Illini Basketball 2026-2027
/s? IL was ranked 17th preseason last year and will be <5th this year.
I trust Duke to underperform yearly, Scheyer is Calapari east. There was definitely tourney luck both in seeding, upsets and our team clicking/getting healthy at the end.
Honestly seems fitting given how many times IL has had bad tourney luck under Underwood... like facing a buzzsaw in UConn in the e8 & a criminally underseeded Loyola in r32 with 2 of our next best teams the last 5.
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Counterpoint - yes you can expect to win the natty and the Illini are going to do just that.
Wasn’t Houston really under seeded also or am I misremembering that?
Yeah, sort of. Kenpom had them 4th and they were a 2 seed, so that could be off just a bit. Iowa was 22nd so should have been a 6 seed but was a 9th seed.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Yes, #2 on KenPom and a 5 seed.
Getting #10 Loyola as an 8 seed and #2 Houston as a 5 seed back to back is just criminal.
I mean you're allowed to build up any expectations you want to. But consider this quote from Epictetus:
"Do not seek for things to happen the way you want them to; rather, wish that what happens happens the way it happens: then you will be happy."
I hope we can finally win a natty this year. I think we're in the mix, and I am thrilled to be the fan of a program that has done so many things right to be in this position. However, if my expectation become winning a national championship, or even making the Final Four or any other specfic result, I know I'm setting myself up for a possibility of being disappointed, even if the season is objectively good!
Of course it's probably not realistic, as a sports fan, to "wish that what happens happens the way it happens," that kind of goes against the whole practice of rooting for a specific team! But the principle that setting specific expectations sets you up for failure is pretty obvious. I try to think of things on a wider time horizon, and rather than specific results about general program health. Can we continue to recruit and produce all-conference players and NBA draft picks? Can we continue to make the Tournament with good seeding on an annual basis? Can we compete for conference titles consistently? If we're doing all those things, we're in the best possible position for the natty, whether it be this year or another year.
The Galloping Ghost
- Washington, DC
I feel you. I think you're being reasonable. I also think message boards are places to be unreasonable sometimes. Things are genuinely great for Illini athletics across the board right now. These are the good old days. Now is the time to dream big, be bold, and believe without a shadow of a doubt.
Not all offensive rebounding opportunities are equal though.
I dont have any statistics to back it up but just from the eye test, Illinois is far better on the offensive boards when the ball is moving and the defense is scrambling/rotating when the shot goes up. This often creating a free runner to the glass because defenders are out of position or miss a guy.
When the ball sticks and the defense is set when a shot goes up that offensive rebounding percentage drops significantly because the defense is in position to box out their man.
Now, Illinois is big and will still get some of those boards and weird bounces/long rebounds happen but I do think it is a much much lower offensive rebounding percentage and that bad shots without ball movement are often pretty similar results to turnovers like the poster says above.
I think he's talking about the 2022 Melendez Technical game where Houston was a 5 seed, but really high on the analytic rankings
Was thinking of 2021-22 team that faced Houston in the 2nd round.
I've been waiting this entire offseason for the "1 second weekend in 9 years" people to successfully migrate to "he just got lucky last year" (but I might have misread the original comment).
It is a matter of each person probably manages happiness differently.
Happiness = Reality - Expectations … for some.
For others… it’s dreaming that THIS is the year. That excitement until it’s taken away from us at some point in late March or early April is worth more happiness-wise than folks who temper/sober expectations preemptively.
OnlyOrange
- Belleville, IL
This past year was reasonable, but a few years back when we played them weren't they Kenpom #1 as a 5 seed? That's a pretty tough draw.
Think they also beat the #1 seed in the next game.
I think we can all admit that we did get lucky with the draws last year. Everything lined up right for a final four run.
Penn, VCU, Houston, and Iowa. Awesome first weekend draws, then Houston who Illinois was a nightmare matchup for with their size and Houstons defensive scheme, and then Iowa in the Elite 8. Hats off the Mccollum but they weren't big or talented enough to beat Illinois.
However on the flip side that is just part of March Madness runs and it flips some of the bad draws they had previously gotten.
2020: COVID cancelled tourney.
2021: Under seeded Loyola though still an embarrassing loss where Illinois clearly got out coached and outworked on the court.
2022: under seeded Houston. I do think the ceiling for this team was probably the sweet 16 though. Were lucky to survive Chattanooga.
2023: normal draw just lost.
2024: the only thing that prevented this team from going to a final four was drawing UConn in the same region imo. I think they go to the title game if they are on the opposite side of the bracket and beat Purdue if they draw them a third time.
2025: actually a pretty good draw with Kentucky as a beatable 3 seed. Just didn't get it done.
I think 2026 was kind of the combination of being talented(one of Brad's three best teams alongside 2021 and 2024) and everything lined up right this time.
PizzaHutParkingLot
- Vodice, Croatia
I do remember when the draw first came out, many people here were upset because we had to play Houston in Houston.
Just because we won, doesn’t make the task of winning that game any easier.
Houston was higher in Torvik (4th) than Florida (5th) going into the tournament last year, and we played them in Houston.... so I won't fall victim to "we got lucky". If we can beat Houston, we can beat Florida. Both were extremely good teams. Iowa was 22nd on Torvik and a 9 seed: a good team that was on an absolute heater coming into our matchup with them.
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Houston had 3 big weaknesses: they didn’t get to the foul line, they didn’t get to the rim, and they had a tendency to give up offensive rebounds.
None of those areas were particularly exploitable with Florida.
Haugh would have been a defensive nightmare for Mirk and Ben. We had major issues with Michigan front 3. The Haugh/Condon/Chinyelu trio’s rim pressure would’ve been a massive challenge. Keaton likely wins the battle of the guards. But I’m not sure we can contain the Florida frontline last year or frankly even this year. Need a big leap in defense from Mirk and the twins for us to contend come the latter weekends of the NCAAs.
Since I was 8 years old I believed that Chesty Potato Chips were the breakfast of Champions and were the food of choice by my beloved Illini hoopsters. Now, at age 79, I am beginning to suspect I was wrong....but maybe not?
Florida had some crazy weaknesses as well. Look at that 3 point shooting percentage and you see one of the biggest weaknesses of any of the top seeds.
Going into the tourney, Houston was in front of them in Torvik, one spot behind them in the polls, and then didn’t get beat by a 9 seed, and also Florida wasn’t playing in their hometown.
Make no mistake, Illinois earned that F4 appearance.
Last year’s offense did set a very high bar to replicate.
IMO, the two main reasons we were that successful was 1) not turning the ball over and 2) offensive rebounding.
Our 13.1 TOV per 100 possessions ranked 10th best in the nation (5th best in the P4). And our 39.2% OREB rate was the 3rd highest in the country.
We weren’t good in those areas; we were exceptional. Not only did we steal extra chances to score with OREBs, we also didn’t give those opportunities back with turnovers. Pair that with our skill, spacing, and firepower — you’re going to have an elite offense. It’s just inevitable.
…..
At numerous points last year, people would come here criticizing Tyler and our offense because they were displeased with our 3pt shooting. Either we missed too many, or the attempts were too many, whatever.
Except… in almost all those games, we would wind up scoring like 1.25 points per possession or more. How? Because of the offensive rebounding.
It’s the luxury we gave ourselves for doing it at such a high level — the shots didn’t NEED to fall to have a productive outing. We missed threes, but rebounded and scored on 2nd and 3rd opportunities. Yeah the 3-pointers were missed on the stat sheet… but on the POSSESSIONS, the ball found the hoop, which is the only thing that matters.
…..
Overall, I’d have less concern about our rebounding keeping its course. We literally brought back the entire frontcourt. It’s what they’re here to do, quite legitimately.
Retaining that lucrative turnover rate though… I’d have a little more questions about. Especially with having a brand new backcourt.
Wagler’s AST to TOV was 2.4, which is very good, and yes that’s who had the ball most of the time. But Boswell, as our two-guard, was also exceptional with a 2.7.
It just shows how big the guards are — both Vaaks and Coleman — in terms of X factors. If they can maintain our surgical approach, while not being erratic… it’ll take our offense to another level once again.
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