He's going pro. They are going to add one more but Kylan and the staff want to move forward.
NBA Draft
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
But $5 million isn't an absurd number for Andrej, plus he has the extra 5-for-5 year, PLUS the opportunity to play himself into the first round on a team that features him more in a dramatically weaker draft class.
The chances he has an 8-9 figure NBA free agent contract in his future and the chances his draft stock improves in one (or two) years aren't independent variables, they correlate with one another.
Which isn't to say it's not POSSIBLE he loses out in the aggregate by returning to school rather than taking a second round multi-year guarantee, but the median expected value is definitely higher.
If he's optimizing for money, he comes back.
What a second round guarantee would optimize for is career NBA games played, and perhaps just as importantly to him and his family it pushes his chances of Peja and Andrej Stojakovic joining the list of fathers and sons to play in the NBA to 100%.
It's not a secret the NBA has been the narrow-minded goal of Andrej and his family, which is true of every player but especially in his case with the sophistication of what that means and how to get there. This is a guy who transferred from one arch rival to another, the Stojakovic's are not romantic people about college basketball. It's about what's best for Andrej, and Andrej did not get what he came for last year because of Wagler.
It's all understandable. But the reality is we're his best offer, and they'll be making a mistake not to take it.
One of my favorite stories about this scene is that the actor who plays Jimmy said he was so focused on making every shot that he didn't even listen to what Gene Hackman was saying. When they did the first take, he made 12 consecutive shots.
I agree with a lot of what you're saying. But optimizing for money isn't the same as taking the highest expected value (and certainly not the highest median). There's diminishing marginal utility, and the risk of serious injury or regression means returning has a much lower floor than a guaranteed 2-3 year contract, and might mean he never realizes his dream of being in the NBA.
Plus there are non-monetary considerations. He seems to enjoy the team, but does he enjoy the grind of classes? Does he think he could improve more if he could focus on bball?
Is this really true for Yaxel?
If Yaxel stays in he was probably getting picked in the 20s. Let's say #25 for the sake of argument. That pick got 4 yrs/$15 million. He's currently around the tail end of the lottery in mock drafts, at like #14. That pick got 4 yrs/$23 million in last year's draft. I've seen reports that Yaxel got $3 million to play for Michigan. So essentially over a 5-year span staying would net him $26 million.
If he'd stayed in the draft and gotten that $4yr/$15 million deal in the 5th year of that same time span he'd be hitting free agency before that 5th year. If he gets even $12 million for that year on the FA market, he's coming out ahead in the scenario where he went a year earlier. Look at NBA salaries. It's not hard to imagine him getting double that if he does well. Maybe even triple that.
I think people overvalue the difference between getting drafted higher vs getting an extra year of an NBA career. There's a certain point where improving draft stock makes sense finanically, but going from late first round to late lottery is not that point.
This is exactly it. Fears/Blackwell/other 2nd rounders have essentially zero reason to jump to the nba this year.
Anyone scared needs to think of it this way: they are interviewing for a job. Why would anyone come out and say “I’m just here for the combine experience”. Of course they’re gonna say they are ten toes in on the NBA. I think the mere fact Andrej mentioned coming back as a possibility is all you need to know.
When watching that clip, it seemed to me that Andrej had a couple tells that indicated he was returning, JMHO. He kinda gave it away that he was saying what he needed to say.
NBA Draft Combine: Predicting stay-or-go decisions for Milan Momcilovic, Malachi Moreno, other draft hopefuls
Following player interviews at the NBA Draft Combine in Chicago, here is insight on and predictions for each major stay-or-go decision.
www.cbssports.com
"I think I'm in a special situation where my option to go back to school is one of a kind," Stojakovic said, via Illini Inquirer's Jeremy Werner. "Not many people in this Combine have the option to go back to a Final Four team with most of the guys returning. … I'm very thankful for the situation I'm in because going back to school is also a really, really good option for me."
The article goes on to predict Andrej comes back. One data point, but a good one.
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ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Not when he can make $10 million in college over his next two seasons with 5-for-5. That dramatically changes the financial incentives.
For one thing I think he's jumped more than 25 to 14. Saw him at 10 in CBS' latest mock. And there was second round risk last year.
For two, the rookie scale escalates every year, so even at the same pick you get a little bit more delaying a year. The same mechanics apply to free agency. (All of this is more or less just accounting for inflation of course, but that door leads toward overcomplicating this).
For three, hitting free agency a year later offers the opportunity to be a more proven player when you get there. The reason Ayo is on a wildly team-friendly 3 yr/21M deal is because he hit RFA after his second season before he took a leap in his third season.
For four, Yaxel is now a much more marketable player which has endorsement benefits. That wasn't a guarantee returning to school, but it was a possibility that being a lightly-used Pelican did not offer.
The basic math of "the last year of an NBA career is typically worth more than the first" isn't wrong. Nor is the fact of free agency being the real payday that you need to serve out your rookie deal to access whenever you enter. But you're drawing a lot of suppositions from there that don't really follow.
Is @FI_890526 an alien that only I can see?
Good thing he is an Illinois player and not a prospective Illinois player.
5 for 5 will not be retroactive for this year's seniors.
He is such a great spokesperson for Illinois. Really all of the current pros are, but Kylan speaks with such maturity and intelligence.
In the case of a serious injury, he'd make half that AND never realize his dream of being in the NBA.
In the case of regression, he might roughly break even financially but would miss out on that dream.
Edit: I'm not speculating on what he will or should do, just acknowledging the risks of turning down an offer to go to the NBA now.
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A great ambassador for the program.
Like every time he mentioned illinois or his teammates his smile got so big his face almost split in half.
This is also assuming ofcourse the “promise” is a 100% locked down guarantee - there is a risk a team doesn’t follow through on that promise.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Which is roughly the same as the two year guarantee (with a third year team option) that the second round exception deal grants him.
THAT'S what really matters here. What the NBA can guarantee him that Illinois cannot is to be minted for life as "An NBA Player" alongside his father.
I just hope he doesn't make a foolish financial decision that massively screws our golden opportunity in order to lock in something he'll have a great chance to achieve regardless and very possibly a much better chance next year.
The "good" news here is that I don't really see why a team would give Andrej the multi-year guarantee he's seeking as a fringe second round guy.
Yeah, that definitely depends on what he's hearing. My understanding is that most 2nd round exception contracts are 3yrs (+ team option on 4th), which would put the max guaranteed amount somewhere around $7.5mil. If he's hearing $5m or less, then I agree it's all about guaranteeing the dream
Never underestimate Vivek's ability to do stupid things.
Sentiment around Andrej has not changed outside of fan angst.
RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
“Being able to learn from Kyrie…”
Just don’t subscribe to his planetary geography course.
Battle89
- Cary-Grove, the better Trojan team
Good discussion, on both sides. Haven't seen much about present value though.Not when he can make $10 million in college over his next two seasons with 5-for-5. That dramatically changes the financial incentives.
For one thing I think he's jumped more than 25 to 14. Saw him at 10 in CBS' latest mock. And there was second round risk last year.
For two, the rookie scale escalates every year, so even at the same pick you get a little bit more delaying a year. The same mechanics apply to free agency. (All of this is more or less just accounting for inflation of course, but that door leads toward overcomplicating this).
For three, hitting free agency a year later offers the opportunity to be a more proven player when you get there. The reason Ayo is on a wildly team-friendly 3 yr/21M deal is because he hit RFA after his second season before he took a leap in his third season.
For four, Yaxel is now a much more marketable player which has endorsement benefits. That wasn't a guarantee returning to school, but it was a possibility that being a lightly-used Pelican did not offer.
The basic math of "the last year of an NBA career is typically worth more than the first" isn't wrong. Nor is the fact of free agency being the real payday that you need to serve out your rookie deal to access whenever you enter. But you're drawing a lot of suppositions from there that don't really follow.
Is @FI_890526 an alien that only I can see?
Several million this year (and next?) can be worth more than some potential amount 4-5 years down the line. Especially in an endeavor where you could have a serious injury at any time and jeopardize future earnings.
As someone mentioned earlier this week, I think a key differentiator for AS is that he does not need the money. While all kids want to get to the NBA, most kids need to get there to change their life. AS and his family do not. So I think the allure of the league counts for a bit more with AS.
Edit to note that @wc_illini said much the same, sorry hadn't seen that yet.