Illini Football 2026

#127      
These days, words mean very little don't they. I think the LESSON WAS LEARNED. Hopefully we can somehow get to 6 wins this year and keep some form of momentum going. Anything better than that would be a major achievement. Frankly I don't see 7. We have a lot of toss up games and with our defense the way it is, Purdue is going to be tough. Those of you that don't believe that need only go back two years ago. What was it? 49-48?
Not sure signing NIL agreements means much either (twice). See Johnson, Morez.
 
#129      
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As has been said before (Gritty?), those Texans have oil money to burn...

Oil Well Fire GIF
 
#130      
At what point is this unsustainable?
The current model, IMO, will start to become unsustainable fairly quickly. A decade or so. Every time somebody writes a check for NIL & that doesn't pan out it is gonna be harder to get that amount of $ from that person the next time. So there will be a gradual squeezing of the market when it comes to NIL dollars. I also won't be surprised if, over time, some mid level D1 programs (not P4 schools) decide football just ain't worth it any more & step down to FCS. At some level of D1 the juice just isn't gonna be worth the squeeze to try to compete at a reasonable level. I could perhaps see this at some of the low level D1 leagues. Maybe a MAC or SunBelt or some league like that for the schools that are fledgling at the bottom of those leagues.
 
#131      
Yeah it's tough. Reportedly, we spent in the 20s this year. Assuming we spent $15m of our $20m available in revenue sharing on football, that means donors/businesses likely contributed another $5-$10m in NIL. Maybe not that exactly, but likely somewhere in that range.

If that $5m-$10m were to net a 5 win season, how eager are they to pony up even more next year? And more the year after that?

It's easy to raise NIL when you're winning. How easy was it for Indiana to take in another $15m after going 16-0 and winning the national championship?

It's way more difficult when you're underperforming expectations.
According to the Athletic, we were in the $19-22M range, which put us close to the bottom of the BIG and less than half of what tOSU and Oregon spent, and roughly half of what UM, IU and USC had available.
 
#134      
man, credit to bielema because it's been a while since i saw a fresh "here is a college football metric. there's illinois hanging out in the bottom quartile" type of graph.

but there it is. i just don't know how this happened since the vibes seemed immaculate for the last couple years. the 5-7 season hurt our momentum but we won ten the next year. getting completely dismantled by an indiana team nobody knew was an unstoppable juggernaut also can't have helped, but we beat usc shortly thereafter.

everyone in the program had to know we were headed for a bit of a roster cliff after 25, did the boosters not know or did they not care?

this is a bit depressing.
 
#135      
As premier University in a top 5 State for GDP output, and with a top 3 US City for GDP that is also where our student population predominantly comes from…

I feel we should have a stronger budget for our Athletic Department. Hell, Michigan and Ohio spends like they’re Texas, and you’re telling me Detroit and Cleveland and/or Cincinnati rival Chicago?

Obviously, the nuances like Chicago being a more national and international city could mean we don’t have as solely committed of a local base as some of these other cities (ie Milwaukee to Wiscy, Detroit to Mich/MSU, Indy to Ind/Purdue, etc), but our total alumni population has to at least match those other cities, if proportions aren’t as high. We gotta tap into this money.

Wisconsin even admitted defeat and got the state government to fund other departments in order to free up money and NIL for their trending downward football program and other athletics.

Just consider this a crazy rant. Gotta be better and we have access to more resources that’s all
 
#138      
On an unrelated note, did you guys know Beckman’s “take away those 3 plays” quote was basically fake? Made up by the media essentially.

Here’s the story from Robert’s latest article. I had no idea:

After Illinois lost at Washington 44-19 in 2014, the following quote was all everyone talked about after the game. It became the defining quote of the entire Tim Beckman era:

“Can’t let a big strike go on you there defensively. In three plays we gave up 21 points. I mean, you take out 21 points on three plays and we’re in this football game.”

The issue with that quote, as I wrote at the time, was that it was a mashup quote. I was standing right there with the other media members at Husky Stadium. He did not say those three sentences consecutively. They were simply combined to make it sound like one quote.

He said the "big strike" thing in reference to the 21 point blitz (in the first half, Illinois gave up a 75 yard bomb, a fumble return for a touchdown three plays later, and a pick six not long after that), then he answered a question about penalties in the game, then he answered a question about the pressure from Washington's defensive ends, and then he was asked what message he gave to his team at halftime. He said that he told his team there were still 30 minutes left and that "you take out 21 points on three plays and we're in this game" as a way to communicate that there's a lot of football left. (Spoiler: we did not come back in the second half.)

With that context (answering a "how did you try to rally your team at halftime?" question), it's a fairly innocuous quote. Combine one of his answers from earlier ("in three plays we gave up 21 points") with that answer, making it sound like he stood in front of the media after a game he lost 44-19 and said "you take out 21 points on three plays and we're in this football game", and it will take off like wildfire. It's now all you remember about Beckman. And it was cooked up on a laptop by not telling the reader that he was asked to quote himself from halftime when he was trying to rally the troops for a comeback.

 
#139      
If 10-3 followed by 9-4 to go along with back to back SEC Bowl wins gets us to 14th in conference, I’m scared to find out where 6-6 will place us.
Or.......it incentivizes some people to pony up.

It really all comes down to $ now, doesn't it? Another $5M in NIL and we have a legit shot at going 10-2 and in line for a playoff berth
 
#140      
From what I understand, it’s not that they were caught off guard by DL market, but more so, our current D-Lineman had agreed to come back. Them deciding to transfer is what caught them off guard.

This is a circular issue. They were caught off-guard because TAMU was offering many multiples more to McCollum than Illinois was or willing to pay. You can also look at how the program responded and the players they were able to convince to join the team was not impressive. There was an incorrect assumption of the defensive line market and the on-field results are showing that.

And that’s a huge problem in two respects. First, it ensures salaries remain an unpredictable moving target. How is a coach supposed to plan and budget with any confidence?

I assume the arms race discourages even some mega donors, who have no confidence their gift will move the needle. Do you want you give a couple million bucks only to find your team still can’t afford much talent?

This is not a new problem, assistant coach salaries have been growing substantially for decades, staffs are 5x bigger than 20 years ago, recruiting budgets have likely 100x'd in the same time period, and now almost every P4 program has a GM and staff dedicated to personnel, recruiting, portal, and coaching staff financials. They are (handsomely) paid to project the costs and organize a plan for roster construction. If you do a poor job of allocating your resources, the subsequent on-field results will impact your employment status.
 
#141      
Maybe someone on here knows the answer to this? Aside from the obvious, how does it benefit a large donor to give millions every year to NIL? If they aren’t a fanatic or see NIL for what it sort of is (money pit with no guarantee of CFP success) then maybe not much?
 
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#142      
According to the Athletic, we were in the $19-22M range, which put us close to the bottom of the BIG and less than half of what tOSU and Oregon spent, and roughly half of what UM, IU and USC had available.
The crazy part is in 2024 when OSU won the championship the talking points were about their $20M roster. So, the cost has over doubled since then.
 
#144      
Curious to know where IU was 3 years ago.
Edit: …relative to the rest of the B1G. I’m sure everyone was lower as this seems to be a fast growing monster but I’d be curious to see their rise vis-a-vis budget in this time.
 
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#145      
What I also take from this somewhat is that, yeah the playing field is not equal. So any and every time we pull an upset on Ohio State, Michigan, USC, and other high spenders, it is absolutely embarrassing for them.

Ohio State has a roster worth nearly twice as much as us? If we’re to win in that condition, they deserve to be drug the mud over how that happens. A loss is expected and sucks, but a win? For example a 2007 type event, I’ll spend the rest of my days reminding them of that upset without mercy, because with how much resources they get to put towards their team. Like an MLS team beating a Premier League team.
 
#148      
We complain about lack of money for serious talent, yet we just lost to a team that has significantly less $ than we do... That's a tough pill to swallow.
Upsets happen. Oregon just lost to Oklahoma St.

But on average, the teams with the most money win the most games. If we would’ve had an extra $10 million in NIL and were able to adequately build our front 6 on defense, would we be better than we are now?
 
#149      
Probably the best and most accurate reporting on actual roster costs we've had in a long time. Not sure if its paywalled but here's where we are compared to the rest of the Big Ten (how the heck are we poorer than Northwestern, Rutgers, and UCLA?)_:

1789591358991.png

We're also right near the bottom of the entire P4 with schools like Cal (!), Virginia, BYU, NC State, TCU, Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt all with deeper pockets this season:
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How is this possible?
 
#150      
Probably the best and most accurate reporting on actual roster costs we've had in a long time. Not sure if its paywalled but here's where we are compared to the rest of the Big Ten (how the heck are we poorer than Northwestern, Rutgers, and UCLA?)_:

View attachment 51703

We're also right near the bottom of the entire P4 with schools like Cal (!), Virginia, BYU, NC State, TCU, Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt all with deeper pockets this season:
View attachment 51704

How is this possible?
How is Rutgers that bad with more money?
 
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