1/31 Polls & Bracketology - Illinois #18 in AP Poll

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#127      

ugottabjoshinme

ugottabjoshinme
ugottabjoshinme
OskeeWowWow2012 said:
Looking at the NET.....why is Wisconsin ranked lower than us? I'm not mad about it of course, but just curious when they seem to have a better quad wins/losses record than us? Does it have to do with the size of the loss? I've heard that it matters if someone wins/loses by less than 10 vs more than 10. Is this true?

Also seems very weird that LSU is higher in the NET than Wisconsin. LSU is 4-4 in Q1, 4-1 in Q2 and 4-1 in Q3. Wisconsin is 7-4 in Q1 with no Q2,Q3 or Q4 losses.

(long post short - what else do they use to calculate NET?)
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I think efficiency and margin of victory play too large of a role in NET. Houston is number 2 in net and they are 0-2 in Quad 1 games, and 4-0 in Q2 games. So they don't have a great win, and their strength of schedule can't be that high because they have only had 8 Q1/Q2 chances.

Having said that, all the advanced metrics (kenpom, torvik, etc) also love Houston, largely for the same reasons.
 
#128      

Piotyr

P
Piotyr
Performance-based metrics like NET, KPI, BPI, and Torvik are a better indicator of how good a team is, while results-based metrics like WAB and SOR are a better indicator of what a team has accomplished in the season.

The committee uses both metrics to determine what teams get in and where to place them in the bracket.

For example, Wisconsin has a Torvik rating that places them 22nd in the country (6 seed), but a WAB rating that places them 4th (1 seed). Averaging the metrics puts them at about a 4 seed.

Gonzaga is kind of the opposite, a Torvik rating of 1st (1 seed) and a WAB of 13th (4 seed). I'd expect them to still be a 1 seed, but if they do slip up at all and some of the major conference teams can dominate their conferences (Auburn, Baylor/Kansas, Purdue, Arizona/UCLA), they could slip despite being the overall best team. Even now they're probably not the #1 overall seed (I'd give Auburn that nod).
 
#129      

sacraig

sacraig
The desert
sacraig
Piotyr said:
Performance-based metrics like NET, KPI, BPI, and Torvik are a better indicator of how good a team is, while results-based metrics like WAB and SOR are a better indicator of what a team has accomplished in the season.

The committee uses both metrics to determine what teams get in and where to place them in the bracket.

For example, Wisconsin has a Torvik rating that places them 22nd in the country (6 seed), but a WAB rating that places them 4th (1 seed). Averaging the metrics puts them at about a 4 seed.

Gonzaga is kind of the opposite, a Torvik rating of 1st (1 seed) and a WAB of 13th (4 seed). I'd expect them to still be a 1 seed, but if they do slip up at all and some of the major conference teams can dominate their conferences (Auburn, Baylor/Kansas, Purdue, Arizona/UCLA), they could slip despite being the overall best team. Even now they're probably not the #1 overall seed (I'd give Auburn that nod).
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The interesting thing about us is that our efficiency-based metrics like KenPom and Torvik have overvalued us compared to the traditional polls (though they are starting to converge). But even the efficiency metrics don't really tell the whole story. We have played so much of the season at under full strength that we will have a lot of unanswered questions come tournament time. Our efficiency to date likely does not reflect the true potential of this team.

Of course the team will still have to jell once it is truly at full strength, which is not guaranteed to be complete or fast.
 
#130      

Piotyr

P
Piotyr
sacraig said:
The interesting thing about us is that our efficiency-based metrics like KenPom and Torvik have overvalued us compared to the traditional polls (though they are starting to converge). But even the efficiency metrics don't really tell the whole story. We have played so much of the season at under full strength that we will have a lot of unanswered questions come tournament time. Our efficiency to date likely does not reflect the true potential of this team.

Of course the team will still have to jell once it is truly at full strength, which is not guaranteed to be complete or fast.
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Illinois is going to be a tough team to evaluate, since their best win (vs MSU) was without either Kofi or Curbelo, and their worst loss (Cincinnati) was when both were playing (though Curbelo was definitely not healthy).

They need some extended time with everyone healthy to get a fair evaluation of what kind of team they are with everyone healthy and playing together.
 
#131      

Calillini

Calillini
Now appearing in Tampa
Calillini
Piotyr said:
Performance-based metrics like NET, KPI, BPI, and Torvik are a better indicator of how good a team is, while results-based metrics like WAB and SOR are a better indicator of what a team has accomplished in the season.

The committee uses both metrics to determine what teams get in and where to place them in the bracket.

For example, Wisconsin has a Torvik rating that places them 22nd in the country (6 seed), but a WAB rating that places them 4th (1 seed). Averaging the metrics puts them at about a 4 seed.

Gonzaga is kind of the opposite, a Torvik rating of 1st (1 seed) and a WAB of 13th (4 seed). I'd expect them to still be a 1 seed, but if they do slip up at all and some of the major conference teams can dominate their conferences (Auburn, Baylor/Kansas, Purdue, Arizona/UCLA), they could slip despite being the overall best team. Even now they're probably not the #1 overall seed (I'd give Auburn that nod).
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Still gets my undies in a bunch that Gonzaga plays in such a cupcake conference, they don’t get beat up physically like BIG teams do,18 times per season.
 
#132      

Piotyr

P
Piotyr
Calillini said:
Still gets my undies in a bunch that Gonzaga plays in such a cupcake conference, they don’t get beat up physically like BIG teams do,18 times per season.
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To the WCC's credit, this season they're effectively on par with the American and MWC conferences, and better than the A-10. They're likely to get 3-4 at large teams, so they're half decent. Half not decent, of course, but not every night is a night off for Gonzaga.

Gonzaga and Houston are in the same boat this season. Dominant teams in less than dominant conferences, needing to dominate every night to keep up their case for a 1 seed. Unlikely that both will secure 1 seeds unless every major conference beats themselves up.
 
#133      

JFGsCoffeeMug

JFGsCoffeeMug
BU:1 Trash cans:0
Chicago
JFGsCoffeeMug
Calillini said:
Still gets my undies in a bunch that Gonzaga plays in such a cupcake conference, they don’t get beat up physically like BIG teams do,18 times per season.
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Zags have only played one true road game so far this season (and 5 neutral site games). Tonight will be their second.
 
#134      

Turpin & Tate in 2008!

Turpin & Tate in 2008!
Addison, IL
Turpin & Tate in 2008!
Piotyr said:
Performance-based metrics like NET, KPI, BPI, and Torvik are a better indicator of how good a team is, while results-based metrics like WAB and SOR are a better indicator of what a team has accomplished in the season.

The committee uses both metrics to determine what teams get in and where to place them in the bracket.

For example, Wisconsin has a Torvik rating that places them 22nd in the country (6 seed), but a WAB rating that places them 4th (1 seed). Averaging the metrics puts them at about a 4 seed.

Gonzaga is kind of the opposite, a Torvik rating of 1st (1 seed) and a WAB of 13th (4 seed). I'd expect them to still be a 1 seed, but if they do slip up at all and some of the major conference teams can dominate their conferences (Auburn, Baylor/Kansas, Purdue, Arizona/UCLA, ILLINOIS), they could slip despite being the overall best team. Even now they're probably not the #1 overall seed (I'd give Auburn that nod).
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FIFY
 
#135      

Manual3for4peat

M
Manual3for4peat
the juiceman cometh said:
This is why I liked it more when the conference was small enough to play everyone twice!
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I have a crazy thought. Why can’t they play everyone the first time, see where teams are, then make sure the good teams play each other a second time.

Why do we need to play northwestern again? Wouldn’t a second game with Wisconsin be more important to the conference?
 
#138      

jumpingjack

J
jumpingjack
Manual3for4peat said:
I have a crazy thought. Why can’t they play everyone the first time, see where teams are, then make sure the good teams play each other a second time.

Why do we need to play northwestern again? Wouldn’t a second game with Wisconsin be more important to the conference?
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Seth Meyers Question GIF by Late Night with Seth Meyers
 
#139      

alaskaillini

A
alaskaillini
Piotyr said:
Performance-based metrics like NET, KPI, BPI, and Torvik are a better indicator of how good a team is, while results-based metrics like WAB and SOR are a better indicator of what a team has accomplished in the season.

The committee uses both metrics to determine what teams get in and where to place them in the bracket.

For example, Wisconsin has a Torvik rating that places them 22nd in the country (6 seed), but a WAB rating that places them 4th (1 seed). Averaging the metrics puts them at about a 4 seed.

Gonzaga is kind of the opposite, a Torvik rating of 1st (1 seed) and a WAB of 13th (4 seed). I'd expect them to still be a 1 seed, but if they do slip up at all and some of the major conference teams can dominate their conferences (Auburn, Baylor/Kansas, Purdue, Arizona/UCLA), they could slip despite being the overall best team. Even now they're probably not the #1 overall seed (I'd give Auburn that nod).
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Piotyr, you have really jumped the shark. First, you have Purdue and not Illinois as dominating the B1G. But then you give Auburn the #1 seed.


Ok, I've calmed back down.


If there was an IL re-education center, you would be in it.
 
#140      

Piotyr

P
Piotyr
alaskaillini said:
Piotyr, you have really jumped the shark. First, you have Purdue and not Illinois as dominating the B1G. But then you give Auburn the #1 seed.


Ok, I've calmed back down.


If there was an IL re-education center, you would be in it.
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In Illini land, Illinois wins 6 tournament games against Miami, Kansas, Houston, Kentucky, Purdue and Auburn to win the title.
 
#141      

Manual3for4peat

M
Manual3for4peat
jumpingjack said:
Seth Meyers Question GIF by Late Night with Seth Meyers
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Lol. I worded this poorly. I just wonder with the War they’ve adapted schedules because of covid. Im shocked they don’t play a round and then make sure the top teams get each other twice. So the second half of the schedule could be influx. Maybe it isn’t possible. Lol
 
#142      

IlliniKat91

IlliniKat91
Chicago, IL
IlliniKat91
Manual3for4peat said:
Lol. I worded this poorly. I just wonder with the War they’ve adapted schedules because of covid. Im shocked they don’t play a round and then make sure the top teams get each other twice. So the second half of the schedule could be influx. Maybe it isn’t possible. Lol
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It's an interesting idea, but television wouldn't allow for it. They want to know the match ups to promote to get the most eyeballs/money.

The schools also need to have things set far in advance so they can handle travel and accommodations. They tend to travel with a lot of stuff, so the last minute change for the second half of the schedule would be a nightmare
 
#143      

DeonThomas

DeonThomas
South Carolina
DeonThomas
danielb927 said:
Torvik’s page has everything my charts used to, plus it’s always up to date and based on his own ratings system. I never put in the time to automate things that well, glad he did though — it’s a really cool site!
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Torvik's chart turns upside down at the top when we win in West Lafayette next Tuesday!
 
#144      

doowink

D
doowink
Manual3for4peat said:
I have a crazy thought. Why can’t they play everyone the first time, see where teams are, then make sure the good teams play each other a second time.

Why do we need to play northwestern again? Wouldn’t a second game with Wisconsin be more important to the conference?
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You're absolutely right .......that's a crazy thought!
 
#145      

lstewart53x3

lstewart53x3
Scottsdale, Arizona
lstewart53x3
If we win Saturday, where do you think we’ll be ranked come Monday? My guess is 13.

If we lose, my guess is we stay right around 18 again.
 
#146      

skyIdub

skyIdub
Winged Warrior
skyIdub
Manual3for4peat said:
Lol. I worded this poorly. I just wonder with the War they’ve adapted schedules because of covid. Im shocked they don’t play a round and then make sure the top teams get each other twice. So the second half of the schedule could be influx. Maybe it isn’t possible. Lol
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Was there a draft?

25e36f09-9666-4cb4-9623-6b2880472cb7_text.gif
 
#148      

sacraig

sacraig
The desert
sacraig
Lunardi bumped us up to a 4 seed. I still think we are going to end up a 3 in the end, but 4 seems about right based on the current body of work. I can't believe I just posted a Lunardi article without whining about it.

www.espn.com

Men's Bracketology: Duke plus Cooper Flagg makes Blue Devils early overall No. 1

Bracketology begins the off season projections with a familiar name at the top. Duke, led by generational recruit Cooper Flagg, starts our 2024-25 bracket cycle on top.
www.espn.com
 
#149      

the juiceman cometh

T
the juiceman cometh
sacraig said:
Lunardi bumped us up to a 4 seed. I still think we are going to end up a 3 in the end, but 4 seems about right based on the current body of work. I can't believe I just posted a Lunardi article without whining about it.

www.espn.com

Men's Bracketology: Duke plus Cooper Flagg makes Blue Devils early overall No. 1

Bracketology begins the off season projections with a familiar name at the top. Duke, led by generational recruit Cooper Flagg, starts our 2024-25 bracket cycle on top.
www.espn.com
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Don't worry, I'm sure there's someone on this board that'll be more than willing to pick up your slack.
 
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