2017 Coaching Carousel

mhuml32 said:

This requires pinching your nose and ignoring the strong correlation between recruiting success and team performance, possibly because our current coach is "beating" the expectations.

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True, but I guess my overarching belief is that Illinois, if managed competently, is going to get a caliber of talent that, if well-coached, is capable of significantly better results than what we've seen post-Dee.

And once you're a winning, well-coached major conference team, great players tend to find you. Whether that means an NBA one-and-done guy, or a Top 50 guy who develops into a star over multiple years in your system, or a diamond in the rough like Frank Kaminsky who your scouting and knowledge of the system leads you to.

I see the big advantage of the Illinois job not as the lottery ticket shot at the Derrick Rose's the state occasionally produces, but as the wealth of solid major conference guys available in-state and the immediate surrounding area. Get a terrific coach who knows how to scout and develop those guys and you're golden.

golferjohn1970 said:

I think if JW hires Martin he will end up firing him in 3-4 years after he learns much like Groce he can't coach!! This guy has two 1st round NBA players and the best he can do last year is a 1st round exit and 23-11 record and they aren't that much better this year? He was mediocre at Tennessee as well only went to the dance once. He just reminds me too much of Groce only he can recruit but much like Groce he fails at coaching. I'd take Musselman and Keatts over Martin for sure.

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The first round loss in the NCAAs last year to Hawaii should be taken with a grain of salt. The starting point guard and shooting guard who was also the leading scorer got injured in practice leading up to the game and didn't play. Also Jaylen Brown fouled out in like 10 minutes of playing time so the team on the floor was a fraction of what got them the 4 seed in the regular season.

coryfor3 said:

Northwestern is 16-4 and likely going to the tournament with a roster of guys all ranked for the most part in the 200 range with the exception of Vic Law and Barrett Benson and Benson isn't playing that much. The recruiting is not an issue for Groce. He seems to do ok there. The complete lack of competitiveness is disturbing. Either there is no motivation or there is a problem in game planning.

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The recruiting is a major issue for Groce. Stop with the assumption that some other coach would have these guys near the top of the big ten. Just because some kid was ranked #50 in the country when he signed doesn't mean that the coach failed if he turns out to not be able to play at this level. It's nonsense. im not saying that Groce is a wizard with the clipboard but cmon this problem starts with talent evaluation and recruiting. Most thought DJ Williams was going to break out this year. I was telling everyone who I would listen a year ago that he just isn't good enough at basketball. At the end of the day Groce needs to go no matter the reason I am just afraid that the new coaches expectations will be grossly unrealistic. The cupboard is bare.

illinifan3923 said:

The first round loss in the NCAAs last year to Hawaii should be taken with a grain of salt. The starting point guard and shooting guard who was also the leading scorer got injured in practice leading up to the game and didn't play. Also Jaylen Brown fouled out in like 10 minutes of playing time so the team on the floor was a fraction of what got them the 4 seed in the regular season.

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On the flip side, the 4 seed was probably a little generous. They were a 5 on the Bracket Matrix, the equivalent of a 6 per the AP rankings and the equivalent of a 7 per KenPom.

Illinoise said:

The recruiting is a major issue for Groce. Stop with the assumption that some other coach would have these guys near the top of the big ten. Just because some kid was ranked #50 in the country when he signed doesn't mean that the coach failed if he turns out to not be able to play at this level. It's nonsense. im not saying that Groce is a wizard with the clipboard but cmon this problem starts with talent evaluation and recruiting. Most thought DJ Williams was going to break out this year. I was telling everyone who I would listen a year ago that he just isn't good enough at basketball. At the end of the day Groce needs to go no matter the reason I am just afraid that the new coaches expectations will be grossly unrealistic. The cupboard is bare.

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Nope nope nope.

"Near the top of the conference"? Maybe not. Competitive? Certainly.

Come hell or high water, we in this thread are going to strangle this "John Groce didn't have any talent" myth in its crib.

Last year's Cal team was also 18-0 at home, 5-11 away from home.

Second and Chalmers said:

Last year's Cal team was also 18-0 at home, 5-11 away from home.

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If only we could experience this kind of success!

mattcoldagelli said:

Nope nope nope.

"Near the top of the conference"? Maybe not. Competitive? Certainly.

Come hell or high water, we in this thread are going to strangle this "John Groce didn't have any talent" myth in its crib.

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Maybe not the top of the conference? I'll have what he's having. I can't wait to see what the group think is going to be next year about what the new coach is going to be able to do.
Groce took an Ohio team to the tourney twice and won more games in the tourney there than he has here. Do you think he forgot how to motivate or coach. I would definitely rather be recruiting kids in the top 100 nationally but they aren't always good. This fallacy, that because we're Illinois and look at the recruiting rankings, our players must be talented, is wildly flawed.

Illinoise said:

The recruiting is a major issue for Groce. Stop with the assumption that some other coach would have these guys near the top of the big ten. Just because some kid was ranked #50 in the country when he signed doesn't mean that the coach failed if he turns out to not be able to play at this level. It's nonsense. im not saying that Groce is a wizard with the clipboard but cmon this problem starts with talent evaluation and recruiting. Most thought DJ Williams was going to break out this year. I was telling everyone who I would listen a year ago that he just isn't good enough at basketball. At the end of the day Groce needs to go no matter the reason I am just afraid that the new coaches expectations will be grossly unrealistic. The cupboard is bare.

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I think if you run an offensive system that is predicated on having superior talent and then don't acquire it you need to adjust. I think this team is well suited to Bo Ryan's swing offense. Bigs that can shoot, bigger bodies wings, general lack of quickness, etc. I think Bo would have us 4-3 in conference play at worst and at least one more win (Wintrop) outside of the Big Ten. There is a good amount of individual talent here- cupboard is definitely not bare.

LurkLongandProsper said:

In Cuonzo v Keatts, the thing that stands out to me is their tenures at Missouri State and UNCW. Not entirely dissimilar jobs IMO -- feel free to dispute this, but very dissimilar accomplishments for the two coaches.

Keatts: 62-24 (34-10), T-1st 2/2 years and 8-0 in conf to start this year, and NCAA tournament appearance year 2 (likely another this year)

Martin: 61-41 (26-28!), 10th/7th/1st in conference, no NCAAs.

In Martin's case, we know he can translate to a P5, but have yet to see any high level success there. Keatts is an unknown, but his resume at his existing stops has been excellent. It just boils down to if you want the safer choice or not. Personally, I'm more prone to take the risk.

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It's been less than a year but there's a guy leading the athletic department right now that sounds an awful lot like that description and things seem to be going in the right direction. Mark me down in the Keatts camp.

Illinoise said:

Maybe not the top of the conference? I'll have what he's having. I can't wait to see what the group think is going to be next year about what the new coach is going to be able to do.
Groce took an Ohio team to the tourney twice and won more games in the tourney there than he has here. Do you think he forgot how to motivate or coach. I would definitely rather be recruiting kids in the top 100 nationally but they aren't always good. This fallacy, that because we're Illinois and look at the recruiting rankings, our players must be talented, is wildly flawed.

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I actually just posted a related comment in the "what would you do?" thread. I think the problem is that in conference games 23% of the minutes are played by players with an Efficiency rating of 11 or less, and 30% for the whole season.

For comparison purposes we have 4 players with higher efficiency ratings than the highest rated player in 2012 (DJ). Yet in 2012 less than 3% of the minutes were played by players with a rating less than 11.

For reference, according to the Hollinger ratings a PER less than 11 = "Fringe Roster Player"

We have the talent on the roster, we just aren't giving those players the minutes.

Illinoise said:

Maybe not the top of the conference? I'll have what he's having. I can't wait to see what the group think is going to be next year about what the new coach is going to be able to do.
Groce took an Ohio team to the tourney twice and won more games in the tourney there than he has here. Do you think he forgot how to motivate or coach. I would definitely rather be recruiting kids in the top 100 nationally but they aren't always good. This fallacy, that because we're Illinois and look at the recruiting rankings, our players must be talented, is wildly flawed.

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Tell me more about flawed fallacies, guy saying "this coach stole a bid by winning a conference tournament seven years ago, then won games against a 5-seed and a 12-seed five years ago and therefore cannot be the problem."

I think maybe people are being too quick to dismiss Cuonzo Martin as a guy who could get better as a coach. It seems the consensus is "he is what he is" Avg coach good recruiter.

Tony Bennett wasn't always as successful as we see today. His first 6 years at a power 5 school:

Finished 2nd, 3rd, 7th, 9th, 7th and 4th in conference.

.622 wining percentage with 3 wins in 3 NCAA appearance including Sweet 16.


Cuonzo Martin first 5.5 years at Power 5 school

Finished:

2nd, 5th, 4th, 8th, 3rd and are currently 5th

.617 winning percentage with 2 wins in 2 NCAA appearances including Sweet 16.

Now I realize this isn't total apples to apples with Cuonzo being able to cut his teeth at Missouri St, but Bennett had a really strong internship with his Dad with a lot of on the job training. I realize this guarantees nothing regarding Martin. Bennett got better. SUBSTANTIALLY BETTER. Just saying it's a tad early to write the final chapter on Martin's coaching ability.

mattcoldagelli said:

Tell me more about flawed fallacies, guy saying "this coach stole a bid by winning a conference tournament seven years ago, then won games against a 5-seed and a 12-seed five years ago and therefore cannot be the problem."

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I said that? Don't recall that one. The coach is a problem, we just differ in what that problem is. Let me ask you this, assuming we get a new coach and keep all the incoming recruits what do you think a reasonable expectation is for the teams record next year.

Just wondering. How serious is the concern about the 2017 recruiting class leaving if JG gets fired? Would a group of 17 and 18 year old weld that much influence? Could JW go talk to them before he makes a decision? One last thing, could Coach Lovie Smith help recruit a top notch basketball coach?

CoalCity said:

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It's been less than a year but there's a guy leading the athletic department right now that sounds an awful lot like that description and things seem to be going in the right direction. Mark me down in the Keatts camp.

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Count me on the Keats Bandwagon

I dunno. I still think Martin is an extremely safe pick right now but doubt his ceiling, but he did well at Mo. St. where CIT and NIT tourney appearances (Champions of the former) are pretty good accomplishments, especially after taking over a mess.

Then achieving success at a Tennessee program that Pearl made completely unattractive in every way (despite retaining some of Pearl's acquired talent) and having a S16 there is really notable.

At Cal there are miserable resources, but in a conference that may be stronger at the top than the BIG, he's having a better year with more young talent than we have at Illinois.

In short I think if we can't get a Dream catch (Bennett, Miller, etc) I'd be good with a Martin hire, but looking at Keatts/Mussleman has me just as excited as him. I think Martin may have the lowest floor. But the other 2 are just so unpredictable. Tough call.

I wouldn't want to stay at cal if I'm Martin, though. So I certainly don't want a desperate candidate unless he can get us to a F4

IlliniRd said:

Just wondering. How serious is the concern about the 2017 recruiting class leaving if JG gets fired? Would a group of 17 and 18 year old weld that much influence? Could JW go talk to them before he makes a decision? One last thing, could Coach Lovie Smith help recruit a top notch basketball coach?

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This is where Whitman comes in.

Despite Groce's perceived strengths as a recruiter, Whitman is the most likeabke salesman of the Illini program I've ever seen.

Can't expect to see all the commits stay, but I have confidence that:
A) Whitman will make a really good hire
B) He will convince commits and future recruits to hear the new hire out.
C) Being a solid hire, many commits (if not all) will stay.

I don't think Whitman is afraid of helping recruit and doing a darn good job of it.

Illinoise said:

I said that? Don't recall that one. The coach is a problem, we just differ in what that problem is. Let me ask you this, assuming we get a new coach and keep all the incoming recruits what do you think a reasonable expectation is for the teams record next year.

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That IS what you are saying when you say "Hey, he won tournament games at Ohio, do you think he forgot everything?"

Re: next year, I haven't looked at schedule enough to guess an exact number, but I'm pretty certain we'll have a better record than what we end up with this year.

mattcoldagelli said:

Nope nope nope.

"Near the top of the conference"? Maybe not. Competitive? Certainly.

Come hell or high water, we in this thread are going to strangle this "John Groce didn't have any talent" myth in its crib.

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Maybe not? How about, definitely not?

Competitive level of talent? What does that mean? If you mean talent enough to push us over the bubble and compete for a birth, with some good coaching/chemistry, etc.? Yes. Talent that was shoo-in for NCAA? No. Granted, Groce is doing the program no favors, and his coaching will not push bubble level teams (in terms of talent) to NCAA births, but recruiting and talent, especially at key positions, have been a big problem, definitely a B1G problem.

Especially at the most important position, PG, talent has been absolutely dismal in Groce's tenure and C has not been good either, and I'd give much credit to Mav for, despite his many limitations on defense, probably developing as a much better player than anyone may had expected.

The teams that we have lost to so far, Purdue, Maryland, Indiana are a lot more talented. Even with Maryland losing their big men, their guard combination of Melo/Cowan is arguably the best in the league. Way more talented than us. It does not excuse Groce's poor coaching, he has been bad, but let's not pretend that talent is not a problem.

Even with Michigan, another bubble level team IMO, who we actually split with (1-1), it is a very hard argument to make that we have more talent than their top 6 main rotation of Irvin, Walton, Wagner, Wilson, Robinson, and Abdur-Rahkman. We do not have more talent.

Since Dee and James Augustine left, the talent level has been a huge problem, below the level Illinois should be at, independent of good or bad coaching in specific seasons. The only one of those years that Illinois had "good" talent, at a level that we should have, was 2010-11: DMac, DJ, Paul, Davis, Tisdale, Griffey, Richmond, Leonard, Cole, Head, Bertrand. Independent of coaching, head cases, off-court, chemistry, etc. Talent-wise.

Even historically, the periods that Illinois consistently got very good talent (80s and late 90s/early 2000s) miraculously coincide with the periods we were consistently good, not just good in a single season.

The next coach will need to bring the talent for Illinois to be consistently competitive, not only in a single season, but be consistently competitive in the top-4 in the B1G. Otherwise, on the average, we will be hovering around the Mendoza line of B1G basketball (.500), sometimes better, sometimes worse, depending on coaching, chemistry, etc.

mattcoldagelli said:

That IS what you are saying when you say "Hey, he won tournament games at Ohio, do you think he forgot everything?"

Re: next year, I haven't looked at schedule enough to guess an exact number, but I'm pretty certain we'll have a better record than what we end up with this year.

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Okie dokie. Not sure what players on the current roster you have this much confidence in but I hope you are right. I think you are in for a surprise if you think a new coach is going to make a marked change in the short term. It's going to take a few years. I'm sure there is an ocean of difference in coaching ability between Tim Beckmann and Lovie. If you don't have the talent X's and O's aren't gonna fix it.

Obelix said:

Maybe not? How about, definitely not?

Competitive level of talent? What does that mean? If you mean talent enough to push us over the bubble and compete for a birth, with some good coaching/chemistry, etc.? Yes.

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Yes, pretty much.

I'm hardly alone in this - this was the overwhelming consensus POV, at least on this board, heading into this season. I think many justifiably assumed that just our dearth of experience alone would be a significant asset, since it often is in college basketball.

Illinoise said:

Okie dokie. Not sure what players on the current roster you have this much confidence in but I hope you are right. I think you are in for a surprise if you think a new coach is going to make a marked change in the short term. It's going to take a few years. I'm sure there is an ocean of difference in coaching ability between Tim Beckmann and Lovie. If you don't have the talent X's and O's aren't gonna fix it.

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Football and basketball aren't comparable when it comes to turnaround speeds.

This thread is literally full of examples of coaches who came into bad, dumpster fire-level scenarios and made impressive strides in year one.

Illinoise said:

Okie dokie. Not sure what players on the current roster you have this much confidence in but I hope you are right. I think you are in for a surprise if you think a new coach is going to make a marked change in the short term. It's going to take a few years. I'm sure there is an ocean of difference in coaching ability between Tim Beckmann and Lovie. If you don't have the talent X's and O's aren't gonna fix it.

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Basketball and football are completely different games. Keatts turned around 9-23 to first in his conference in a year. It is entirely doable in hoops. That's not to say we should expect to jump from 12th/13th this year to top 3, but even being competitive next year will get us to 18+ wins, which is a threshold we may not make with the way we are playing.

mattcoldagelli said:

Yes, pretty much.

I'm hardly alone in this - this was the overwhelming consensus POV, at least on this board, heading into this season. I think many justifiably assumed that just our dearth of experience alone would be a significant asset, since it often is in college basketball.

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Dearth (noun): a scarcity or lack of something