This is a lot of 'ifs' and 'all it takes' to get drafted in the second round when it would be easier to improve your status in a year.
NBA Draft
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Didn’t you go through this exact thing when we were waiting on Drej’s commitment. Full circle moment.
hes getting old and being a senior doesnt help his draft stock theres no guarantee he will make nba if he doesnt improve. maybe he thinks hes a better nba guy and his shot has not developed at all in college.
if an nba 2nd round prospect can get the exception 3-4 yr deal you take it and run. the long term security and hitting fa faster is how you become rich quick.
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What do you expect him to say? He wants to be drafted. Until he gets feedback on where he stacks he can’t make a decision to stay or go.
Not sure at my age if I can remember that date....but it is my birthday.
As for AS, after watching some of the NBA playoff games, it seems to be a glaring requirement for every player on the floor to be a dependable 3 pt. threat at least at 33% or higher...even if you are 7'4". And maybe Morez made the best decision moving to Michigan (and there is no one who holds their athletic dept. in lower regard than I do) where he was allowed to shoot an occasional 3 when open. He shot .343 from the arc last season (12/35) without gunning away but was able to prove he could make shots from the arc, an opportunity he felt would be denied by BU. That makes me wonder why AS has a tough decision. Come back and start working like TSJr. did and get better....25% is unacceptable for a guard in the NBA and every team has a defender that will silent his slash and finish game if he is not a three ball threat. If he wants it, it is there to be had...but not without putting in the work to get it.
Thanks Lville....but those nightmare scenarios are somewhat prevalent in our storied recruiting history....they just won't go away.
All I can say is IMHO, the next year or so for him will be lot more fulfilling and enjoyable in Champaign rather than on an NBA bench or G-League team...and likely financially more so.
It absolutely does because right now he isn't a 1st round draft pick and a borderline 2nd round pick where he can improve on that. Stirtz and Yaxel are better off for coming back for their senior year. Being a senior has nothing to do with it. Plenty of seniors get drafted.
And here we go with the 'if' stuff again. With NIL he WILL make more money in college than that if.
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Funny enough, was just thinking about that haha.
What’s your thoughts on Kylan at this point of the process? If the 5 for 5 passes obviously.
He's going pro. They are going to add one more but Kylan and the staff want to move forward.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
But $5 million isn't an absurd number for Andrej, plus he has the extra 5-for-5 year, PLUS the opportunity to play himself into the first round on a team that features him more in a dramatically weaker draft class.
The chances he has an 8-9 figure NBA free agent contract in his future and the chances his draft stock improves in one (or two) years aren't independent variables, they correlate with one another.
Which isn't to say it's not POSSIBLE he loses out in the aggregate by returning to school rather than taking a second round multi-year guarantee, but the median expected value is definitely higher.
If he's optimizing for money, he comes back.
What a second round guarantee would optimize for is career NBA games played, and perhaps just as importantly to him and his family it pushes his chances of Peja and Andrej Stojakovic joining the list of fathers and sons to play in the NBA to 100%.
It's not a secret the NBA has been the narrow-minded goal of Andrej and his family, which is true of every player but especially in his case with the sophistication of what that means and how to get there. This is a guy who transferred from one arch rival to another, the Stojakovic's are not romantic people about college basketball. It's about what's best for Andrej, and Andrej did not get what he came for last year because of Wagler.
It's all understandable. But the reality is we're his best offer, and they'll be making a mistake not to take it.
The wild card here that most aren’t talking about is Andrej already has generational wealth as a backup. If he has a bird in hand shot somehow at the NBA this year then he might take that shot where others would not take the risk because of the college money. Different times for differently family dynamics and wealth situations.
One of my favorite stories about this scene is that the actor who plays Jimmy said he was so focused on making every shot that he didn't even listen to what Gene Hackman was saying. When they did the first take, he made 12 consecutive shots.
Little under double 4.2 ish Id guess
Is it possible, Blackwell becomes a chance if Dre leaves?
I know pipe dreams, but the money and offensive control would be there.
I know pipe dreams, but the money and offensive control would be there.
That’d make it all the more awful if the seniors sue and win in court (if/when it passes).
I agree with a lot of what you're saying. But optimizing for money isn't the same as taking the highest expected value (and certainly not the highest median). There's diminishing marginal utility, and the risk of serious injury or regression means returning has a much lower floor than a guaranteed 2-3 year contract, and might mean he never realizes his dream of being in the NBA.
Plus there are non-monetary considerations. He seems to enjoy the team, but does he enjoy the grind of classes? Does he think he could improve more if he could focus on bball?
Is this really true for Yaxel?
If Yaxel stays in he was probably getting picked in the 20s. Let's say #25 for the sake of argument. That pick got 4 yrs/$15 million. He's currently around the tail end of the lottery in mock drafts, at like #14. That pick got 4 yrs/$23 million in last year's draft. I've seen reports that Yaxel got $3 million to play for Michigan. So essentially over a 5-year span staying would net him $26 million.
If he'd stayed in the draft and gotten that $4yr/$15 million deal in the 5th year of that same time span he'd be hitting free agency before that 5th year. If he gets even $12 million for that year on the FA market, he's coming out ahead in the scenario where he went a year earlier. Look at NBA salaries. It's not hard to imagine him getting double that if he does well. Maybe even triple that.
I think people overvalue the difference between getting drafted higher vs getting an extra year of an NBA career. There's a certain point where improving draft stock makes sense finanically, but going from late first round to late lottery is not that point.
Oh look, it’s the seemingly annual debate about should player X stay in the draft. 
Yes he was a projected late first round draft pick and could have stayed in the draft but decided to come back which turned out to be the right choice well for Michigan at least and is now a lottery pick.
Add to the fact that he became a better player, winner and teammate by playing on a great team.
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