1/31 Polls & Bracketology - Illinois #18 in AP Poll

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#176      

Champaign Toast

C
Fan since Kiwane Garris
Champaign Toast
I think there’s some incentive for sports media persons to rank us high, because it will give Tuesday’s game against Purdue a higher profile... attract more eyeballs....

E.g. #4 vs #10 is a bigger deal than #4 vs #16.

Is this how AP voters think and vote?
 
#177      

IlliniCaboose

IlliniCaboose
IlliniCaboose
Champaign Toast said:
I think there’s some incentive for sports media persons to rank us high, because it will give Tuesday’s game against Purdue a higher profile... attract more eyeballs....

E.g. #4 vs #10 is a bigger deal than #4 vs #16.

Is this how AP voters think and vote?
Click to expand...

I would assume most voters don't work directly for whichever network is carrying this game. I doubt this comes into play at all when voters are putting their rankings together. Little too much 3D chess going into this thinking, my friend.
 
#179      

The Galloping Ghost

The Galloping Ghost
Washington, DC
The Galloping Ghost
Champaign Toast said:
I think there’s some incentive for sports media persons to rank us high, because it will give Tuesday’s game against Purdue a higher profile... attract more eyeballs....

E.g. #4 vs #10 is a bigger deal than #4 vs #16.

Is this how AP voters think and vote?
Click to expand...
Here's a list of the AP voters:

Basketball Pollsters at College Poll Tracker

collegepolltracker.com collegepolltracker.com
Voters from the Albuquerque Journal, Tulsa World, Nevada Sports Net, etc. aren't thinking about getting eyeballs for ESPN. Yes, Vitale does have a vote, but he's one guy and doesn't have the power to make much of a difference.
 
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#180      

WeatherfordForMVP

W
WeatherfordForMVP
The Galloping Ghost said:
Here's a list of the AP voters:

Basketball Pollsters at College Poll Tracker

collegepolltracker.com collegepolltracker.com
Voters from the Albuquerque Journal, Tulsa World, Nevada Sports Net, etc. aren't thinking about getting eyeballs for ESPN. Yes, Vitale does have a vote, but he's one guy and doesn't have the power to make much of a difference.
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And, whatever you think about Vitale, I sincerely doubt he cares about ESPN’s ratings these days, if he ever did.
 
#182      

DeonThomas

DeonThomas
South Carolina
DeonThomas
Piotyr said:
If I had to guess, I would think Illinois passes UConn, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Villanova and Ohio State to get to 13th. Close to Baylor, but I don't think they quite pass Baylor, despite the egg they laid today.
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I believe you've nailed it good Sir, with one exception. I think we'll also pass Wisconsin for 12th.

Baylor comes in at #11, Texas Tech comes in at #10, and then a very solid top 9. #12 equates to the final 3-seed, a great spot heading into Tuesday nite!
 
#183      

BWA

B
BWA
WhiteHorseWings said:
This may just be a different way of saying the same thing, but with games at PU and Sparty, and vs OSU plus the BTT, we have opportunities to move up that high. I don’t think we win them all, but if we did is our resume really appreciably different than last year’s team? I think it’s pretty comparable right now to this point last year. We didn’t beat anyone very good early. Just a Duke team that turned out to be very average.
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If we were to win out or one loss, our resume would be similar to last year. Difference is the big 10 isn’t as highly though of as last years Michigan and OSU teams giving us those top 5 wins. I think maybe a 1 but likely a two
 
#184      

Piotyr

P
Piotyr
BWA said:
If we were to win out or one loss, our resume would be similar to last year. Difference is the big 10 isn’t as highly though of as last years Michigan and OSU teams giving us those top 5 wins. I think maybe a 1 but likely a two
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Fun fact, through 22 games, this year's team has performed a game better than last year's team (keep in mind, there was a shortened preseason, so their 22nd game was the MSU loss). Last year's team won out from that point, though.
 
#185      

Piotyr

P
Piotyr
A quick bracket exercise based on https://barttorvik.com/trank.php# :

Given the overall volatility between some teams' efficiency metrics and results metrics, I ran each team's average place between Torvik's ratings (efficiency) and the Wins Above Bubble metric (results), and ranked the results into a kind of bracket.

Here would be the resulting bracket (* = auto bid/highest ranked team from their conference):

1 seeds: Purdue*, Kansas*, Auburn*, Arizona*
2 seeds: Gonzaga*, Duke*, Baylor, Houston*
3 seeds: Kentucky, Texas Tech, Villanova*, UCLA
4 seeds: Wisconsin, Illinois, Tennessee, Providence
5 seeds: Michigan State, St. Mary's, LSU, Texas
6 seeds: Marquette, Iowa State, Ohio State, Xavier
7 seeds: San Francisco, Indiana, Alabama, Boise State*
8 seeds: Wake Forest, TCU, Arkansas, USC
9 seeds: Murray State*, Iowa, Connecticut, North Carolina
10 seeds: Wyoming, Loyola IL*, North Texas*, San Diego State
11 seeds: Colorado State, Davidson*, Fresno State, St. Louis
12 seeds: Oregon, Iona*
Last 4 in (12 seeds): Florida, BYU, Belmont, Seton Hall
First 4 out: Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Michigan, Mississippi State
Next 4 out: SMU, UAB, Miami FL, West Virginia

Overall, seems about fair as an evaluation of where teams are at if the tourney were seeded today. Gonzaga doesn't have the results metrics right now to hit the top 4, and I would anticipate if those 4 teams run the table, the bracket might actually shake out like that (they won't, so it won't, and Gonzaga running the table would give them a 1 seed, deservedly).

Illinois is right behind a cluster of very good teams, but should keep improving their status as they keep winning (they are 13th in efficiency and 13th in results now, just behind Wisconsin who is 4th in results).

Few surprising things: WCC and MWC have several at-large worthy teams, and I for one would be fine seeing 4 teams from each conference instead of a 10th SEC team or whatever have you. This bracket would be 7 B1G teams, 7 SEC, 6 Big 12, 6 Big East, 5 MWC, 4 Pac 12, 4 WCC, 3 ACC, and 2 OVC teams (Belmont has no bad losses and 3 Q2 wins, and Murray State is 3-1 in Q1/Q2 games).

Michigan does not have the results right now (73rd in result profile), and Iowa is also staying afloat with efficiency, and could stand to improve their B1G standing if they want to feel safe with a bid.
 
#186      

PassingBy

P
PassingBy
Piotyr said:
A quick bracket exercise based on https://barttorvik.com/trank.php# :

Given the overall volatility between some teams' efficiency metrics and results metrics, I ran each team's average place between Torvik's ratings (efficiency) and the Wins Above Bubble metric (results), and ranked the results into a kind of bracket.

Here would be the resulting bracket (* = auto bid/highest ranked team from their conference):

1 seeds: Purdue*, Kansas*, Auburn*, Arizona*
2 seeds: Gonzaga*, Duke*, Baylor, Houston*
3 seeds: Kentucky, Texas Tech, Villanova*, UCLA
4 seeds: Wisconsin, Illinois, Tennessee, Providence
5 seeds: Michigan State, St. Mary's, LSU, Texas
6 seeds: Marquette, Iowa State, Ohio State, Xavier
7 seeds: San Francisco, Indiana, Alabama, Boise State*
8 seeds: Wake Forest, TCU, Arkansas, USC
9 seeds: Murray State*, Iowa, Connecticut, North Carolina
10 seeds: Wyoming, Loyola IL*, North Texas*, San Diego State
11 seeds: Colorado State, Davidson*, Fresno State, St. Louis
12 seeds: Oregon, Iona*
Last 4 in (12 seeds): Florida, BYU, Belmont, Seton Hall
First 4 out: Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Michigan, Mississippi State
Next 4 out: SMU, UAB, Miami FL, West Virginia

Overall, seems about fair as an evaluation of where teams are at if the tourney were seeded today. Gonzaga doesn't have the results metrics right now to hit the top 4, and I would anticipate if those 4 teams run the table, the bracket might actually shake out like that (they won't, so it won't, and Gonzaga running the table would give them a 1 seed, deservedly).

Illinois is right behind a cluster of very good teams, but should keep improving their status as they keep winning (they are 13th in efficiency and 13th in results now, just behind Wisconsin who is 4th in results).

Few surprising things: WCC and MWC have several at-large worthy teams, and I for one would be fine seeing 4 teams from each conference instead of a 10th SEC team or whatever have you. This bracket would be 7 B1G teams, 7 SEC, 6 Big 12, 6 Big East, 5 MWC, 4 Pac 12, 4 WCC, 3 ACC, and 2 OVC teams (Belmont has no bad losses and 3 Q2 wins, and Murray State is 3-1 in Q1/Q2 games).

Michigan does not have the results right now (73rd in result profile), and Iowa is also staying afloat with efficiency, and could stand to improve their B1G standing if they want to feel safe with a bid.
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Seems to me this is pretty close to a repeat of last year, when we "came from behind" to be ranked #2 overall

While it is exciting to follow participate and speculate in such rankings ranking, we need to keep in mind 48% of the B1G games are still TBD. Then there is the brutal B1G tourney. As an example, I very much doubt IN makes the MM IF they do not win at NW next week.

I think IL has a FAR better chance of upending those rakings. Assuming a healthy team, fully expect a #1/2 seeding. And, if we come in #2 in the B1G , but win the tourney - we get #1 seed. Doable
 
#187      

Piotyr

P
Piotyr
PassingBy said:
Seems to me this is pretty close to a repeat of last year, when we "came from behind" to be ranked #2 overall

While it is exciting to follow participate and speculate in such rankings ranking, we need to keep in mind 48% of the B1G games are still TBD. Then there is the brutal B1G tourney. As an example, I very much doubt IN makes the MM IF they do not win at NW next week.

I think IL has a FAR better chance of upending those rakings. Assuming a healthy team, fully expect a #1/2 seeding. And, if we come in #2 in the B1G , but win the tourney - we get #1 seed. Doable
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Oh, I know, things can and will change daily. This was more of a look at a snapshot of the bracket as of today. Even now, Kentucky won at Alabama to improve their position and hurt Bama's spot, and Gonzaga is pasting BYU in Provo, effectively killing BYU's at large chances.
 
#190      

220Illini

2
220Illini
Just thinking about the atmosphere for a Sweet 16 / Elite 8 game at the United Center… would be an absolute madhouse. I want to avoid Purdue or Arizona as the 1 seed in our region. I think we match up very well with Auburn and would beat them
 
#191      

jrichisamazing

J
jrichisamazing
IllGuardU said:
Can someone explain to me why Villanova with 6 quad 1 losses is ahead of Auburn with 1? Not in favor of anything that helps Auburn, by the way.
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Good losses don't hurt you too much in the advanced stats. You also have to remember 2 quad 1 wins are not equal. Beating the #5 team in the country is still a lot better than beating the #40 team in the country. Quad records are just a convenient way to compare teams quickly, but it never tells the whole story.
 
#192      

The Galloping Ghost

The Galloping Ghost
Washington, DC
The Galloping Ghost
Dan said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1490339508658839554

www.ncaa.com

DI Men's Basketball Rankings - NCAA Men's Basketball NET Rankings | NCAA.com

Get NCAA college basketball rankings from the Associated Press, USA Today Coaches poll and the NCAA NET Rankings.
www.ncaa.com www.ncaa.com
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This also pushes our home game against Northwestern from a Q3 to a Q2. A little insurance in case we lay an egg against them that it won't be a bad loss (like UCLA suffered last night). For the remainder of the regular season, we have 5 Q1, 2 Q2, and only 1 Q3 (Penn State at home). That's a ton of chances to keep building our resume to get a higher seed and only one opportunity to really hurt ourselves.
 
#193      

IllGuardU

I
IllGuardU
jrichisamazing said:
Good losses don't hurt you too much in the advanced stats. You also have to remember 2 quad 1 wins are not equal. Beating the #5 team in the country is still a lot better than beating the #40 team in the country. Quad records are just a convenient way to compare teams quickly, but it never tells the whole story.
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Thanks
 
#196      

jrichisamazing

J
jrichisamazing
Does anyone know exactly how the committee determines who plays where? Or how hard/easy it is to predict where we would play. I know it's impossible right now, but I'm just trying to think ahead.

I'm thinking about snagging some first/second round tickets right before the bracket is announced because I know prices can skyrocket if a big team is playing close to home. For example, if Illinois and Purdue both played in Indy, I could see easily see those tickets doubling in price. Thinking about snagging a couple tickets before hand, and if we end up not playing there I would still be happy to go if the games are intriguing or sell them.
 
#197      

derrick6

D
Illini Dawg
Seattle
derrick6
jrichisamazing said:
Does anyone know exactly how the committee determines who plays where? Or how hard/easy it is to predict where we would play. I know it's impossible right now, but I'm just trying to think ahead.

I'm thinking about snagging some first/second round tickets right before the bracket is announced because I know prices can skyrocket if a big team is playing close to home. For example, if Illinois and Purdue both played in Indy, I could see easily see those tickets doubling in price. Thinking about snagging a couple tickets before hand, and if we end up not playing there I would still be happy to go if the games are intriguing or sell them.
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I believe it’s affinity based on your ranking among your seeding. The best seed gets their closest home. Next seed gets next closest. Etc.
 
#198      

Epsilon

Epsilon
M tipping over
Pdx
Epsilon
#199      

DeonThomas

DeonThomas
South Carolina
DeonThomas
Speculating that we'll land anywhere from 12th - 15th this week across the AP, Coach's, NET and KenPom rankings.......with a chance to be inside the Top 10 in another eight days from now, if all goes according to plan.
 
#200      

lstewart53x3

lstewart53x3
Scottsdale, Arizona
lstewart53x3
New Creation said:
this makes no sense to me either..
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Technically Villanova is not “ranked” ahead of Auburn in the NET as the NET is not used for rankings.

The committee does not use your net ranking in their evaluation of your possible seeding. Instead, they look at the net ranking of the teams you beat and lost to.

That being said, Auburn is “ranked” 6 in KenPom, even though they have just one loss because advanced metrics like KenPom & Net look at more than just wins and losses, but also how you played in those games.

Advanced metrics are useful, but humans monitoring actual wins and losses is useful too.
 
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