I would agree that I'd prefer an x's and o's oriented guy, because that feels more sustainable, but you still have to be able to recruit at a semi-high level to land those types of guys and a difference maker every few years.
Right, you don't ignore recruiting ability, but you should have a healthy appreciation for the fact that ability to coach basketball is easier to project than ability to recruit.
Basically, take your framework back to 2000, ask yourself whether it would lead you to a young mid-major X's and O's svengali like Tulsa coach Bill Self, or a proven recruiter and Chicago AAU maven like DePaul coach Pat Kennedy.
If your coaching search machine flunks that test, get out the toolbox and keep tinkering.