1/31 Polls & Bracketology - Illinois #18 in AP Poll

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#201      

Piotyr

P
Piotyr
lstewart53x3 said:
Technically Villanova is not “ranked” ahead of Auburn in the NET as the NET is not used for rankings.

The committee does not use your net ranking in their evaluation of your possible seeding. Instead, they look at the net ranking of the teams you beat and lost to.

That being said, Auburn is “ranked” 6 in KenPom, even though they have just one loss because advanced metrics like KenPom & Net look at more than just wins and losses, but also how you played in those games.

Advanced metrics are useful, but humans monitoring actual wins and losses is useful too.
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That's not entirely correct. A committee member, on Twitter, clarified a position stated by Jerry Palm (CBS bracketologist) that even though Palm said the committee only uses NET rankings as a method to look at how they did against what quality of opponents, they also look at the NET rankings themselves and other efficiency metrics for assessing teams and placing them in the bracket.

As for why the NET rankings, Villanova is ranked higher than Auburn because Villanova has been a more efficient team than Auburn over the season (more impressive wins against a tougher overall schedule). Results-profile-wise, Auburn leads the pack.
 
#202      

lstewart53x3

lstewart53x3
Scottsdale, Arizona
lstewart53x3
Piotyr said:
That's not entirely correct. A committee member, on Twitter, clarified a position stated by Jerry Palm (CBS bracketologist) that even though Palm said the committee only uses NET rankings as a method to look at how they did against what quality of opponents, they also look at the NET rankings themselves and other efficiency metrics for assessing teams and placing them in the bracket.

As for why the NET rankings, Villanova is ranked higher than Auburn because Villanova has been a more efficient team than Auburn over the season (more impressive wins against a tougher overall schedule). Results-profile-wise, Auburn leads the pack.
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Got it. Good to know.
 
#205      

727ill

7
727ill
220Illini said:
Just thinking about the atmosphere for a Sweet 16 / Elite 8 game at the United Center… would be an absolute madhouse. I want to avoid Purdue or Arizona as the 1 seed in our region. I think we match up very well with Auburn and would beat them
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Big no to matching up with Auburn. Who the hell will guard Jabari Smith?
 
#206      

trtl

T
trtl
IllGuardU said:
Can someone explain to me why Villanova with 6 quad 1 losses is ahead of Auburn with 1? Not in favor of anything that helps Auburn, by the way.
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Because criterion #17 for NET rankings is, “Whether your coach is Satan.” So Auburn gets dinged a bit on that one.
 
#213      

Piotyr

P
Piotyr
Piotyr said:
A quick bracket exercise based on https://barttorvik.com/trank.php# :

Given the overall volatility between some teams' efficiency metrics and results metrics, I ran each team's average place between Torvik's ratings (efficiency) and the Wins Above Bubble metric (results), and ranked the results into a kind of bracket.

Here would be the resulting bracket (* = auto bid/highest ranked team from their conference):

1 seeds: Purdue*, Kansas*, Auburn*, Arizona*
2 seeds: Gonzaga*, Duke*, Baylor, Houston*
3 seeds: Kentucky, Texas Tech, Villanova*, UCLA
4 seeds: Wisconsin, Illinois, Tennessee, Providence
5 seeds: Michigan State, St. Mary's, LSU, Texas
6 seeds: Marquette, Iowa State, Ohio State, Xavier
7 seeds: San Francisco, Indiana, Alabama, Boise State*
8 seeds: Wake Forest, TCU, Arkansas, USC
9 seeds: Murray State*, Iowa, Connecticut, North Carolina
10 seeds: Wyoming, Loyola IL*, North Texas*, San Diego State
11 seeds: Colorado State, Davidson*, Fresno State, St. Louis
12 seeds: Oregon, Iona*
Last 4 in (12 seeds): Florida, BYU, Belmont, Seton Hall
First 4 out: Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Michigan, Mississippi State
Next 4 out: SMU, UAB, Miami FL, West Virginia

Overall, seems about fair as an evaluation of where teams are at if the tourney were seeded today. Gonzaga doesn't have the results metrics right now to hit the top 4, and I would anticipate if those 4 teams run the table, the bracket might actually shake out like that (they won't, so it won't, and Gonzaga running the table would give them a 1 seed, deservedly).

Illinois is right behind a cluster of very good teams, but should keep improving their status as they keep winning (they are 13th in efficiency and 13th in results now, just behind Wisconsin who is 4th in results).

Few surprising things: WCC and MWC have several at-large worthy teams, and I for one would be fine seeing 4 teams from each conference instead of a 10th SEC team or whatever have you. This bracket would be 7 B1G teams, 7 SEC, 6 Big 12, 6 Big East, 5 MWC, 4 Pac 12, 4 WCC, 3 ACC, and 2 OVC teams (Belmont has no bad losses and 3 Q2 wins, and Murray State is 3-1 in Q1/Q2 games).

Michigan does not have the results right now (73rd in result profile), and Iowa is also staying afloat with efficiency, and could stand to improve their B1G standing if they want to feel safe with a bid.
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To give a quick example of how much this can change daily, here is the same exercise after yesterday's late results and today's results (position change in parentheses):

1 seeds: Auburn*, Kansas*, Purdue*, Gonzaga*(+1)
2 seeds: Arizona*(-1), Kentucky(+1), Duke*, Houston*
3 seeds: Baylor(-1), Texas Tech, Villanova*, Wisconsin(+1)
4 seeds: Illinois, UCLA(-1(, Tennessee, Providence
5 seeds: Michigan State, Ohio State(+1), Texas, St. Mary's
6 seeds: Iowa State, Marquette, Xavier(-1), LSU(-1)
7 seeds: Indiana, Boise State*, Arkansas(+1), Wake Forest(+1)
8 seeds: Alabama(-1), San Francisco(-1), Murray State*(+1), USC
9 seeds: Iowa, Connecticut, Wyoming(+1), Loyola IL*(+1)
10 seeds: TCU(-2), North Carolina(-1), North Texas*, Oregon(+2)
11 seeds: Davidson*, Colorado State, St. Louis, Florida(+1)
12 seeds: Seton Hall
Last 4 in: Oklahoma(+1), Notre Dame(+1), San Diego State(-2), Michigan(+1)
First 4 out: UAB(+1), Miami FL(+1), SMU(+1), Belmont(-1)
Next 4 out: Fresno State(-3), West Virginia, Mississippi State(-1), BYU(-2)
Off the board: Iona(-3)

Most of the teams that dropped had losses, some bad losses (Iona in Niagara, Fresno lost at home to Wyoming), but especially lower in the bracket, things get very volatile on the bubble, where one win can vault a team up like 8 spots in line.
 
#214      

BWA

B
BWA
The advertisement joke is really old people
 
#217      

illiniguy

illiniguy
illiniguy
BWA said:
The advertisement joke is really old people
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What's that you say about really old people?
grandpa GIF
 
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