I believe the Groce experiment has run it's course; however, I also agree that he will be our coach next year if JW cannot find the home run hire to step in. Makes no sense to just take next man up if he is not equipped to be the long term solution. Why risk a pretty good class for a middling new hire? My feeling is that you put out feelers to coaches that would be considered home run hires and if nobody bites, you wait another year while building connections for 2018.
2017 Coaching Carousel
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I have the same feeling. Obviously new coach, provided a good hire, is better long term. I'm not sold he's out right now, though.
mattcoldagelli
- The Transfer Portal with Do Not Contact Tag
Guys, he's done.
If this is the case I would believe it's because Illinois didn't pony up. You don't want to overpay someone who is unproven but if we're talking home run hires money shouldn't be the deal breaker.
If attendance next year drops by 2,000 per game revenue will decrease by at least $2 million
I checked and seats are selling secondary market for our last 2 home games in the $7 - $9 range. Fans have checked out, and most don't follow recruiting like us on this board.
Financially speaking, I think it's worth it to offer Bennett double his salary. The department will recoup that through the increase in game day revenue alone.
Jkat00
- Champaign, IL
The in-state kids will stay if JW hires the right coach and Walker is retained. Nobody knows what will happen with Frazier. Mark Smith is still in play as well. 4 straight years of no NCAAs... Groce has given Whitman no choice but to fire him. Illinois will have a new coach next season!
Jkat00
- Champaign, IL
Pretty sure his contract runs through the 2018-2019 season. So 2 more seasons. But yes either way they are at a crossroads of firing/extending. We know what's going to happen.
Eventually, whether it's an office or a team, if a group of people are stuck doing things in a way that doesn't yield results...the problem is not the people, it's the system. As a leader, boss or coach you are responsible for that system.
Especially after 5 years.
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OrangeAndBlues
- Indianapolis
There is some SERIOUS delusion happening on this board if people still think Groce is going to be retained.
His buy-out is twice his base, prorated. I believe he was hired at $400k, and his raises have been in other compensation, so it's still $400 x 2 x 2 = $1.6 mil. We'd miss the $500k retention bonus, so I'd call it $1.1 mil net. If correct, that is a tiny number by high major standards of coaching security.
While there's no such thing as a sure thing, if I were a handicapper, I'd give at least 5-1 against him staying. His seat was hot after last season, but the consensus was that the cause was injuries. This season put the injuries argument to rest, and I think burned his last remaining goodwill among the folks who matter.
People pointing to recruiting risks and cost just don't get it IMHO. What more evidence could you get?
...because the Best is Yet to Come?
Just going to bump my post from earlier:
And to add onto that, waiting a year is not going to make our job MORE attractive.
I thought I was one of the last hold outs for keeping him, but I gave up after the second Maryland loss. Groce has lost the team and his inability to manage rotations and subbing patterns is very apparent.
Need to make an impact hire.
Tevo
- Wilmette, IL
If Whitman hires a less-than-home run hire, some fans may be upset, but most will at least be curious to see how it goes, and I think hopeful that it will go well. If he retains Groce, the vast majority will wonder what the hell he is thinking and will have no hope for the future (aside, maybe, from hoping our freshman blow up beyond their rankings, which, you know, happens so often at Illinois). Every single coach on our list has at least even odds to be better than Groce, and most would be picked by the fans and media to do much better.
The idea of waiting because we don't have a "home run" hire makes no sense. ANY step is better than the long steady powerdive into the ground we're currently enjoying.
The idea of waiting because we don't have a "home run" hire makes no sense. ANY step is better than the long steady powerdive into the ground we're currently enjoying.
I Bomb
Stylin' and Profilin'
Maybe it's not delusion but confusion. I've heard enough over the last few years, even from the horses, that wasn't on the money, so maybe as Illinois fans we never know what to expect. But, if you start using the phrase, "most likely", I think it's clear which outcome aligns better, at this point.
This was exactly the feeling last time around. Groce felt like the backup plan to the backup plan... We missed on a few highly touted guys and there was a collective melancholy about it. Still, it was a "wait and see what happens" hire that was low risk. Then he blows up and should've made the S16. Everyone freaks out that we found a diamond and it takes 3 years for people to come to grips with his first year being an anomaly. If it werent for the injuries, we would've been having this 200+ page conversation last year.
To me, it seems like 8 out of 10 names that come up here are inherently better coaching prospects than Groce was. If Cuonzo is our backup plan, I think we are in good shape. Just because we could get Lovie to come here doesn't mean we are going to nab a top college coach. Home run hires aren't something that fall into your lap, its more of a perfect situation playing itself out--I dont think we have that kind of situation here.
That said, theres no reason to believe our next coach wont be a good hire. Chances are he isn't a Tony Bennett or Gregg Marshall, but I find it hard to believe Whitman wont use all the resources he can to find and get a coach he believe in.
If a new coach duplicates Groce's first year, he will return all of those guys the following year. Could be a dark horse FF team in the new coach's second year! Imagine the momentum our program will have!
IlliniInOK
- no longer in OK! Centralia, IL
If you cannot make an argument for keeping Coach Groce beyond "We can keep our recruits!" or "We might not get an A+ guy to replace him!" then he shouldn't stay. Honestly, I don't think there is a single argument that can be made that would convince me that he should stay. Even if we make a run through the BTT and then catch fire in the NCAAs and win a game or two, the season was still a disaster up to this point and when combined with the previous 3 years of NCAA misses is plenty of reason to fire him.
Great guy, decent recruiter, probably a poor coach, possibly the worst stretch of results in Illinois basketball history, all things considered.
Great guy, decent recruiter, probably a poor coach, possibly the worst stretch of results in Illinois basketball history, all things considered.
The contract is not an issue impacting the decision either way, whether he is fired or not. Even if you extend a coach, the key is the guarantees and buyouts and Groce is in no position to dictate terms. His contract will not be an issue.
I was chit-chatting Illini hoops with a couple folks and they seemed pretty adamant that Groce might not have a head coaching gig after getting the boot. I still think he'll end up coaching in a low-major conference after this year, no?
Big Groce supporter, I cut him some slack with a the injuries last year. This years team loaded with experience and tanking in a weak Bigten. Historical low winning percentage, it's time to go.
Everyone loves to make the "homerun" analogy. So let's take a step further. Right now Groce is an automatic strike out every at bat. He's a high school pitcher stepping into a MLB batters box. Nobody wants to see that. At this point, having a journeyman minor leaguer gives us a better chance at the plate. I'll take a singles hitter over the automatic out.
I didn't grab the quote but someone found the only 3 power 5 coaches with at least 3 years experience that have lower conference win percentages than Groce. 2 were Chambers and Miles who have owned Groce in the B1G and the other was Enfield at USC that has that program headed the right direction with a tourney birth in grasp.
He's done. He's a nice guy, but a terrible coach for this program.
I didn't grab the quote but someone found the only 3 power 5 coaches with at least 3 years experience that have lower conference win percentages than Groce. 2 were Chambers and Miles who have owned Groce in the B1G and the other was Enfield at USC that has that program headed the right direction with a tourney birth in grasp.
He's done. He's a nice guy, but a terrible coach for this program.
Apparently, sir, you never heard of Harv Schmidt.
The Cubs are world champs!
Trump is president!
Groce is 4-3 against Tim Miles in the B1G.
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