Bowls/CFP Projections

[ChiefGritty]

The problem is that Oregon would also be 9-3. We would have the head to head win, but Oregon would likely look better to the committee. That Purdue loss would really hurt us there.

Hard to see the committee taking two 9-3 teams from the B1G. Oregon winning out is not good for Illinois.

I think we would deserve that slot over Oregon with the head-to-head win.

The problem is we probably wouldn't deserve it over a BYU or Wake Forest.

We are way, way out on the limb of hypothetical here though. The CFP and the Frisco Football Classic is quite a range of postseason projections.

 

[Illini2010-11]

I think we would deserve that slot over Oregon with the head-to-head win.

The problem is we probably wouldn't deserve it over a BYU or Wake Forest.

We are way, way out on the limb of hypothetical here though. The CFP and the Frisco Football Classic is quite a range of postseason projections.

Agree 100% here. If Illini pull off major upset Friday night, the calculus changes substantially.

FWIW, I think that Oregon loses one of their next 3 games.

Illinois simply needs to take care of their own business. Get to 9-3, and Citrus Bowl or ReliaQuest being the floor would be incredible for the season. 7-5 would also be a very good season too.

 

[ChiefGritty]

Agree 100% here. If Illini pull off major upset Friday night, the calculus changes substantially.

FWIW, I think that Oregon loses one of their next 3 games.

Illinois simply needs to take care of their own business. Get to 9-3, and Citrus Bowl or ReliaQuest being the floor would be incredible for the season. 7-5 would also be a very good season too.

Now that we have our bowl eligibility, my next request is spoiling the Mildcats party in their white elephant European soccer stadium.

 

[lstewart53x3]

In terms of our rooting interests over the next few weeks, I imagine it goes something like:

- Root for us to win every game and whatever else is needed for us to have an outside shot at the CFP.

- If we lose a game, which is likely, root for as many B1G teams as possible to make the CFP, which allows us to get into the best possible bowl.

Anything I’m missing?

 

[Greensboro]

fyi... Big Ten Conf. Playoff Simulator

1. • Head-to-head regular season record: (Only applies if all tied teams played each other; in multi-team ties, it is used if one team swept all others involved).
   • Record against all common conference opponents:
   • Record against common opponents ordered by finish: Evaluated based on their record against common opponents starting with the highest-placed common opponent in the conference standings and working down.
   • Cumulative conference winning percentage: The combined conference winning percentage of all conference opponents each tied team played (strength of schedule).
   • SportSource Analytics Rating Score: The highest ranking by the SportSource Analytics rating metric following the regular season.
   • Random draw: A random draw conducted by the Big Ten Commissioner or a designee

 

[BryceHopkins]

In terms of our rooting interests over the next few weeks, I imagine it goes something like:

- Root for us to win every game and whatever else is needed for us to have an outside shot at the CFP.

- If we lose a game, which is likely, root for as many B1G teams as possible to make the CFP, which allows us to get into the best possible bowl.

Anything I’m missing?

You forgot about rooting against Michigan... Always be rooting against Michigan

 

[Greensboro]

the scenario that seems to work for us is tie with only UCLA & Oregon (Throw wisconsin and or OSU into the mix and one of UCLA/Oregon/OSU takes the second conference slot)

 

[Greensboro]

You forgot about rooting against Michigan... Always be rooting against Michigan

We might need Michigan to beat OSU in the 1% sot we have to make the CFP....small sacrifice to root for Michigan instead of both teams to lose

 

[RabidDawgClassic]

Neither of these are sufficient enough to secure a spot in the Big Ten Championship (AssemblyHallForever is close). Tie breakers are weird in the Big Ten. Especially if you have multiple teams that transitively cancel wins out. And unfortunately, Illinois is the loser in a lot of those tiebreakers. The only tie breakers they win against are ones that directly compare Illinois, Oregon, and UCLA, and only if Illinois beats UCLA.

The way I can realistically see Illinois making the championship is if the following happen:
1. Illinois wins out. Obviously a must. And this might be the least realistic of the following things.
2. Indiana beats USC this week.
3. USC beats UCLA in the final game.
4. Wisconsin needs to lose one more game to any of Maryland, Purdue, or Minnesota.
5. OSU just needs to lose one more game to any of Northwestern, Nebraska, or Michigan.

If this were to happen, Indiana would be 8-1, and Illinois would be 7-2 along with only UCLA and Oregon. We win any tie breaker involving those three in that regard.

There could be other really weird tiebreakers that could possibly get us in, but with three weeks left, there's still a lot of possibilities left, and I don't want to figure out 100 million scenarios.

Yup… this scenario works. Here’s the B1G football simulator to play with various scenarios.

B1G Football Simulator

Other than Illinois winning out, I think the toughest part is Wisconsin losing another game. They have Maryland, Purdue and Minnesota (at Camp Randall) left.

OSU is in a free fall without their star QB, but who’s gonna give them that third loss? An Aiden Chiles-less Northwestern? The comically inept Nebraska? The offensively-challenged Wolverines? These will be interesting tests for both sides.

Even if USC beats Indiana, it’s unlikely the Hoosiers will will get a third conference loss, so the only realistic scenario is for us to tie with two loss Oregon and UCLA (who we’d own the tiebreakers over) and everyone else have three or more losses. There’s too many scenarios where multiple two-loss teams tying leaves us out of the championship game.

 

[orangem]

We could also get in without another Wiscy loss if Michigan beats UCLA at the Big House -- maybe the new Mich OC isn't utterly incompetent:


1. Indiana (8 - 1)
2. Illinois (7 - 2)
Above Oregon and Wisconsin based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-0).
3. Oregon (7 - 2)
With Wisconsin, below Illinois based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-1).
Above Wisconsin based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5062).
4. Wisconsin (7 - 2)
With Oregon, below Illinois based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-1).
Below Oregon based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3951).

 

[Mr. Tibbs]

We could also get in without another Wiscy loss if Michigan beats UCLA at the Big House -- maybe the new Mich OC isn't utterly incompetent:


1. Indiana (8 - 1)
2. Illinois (7 - 2)
Above Oregon and Wisconsin based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-0).
3. Oregon (7 - 2)
With Wisconsin, below Illinois based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-1).
Above Wisconsin based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5062).
4. Wisconsin (7 - 2)
With Oregon, below Illinois based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-1).
Below Oregon based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3951).

 

[Dan]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2120346886812938612

 

[illinoistradition]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2120346886812938612

Two loss Alabama ahead of undefeated UCLA? I get strength of schedule, but come on!

 

[Genesis]

There are two states with two teams in the top ten. One is Indiana. The other is ... Utah. Not TX, GA or CA, but Utah. How did that happen?

 

[lstewart53x3]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2120346886812938612

This is your weekly reminder that:

There are 5 two loss teams in the field of 12 teams who would make the playoff if it started today. 4 of those 5 are in the SEC. The 2 two loss B1G teams (Iowa and USC) are currently ranked #15 and #18. The B1G has 2 three loss teams in the top 25 and the SEC has 4.

 

[lstewart53x3]

This is the CFP poll in a nutshell:

— ESPN ranks SEC recruits high in recruiting rankings.

— Recruiting rankings establish preseason polls and metrics.

— SEC team 1 beats SEC team 2 with high preseason ranking. SEC team 2 beats SEC team 3 with high preseason rankings. SEC team 3 beats SEC team 1 with high preseason ranking.

— All 3 teams keep their high ranking because they beat each other.

Here’s one piece of evidence of this. Minnesota, yes, Minnesota is LSU. Literally, they have an almost identical resume to LSU over the past 5 seasons, yet compare how many weeks each have been ranked:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2005271721524580807

 

[IlliniWu]

Two loss Alabama ahead of undefeated UCLA? I get strength of schedule, but come on!

This is when I just stop paying attention even moreso. There's no way possible that should be, but again they do it every year so its hardly surprising. And the only metric they will keep throwing in is they're playing each other.

I see people keep saying look at the SEC record vs other conferences but that means nothing to the point that they have a 2 loss team ahead of an undefeated team in the B1G. If they lose they won't even fall that far.

 

[ChiefGritty]

I see people keep saying look at the SEC record vs other conferences but that means nothing to the point that they have a 2 loss team ahead of an undefeated team in the B1G. If they lose they won't even fall that far.

This sport no longer respects the absence of losses on a team's record, period, end of story, abandon any hope of that principle ever returning.

Screwing Florida State was the mask off moment for what this is now. NFL-ification lovers, you chose this.

Their solution for this particular problem is to have an SEC-B1G Challenge in September, but the SEC schools will move heaven and earth to weasel out of that.

 

[Birdus]

This sport no longer respects the absence of losses on a team's record, period, end of story, abandon any hope of that principle ever returning.

Screwing Florida State was the mask off moment for what this is now. NFL-ification lovers, you chose this.

Their solution for this particular problem is to have an SEC-B1G Challenge in September, but the SEC schools will move heaven and earth to weasel out of that.

I agree. SEC doesn't need it. Welcome to the SEC tournament. The current brackets are amazingly biased. Even if we or Oregon won out, I don't see either getting in. LSU or a 3 loss SEC team will get in. The best we can hope for is a new years bowl game against South Carolina or a similar team again.

 

[Birdus]

I wonder if we'd be as well off (or better off) making the CFP by winning the last 3 but not making the Big Ten Championship game? A loss in the championship game could drop us out. If Indiana and UCLA play they would both be in anyway; so a UCLA loss to us and win against USC might be ok.

Oregon or a 3 loss SEC team would get in over us. Does not matter that we beat Oregon. They are a big brand and we are striving for relevance. Just don't see it.

 

[ChiefGritty]

Oregon or a 3 loss SEC team would get in over us. Does not matter that we beat Oregon. They are a big brand and we are striving for relevance. Just don't see it.

It's off in cloud cuckooland, but for the sake of argument, a 9-3 Illinois on a 7 game win streak with wins against a 9-3 Oregon (top 10ish), a 9-3 Iowa (top 20 at least), and a 12-1 Big Ten champion UCLA on the road (top 3) is absolutely going to take CFP precedence over SEC teams that don't have those kinds of wins.

The committee is acting with a relative degree of logical consistency about prioritizing good wins. The problem is that they are laundering what good wins are under the table.

 

[lstewart53x3]

Yesterday, I shared the post about LSU and Minnesota.

Today, let’s compare LSU with… Illinois. We’ll look at the past 3 seasons (this season and the previous 2):

Weeks spent in the AP Poll:

LSU: 31
Illinois: 20

Overall record:

LSU: 22-13
Illinois: 25-10

Record vs Top 25 teams:

LSU: 3-9
Illinois: 6-4

Record vs P4 programs:

LSU: 15-13
Illinois: 19-13

Illinois has a better overall record, a better record vs top 25 opponents, a better record vs P4 opponents, yet has spent 11 less weeks ranked over the past 3 seasons.

It’s a scam. Always has been. Always will be.

 

[IlliniFaninHoosierLand]

Yesterday, I shared the post about LSU and Minnesota.

Today, let’s compare LSU with… Illinois. We’ll look at the past 3 seasons (this season and the previous 2):

Weeks spent in the AP Poll:

LSU: 31
Illinois: 20

Overall record:

LSU: 22-13
Illinois: 25-10

Record vs Top 25 teams:

LSU: 3-9
Illinois: 6-4

Record vs P4 programs:

LSU: 15-13
Illinois: 19-13

Illinois has a better overall record, a better record vs top 25 opponents, a better record vs P4 opponents, yet has spent 11 less weeks ranked over the past 3 seasons.

It’s a scam. Always has been. Always will be.

What's SOS difference between the two?

 

[lstewart53x3]

What's SOS difference between the two?

Honestly, why does that matter? I’m confused by the question.

LSU has played 12 ranked opponents. They’ve won 3 of those games. LSU has played 28 P4 opponents. They’ve won 15 of those games. We’ve played 10 ranked opponents and won 6 of those games (3 more than LSU). We’ve played 32 P4 opponents and won 19 of those games (4 more than LSU).

Sure, LSU, likely played a “stronger SOS” because the average P4 opponent in the SEC (on paper) is stronger than the average P4 opponent in the B1G.

But that goes back to my original point yesterday, which is: the metrics that determine SOS are heavily weighted by recruiting rankings. A game played against LSU looks better on paper than a game played against Minnesota, even though Minnesota has just as strong of a resume over the past 5 seasons. They just haven’t, on paper, recruited as well.

So looking at a programs record vs ranked opponents and P4 opponents is a *better* measure of SOS than the SOS statistic, in my opinion.

 

[Dkayak]

Honestly, why does that matter? I’m confused by the question.

LSU has played 12 ranked opponents. They’ve won 3 of those games. LSU has played 28 P4 opponents. They’ve won 15 of those games. We’ve played 10 ranked opponents and won 6 of those games (3 more than LSU). We’ve played 32 P4 opponents and won 19 of those games (4 more than LSU).

Sure, LSU, likely played a “stronger SOS” because the average P4 opponent in the SEC (on paper) is stronger than the average P4 opponent in the B1G.

But that goes back to my original point yesterday, which is: the metrics that determine SOS are heavily weighted by recruiting rankings. A game played against LSU looks better on paper than a game played against Minnesota, even though Minnesota has just as strong of a resume over the past 5 seasons. They just haven’t, on paper, recruited as well.

So looking at a programs record vs ranked opponents and P4 opponents is a *better* measure of SOS than the SOS statistic, in my opinion.

Your methodology filters out much of the presumed higher strength of all SEC teams, focusing instead on W-L records against teams with recognized strength.

SOS would reintroduce the false assumption of strength across the entire SEC, which already infects the top 25 polls, as noted by @Joel Goodson in another thread.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2120373379308159231