Bracketology

Fighter of the Nightman said:

Here are the #2 and #3 seeds (in order) on the current Bracket Matrix and the potential games they have lined up this week. Gives a decent idea of what chaos is possible. The rankings other than the bolded #2 and #3 seeds are current NET Rankings to give an idea of Quad ramifications. I'm stopping short of championship games just to keep it cleaner. I'm also discounting some of the crazier runs (e.g., #16 Utah beating #9 Cincinnati and then #8 UCF and then #1 Arizona all in a row) just to keep it more realistic.

Also, a reminder of the Quad classifications on a neutral court:
Quad 1A: #1-25
Other Quad 1: #26-50
Quad 2: #51-100
Quad 3: #101-200
Quad 4: #201+


#2 UConn
(1) vs. #91 Marquette (Q2) or #97 Xavier (Q2)
(2) vs. likely #33 Villanova (Q1)

#2 Houston
(1) vs. #58 West Virginia (Q2), #24 BYU (Q1) or #99 Kansas State (Q2)
(2) vs. #19 Kansas (Q1A) or #40 TCU (Q1)

#2 Michigan State
(1) vs. #34 UCLA (Q1), #74 Minnesota (Q2) or #143 Rutgers (Q3)

#2 Illinois
(1) vs. #26 Wisconsin (Q1), #61 Washington (Q2) or #78 USC (Q2)
(2) vs. likely #2 Michigan (Q1A)

#3 Iowa State
(1) vs. #67 Arizona State (Q2) or #48 Baylor (Q1)
(2) vs. #15 Texas Tech (Q1A)
(3) vs. likely #3 Arizona (Q1A)

#3 Nebraska
(1) vs. likely #10 Purdue (Q1A) or #37 Indiana (Q1)
(2) vs. likely #11 Michigan State (Q1A) or #34 UCLA (Q1)

#3 Purdue
(1) vs. #37 Indiana (Q1), #70 Northwestern (Q2) or #131 Penn State (Q3)
(2) vs. #12 Nebraska (Q1A)
(3) vs. likely #11 Michigan State (Q1A) or #34 UCLA (Q1)

#3 Alabama
(1) vs. #31 Georgia (Q1), #41 Texas (Q1) or #92 Ole Miss (Q2)
(2) vs. #18 Arkansas (Q1A) or #43 Texas A&M (Q1)


So, I think this would be your rooting guide for a dream scenario of conference tournament results for our Illini...

SEC Tournament
- I'm not sure if UConn can reclaim its #1 seed from Florida, but we obviously want Missouri to win as many games as possible for our own separate reasons, and I think it could knock UF back down to #2 seed territory (and therefore out of our path...) if they lost to Missouri on Friday morning. Mizzou would have to beat either Kentucky or LSU first, so that's hardly a done deal anyway.
- Not sure this one matters that much to us if you assume we are safely ahead of Alabama (the last #3 seed right now), but it wouldn't hurt for them to go down on Friday to (probably) Georgia or at least on Saturday to Arkansas. They'd probably remain in the top 25 of the NET (and therefore a Quad 1A loss) regardless.

Big East Tournament
- I also don't think this matters much unless we think UConn could sneak back up to a #1 seed. It would probably also require Florida losing early (see above) and no other #2 seeds going on a tear, but I guess in general we should want UConn to win this conference tournament in hopes of them being a #1 seed? You could also look at it that if UConn picked up a bad early loss and we made it to Sunday, we could even pass them in the #2 pecking order. This one probably isn't a huge deal either way.

Big XII Tournament
- In general, we want chaos.
- Definitely root for Iowa State to lose, as they're currently the top #3 seed and right on our tails as the last #2 seed. It would be great if they went down on Wednesday, but we at LEAST need them to lose to Texas Tech. If we lost on Friday and ISU made a run to their semifinals, we are daring the Committee to switch us, IMO.
- I doubt Kansas can catch us at this point, but why even give the Committee the chance to overrate a Blue Blood?? With that said, if KU does win its first game, we probably also want them to beat Houston.
- Speaking of Houston, it would also be great to see West Virginia or (more likely) BYU knock them off.

Big Ten Tournament
- This one is, needless to say, pretty huge!
- This is more of a "icing on the cake" thing, but it would be good if USC could find some way to get back into the top 75, giving us another Quad 1 win. I'll definitely be rooting for them vs. Washington on Wednesday!
- I personally think we should be more concerned about Nebraska than many here are. They've quietly moved JUST behind us in the Bracket Matrix, and things get really murky if we lose to Wisconsin (our 8th loss) and they make it to Sunday without a 6th loss, picking up two Quad 1 wins on the way (at which point, they would pass us). They very well could steal our St. Louis spot in such a scenario. It would be great for us if Purdue took them down, as I don't think the Boilers will pass us at this point.
- It would also be great for MSU to go down to UCLA on Friday. Not much more commentary needed, but in general we emerge as huge winners if anybody other than Nebraska or MSU are playing on Saturday on the bottom half of the bracket!
- This one is a bit more of a wild card, but it would be AWESOME if Iowa carried some momentum combined with frustration from their pretty good play and close losses lately, and then went on a tear. If they beat Oregon/Maryland, Ohio State and then somehow took down Michigan, this would be such a dream scenario for us. For one, Michigan would be out of the way if we beat Wisconsin, and the Wolverines really are a tough matchup for us. Second, Iowa would probably be pretty darn worn out by the time they would potentially play us on Saturday. Third, the computers still love Iowa, and they would be a Quad 1A win on a neutral court, and yet I think we match up pretty well with them.

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Piotyr said:

Quick look at how set the tourney field is as of right now:

There are 31 auto bids. 22 of those are from conferences where no team is in at-large contention:
AE (UMBC)
American (Tulsa)
ASun (Queens)
Big Sky (Montana State)
Big South (High Point)
Big West (Hawaii)
CAA (Hofstra)
CUSA (Liberty)
Horizon (Wright State)
Ivy (Yale)
MAAC (Merrimack)
MEAC (Howard)
MVC (Northern Iowa)
NEC (LIU)
OVC (Tennessee State)
Patriot (Lehigh)
SoCon (ETSU)
Southland (McNeese)
Summit (North Dakota State)
Sun Belt (Troy)
SWAC (Bethune-Cookman)
WAC (Utah Valley)

That leaves 9 leagues, with 37 at large bids available for those teams (so 46 total spots).

The locks (98% and higher) (37):
A10 (1): Saint Louis
ACC (6): Duke, Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, Miami FL, Clemson
B1G (9): Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, UCLA, Iowa, Ohio State
Big 12 (7): Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas, BYU, TCU
Big East (3): UConn, St. John's, Villanova
MWC (1): Utah State
SEC (8): Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas A&M
WCC (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary's

Should be in (>70%) (3):
ACC: NC State
MAC: Miami OH
SEC: Missouri

On the bubble (10%-70%) (11 teams for 6 spots):
A10: VCU
ACC: SMU, Stanford, Virginia Tech
B1G: Indiana
Big 12: UCF, Cincinnati
SEC: Texas, Oklahoma, Auburn
WCC: Santa Clara

Keep in mind, that if someone other than Miami wins the MAC, or someone other than Saint Louis wins the A10, or someone other than Utah State wins the MWC, or an unexpected team wins one of the other majors, that would reduce the amount of bubble spots. Given that, there are only a few spots up for grabs at this point.

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Fighter of the Nightman said:

Here are the #2 and #3 seeds (in order) on the current Bracket Matrix and the potential games they have lined up this week. Gives a decent idea of what chaos is possible. The rankings other than the bolded #2 and #3 seeds are current NET Rankings to give an idea of Quad ramifications. I'm stopping short of championship games just to keep it cleaner. I'm also discounting some of the crazier runs (e.g., #16 Utah beating #9 Cincinnati and then #8 UCF and then #1 Arizona all in a row) just to keep it more realistic.

Also, a reminder of the Quad classifications on a neutral court:
Quad 1A: #1-25
Other Quad 1: #26-50
Quad 2: #51-100
Quad 3: #101-200
Quad 4: #201+


#2 UConn
(1) vs. #91 Marquette (Q2) or #97 Xavier (Q2)
(2) vs. likely #33 Villanova (Q1)

#2 Houston
(1) vs. #58 West Virginia (Q2), #24 BYU (Q1) or #99 Kansas State (Q2)
(2) vs. #19 Kansas (Q1A) or #40 TCU (Q1)

#2 Michigan State
(1) vs. #34 UCLA (Q1), #74 Minnesota (Q2) or #143 Rutgers (Q3)

#2 Illinois
(1) vs. #26 Wisconsin (Q1), #61 Washington (Q2) or #78 USC (Q2)
(2) vs. likely #2 Michigan (Q1A)

#3 Iowa State
(1) vs. #67 Arizona State (Q2) or #48 Baylor (Q1)
(2) vs. #15 Texas Tech (Q1A)
(3) vs. likely #3 Arizona (Q1A)

#3 Nebraska
(1) vs. likely #10 Purdue (Q1A) or #37 Indiana (Q1)
(2) vs. likely #11 Michigan State (Q1A) or #34 UCLA (Q1)

#3 Purdue
(1) vs. #37 Indiana (Q1), #70 Northwestern (Q2) or #131 Penn State (Q3)
(2) vs. #12 Nebraska (Q1A)
(3) vs. likely #11 Michigan State (Q1A) or #34 UCLA (Q1)

#3 Alabama
(1) vs. #31 Georgia (Q1), #41 Texas (Q1) or #92 Ole Miss (Q2)
(2) vs. #18 Arkansas (Q1A) or #43 Texas A&M (Q1)


So, I think this would be your rooting guide for a dream scenario of conference tournament results for our Illini...

SEC Tournament
- I'm not sure if UConn can reclaim its #1 seed from Florida, but we obviously want Missouri to win as many games as possible for our own separate reasons, and I think it could knock UF back down to #2 seed territory (and therefore out of our path...) if they lost to Missouri on Friday morning. Mizzou would have to beat either Kentucky or LSU first, so that's hardly a done deal anyway.
- Not sure this one matters that much to us if you assume we are safely ahead of Alabama (the last #3 seed right now), but it wouldn't hurt for them to go down on Friday to (probably) Georgia or at least on Saturday to Arkansas. They'd probably remain in the top 25 of the NET (and therefore a Quad 1A loss) regardless.

Big East Tournament
- I also don't think this matters much unless we think UConn could sneak back up to a #1 seed. It would probably also require Florida losing early (see above) and no other #2 seeds going on a tear, but I guess in general we should want UConn to win this conference tournament in hopes of them being a #1 seed? You could also look at it that if UConn picked up a bad early loss and we made it to Sunday, we could even pass them in the #2 pecking order. This one probably isn't a huge deal either way.

Big XII Tournament
- In general, we want chaos.
- Definitely root for Iowa State to lose, as they're currently the top #3 seed and right on our tails as the last #2 seed. It would be great if they went down on Wednesday, but we at LEAST need them to lose to Texas Tech. If we lost on Friday and ISU made a run to their semifinals, we are daring the Committee to switch us, IMO.
- I doubt Kansas can catch us at this point, but why even give the Committee the chance to overrate a Blue Blood?? With that said, if KU does win its first game, we probably also want them to beat Houston.
- Speaking of Houston, it would also be great to see West Virginia or (more likely) BYU knock them off.

Big Ten Tournament
- This one is, needless to say, pretty huge!
- This is more of a "icing on the cake" thing, but it would be good if USC could find some way to get back into the top 75, giving us another Quad 1 win. I'll definitely be rooting for them vs. Washington on Wednesday!
- I personally think we should be more concerned about Nebraska than many here are. They've quietly moved JUST behind us in the Bracket Matrix, and things get really murky if we lose to Wisconsin (our 8th loss) and they make it to Sunday without a 6th loss, picking up two Quad 1 wins on the way (at which point, they would pass us). They very well could steal our St. Louis spot in such a scenario. It would be great for us if Purdue took them down, as I don't think the Boilers will pass us at this point.
- It would also be great for MSU to go down to UCLA on Friday. Not much more commentary needed, but in general we emerge as huge winners if anybody other than Nebraska or MSU are playing on Saturday on the bottom half of the bracket!
- This one is a bit more of a wild card, but it would be AWESOME if Iowa carried some momentum combined with frustration from their pretty good play and close losses lately, and then went on a tear. If they beat Oregon/Maryland, Ohio State and then somehow took down Michigan, this would be such a dream scenario for us. For one, Michigan would be out of the way if we beat Wisconsin, and the Wolverines really are a tough matchup for us. Second, Iowa would probably be pretty darn worn out by the time they would potentially play us on Saturday. Third, the computers still love Iowa, and they would be a Quad 1A win on a neutral court, and yet I think we match up pretty well with them.

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aaeismacgychel said:

Agreed on several counts. I do think there's a lot of room to fall to a 3 if we lose to Michigan, especially if Iowa State and Nebraska win a couple, but beating Wisconsin would put us pretty much on the precipice of a 2 as you expect some chaos to happen.

I'm with you on Iowa though. Historically in the BTT teams that won their first game have an advantage early against teams coming off a bye, and then the question is whether they can hold on in the 2nd Half. I like Iowa against Oregon or Maryland. I think they could get a fast start over OSU and hold on for dear life. And then Michigan. They made Michigan very uncomfortable in their game this year and Iowa sorta has that lull you to sleep type of game that can at times be effective against physical teams. Now do I think they actually beat Michigan if that's the matchup? No, I don't. But I could see them make Michigan sweat pretty hard late. Of course if they do that, I'd be scared to death as I'd rather not face a highly motivated Michigan the next game. But I certainly can see an Iowa run happening.

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Fighter of the Nightman said:

Agreed, on the latter point, I think we would want (in order)...

(1) Obviously ideally, Iowa beats Michigan any way possible.
(2) If Michigan wins, hopefully it is in several overtimes and they are tired.
(3) If Michigan wins in regulation, hopefully they beat Iowa comfortably and feel super confident, possibly even complacent.
(4) By far the worst scenario, Michigan ends up pulling away from Iowa for a somewhat sure win but experiences a bit of a "wakeup call" that zaps them back into urgency mode.

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Fighter of the Nightman said:

Here are the #2 and #3 seeds (in order) on the current Bracket Matrix and the potential games they have lined up this week. Gives a decent idea of what chaos is possible. The rankings other than the bolded #2 and #3 seeds are current NET Rankings to give an idea of Quad ramifications. I'm stopping short of championship games just to keep it cleaner. I'm also discounting some of the crazier runs (e.g., #16 Utah beating #9 Cincinnati and then #8 UCF and then #1 Arizona all in a row) just to keep it more realistic.

Also, a reminder of the Quad classifications on a neutral court:
Quad 1A: #1-25
Other Quad 1: #26-50
Quad 2: #51-100
Quad 3: #101-200
Quad 4: #201+


#2 UConn
(1) vs. #91 Marquette (Q2) or #97 Xavier (Q2)
(2) vs. likely #33 Villanova (Q1)

#2 Houston
(1) vs. #58 West Virginia (Q2), #24 BYU (Q1) or #99 Kansas State (Q2)
(2) vs. #19 Kansas (Q1A) or #40 TCU (Q1)

#2 Michigan State
(1) vs. #34 UCLA (Q1), #74 Minnesota (Q2) or #143 Rutgers (Q3)

#2 Illinois
(1) vs. #26 Wisconsin (Q1), #61 Washington (Q2) or #78 USC (Q2)
(2) vs. likely #2 Michigan (Q1A)

#3 Iowa State
(1) vs. #67 Arizona State (Q2) or #48 Baylor (Q1)
(2) vs. #15 Texas Tech (Q1A)
(3) vs. likely #3 Arizona (Q1A)

#3 Nebraska
(1) vs. likely #10 Purdue (Q1A) or #37 Indiana (Q1)
(2) vs. likely #11 Michigan State (Q1A) or #34 UCLA (Q1)

#3 Purdue
(1) vs. #37 Indiana (Q1), #70 Northwestern (Q2) or #131 Penn State (Q3)
(2) vs. #12 Nebraska (Q1A)
(3) vs. likely #11 Michigan State (Q1A) or #34 UCLA (Q1)

#3 Alabama
(1) vs. #31 Georgia (Q1), #41 Texas (Q1) or #92 Ole Miss (Q2)
(2) vs. #18 Arkansas (Q1A) or #43 Texas A&M (Q1)


So, I think this would be your rooting guide for a dream scenario of conference tournament results for our Illini...

SEC Tournament
- I'm not sure if UConn can reclaim its #1 seed from Florida, but we obviously want Missouri to win as many games as possible for our own separate reasons, and I think it could knock UF back down to #2 seed territory (and therefore out of our path...) if they lost to Missouri on Friday morning. Mizzou would have to beat either Kentucky or LSU first, so that's hardly a done deal anyway.
- Not sure this one matters that much to us if you assume we are safely ahead of Alabama (the last #3 seed right now), but it wouldn't hurt for them to go down on Friday to (probably) Georgia or at least on Saturday to Arkansas. They'd probably remain in the top 25 of the NET (and therefore a Quad 1A loss) regardless.

Big East Tournament
- I also don't think this matters much unless we think UConn could sneak back up to a #1 seed. It would probably also require Florida losing early (see above) and no other #2 seeds going on a tear, but I guess in general we should want UConn to win this conference tournament in hopes of them being a #1 seed? You could also look at it that if UConn picked up a bad early loss and we made it to Sunday, we could even pass them in the #2 pecking order. This one probably isn't a huge deal either way.

Big XII Tournament
- In general, we want chaos.
- Definitely root for Iowa State to lose, as they're currently the top #3 seed and right on our tails as the last #2 seed. It would be great if they went down on Wednesday, but we at LEAST need them to lose to Texas Tech. If we lost on Friday and ISU made a run to their semifinals, we are daring the Committee to switch us, IMO.
- I doubt Kansas can catch us at this point, but why even give the Committee the chance to overrate a Blue Blood?? With that said, if KU does win its first game, we probably also want them to beat Houston.
- Speaking of Houston, it would also be great to see West Virginia or (more likely) BYU knock them off.

Big Ten Tournament
- This one is, needless to say, pretty huge!
- This is more of a "icing on the cake" thing, but it would be good if USC could find some way to get back into the top 75, giving us another Quad 1 win. I'll definitely be rooting for them vs. Washington on Wednesday!
- I personally think we should be more concerned about Nebraska than many here are. They've quietly moved JUST behind us in the Bracket Matrix, and things get really murky if we lose to Wisconsin (our 8th loss) and they make it to Sunday without a 6th loss, picking up two Quad 1 wins on the way (at which point, they would pass us). They very well could steal our St. Louis spot in such a scenario. It would be great for us if Purdue took them down, as I don't think the Boilers will pass us at this point.
- It would also be great for MSU to go down to UCLA on Friday. Not much more commentary needed, but in general we emerge as huge winners if anybody other than Nebraska or MSU are playing on Saturday on the bottom half of the bracket!
- This one is a bit more of a wild card, but it would be AWESOME if Iowa carried some momentum combined with frustration from their pretty good play and close losses lately, and then went on a tear. If they beat Oregon/Maryland, Ohio State and then somehow took down Michigan, this would be such a dream scenario for us. For one, Michigan would be out of the way if we beat Wisconsin, and the Wolverines really are a tough matchup for us. Second, Iowa would probably be pretty darn worn out by the time they would potentially play us on Saturday. Third, the computers still love Iowa, and they would be a Quad 1A win on a neutral court, and yet I think we match up pretty well with them.

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Fighter of the Nightman said:

Here are the #2 and #3 seeds (in order) on the current Bracket Matrix and the potential games they have lined up this week. Gives a decent idea of what chaos is possible. The rankings other than the bolded #2 and #3 seeds are current NET Rankings to give an idea of Quad ramifications. I'm stopping short of championship games just to keep it cleaner. I'm also discounting some of the crazier runs (e.g., #16 Utah beating #9 Cincinnati and then #8 UCF and then #1 Arizona all in a row) just to keep it more realistic.

Also, a reminder of the Quad classifications on a neutral court:
Quad 1A: #1-25
Other Quad 1: #26-50
Quad 2: #51-100
Quad 3: #101-200
Quad 4: #201+


#2 UConn
(1) vs. #91 Marquette (Q2) or #97 Xavier (Q2)
(2) vs. likely #33 Villanova (Q1)

#2 Houston
(1) vs. #58 West Virginia (Q2), #24 BYU (Q1) or #99 Kansas State (Q2)
(2) vs. #19 Kansas (Q1A) or #40 TCU (Q1)

#2 Michigan State
(1) vs. #34 UCLA (Q1), #74 Minnesota (Q2) or #143 Rutgers (Q3)

#2 Illinois
(1) vs. #26 Wisconsin (Q1), #61 Washington (Q2) or #78 USC (Q2)
(2) vs. likely #2 Michigan (Q1A)

#3 Iowa State
(1) vs. #67 Arizona State (Q2) or #48 Baylor (Q1)
(2) vs. #15 Texas Tech (Q1A)
(3) vs. likely #3 Arizona (Q1A)

#3 Nebraska
(1) vs. likely #10 Purdue (Q1A) or #37 Indiana (Q1)
(2) vs. likely #11 Michigan State (Q1A) or #34 UCLA (Q1)

#3 Purdue
(1) vs. #37 Indiana (Q1), #70 Northwestern (Q2) or #131 Penn State (Q3)
(2) vs. #12 Nebraska (Q1A)
(3) vs. likely #11 Michigan State (Q1A) or #34 UCLA (Q1)

#3 Alabama
(1) vs. #31 Georgia (Q1), #41 Texas (Q1) or #92 Ole Miss (Q2)
(2) vs. #18 Arkansas (Q1A) or #43 Texas A&M (Q1)


So, I think this would be your rooting guide for a dream scenario of conference tournament results for our Illini...

SEC Tournament
- I'm not sure if UConn can reclaim its #1 seed from Florida, but we obviously want Missouri to win as many games as possible for our own separate reasons, and I think it could knock UF back down to #2 seed territory (and therefore out of our path...) if they lost to Missouri on Friday morning. Mizzou would have to beat either Kentucky or LSU first, so that's hardly a done deal anyway.
- Not sure this one matters that much to us if you assume we are safely ahead of Alabama (the last #3 seed right now), but it wouldn't hurt for them to go down on Friday to (probably) Georgia or at least on Saturday to Arkansas. They'd probably remain in the top 25 of the NET (and therefore a Quad 1A loss) regardless.

Big East Tournament
- I also don't think this matters much unless we think UConn could sneak back up to a #1 seed. It would probably also require Florida losing early (see above) and no other #2 seeds going on a tear, but I guess in general we should want UConn to win this conference tournament in hopes of them being a #1 seed? You could also look at it that if UConn picked up a bad early loss and we made it to Sunday, we could even pass them in the #2 pecking order. This one probably isn't a huge deal either way.

Big XII Tournament
- In general, we want chaos.
- Definitely root for Iowa State to lose, as they're currently the top #3 seed and right on our tails as the last #2 seed. It would be great if they went down on Wednesday, but we at LEAST need them to lose to Texas Tech. If we lost on Friday and ISU made a run to their semifinals, we are daring the Committee to switch us, IMO.
- I doubt Kansas can catch us at this point, but why even give the Committee the chance to overrate a Blue Blood?? With that said, if KU does win its first game, we probably also want them to beat Houston.
- Speaking of Houston, it would also be great to see West Virginia or (more likely) BYU knock them off.

Big Ten Tournament
- This one is, needless to say, pretty huge!
- This is more of a "icing on the cake" thing, but it would be good if USC could find some way to get back into the top 75, giving us another Quad 1 win. I'll definitely be rooting for them vs. Washington on Wednesday!
- I personally think we should be more concerned about Nebraska than many here are. They've quietly moved JUST behind us in the Bracket Matrix, and things get really murky if we lose to Wisconsin (our 8th loss) and they make it to Sunday without a 6th loss, picking up two Quad 1 wins on the way (at which point, they would pass us). They very well could steal our St. Louis spot in such a scenario. It would be great for us if Purdue took them down, as I don't think the Boilers will pass us at this point.
- It would also be great for MSU to go down to UCLA on Friday. Not much more commentary needed, but in general we emerge as huge winners if anybody other than Nebraska or MSU are playing on Saturday on the bottom half of the bracket!
- This one is a bit more of a wild card, but it would be AWESOME if Iowa carried some momentum combined with frustration from their pretty good play and close losses lately, and then went on a tear. If they beat Oregon/Maryland, Ohio State and then somehow took down Michigan, this would be such a dream scenario for us. For one, Michigan would be out of the way if we beat Wisconsin, and the Wolverines really are a tough matchup for us. Second, Iowa would probably be pretty darn worn out by the time they would potentially play us on Saturday. Third, the computers still love Iowa, and they would be a Quad 1A win on a neutral court, and yet I think we match up pretty well with them.

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RabidDawgClassic said:

Last year was as chalky as chalk tournaments have ever been with all four #1s making the Final Four and three 2s and one 3 making the elite eight. There were few significant upsets throughout the tourney with only 10 seed Arkansas advancing to the Sweet 16.

Now… the question is, was that a one year anomaly or a by-product of the Portal/NIL era? Are all the former good mid-major players now at P5 programs, reducing the potential for mid-major upsets? Are the top teams nearly unbeatable because they acquired the best collection of talent? Should be interesting to see if we’re establishing a trend of if last year was a one-off.

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RabidDawgClassic said:

Last year was as chalky as chalk tournaments have ever been with all four #1s making the Final Four and three 2s and one 3 making the elite eight. There were few significant upsets throughout the tourney with only 10 seed Arkansas advancing to the Sweet 16.

Now… the question is, was that a one year anomaly or a by-product of the Portal/NIL era? Are all the former good mid-major players now at P5 programs, reducing the potential for mid-major upsets? Are the top teams nearly unbeatable because they acquired the best collection of talent? Should be interesting to see if we’re establishing a trend of if last year was a one-off.

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aaeismacgychel said:

Agreed on several counts. I do think there's a lot of room to fall to a 3 if we lose to Michigan, especially if Iowa State and Nebraska win a couple, but beating Wisconsin would put us pretty much on the precipice of a 2 as you expect some chaos to happen.

I'm with you on Iowa though. Historically in the BTT teams that won their first game have an advantage early against teams coming off a bye, and then the question is whether they can hold on in the 2nd Half. I like Iowa against Oregon or Maryland. I think they could get a fast start over OSU and hold on for dear life. And then Michigan. They made Michigan very uncomfortable in their game this year and Iowa sorta has that lull you to sleep type of game that can at times be effective against physical teams. Now do I think they actually beat Michigan if that's the matchup? No, I don't. But I could see them make Michigan sweat pretty hard late. Of course if they do that, I'd be scared to death as I'd rather not face a highly motivated Michigan the next game. But I certainly can see an Iowa run happening.

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thefalcon5 said:

I still believe heavily in this team. FF caliber.

We also are extremely metric dependent. Or maybe they aren’t as segregated as it seems. I personally don’t think I’ve watched a top 5 team (which we are) over the past 30 days, according to torvik.

Our scheduling couldn’t possibly have been better. Not saying we’d be a “weak” 2 seed but man it sure feels like we aren’t one. Again maybe recency bias and I’m happy this team is in the position it is but woof with some of these recent performances.


And for fun, Wisconsin is 7th in that same time frame.

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Piotyr said:

I think this is largely due to the negative vibes in this forum overall. This is a team with 7 losses, 4 of which were coinflip games, one where they shot so low on free throws it's an obvious outlier, one where they couldn't hit the broad side of a barn with a shot and still were in it with 2 minutes left, and one where they didn't bring a great effort against the #1 team.

Meanwhile, they've won the most Q1A games of anyone, don't have a bad loss, and have beaten multiple tournament at large teams by 20+. Every metric you look at has this team in the top 5 or 6, they have the most efficient offense in history and their KenPom rating of 32.67 is identical to the rating of the 2005 team. There's just multiple elite teams this year, and not bringing their best against Michigan really left a sour taste for a week, especially after blowing a lead against UCLA in a game they were just dominating for 10 minutes. It's that 10 day stretch that just turned so many detractors into overdrive that it's borderline embarrassing.

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Piotyr said:

I think this is largely due to the negative vibes in this forum overall. This is a team with 7 losses, 4 of which were coinflip games, one where they shot so low on free throws it's an obvious outlier, one where they couldn't hit the broad side of a barn with a shot and still were in it with 2 minutes left, and one where they didn't bring a great effort against the #1 team.

Meanwhile, they've won the most Q1A games of anyone, don't have a bad loss, and have beaten multiple tournament at large teams by 20+. Every metric you look at has this team in the top 5 or 6, they have the most efficient offense in history and their KenPom rating of 32.67 is identical to the rating of the 2005 team. There's just multiple elite teams this year, and not bringing their best against Michigan really left a sour taste for a week, especially after blowing a lead against UCLA in a game they were just dominating for 10 minutes. It's that 10 day stretch that just turned so many detractors into overdrive that it's borderline embarrassing.

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Altuve27 said:

I don’t have the patience to type all that. I think our scenario is probably this: Beat Wisconsin Friday and we are a 2 seed. Lose Friday and it’s very likely that we are a 3 seed.

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AssemblyHallForever said:

Winning Friday is paramount. If we lose on Saturday to Michigan, it necessarily not a bad thing as it will give us another day of rest. We desperately need it. We aren’t getting a 1 seed so winning the conference tourney will not help us. If we are a 2, we will be in STL in the West Region. I would love to beat Michigan but I would rather beat them in the Final Four

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Scoregasm said:

I hope being in the west means we get Arizona as our 1 seed and not Duke.

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OrangeBlue98 said:

This is what I’m worried about. To be clear, I do want Illinois to always win. But if there was EVER a time where I wouldn’t be overly upset with not winning as long as it didn’t hurt Illinois, a potential Saturday game would be it.

This team just feels fatigued right now. Not a huge surprise, as it’s a team that hasn’t played a deep bench and has two freshman playing major minutes. It’s the same type of logic that marathoners use when they “taper”.
Just feels like extra rest and recovery would be more beneficial for a NCAA tournament run. But, it’s competition and I know these guys want to win everything they can.

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