Illini Basketball 2026-2027

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#1,178      
I’m not calling CH a liar. I’m saying despite playing hurt, he still played 31.5 minutes per game.

Which means, playing hurt has less to do with your minutes than how much the team values you.

About the original point - Andrej not playing 30 minutes a night has more to do with him not being valuable enough to play that amount, than just being hurt.

We couldn’t play Kylan and Andrej together, because they were two subpar shooters. Tough decisions had to be made with different lineups.

Eh... 2 different guys with possibly 2 different injuries (or varying severity).

Boswell averaged 30.0 mpg and Andrej 26.3 so of course they played together. They were in the starting lineup together for 20+ games and according to on/off data our 3 most used lineups included both players. So I think you are wrong.
 
#1,179      
I'll be honest: the ONLY thing that's holding me back with Vaaks, is his lack of ability to get to the rim. He only attempted 2.1 shots per game at the rim last year.

For context, Keaton was at 3.9. Kylan was at 3.7. Kasparas was at 3.4.

.....

He also only attempted 3.9 twos per game.

Every starter on our team last year minus Tomislav, was above 5.0. In 2025, 4/5 starters were above 5.0 as well (with Tre White at 4.8).

.....

His 51.7% 2pt percentage will improve, I have no doubts. Quite literally every transfer we've gotten has improved their 2pt% after arriving here.

It's the ability to not be purely perimeter oriented, and get downhill for more of those opportunities, that I think he needs to work on.
Do you have a stat on how many at the rim Keaton made?
 
#1,181      
Wagler’s 2 point percentage was legitimately, his only weakness (at least at the college level).

He did not lack courage, and would drive in undeterred…. just didn’t get enough of them to drop, percentage wise.

His FT rate however, was terrific.
 
#1,182      
Wagler’s 2 point percentage was legitimately, his only weakness (at least at the college level).

He did not lack courage, and would drive in undeterred…. just didn’t get enough of them to drop, percentage wise.

His FT rate however, was terrific.
THIS is my point with Vaaks.

Keaton didn't make as many as you'd ideally hope, but he was able to get those looks thru his aggressiveness.

If Vaaks is able to get those looks, I think he makes more than Keaton considering: 1) his 2pt percentage was already higher last year. 2) we ALWAYS improve our transfer's 2pt percentage. 3) he's alot bigger, stronger, older than Keaton.

That's what would really elevate him to lottery pick status, IMO. In addition to getting a bit better defensively and on the glass (which I think will happen).
 
#1,183      
THIS is my point with Vaaks.

Keaton didn't make as many as you'd ideally hope, but he was able to get those looks thru his aggressiveness.

If Vaaks is able to get those looks, I think he makes more than Keaton considering: 1) his 2pt percentage was already higher last year. 2) we ALWAYS improve our transfer's 2pt percentage. 3) he's alot bigger, stronger, older than Keaton.

That's what would really elevate him to lottery pick status, IMO. In addition to getting a bit better defensively and on the glass (which I think will happen).
I will note, Boswell's improvement in this area was especially encouraging.

In 2024, he shot 41.5% from two on 3.9 attempts. The following year at Illinois, he shot 56.7% from two on 5.3 attempts (and last year 54% on 5.4 attempts).

.....

Also, KB's free throw rate of 12.3% was literally the worst on Arizona's roster. Even worse than the walk ons; literally the worst on the team.

At Illinois, it was 43.3% in 2025 and 41.5% in 2026. Both very good.

.....

For the comparison -- Vaaks at Providence shot 51.7% from two on 3.9 attempts. Vaaks's free throw rate at Providence was 29.5%.

I'm not sure what a leap necessarily looks like, but almost certain both those numbers will go up for him.
 
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#1,184      
I will note, Boswell's improvement in this area was especially encouraging.

In 2024, he shot 41.5% from two on 3.9 attempts. The following year at Illinois, he shot 56.7% from two on 5.3 attempts (and last year 54% on 5.4 attempts).

.....

Also, KB's free throw rate of 12.3% was literally the worst on Arizona's roster. Even worse than the walk ons; literally the worst on the team.

At Illinois, it was 43.3% in 2025 and 41.5% in 2026. Both very good.

.....

For the comparison -- Vaaks at Providence shot 51.7% from two on 3.9 attempts. Vaaks's free throw rate at Providence was 29.5%.

I'm not sure what a leap necessarily looks like, but almost certain both those numbers will go up for him.
It's different because Boswell came from one of the best teams in the country. Usually those guys can take those leaps, with a greater role.

Vaaks came from one of the worst power conference teams. Those guys tend to have their statistical leaps more capped, because we've already seen what they are in their highest usage roles (on a bad team, no less).

2 point percentage and free throw rate could increase, as those are efficiency metrics.

Not sure about 2 point attempts increasing. In a high usage role, on a bad team, we've already seen how that's probably not his game.
 
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#1,185      
I’m not calling CH a liar. I’m saying despite playing hurt, he still played 31.5 minutes per game.

Which means, playing hurt has less to do with your minutes than how much the team values you.

About the original point - Andrej not playing 30 minutes a night has more to do with him not being valuable enough to play that amount, than just being hurt.

We couldn’t play Kylan and Andrej together, because they were two subpar shooters. Tough decisions had to be made with different lineups.
Playing with an injury can limit your physical endurance. So, playing super high minutes might not be an option to begin with.

Also, different player's injuries are different. And different players deal with injuries in a different manner.
 
#1,186      
It's different because Boswell came from one of the best teams in the country. Usually those guys can take those leaps, with a greater role.

Vaaks came from one of the worst power conference teams. Those guys tend to have their statistical leaps more capped, because we've already seen what they are in their highest usage roles (on a bad team, no less).

2 point percentage and free throw rate could increase, as those are efficiency metrics.

Not sure about 2 point attempts increasing. In a high usage role, on a bad team, we've already seen how that's probably not his game.
Big part of the of Vaaks’ low rim rate at Providence was a clogged lane. Playing in a 5 out offense should increase his rim rate here.

MLT’s shared the stats on one of the Werner podcasts, but rim rate is usually one of the stats that improves the most by incoming transfers.
 
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#1,187      
57.5% (which is not very good, tbh).

Vaaks was 64.1%, but on way less attempts.
source? legitimately curious. i admit the following could be AI slop but when queried it stated it was using synergy/torvik/hoop-math as sources-

For a freshman guard, 57.5% at the rim is very solid—well above average for an 18- or 19-year-old.

Of all offensive metrics in college basketball, rim finishing is the most strongly correlated with age and physical strength. Freshmen almost always experience an adjustment period as they learn to finish through D-I body contact and around college-level rim protectors.

NCAA Freshman Guard Rim Benchmarks​


  • D-I Freshman Guard Average: ~52% – 55% (lower than the overall D-I guard baseline of 55%–58%).
  • Red Flag / Struggling Freshmen: Under 50% (common for raw or undersized point guards who haven't built an NBA/D-I frame yet).
  • Good / Solid Baseline (Where 57.5% Sits): 55% – 59% (shows high-level touch and the ability to handle physical play).
  • Elite / Lottery Prospect Territory: 60% – 65%+ (e.g., top-tier athletes or physically developed freshmen like Dylan Harper, Brayden Burries, or Mikel Brown Jr.).
also notes that this was average for guards across all years.


Separately (from a different post), 2pt% 49% would seem to be high average to solid for a guard. In the context of his other numbers it seems a stretch to call this a weakness which implies a deficiency vs it not being his strength which it isnt. there are other reasons he was drafted 5th
 
#1,188      
source? legitimately curious. i admit the following could be AI slop but when queried it stated it was using synergy/torvik/hoop-math as sources-
Out of our 8 guys who played, his percentage ranked 7th.
For a freshman guard, 57.5% at the rim is very solid—well above average for an 18- or 19-year-old.

Of all offensive metrics in college basketball, rim finishing is the most strongly correlated with age and physical strength. Freshmen almost always experience an adjustment period as they learn to finish through D-I body contact and around college-level rim protectors.

NCAA Freshman Guard Rim Benchmarks​


  • D-I Freshman Guard Average: ~52% – 55% (lower than the overall D-I guard baseline of 55%–58%).
  • Red Flag / Struggling Freshmen: Under 50% (common for raw or undersized point guards who haven't built an NBA/D-I frame yet).
  • Good / Solid Baseline (Where 57.5% Sits): 55% – 59% (shows high-level touch and the ability to handle physical play).
  • Elite / Lottery Prospect Territory: 60% – 65%+ (e.g., top-tier athletes or physically developed freshmen like Dylan Harper, Brayden Burries, or Mikel Brown Jr.).
also notes that this was average for guards across all years.


Separately (from a different post), 2pt% 49% would seem to be high average to solid for a guard. In the context of his other numbers it seems a stretch to call this a weakness which implies a deficiency vs it not being his strength which it isnt. there are other reasons he was drafted 5th
The freshman guard aspect might be valid. Kingston Flemings was actually worse than Wagler, at 57.2%. And Acuff wasn't a ton better at just over 59%.
 
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#1,189      
Wagler’s 2 point percentage was legitimately, his only weakness (at least at the college level).

He did not lack courage, and would drive in undeterred…. just didn’t get enough of them to drop, percentage wise.

His FT rate however, was terrific.
I wish points (including FTs) per attempt at the rim was publicly available
 
#1,190      
MLT’s shared the stats on one of the Werner podcasts, but rim rate is usually one of the stats that improves the most by incoming transfers.
Went back to the pod, and he mentioned 2 point percentage increasing, free throw rate increasing, turnover rate decreasing (all of which I think will happen).

He did not mention rim attempts or 2 point attempts. Did say Vaaks's "shot distribution" will likely be better.
 
#1,193      
I'll be honest: the ONLY thing that's holding me back with Vaaks, is his lack of ability to get to the rim. He only attempted 2.1 shots per game at the rim last year.

For context, Keaton was at 3.9. Kylan was at 3.7. Kasparas was at 3.4.

.....

He also only attempted 3.9 twos per game.

Every starter on our team last year minus Tomislav, was above 5.0. In 2025, 4/5 starters were above 5.0 as well (with Tre White at 4.8).

.....

His 51.7% 2pt percentage will improve, I have no doubts. Quite literally every transfer we've gotten has improved their 2pt% after arriving here.

It's the ability to not be purely perimeter oriented, and get downhill for more of those opportunities, that I think he needs to work on.
That's a good insight from Vaaks last year - the thing that gives me confidence that he'll improve in both rim rate and % made at the rim is our offensive scheme

When we talk about how our scheme is so efficient and makes lead guards great it's because we have a pick and roll big who you have to stay connected to and shooters all around the arc, so the driving lanes are wide open. He's 6-7 220, he'll improve his finishes at the rim I'm sure.

I'll also say, last year teams started just leaving Andrej, Kylan and Big Z open from three and that hurt our ability to get to the rim. With a better shooting team this year which I think we'll be with Coleman and Vaaks and Big T regaining his form and Andrej just being back to his Stanford %, we become a better shooting team than last year
 
#1,194      

2nd to last item in the article:

99. David Mirkovic will win national player of the year. He was all kinds of fun as a freshman and by all accounts he has made a major leap this summer. He’ll have the team around him to do it as well.

^^^ Guess us "insane homer" fans here aren't the only ones that think he's capable
 
#1,195      
2nd to last item in the article:

99. David Mirkovic will win national player of the year. He was all kinds of fun as a freshman and by all accounts he has made a major leap this summer. He’ll have the team around him to do it as well.

^^^ Guess us "insane homer" fans here aren't the only ones that think he's capable
If this prediction comes to pass, I predict we win it all this year...I'm making my Detroit reservations now..
 
#1,198      
This is the first time we have made the final four & brought back a team that might be as good or perhaps better later in the year if guys like Mirk & Andrej take a big jump. We've had maybe 3 seasons in my lifetime where we had serious title aspirations coming in. 1989, 2002, 2005. Remember in 02 SI had us preseason #1. Didn't deliver on the hype tho. I'd add this coming year to the mix. The game is so different with so much turnover but we kept a solid chunk of our key contributors & added some good pieces to the mix.
Yes we did. We got absolutely r&);): by the officials in the elite 8.
 
#1,199      
I was there that night my first ever Illini game attended. I went to Lou Henson basketball camp in the 90s but never a live game until that night. It was electric still remember the noise in there that night.
It does not seem like the atmosphere is as electric as it used to be.
 
#1,200      
2nd to last item in the article:

99. David Mirkovic will win national player of the year. He was all kinds of fun as a freshman and by all accounts he has made a major leap this summer. He’ll have the team around him to do it as well.

^^^ Guess us "insane homer" fans here aren't the only ones that think he's capable
1st or 2nd team All-American is very doable. To win player of the year, the usage will have to be there.

Last year, his usage was 23.3 and Keaton’s was 25.7. Meanwhile, his biggest competition for player of the year, Jeremy Fears, was at 27.1 last year and I could see that going up this year.

But this coaching staff has shown they’ll give our best players a ton of usage. TJ had a 27.9 in 2024, Kofi had a 30.7 in 2022, and Ayo was at 29.4 in 2021.

Not sure any of those teams had as much talent around their stars as we do this year, though.
 
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