Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread

#201      
skyIdub
Did we move on from 1980’s recruiting already?

1984 Illinois Loyalty was 9 guys in a garage outside of Monticello arguing over Loren Tate articles and the latest issues of Hoop Scoop, Blue Chips, and Street and Smiths Basketball Yearbook…..while the wives and girlfriends had a Mary Kay party and made homemade cottage cheese from the neighbors cows milk.
 
#202      
Fly Illini Fly!
Last year, Kentucky was said to have the most expensive roster. They started the year at #8.

I'm not sure what those numbers are with USC -- but I like their team preseason a lot more than I liked KY last season (doesn't necessarily guarentee they'll be any better).

KY's roster always had the feeling of overpaying for a bunch of role players as opposed to true difference makers.
 
#203      
jamarvelous31
Emerson Bigguns said:
Sportsbooks don't either (about 15th best odds to win Natty)... They tend to be better at this than anyone.
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I'd say it's a data point, but a sportsbooks' goal is to get slightly above break even betting on any given bet.

The name recognition of the coach, players and conference is going to lead to inflated odds relative to where the book would place them than if they were forced to answer 'who is mostly likely to win'.
 
#204      
wc_illini
Emerson Bigguns said:
Sportsbooks don't either (about 15th best odds to win Natty)... They tend to be better at this than anyone.
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I'm guessing you're looking at Kalshi, but the "Yes" price is inflated for teams with a high spread. The "No" prices (which put USC ~25) are more in line with traditional books (which have them 20-25). Unfortunately you can't sort by "No" price.

As for the other teams being mentioned today, averaging Kalshi and other sportsbooks, UConn is #4, We are #5, MSU is #8, and Tennessee is #13.
 
#205      
wc_illini
jamarvelous31 said:
I'd say it's a data point, but a sportsbooks' goal is to get slightly above break even betting on any given bet.

The name recognition of the coach, players and conference is going to lead to inflated odds relative to where the book would place them than if they were forced to answer 'who is mostly likely to win'.
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That's all true, but I would expect those effects to be much stronger for teams with recent success or very strong brand/popularity. I don't think USC basketball would benefit a whole lot from that. Regardless, as I just posted, they're more like #25 at Kalshi based on the more reliable "No" price.

Books also inflate odds (reduce payouts) for long shots in general since more dumb money is thrown blindly at those, but that by itself wouldn't re-order teams, just distort the relative chances of long shots compared to the favorites.
 
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#207      
ImGonnaBeILL
NarrowJ said:
CBS & ESPN both have them at #14 in the way-too-early rankings... not top 10, but they're not being ignored by any means.

And I am joining you on the opposite side of the fence with them. They have a couple decent transfer guards to play alongside Rice, but the frontcourt is Cofie, Reibe and 3 talented but young freshmen. Also, Rice has only played more than 8 games in a season once and he's been around since 2022. Then you have the coaching of Eric Musselman that hasn't lived up to the hype and I can easily see them as a bubble team this year.
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They'll again have more wins than fans in the arena.

Some coaches just throw together a bunch of individual players. Other coaches build actual teams.
 
#209      
the juiceman cometh
Calvin said:
Guy says NIL and the portal have brought equality?? I suppose if you're Kentucky you think that. Pay for play only works to equalize things though if you've got money, or exceptional talent evaluation and development. It's more like Animal Farm equality, where everyone is equal, just some are more equal than others.
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Nobody thinks it's literally equal. Just more equal.

While NIL hasn't made the talent distribution flat, it has made it flatt-er. UK's 2013 class signed 6 of the top 14 recruits, according to 247. Nobody is doing anything like that the NIL era.
 
#211      
jamarvelous31
wc_illini said:
That's all true, but I would expect those effects to be much stronger for teams with recent success or very strong brand/popularity. I don't think USC basketball would benefit a whole lot from that. Regardless, as I just posted, they're more like #25 at Kalshi based on the more reliable "No" price.

Books also inflate odds (reduce payouts) for long shots in general since more dumb money is thrown blindly at those, but that by itself wouldn't re-order teams, just distort the relative chances of long shots compared to the favorites.
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Fair. Id also add there is an opportunity for regional bias pushing them up the list given the size of the city and state they're in..
 
#212      
ChiefGritty
Calvin said:
Guy says NIL and the portal have brought equality?? I suppose if you're Kentucky you think that. Pay for play only works to equalize things though if you've got money, or exceptional talent evaluation and development. It's more like Animal Farm equality, where everyone is equal, just some are more equal than others.
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It has created greater parity between the blue bloods and the upper middle class like us.

It has opened a Grand Canyon-sized chasm between the rank-and-file of the remaining major conferences and the rank and file what were once highly competitive mid-major leagues though. All of their HS scouting wins move up for more money in a year or two now.

What looks like growth in college sports is primarily feasting on the corpses of those left behind. This ravenous beast will be chewing more of its own tail than WSU and OSU over the next few years, I promise you.
 
#213      
Emerson Bigguns
ChiefGritty said:
It has created greater parity between the blue bloods and the upper middle class like us.

It has opened a Grand Canyon-sized chasm between the rank-and-file of the remaining major conferences and the rank and file what were once highly competitive mid-major leagues though. All of their HS scouting wins move up for more money in a year or two now.

What looks like growth in college sports is primarily feasting on the corpses of those left behind. This ravenous beast will be chewing more of its own tail than WSU and OSU over the next few years, I promise you.
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That's why I think the US Government has to be part of the solution. Unlimited immediate transfers are making every mid-major a relegation/developmental league. If the government codifies the rules by applying exemptions to inter-state commerce laws regarding "amateur" athletics, perhaps some of that can be eased. As long as student-athletes are operating as essentially independent contractors, nothing can change. The NCAA is powerless as it stands.
 
#215      
the juiceman cometh
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
Duke. (especially that 2024 team)
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Very good class but still not on the same level. 2-top 10 recruits, compared to 5(!) in that UK 2013 class. And in the post NIL world, the transfer portal is a much bigger part of the overall talent pool for recruiting than it was in 2013, and while they had some good transfers, they didn't have any of the top guys. Their highest ranked transfer was Sion James at #61. That Duke class comes nowhere near the ability of blue bloods to consolidate the top talent pre-NIL.
 
#218      
JKR
audie said:
Let's not forget two 1970 Parade All-Americans who didn't quite pan out at Illinois: Billy Morris and Kris Berymon. I watched them play for the Freshman team (yes, there used to be freshman games before the varsity games!) and thought they were going to be superstars.
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Put those two together with the two Nicks (Conner and Weatherspoon) and we'd have had a nice team. Unfortunately, they were better on the court than in the classroom.
 
#221      
illiniguy24
Bucktown said:
Based on those comments about Morillo's shooting, he seems more like a back up for Andrej than a replacement for Ben.
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here we go batman GIF
 
#222      
ManlyLibrarian
skyIdub said:
Did we move on from 1980’s recruiting already?

1984 Illinois Loyalty was 9 guys in a garage outside of Monticello arguing over Loren Tate articles and the latest issues of Hoop Scoop, Blue Chips, and Street and Smiths Basketball Yearbook…..while the wives and girlfriends had a Mary Kay party and made homemade cottage cheese from the neighbors cows milk.
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Can confirm.
 
#224      
STL Illini
Emerson Bigguns said:
That's why I think the US Government has to be part of the solution. Unlimited immediate transfers are making every mid-major a relegation/developmental league. If the government codifies the rules by applying exemptions to inter-state commerce laws regarding "amateur" athletics, perhaps some of that can be eased. As long as student-athletes are operating as essentially independent contractors, nothing can change. The NCAA is powerless as it stands.
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Living in STL and a frequent listener to 101.1
Sports radio here. (Side note, Illinois’ own Carey Davis has an afternoon show and is still very pro Illinois in the heart of Miznoz country).
I’ve heard Missouri Senator Eric Schmitt interviewed a handful of times. He’s very active in DC in an attempt to have legislation passed to better college athletics.
Remains to be seen what the outcome might be, but he at least has a solid perspective.
(One that would align with the majority of opinions expressed in these threads)
Hoping that he can make headway because most of us would agree that at this rate, this is the beginning of the end of all we love about college athletics.
 
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