A)
(3) vs. likely #3 Arizona (Q1A)

#3 Nebraska
(1) vs. likely #10 Purdue (Q1A) or #37 Indiana (Q1)
(2) vs. likely #11 Michigan State (Q1A) or #34 UCLA (Q1)

#3 Purdue
(1) vs. #37 Indiana (Q1), #70 Northwestern (Q2) or #131 Penn State (Q3)
(2) vs. #12 Nebraska (Q1A)
(3) vs. likely #11 Michigan State (Q1A) or #34 UCLA (Q1)

#3 Alabama
(1) vs. #31 Georgia (Q1), #41 Texas (Q1) or #92 Ole Miss (Q2)
(2) vs. #18 Arkansas (Q1A) or #43 Texas A&M (Q1)


So, I think this would be your rooting guide for a dream scenario of conference tournament results for our Illini...

SEC Tournament
- I'm not sure if UConn can reclaim its #1 seed from Florida, but we obviously want Missouri to win as many games as possible for our own separate reasons, and I think it could knock UF back down to #2 seed territory (and therefore out of our path...) if they lost to Missouri on Friday morning. Mizzou would have to beat either Kentucky or LSU first, so that's hardly a done deal anyway.
- Not sure this one matters that much to us if you assume we are safely ahead of Alabama (the last #3 seed right now), but it wouldn't hurt for them to go down on Friday to (probably) Georgia or at least on Saturday to Arkansas. They'd probably remain in the top 25 of the NET (and therefore a Quad 1A loss) regardless.

Big East Tournament
- I also don't think this matters much unless we think UConn could sneak back up to a #1 seed. It would probably also require Florida losing early (see above) and no other #2 seeds going on a tear, but I guess in general we should want UConn to win this conference tournament in hopes of them being a #1 seed? You could also look at it that if UConn picked up a bad early loss and we made it to Sunday, we could even pass them in the #2 pecking order. This one probably isn't a huge deal either way.

Big XII Tournament
- In general, we want chaos.
- Definitely root for Iowa State to lose, as they're currently the top #3 seed and right on our tails as the last #2 seed. It would be great if they went down on Wednesday, but we at LEAST need them to lose to Texas Tech. If we lost on Friday and ISU made a run to their semifinals, we are daring the Committee to switch us, IMO.
- I doubt Kansas can catch us at this point, but why even give the Committee the chance to overrate a Blue Blood?? With that said, if KU does win its first game, we probably also want them to beat Houston.
- Speaking of Houston, it would also be great to see West Virginia or (more likely) BYU knock them off.

Big Ten Tournament
- This one is, needless to say, pretty huge!
- This is more of a "icing on the cake" thing, but it would be good if USC could find some way to get back into the top 75, giving us another Quad 1 win. I'll definitely be rooting for them vs. Washington on Wednesday!
- I personally think we should be more concerned about Nebraska than many here are. They've quietly moved JUST behind us in the Bracket Matrix, and things get really murky if we lose to Wisconsin (our 8th loss) and they make it to Sunday without a 6th loss, picking up two Quad 1 wins on the way (at which point, they would pass us). They very well could steal our St. Louis spot in such a scenario. It would be great for us if Purdue took them down, as I don't think the Boilers will pass us at this point.
- It would also be great for MSU to go down to UCLA on Friday. Not much more commentary needed, but in general we emerge as huge winners if anybody other than Nebraska or MSU are playing on Saturday on the bottom half of the bracket!
- This one is a bit more of a wild card, but it would be AWESOME if Iowa carried some momentum combined with frustration from their pretty good play and close losses lately, and then went on a tear. If they beat Oregon/Maryland, Ohio State and then somehow took down Michigan, this would be such a dream scenario for us. For one, Michigan would be out of the way if we beat Wisconsin, and the Wolverines really are a tough matchup for us. Second, Iowa would probably be pretty darn worn out by the time they would potentially play us on Saturday. Third, the computers still love Iowa, and they would be a Quad 1A win on a neutral court, and yet I think we match up pretty well with them.

Agreed on several counts. I do think there's a lot of room to fall to a 3 if we lose to Michigan, especially if Iowa State and Nebraska win a couple, but beating Wisconsin would put us pretty much on the precipice of a 2 as you expect some chaos to happen.

I'm with you on Iowa though. Historically in the BTT teams that won their first game have an advantage early against teams coming off a bye, and then the question is whether they can hold on in the 2nd Half. I like Iowa against Oregon or Maryland. I think they could get a fast start over OSU and hold on for dear life. And then Michigan. They made Michigan very uncomfortable in their game this year and Iowa sorta has that lull you to sleep type of game that can at times be effective against physical teams. Now do I think they actually beat Michigan if that's the matchup? No, I don't. But I could see them make Michigan sweat pretty hard late. Of course if they do that, I'd be scared to death as I'd rather not face a highly motivated Michigan the next game. But I certainly can see an Iowa run happening.

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

Agreed on several counts. I do think there's a lot of room to fall to a 3 if we lose to Michigan, especially if Iowa State and Nebraska win a couple, but beating Wisconsin would put us pretty much on the precipice of a 2 as you expect some chaos to happen.

I'm with you on Iowa though. Historically in the BTT teams that won their first game have an advantage early against teams coming off a bye, and then the question is whether they can hold on in the 2nd Half. I like Iowa against Oregon or Maryland. I think they could get a fast start over OSU and hold on for dear life. And then Michigan. They made Michigan very uncomfortable in their game this year and Iowa sorta has that lull you to sleep type of game that can at times be effective against physical teams. Now do I think they actually beat Michigan if that's the matchup? No, I don't. But I could see them make Michigan sweat pretty hard late. Of course if they do that, I'd be scared to death as I'd rather not face a highly motivated Michigan the next game. But I certainly can see an Iowa run happening.

Agreed, on the latter point, I think we would want (in order)...

(1) Obviously ideally, Iowa beats Michigan any way possible.
(2) If Michigan wins, hopefully it is in several overtimes and they are tired.
(3) If Michigan wins in regulation, hopefully they beat Iowa comfortably and feel super confident, possibly even complacent.
(4) By far the worst scenario, Michigan ends up pulling away from Iowa for a somewhat sure win but experiences a bit of a "wakeup call" that zaps them back into urgency mode.

 

[Piotyr]

Agreed, on the latter point, I think we would want (in order)...

(1) Obviously ideally, Iowa beats Michigan any way possible.
(2) If Michigan wins, hopefully it is in several overtimes and they are tired.
(3) If Michigan wins in regulation, hopefully they beat Iowa comfortably and feel super confident, possibly even complacent.
(4) By far the worst scenario, Michigan ends up pulling away from Iowa for a somewhat sure win but experiences a bit of a "wakeup call" that zaps them back into urgency mode.

1) Oregon goes on a wild run into the semifinals

 

[mhuml32]

Here are the #2 and #3 seeds (in order) on the current Bracket Matrix and the potential games they have lined up this week. Gives a decent idea of what chaos is possible. The rankings other than the bolded #2 and #3 seeds are current NET Rankings to give an idea of Quad ramifications. I'm stopping short of championship games just to keep it cleaner. I'm also discounting some of the crazier runs (e.g., #16 Utah beating #9 Cincinnati and then #8 UCF and then #1 Arizona all in a row) just to keep it more realistic.

Also, a reminder of the Quad classifications on a neutral court:
Quad 1A: #1-25
Other Quad 1: #26-50
Quad 2: #51-100
Quad 3: #101-200
Quad 4: #201+


#2 UConn
(1) vs. #91 Marquette (Q2) or #97 Xavier (Q2)
(2) vs. likely #33 Villanova (Q1)

#2 Houston
(1) vs. #58 West Virginia (Q2), #24 BYU (Q1) or #99 Kansas State (Q2)
(2) vs. #19 Kansas (Q1A) or #40 TCU (Q1)

#2 Michigan State
(1) vs. #34 UCLA (Q1), #74 Minnesota (Q2) or #143 Rutgers (Q3)

#2 Illinois
(1) vs. #26 Wisconsin (Q1), #61 Washington (Q2) or #78 USC (Q2)
(2) vs. likely #2 Michigan (Q1A)

#3 Iowa State
(1) vs. #67 Arizona State (Q2) or #48 Baylor (Q1)
(2) vs. #15 Texas Tech (Q1A)
(3) vs. likely #3 Arizona (Q1A)

#3 Nebraska
(1) vs. likely #10 Purdue (Q1A) or #37 Indiana (Q1)
(2) vs. likely #11 Michigan State (Q1A) or #34 UCLA (Q1)

#3 Purdue
(1) vs. #37 Indiana (Q1), #70 Northwestern (Q2) or #131 Penn State (Q3)
(2) vs. #12 Nebraska (Q1A)
(3) vs. likely #11 Michigan State (Q1A) or #34 UCLA (Q1)

#3 Alabama
(1) vs. #31 Georgia (Q1), #41 Texas (Q1) or #92 Ole Miss (Q2)
(2) vs. #18 Arkansas (Q1A) or #43 Texas A&M (Q1)


So, I think this would be your rooting guide for a dream scenario of conference tournament results for our Illini...

SEC Tournament
- I'm not sure if UConn can reclaim its #1 seed from Florida, but we obviously want Missouri to win as many games as possible for our own separate reasons, and I think it could knock UF back down to #2 seed territory (and therefore out of our path...) if they lost to Missouri on Friday morning. Mizzou would have to beat either Kentucky or LSU first, so that's hardly a done deal anyway.
- Not sure this one matters that much to us if you assume we are safely ahead of Alabama (the last #3 seed right now), but it wouldn't hurt for them to go down on Friday to (probably) Georgia or at least on Saturday to Arkansas. They'd probably remain in the top 25 of the NET (and therefore a Quad 1A loss) regardless.

Big East Tournament
- I also don't think this matters much unless we think UConn could sneak back up to a #1 seed. It would probably also require Florida losing early (see above) and no other #2 seeds going on a tear, but I guess in general we should want UConn to win this conference tournament in hopes of them being a #1 seed? You could also look at it that if UConn picked up a bad early loss and we made it to Sunday, we could even pass them in the #2 pecking order. This one probably isn't a huge deal either way.

Big XII Tournament
- In general, we want chaos.
- Definitely root for Iowa State to lose, as they're currently the top #3 seed and right on our tails as the last #2 seed. It would be great if they went down on Wednesday, but we at LEAST need them to lose to Texas Tech. If we lost on Friday and ISU made a run to their semifinals, we are daring the Committee to switch us, IMO.
- I doubt Kansas can catch us at this point, but why even give the Committee the chance to overrate a Blue Blood?? With that said, if KU does win its first game, we probably also want them to beat Houston.
- Speaking of Houston, it would also be great to see West Virginia or (more likely) BYU knock them off.

Big Ten Tournament
- This one is, needless to say, pretty huge!
- This is more of a "icing on the cake" thing, but it would be good if USC could find some way to get back into the top 75, giving us another Quad 1 win. I'll definitely be rooting for them vs. Washington on Wednesday!
- I personally think we should be more concerned about Nebraska than many here are. They've quietly moved JUST behind us in the Bracket Matrix, and things get really murky if we lose to Wisconsin (our 8th loss) and they make it to Sunday without a 6th loss, picking up two Quad 1 wins on the way (at which point, they would pass us). They very well could steal our St. Louis spot in such a scenario. It would be great for us if Purdue took them down, as I don't think the Boilers will pass us at this point.
- It would also be great for MSU to go down to UCLA on Friday. Not much more commentary needed, but in general we emerge as huge winners if anybody other than Nebraska or MSU are playing on Saturday on the bottom half of the bracket!
- This one is a bit more of a wild card, but it would be AWESOME if Iowa carried some momentum combined with frustration from their pretty good play and close losses lately, and then went on a tear. If they beat Oregon/Maryland, Ohio State and then somehow took down Michigan, this would be such a dream scenario for us. For one, Michigan would be out of the way if we beat Wisconsin, and the Wolverines really are a tough matchup for us. Second, Iowa would probably be pretty darn worn out by the time they would potentially play us on Saturday. Third, the computers still love Iowa, and they would be a Quad 1A win on a neutral court, and yet I think we match up pretty well with them.

Awesome breakdown. Biggest takeaway for me is Iowa State losing early is optimal outcome.

 

[Altuve27]

Here are the #2 and #3 seeds (in order) on the current Bracket Matrix and the potential games they have lined up this week. Gives a decent idea of what chaos is possible. The rankings other than the bolded #2 and #3 seeds are current NET Rankings to give an idea of Quad ramifications. I'm stopping short of championship games just to keep it cleaner. I'm also discounting some of the crazier runs (e.g., #16 Utah beating #9 Cincinnati and then #8 UCF and then #1 Arizona all in a row) just to keep it more realistic.

Also, a reminder of the Quad classifications on a neutral court:
Quad 1A: #1-25
Other Quad 1: #26-50
Quad 2: #51-100
Quad 3: #101-200
Quad 4: #201+


#2 UConn
(1) vs. #91 Marquette (Q2) or #97 Xavier (Q2)
(2) vs. likely #33 Villanova (Q1)

#2 Houston
(1) vs. #58 West Virginia (Q2), #24 BYU (Q1) or #99 Kansas State (Q2)
(2) vs. #19 Kansas (Q1A) or #40 TCU (Q1)

#2 Michigan State
(1) vs. #34 UCLA (Q1), #74 Minnesota (Q2) or #143 Rutgers (Q3)

#2 Illinois
(1) vs. #26 Wisconsin (Q1), #61 Washington (Q2) or #78 USC (Q2)
(2) vs. likely #2 Michigan (Q1A)

#3 Iowa State
(1) vs. #67 Arizona State (Q2) or #48 Baylor (Q1)
(2) vs. #15 Texas Tech (Q1A)
(3) vs. likely #3 Arizona (Q1A)

#3 Nebraska
(1) vs. likely #10 Purdue (Q1A) or #37 Indiana (Q1)
(2) vs. likely #11 Michigan State (Q1A) or #34 UCLA (Q1)

#3 Purdue
(1) vs. #37 Indiana (Q1), #70 Northwestern (Q2) or #131 Penn State (Q3)
(2) vs. #12 Nebraska (Q1A)
(3) vs. likely #11 Michigan State (Q1A) or #34 UCLA (Q1)

#3 Alabama
(1) vs. #31 Georgia (Q1), #41 Texas (Q1) or #92 Ole Miss (Q2)
(2) vs. #18 Arkansas (Q1A) or #43 Texas A&M (Q1)


So, I think this would be your rooting guide for a dream scenario of conference tournament results for our Illini...

SEC Tournament
- I'm not sure if UConn can reclaim its #1 seed from Florida, but we obviously want Missouri to win as many games as possible for our own separate reasons, and I think it could knock UF back down to #2 seed territory (and therefore out of our path...) if they lost to Missouri on Friday morning. Mizzou would have to beat either Kentucky or LSU first, so that's hardly a done deal anyway.
- Not sure this one matters that much to us if you assume we are safely ahead of Alabama (the last #3 seed right now), but it wouldn't hurt for them to go down on Friday to (probably) Georgia or at least on Saturday to Arkansas. They'd probably remain in the top 25 of the NET (and therefore a Quad 1A loss) regardless.

Big East Tournament
- I also don't think this matters much unless we think UConn could sneak back up to a #1 seed. It would probably also require Florida losing early (see above) and no other #2 seeds going on a tear, but I guess in general we should want UConn to win this conference tournament in hopes of them being a #1 seed? You could also look at it that if UConn picked up a bad early loss and we made it to Sunday, we could even pass them in the #2 pecking order. This one probably isn't a huge deal either way.

Big XII Tournament
- In general, we want chaos.
- Definitely root for Iowa State to lose, as they're currently the top #3 seed and right on our tails as the last #2 seed. It would be great if they went down on Wednesday, but we at LEAST need them to lose to Texas Tech. If we lost on Friday and ISU made a run to their semifinals, we are daring the Committee to switch us, IMO.
- I doubt Kansas can catch us at this point, but why even give the Committee the chance to overrate a Blue Blood?? With that said, if KU does win its first game, we probably also want them to beat Houston.
- Speaking of Houston, it would also be great to see West Virginia or (more likely) BYU knock them off.

Big Ten Tournament
- This one is, needless to say, pretty huge!
- This is more of a "icing on the cake" thing, but it would be good if USC could find some way to get back into the top 75, giving us another Quad 1 win. I'll definitely be rooting for them vs. Washington on Wednesday!
- I personally think we should be more concerned about Nebraska than many here are. They've quietly moved JUST behind us in the Bracket Matrix, and things get really murky if we lose to Wisconsin (our 8th loss) and they make it to Sunday without a 6th loss, picking up two Quad 1 wins on the way (at which point, they would pass us). They very well could steal our St. Louis spot in such a scenario. It would be great for us if Purdue took them down, as I don't think the Boilers will pass us at this point.
- It would also be great for MSU to go down to UCLA on Friday. Not much more commentary needed, but in general we emerge as huge winners if anybody other than Nebraska or MSU are playing on Saturday on the bottom half of the bracket!
- This one is a bit more of a wild card, but it would be AWESOME if Iowa carried some momentum combined with frustration from their pretty good play and close losses lately, and then went on a tear. If they beat Oregon/Maryland, Ohio State and then somehow took down Michigan, this would be such a dream scenario for us. For one, Michigan would be out of the way if we beat Wisconsin, and the Wolverines really are a tough matchup for us. Second, Iowa would probably be pretty darn worn out by the time they would potentially play us on Saturday. Third, the computers still love Iowa, and they would be a Quad 1A win on a neutral court, and yet I think we match up pretty well with them.

I don’t have the patience to type all that. I think our scenario is probably this: Beat Wisconsin Friday and we are a 2 seed. Lose Friday and it’s very likely that we are a 3 seed.

 

[RabidDawgClassic]

Last year was as chalky as chalk tournaments have ever been with all four #1s making the Final Four and three 2s and one 3 making the elite eight. There were few significant upsets throughout the tourney with only 10 seed Arkansas advancing to the Sweet 16.

Now… the question is, was that a one year anomaly or a by-product of the Portal/NIL era? Are all the former good mid-major players now at P5 programs, reducing the potential for mid-major upsets? Are the top teams nearly unbeatable because they acquired the best collection of talent? Should be interesting to see if we’re establishing a trend of if last year was a one-off.

 

[BatteredWifeSchwartz]

At this point (assuming we get a 2 seed), my best case scenario for a draw is:

1 seed: Arizona
3 seed: Gonzaga
7 seed: Villanova
10 seed: UCF

That’s a very manageable group of teams. I’m sure things will change on the 7 and 10 line, but basically all I want is teams that really struggle against size.

 

[wc_illini]

Last year was as chalky as chalk tournaments have ever been with all four #1s making the Final Four and three 2s and one 3 making the elite eight. There were few significant upsets throughout the tourney with only 10 seed Arkansas advancing to the Sweet 16.

Now… the question is, was that a one year anomaly or a by-product of the Portal/NIL era? Are all the former good mid-major players now at P5 programs, reducing the potential for mid-major upsets? Are the top teams nearly unbeatable because they acquired the best collection of talent? Should be interesting to see if we’re establishing a trend of if last year was a one-off.

Intuitively, I can see how the portal/NIL shift talent from the mid-tier to the top tier programs (not necessarily aligned with conferences, since Gonzaga might pull in more than the bottom feeder P5 teams).

But the top 10 doesn't align with top 10 in spending. I don't think Arizona has a top-10 NIL budget this year, do they? And Kentucky spent the most, right?

So I would have expected the first round or two to be very chalky, but more typical after that.

 

[thefalcon5]

I still believe heavily in this team. FF caliber.

We also are extremely metric dependent. Or maybe they aren’t as segregated as it seems. I personally don’t think I’ve watched a top 5 team (which we are) over the past 30 days, according to torvik.

Our scheduling couldn’t possibly have been better. Not saying we’d be a “weak” 2 seed but man it sure feels like we aren’t one. Again maybe recency bias and I’m happy this team is in the position it is but woof with some of these recent performances.


And for fun, Wisconsin is 7th in that same time frame.

 

[Illinicpa14]

Last year was as chalky as chalk tournaments have ever been with all four #1s making the Final Four and three 2s and one 3 making the elite eight. There were few significant upsets throughout the tourney with only 10 seed Arkansas advancing to the Sweet 16.

Now… the question is, was that a one year anomaly or a by-product of the Portal/NIL era? Are all the former good mid-major players now at P5 programs, reducing the potential for mid-major upsets? Are the top teams nearly unbeatable because they acquired the best collection of talent? Should be interesting to see if we’re establishing a trend of if last year was a one-off.

I feel like both can be true. The NIL stuff all makes sense…it’s also a single elimination tournament with 18-23 year olds where a 9 point line is the equivalent of 3 shots when most teams take a lot of 3s

 

[OrangeBlue98]

Agreed on several counts. I do think there's a lot of room to fall to a 3 if we lose to Michigan, especially if Iowa State and Nebraska win a couple, but beating Wisconsin would put us pretty much on the precipice of a 2 as you expect some chaos to happen.

I'm with you on Iowa though. Historically in the BTT teams that won their first game have an advantage early against teams coming off a bye, and then the question is whether they can hold on in the 2nd Half. I like Iowa against Oregon or Maryland. I think they could get a fast start over OSU and hold on for dear life. And then Michigan. They made Michigan very uncomfortable in their game this year and Iowa sorta has that lull you to sleep type of game that can at times be effective against physical teams. Now do I think they actually beat Michigan if that's the matchup? No, I don't. But I could see them make Michigan sweat pretty hard late. Of course if they do that, I'd be scared to death as I'd rather not face a highly motivated Michigan the next game. But I certainly can see an Iowa run happening.

This is what I’m worried about. To be clear, I do want Illinois to always win. But if there was EVER a time where I wouldn’t be overly upset with not winning as long as it didn’t hurt Illinois, a potential Saturday game would be it.

This team just feels fatigued right now. Not a huge surprise, as it’s a team that hasn’t played a deep bench and has two freshman playing major minutes. It’s the same type of logic that marathoners use when they “taper”.
Just feels like extra rest and recovery would be more beneficial for a NCAA tournament run. But, it’s competition and I know these guys want to win everything they can.

 

[Piotyr]

I still believe heavily in this team. FF caliber.

We also are extremely metric dependent. Or maybe they aren’t as segregated as it seems. I personally don’t think I’ve watched a top 5 team (which we are) over the past 30 days, according to torvik.

Our scheduling couldn’t possibly have been better. Not saying we’d be a “weak” 2 seed but man it sure feels like we aren’t one. Again maybe recency bias and I’m happy this team is in the position it is but woof with some of these recent performances.


And for fun, Wisconsin is 7th in that same time frame.

I think this is largely due to the negative vibes in this forum overall. This is a team with 7 losses, 4 of which were coinflip games, one where they shot so low on free throws it's an obvious outlier, one where they couldn't hit the broad side of a barn with a shot and still were in it with 2 minutes left, and one where they didn't bring a great effort against the #1 team.

Meanwhile, they've won the most Q1A games of anyone, don't have a bad loss, and have beaten multiple tournament at large teams by 20+. Every metric you look at has this team in the top 5 or 6, they have the most efficient offense in history and their KenPom rating of 32.67 is identical to the rating of the 2005 team. There's just multiple elite teams this year, and not bringing their best against Michigan really left a sour taste for a week, especially after blowing a lead against UCLA in a game they were just dominating for 10 minutes. It's that 10 day stretch that just turned so many detractors into overdrive that it's borderline embarrassing.

 

[March2TheArch]

I think this is largely due to the negative vibes in this forum overall. This is a team with 7 losses, 4 of which were coinflip games, one where they shot so low on free throws it's an obvious outlier, one where they couldn't hit the broad side of a barn with a shot and still were in it with 2 minutes left, and one where they didn't bring a great effort against the #1 team.

Meanwhile, they've won the most Q1A games of anyone, don't have a bad loss, and have beaten multiple tournament at large teams by 20+. Every metric you look at has this team in the top 5 or 6, they have the most efficient offense in history and their KenPom rating of 32.67 is identical to the rating of the 2005 team. There's just multiple elite teams this year, and not bringing their best against Michigan really left a sour taste for a week, especially after blowing a lead against UCLA in a game they were just dominating for 10 minutes. It's that 10 day stretch that just turned so many detractors into overdrive that it's borderline embarrassing.

It’s called historic bias. This team has had one second weekend since title run when we had a lottery pick PG who was a top PG in the NBA for a half decade.

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

I think this is largely due to the negative vibes in this forum overall. This is a team with 7 losses, 4 of which were coinflip games, one where they shot so low on free throws it's an obvious outlier, one where they couldn't hit the broad side of a barn with a shot and still were in it with 2 minutes left, and one where they didn't bring a great effort against the #1 team.

Meanwhile, they've won the most Q1A games of anyone, don't have a bad loss, and have beaten multiple tournament at large teams by 20+. Every metric you look at has this team in the top 5 or 6, they have the most efficient offense in history and their KenPom rating of 32.67 is identical to the rating of the 2005 team. There's just multiple elite teams this year, and not bringing their best against Michigan really left a sour taste for a week, especially after blowing a lead against UCLA in a game they were just dominating for 10 minutes. It's that 10 day stretch that just turned so many detractors into overdrive that it's borderline embarrassing.

I'm still high on this team, but I do not think that's a fair assessment, either. I would argue you don't need too analytical of an approach to just see that the "eye test" is far superior in the four games before UCLA and our previous four games ... and they are both 2-2 records (using NET Rankings below).

Feb. 7 - L 82-85 in OT at #11 Michigan State (without Boswell)
Feb. 10 - L 90-92 in OT vs. #26 Wisconsin (without Boswell or Andrej)
Feb. 15 - W 71-51 vs. #37 Indiana (without Boswell or Andrej)
Feb. 18 - W 101-65 at #78 USC
---> 86.0 to 73.3 vs. average of #38 NET
...

Feb. 21 - L 94-95 in OT at #34 UCLA
Feb. 27 - L 70-84 vs. #2 Michigan
March 3 - W 80-54 vs. #102 Oregon
March 8 - W 78-72 at #151 Maryland
---> 80.5 to 76.3 vs. average of #72 NET

... were a lot better than these 8 games.

Especially when you consider how shorthanded we were during that first stretch of games (not to mention a 12-game winning streak right before it!!), I think fans reasonably expected to look a little better over our last four. I don't think you'd hear much grumbling at all in a scenario where the following happened, ending with the same record.

(1) We were neck and neck with UCLA all game and lost in the same way, rather than blowing a 20-point lead.
(2) We gave Michigan a similar scare as Iowa just gave them, while still coming up short due to just being a bit outmatched.
(3) Oregon win stays the same.
(4) We beat Maryland at least as handily as, say, our road game at Northwestern.

I just really don't think it's unfair to say we've looked a lot shakier since the second half of the UCLA game than before it, with the incredibly welcome exception of our performance vs. Oregon. In fact, I think if we had just looked better beating Maryland, the narrative would have changed pretty quickly to the Oregon win being our clear "bounce-back game." Personally, I have moved into a rather optimistic spot heading into Friday. However, I don't think every fan who's a bit more worried than they were after we beat USC is being unreasonable, either.

 

[thefalcon5]

I think (obviously swapping the ucla game for a win) that if over our past four games we made two more threes in each of them the perception surrounding this team would be night and day.

We win against ucla, Michigan is slightly closer, Oregon is still Oregon, and we probably have a good enough cushion in that Maryland game that it doesn’t feel like a 38 min sweat.

I think the good news is we’ve still played very good offense for the most part. It seems like some guys have missed wide open threes they’d normally make. Maybe they’re regressing back to a mean but this late in the year a 4 game stretch is an anomaly more often than a trend.

 

[Oracle21]

I don’t have the patience to type all that. I think our scenario is probably this: Beat Wisconsin Friday and we are a 2 seed. Lose Friday and it’s very likely that we are a 3 seed.

Agree. I think the only way you get a 3 if you win Friday (and then lose to Michigan) is if Iowa State makes a run beating Arizona also on Friday. I think Iowa State passes you if that happens.

I don’t see the Committee putting the loser of the MSU/Nebraska game ahead of Illinois. But I guess it’s possible. Both would have more quad 1 wins. If Nebraska wins that game they are for sure the 2. And MSU would have the H2H on Illinois

So I think root for 3 things to get the #2.

#1 Beat Wisconsin
#2. Hope Nebraska loses
#3. Hope Iowa State loses

 

[AssemblyHallForever]

Winning Friday is paramount. If we lose on Saturday to Michigan, it necessarily not a bad thing as it will give us another day of rest. We desperately need it. We aren’t getting a 1 seed so winning the conference tourney will not help us. If we are a 2, we will be in STL in the West Region. I would love to beat Michigan but I would rather beat them in the Final Four

 

[Scoregasm]

Winning Friday is paramount. If we lose on Saturday to Michigan, it necessarily not a bad thing as it will give us another day of rest. We desperately need it. We aren’t getting a 1 seed so winning the conference tourney will not help us. If we are a 2, we will be in STL in the West Region. I would love to beat Michigan but I would rather beat them in the Final Four

I hope being in the west means we get Arizona as our 1 seed and not Duke.

 

[chrisRunner7]

I hope being in the west means we get Arizona as our 1 seed and not Duke.

I don't want to play either team, but part of this depends on the status of Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba for Duke and whether they'll be playing in the tournament. I think I would take a shorthanded Duke, even though that means Cam Boozer will abuse Humrichous and we'll end up sticking Boswell on him at some point.

And I think we struggle when we can't rebound our missed three-pointers. Awaka, Krivas, and Koa Pete would be awfully tough inside.

 

[Illini in Indiana]

Got to admit its been a great year. Our Illini being a #2 seed is a pretty cool!
Nice job to all in the coaching staff and players.

Elite

 

[Weatherspoon1]

This is what I’m worried about. To be clear, I do want Illinois to always win. But if there was EVER a time where I wouldn’t be overly upset with not winning as long as it didn’t hurt Illinois, a potential Saturday game would be it.

This team just feels fatigued right now. Not a huge surprise, as it’s a team that hasn’t played a deep bench and has two freshman playing major minutes. It’s the same type of logic that marathoners use when they “taper”.
Just feels like extra rest and recovery would be more beneficial for a NCAA tournament run. But, it’s competition and I know these guys want to win everything they can.

Absolutely . A loss to Michigan does zero damage. Of course I hope we win but if not zero worries. I just want the NCAA chip for once in my life. Just one.