Illini Basketball 2026-2027
I don't know if we're calling CH a liar here, but he missed 2 or 3 games near the beginning of the 2023-24 season with a knee injury and then played the rest of the season with the bad knee.
Coleman Hawkins Continues Playing Through Pain in Illini’s NCAA Tournament Run - IlliniGuys.com
Illinois senior forward Coleman Hawkins says he’s more intensely monitoring an injury situation to his left leg that has hampered most of his 2023-24 season. Matt Stevens, IlliniGuys Staff Writer March 23, 2024 OMAHA, Neb. — During each of the three open locker room sessions of this NCAA...
illiniguys.com
Paid article, but the relevant quote is: "It felt like (Thursday) I was playing on one leg"
I’m not calling CH a liar. I’m saying despite playing hurt, he still played 31.5 minutes per game.I don't know if we're calling CH a liar here, but he missed 2 or 3 games near the beginning of the 2023-24 season with a knee injury and then played the rest of the season with the bad knee.
Coleman Hawkins Continues Playing Through Pain in Illini’s NCAA Tournament Run - IlliniGuys.com
Illinois senior forward Coleman Hawkins says he’s more intensely monitoring an injury situation to his left leg that has hampered most of his 2023-24 season. Matt Stevens, IlliniGuys Staff Writer March 23, 2024 OMAHA, Neb. — During each of the three open locker room sessions of this NCAA...
Paid article, but the relevant quote is: "It felt like (Thursday) I was playing on one leg"
Which means, playing hurt has less to do with your minutes than how much the team values you.
About the original point - Andrej not playing 30 minutes a night has more to do with him not being valuable enough to play that amount, than just being hurt.
We couldn’t play Kylan and Andrej together, because they were two subpar shooters. Tough decisions had to be made with different lineups.
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Yes, but are you tracking barber shops on the south side of Chicago?
Never said that he wasn't. I was just being more tongue in cheek that that is not his most prominent offensive ability.
Eh... 2 different guys with possibly 2 different injuries (or varying severity).
Boswell averaged 30.0 mpg and Andrej 26.3 so of course they played together. They were in the starting lineup together for 20+ games and according to on/off data our 3 most used lineups included both players. So I think you are wrong.
Do you have a stat on how many at the rim Keaton made?
Wagler’s 2 point percentage was legitimately, his only weakness (at least at the college level).
He did not lack courage, and would drive in undeterred…. just didn’t get enough of them to drop, percentage wise.
His FT rate however, was terrific.
He did not lack courage, and would drive in undeterred…. just didn’t get enough of them to drop, percentage wise.
His FT rate however, was terrific.
THIS is my point with Vaaks.
Keaton didn't make as many as you'd ideally hope, but he was able to get those looks thru his aggressiveness.
If Vaaks is able to get those looks, I think he makes more than Keaton considering: 1) his 2pt percentage was already higher last year. 2) we ALWAYS improve our transfer's 2pt percentage. 3) he's alot bigger, stronger, older than Keaton.
That's what would really elevate him to lottery pick status, IMO. In addition to getting a bit better defensively and on the glass (which I think will happen).
I will note, Boswell's improvement in this area was especially encouraging.
In 2024, he shot 41.5% from two on 3.9 attempts. The following year at Illinois, he shot 56.7% from two on 5.3 attempts (and last year 54% on 5.4 attempts).
.....
Also, KB's free throw rate of 12.3% was literally the worst on Arizona's roster. Even worse than the walk ons; literally the worst on the team.
At Illinois, it was 43.3% in 2025 and 41.5% in 2026. Both very good.
.....
For the comparison -- Vaaks at Providence shot 51.7% from two on 3.9 attempts. Vaaks's free throw rate at Providence was 29.5%.
I'm not sure what a leap necessarily looks like, but almost certain both those numbers will go up for him.
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It's different because Boswell came from one of the best teams in the country. Usually those guys can take those leaps, with a greater role.
Vaaks came from one of the worst power conference teams. Those guys tend to have their statistical leaps more capped, because we've already seen what they are in their highest usage roles (on a bad team, no less).
2 point percentage and free throw rate could increase, as those are efficiency metrics.
Not sure about 2 point attempts increasing. In a high usage role, on a bad team, we've already seen how that's probably not his game.
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Playing with an injury can limit your physical endurance. So, playing super high minutes might not be an option to begin with.
Also, different player's injuries are different. And different players deal with injuries in a different manner.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Big part of the of Vaaks’ low rim rate at Providence was a clogged lane. Playing in a 5 out offense should increase his rim rate here.
MLT’s shared the stats on one of the Werner podcasts, but rim rate is usually one of the stats that improves the most by incoming transfers.
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source? legitimately curious. i admit the following could be AI slop but when queried it stated it was using synergy/torvik/hoop-math as sources-
For a freshman guard, 57.5% at the rim is very solid—well above average for an 18- or 19-year-old.
Of all offensive metrics in college basketball, rim finishing is the most strongly correlated with age and physical strength. Freshmen almost always experience an adjustment period as they learn to finish through D-I body contact and around college-level rim protectors.
NCAA Freshman Guard Rim Benchmarks
- D-I Freshman Guard Average: ~52% – 55% (lower than the overall D-I guard baseline of 55%–58%).
- Red Flag / Struggling Freshmen: Under 50% (common for raw or undersized point guards who haven't built an NBA/D-I frame yet).
- Good / Solid Baseline (Where 57.5% Sits): 55% – 59% (shows high-level touch and the ability to handle physical play).
- Elite / Lottery Prospect Territory: 60% – 65%+ (e.g., top-tier athletes or physically developed freshmen like Dylan Harper, Brayden Burries, or Mikel Brown Jr.).
Separately (from a different post), 2pt% 49% would seem to be high average to solid for a guard. In the context of his other numbers it seems a stretch to call this a weakness which implies a deficiency vs it not being his strength which it isnt. there are other reasons he was drafted 5th
Out of our 8 guys who played, his percentage ranked 7th.
The freshman guard aspect might be valid. Kingston Flemings was actually worse than Wagler, at 57.2%. And Acuff wasn't a ton better at just over 59%.
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I wish points (including FTs) per attempt at the rim was publicly available
Went back to the pod, and he mentioned 2 point percentage increasing, free throw rate increasing, turnover rate decreasing (all of which I think will happen).
He did not mention rim attempts or 2 point attempts. Did say Vaaks's "shot distribution" will likely be better.