2/28 Weekday Games
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danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Anyone who's been playing with the B1G tourney simulator page - who do we want to win this week?
There is at least one path still available to a double bye, no matter how slim the odds are. However, the likely outcome is in the 7-10 range. I didn't bother t o look to see if we can drop into the bottom 4, but that's probably a more likely outcome.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
We can definitely still drop to the bottom 4 if we lose out and finish 10-10, unfortunately. I think it would require:
1. We lose out
2. PSU wins out
3. Wisconsin wins out
4. Iowa and Michigan State each win at least 1 game, with at least one of those wins coming against Nebraska
If all four happen it would create a 3-team tie for 9th. It's a funny circular tiebreaker where we beat Wisconsin twice, they beat PSU twice, and PSU beat us twice. Wisconsin would get the #9 spot via their win over Purdue, and PSU is better than us against any 2nd place team or group that I could find.
Edit: nope, I missed some things, updated #4.
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I'm less concerned about B10 seeding than NET records. Rutgers and MSU are 31 and 32 in NET, respectively. We're currently 3-9 in Q1. If both can get into the top 30, our record becomes 5-9, which looks a lot better.
Rutgers' remaining games are at Minnesota and vs. Northwestern. Minnesota's results are essentially irrelevant because they're 237. Northwestern is 41, which means they're less likely than Rutgers to get in the top 30, but also far enough from 75 that our road loss isn't likely to become Q2. So I'm pretty sure we want Rutgers to win out.
MSU's remaining games are at Nebraska and vs. OSU. Similar to Minnesota, Nebraska is low enough (92) that their results don't really matter. OSU is a bit more tricky. They're 63, and if they fall below 75, our loss at their place will become Q2. Even so, I think we want to root for MSU in this one because Q1 wins are important. To balance it out, we probably want to root for OSU over Maryland (played at OSU); Maryland is high enough (21) that our road loss shouldn't become Q2. Also, Maryland losing helps our B10 seeding.
Otherwise, we want Missouri to stay in the top 50, and both PSU and Wisconsin to stay in the top 75. Missouri is 49; if they fall below 50, our loss becomes Q2. PSU is 59; if they fall below 75, our road loss becomes Q2 and our home loss becomes Q3. Wisconsin is currently at 72; if they fall below 75, our road win becomes Q2 and our home win becomes Q3.
Rutgers' remaining games are at Minnesota and vs. Northwestern. Minnesota's results are essentially irrelevant because they're 237. Northwestern is 41, which means they're less likely than Rutgers to get in the top 30, but also far enough from 75 that our road loss isn't likely to become Q2. So I'm pretty sure we want Rutgers to win out.
MSU's remaining games are at Nebraska and vs. OSU. Similar to Minnesota, Nebraska is low enough (92) that their results don't really matter. OSU is a bit more tricky. They're 63, and if they fall below 75, our loss at their place will become Q2. Even so, I think we want to root for MSU in this one because Q1 wins are important. To balance it out, we probably want to root for OSU over Maryland (played at OSU); Maryland is high enough (21) that our road loss shouldn't become Q2. Also, Maryland losing helps our B10 seeding.
Otherwise, we want Missouri to stay in the top 50, and both PSU and Wisconsin to stay in the top 75. Missouri is 49; if they fall below 50, our loss becomes Q2. PSU is 59; if they fall below 75, our road loss becomes Q2 and our home loss becomes Q3. Wisconsin is currently at 72; if they fall below 75, our road win becomes Q2 and our home win becomes Q3.
Goillinikobd
- Southeastern US
Has it ever been this convoluted. What happens next year when we add two more teams. We are creeping toward a field of 64 for the BTT
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
I agree with this, nice analysis. The tiebreakers are fun to think about because they're deterministic, and supposedly the committee doesn't go entirely by quad (e.g., they'd view a low Q1 win and a high Q2 win close to the same) - but still, look at the team sheet and you can't ignore the separation of those columns completely.
So to summarize it in a rooting guide for this week:
Today
- Indiana over Iowa (better for BTT tiebreakers, minimal NET-related impact)
- MSU over Nebraska
Tomorrow
- OSU over Maryland
- PSU over Northwestern (props up our worst loss)
Thursday
- Rutgers over MN
- Wisconsin over Purdue
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Iowa putting a whopping on Indiana so far. Perkins is carving them up
Glad to hear we are not his only favorite to go off on.
squawks up by 10 at the half on the road. Very encouraging.
Goillinikobd
- Southeastern US
21 at 15 minute mark
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Wow, what a crazy year. Iowa win and Illini win Thursday make the standings look nuts, haha.
Iowa IU game is reinforcing my nihilistic belief about CBB this year. Nothing means anything. Including our loss at OSU. All about who plays better on a given day. Why can’t it be us?
Iowa might get to 100 again
Indiana looks worst than we do in 1st halves. IU would be closer if they left 2 back on offense and let Iowa to score layups. Oooof, talk about bad
Iowa is probably more frustrating for their fans than us. How can you go from losing to EIU to be beating IU at IU by 20. They are a team that will either win or lose by 20. Depends if they play defense and if their 3 goes down
the national
- the Front Range
This is an old fashion whippin’
IU is shooting the 3 worst than us
Did Caitlin Clark suit up for the Iowa men tonight?
Perkins now has 19 ,8 and 8.
I dislike Iowa but like watching them torch IU.
I dislike Iowa but like watching them torch IU.
Her name is Sanfort. He makes a 3 in the last minute and blows a kiss to the IU crowd. Gets T-Ed up for taunting. What d-bag.
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