Totally agree...Fran's teams fade at the end of the year - reminds me of Tom Davis' teams.
2017 Coaching Carousel
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Totally agree...Fran's teams fade at the end of the year - reminds me of Tom Davis' teams.
Tevo
- Wilmette, IL
This is my perspective, too. And it's also why choosing the "hot" coach who just won two games in last year's tournament is the wrong way to choose a new coach. I think that tournament success is a lot like the way Billy Beane describes the MLB playoffs -- it's a crap shoot. Teams get hot, players get hot, matchups can let clearly inferior teams win games against certain other teams, but then get killed by others. Finding a coach based on tournament success, or retaining one because he does or doesn't win a game in the tournament is silly.
That being said, while doing a little research, I saw an example of how easily stats can be skewed to whatever story you want to tell.
Story 1: In 8+ years as a head coach, John Groce has only had 2 seasons where his team was >.500 in conference play (64-74 in conference). His Illini team looks no better now that it did four years ago. And his so-called "strong" recruiting skills have netted him classes that are merely comparable to Bruce "Taurus Driving" Weber!
Story 2: At Ohio, he took a team from 7-9 in his first season to 11-5 and the Sweet Sixteen three seasons later, showing slow (at first) but then showing clear improvement (in record, at least). At Illinois, he inherited a decent team but it immediately graduated its stars. After a brief drop in Year 2, the conference record was better in Year 3, and he was set to have a strong season in Year 3 until a nuclear tsunami of injuries blew the team up. If he had only had his whole team that year, he'd be showing the same kind of progress at Illinois that he showed at Ohio! And now, he's finally broken through with a great recruiting class! Yay, John!
Personally, Story #1 feels more like the "truth".
An assistant who can fix all of the current problems may not be a good HC.
The discussion has just gone around about how it is hard to evaluate how a mid-major coach will recruit at the next level. We have one who is recruiting well and is on an upward (recruiting) trend. Should we throw it away for an solid x/o coach with unknown recruiting abilities?
If Groce can acknowledge his weaknesses and make the hard calls to plug those holes with new assistants, things may work out. Assistant coach at UI is a pretty big step up from most positions. Someone who can teach defense and x/o's should want it.
Eh, not really. Groce's recruiting is steady and solid, his struggles at one key position notwithstanding.
When Tilmon moves down three spots in the rankings and suddenly it is universally accepted that the 2017 class isn't worth keeping a bad coach for, I am going to be very, very disappointed in you all.
If Groce doesn't make the tourney this year and is kept, is he also given a pass for next year? If this team couldn't amke it, next years team will certainly struggle more. Then at that time is the argument his team was too young/inexperienced? Unless we are tourney bound this year, I dont see any reason to keep him next. At this point, I'd rather lose guys and get a coach that can actually coach than someone who is gonna be strung along by excuses. I dont see the team making the tourney next year even if Groce stays. Sure we might have a top10/15 class and even if Mark Smith commits and plays like a borderline top 50 player, we really are only getting one starter IMMEDIATELY out of next years. I predict people will be disappointed with TJL and the team as a whole next year. If 6+ guys can't learn and perform well under Groce's system 5 years into it, no way kids with a year or less experience will be able to. No way next years team wins more than this years.
Now, with that out of the way, I think this current team has everything to make the tournament. We've got to come to play every game and every possession. Thats what will stop us. So far, we've slept through a lot of games, and won a lot of those because of inferior oppositions. We are such a jekyll and hyde team. Legit scorers at every position, 3 pt shooting from multiple players, a star who scores at every level, and age all point towards a tournament team for most universities. It really sits squarely on Groce's shoulders now.
Now, with that out of the way, I think this current team has everything to make the tournament. We've got to come to play every game and every possession. Thats what will stop us. So far, we've slept through a lot of games, and won a lot of those because of inferior oppositions. We are such a jekyll and hyde team. Legit scorers at every position, 3 pt shooting from multiple players, a star who scores at every level, and age all point towards a tournament team for most universities. It really sits squarely on Groce's shoulders now.
Almost 5,000 of them now!
I mean, the reason I'm wrong is that the Loyalty hivemind always locks in the value of any recruit at the absolute highest anyone has ever suggested they might potentially be, so his inevitable "congrats on committing to Illinois" downgrade probably won't change any opinions. You're right.
But I'm getting old now, and I have been through so many cycles of totally irrational, unjustified recruit hype to demanding that freshmen play over better, more experienced upperclassmen to disappointment and anger over their performance versus ridiculous over-inflated expectations to denial that the players were talented in the first place, to finally, of course, demands that they be benched in favor of new over-hyped recruits. I'm sick of it. It drives me crazy that long-time Illini fans keep repeating the cycle and never learn.
This is how I feel about crean and I feel dirty for it.
Almost 5,000 of them now!
I mean, the reason I'm wrong is that the Loyalty hivemind always locks in the value of any recruit at the absolute highest anyone has ever suggested they might potentially be, so his inevitable "congrats on committing to Illinois" downgrade probably won't change any opinions. You're right.
But I'm getting old now, and I have been through so many cycles of totally irrational, unjustified recruit hype to demanding that freshmen play over better, more experienced upperclassmen to disappointment and anger over their performance versus ridiculous over-inflated expectations to denial that the players were talented in the first place, to finally, of course, demands that they be benched in favor of new over-hyped recruits. I'm sick of it. It drives me crazy that long-time Illini fans keep repeating the cycle and never learn.
Aren't you like 30?
Like I said, old.
I was on the train when it was all Shaun Pruitt and Brian Randle's fault and McCamey and Davis and Tisdale would save us. I was skeptical, but open to the possibility that it was all McCamey and Davis' fault and Paul and Richardson would save us. By the time it became their fault, I had fully seen the folly of all this.
Talent has never been the problem as our program has burned to the ground over the past decade. Never.
This is pretty much all you need to know about illni bb. There are schools that do way more with way less, talent wise coming out of hs. People blamed Weber's failures on lack of recruiting success but in reality he was at worst a middle of the pack B1G recruiter. I felt his problem was a lack of leadership. His x's and o's werent anything to write home about, but at least you could count on his teams to defend. I think Groce is a better recruiter, and maybe a better leader, but not a better coach. Webers teams (at least towards the end of his tenure) trailed off so hard towards the end of the season is was unbearable to watch. Energy was less than zero. It was depressing and change was needed. Now we've got a players coach who it seems most people adore (well, ok not true, but players tend to praise him, and he's the only coach I've ever hoped would succeed based solely on personality.)
I feel like if a coach could put together a good recruiting staff, getting talent to come here wouldn't be hard. Groce will be able to get top 100 guys every (most) years. The challenge has always been putting it all together, whether it be Groce or Weber.
mattcoldagelli
- The Transfer Portal with Do Not Contact Tag
In pure talent terms, Weber did fine. As SandC pointed out, we had teams that cleared the tournament talent threshold every single year.
I think Weber's problem was that he got away from recruiting the types of players that he actually wanted to have on his roster. He was never really secure enough in his role at Illinois to say "Yeah, I know this kid is being considered for Mr. Basketball in Illinois, but I think I'll be able to win more games with this guy over here." Which is a shame, because he probably would've succeeded that way.
I don't think he ever really got over all the recruiting-related arrows that came his way in the wake of Self's departure. I was kind of shocked at how he put these cards on the table during that Purdue postgame presser where he pined for the Boilers' roster.
I've never thought much of Crean as a coach
Yeah, the great irony is that at the conclusion of the unforgivable four-year run of recruiting from 2005-2008, the low ebb for talent at Illinois since the early Henson years, maybe longer, was 08-09, the best team we've had post-Dee. That's the one year you could argue maybe we didn't have the talent to be a tourney team and we were a 5 seed. I don't think that's a coincidence. Every other post-05 Weber team felt like it was full of guys he was being forced to coach, first leftover Self guys then Jerrance guys.
We need to be careful not to make it seem like the 05-08 recruits were "Weber's guys" because they were really mostly crumbs picked out from the couch cushions after Weber had humiliated himself reaching for the stars. Not a single one of those classes used all the available scholarships, and guys like Mike Davis and Chester Frazier were last minute bargain bin finds, not affordable homemade crafts.
But one wonders what would have happened if rather than getting Jerrance Howard to land him the same sorts of players he had been missing on, there would have been a change of strategies. The answer is probably that he gets fired after 07-08 because he doesn't have the DJ/BP3/JoeBert class coming in, but if he had stayed, 08-09 saves his job and then what?
But of course this whole roller coaster only happens because Weber was the perfect coach for the roster Self left behind. Only he could have created the expectations that only he could have failed so spectacularly to meet. Such a frustrating saga. :frustrated:
Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
+1
A cadaver could bring VG-excellent talent to IU. Clappy's done that. Had significant misses too. As a coach though, he's been hit-and-(lots-of-)miss (and that's throwing out his first few years). Hope he's at IU forever.
Weber personally was a poor recruiter and poor salesman of the program. Jerrance was able to help fill the roster with enough talent to win. However, Weber's odd personality did not allow for him to capitalize on recruiting after the 2005 Season.
2006 and 2007 should have been monster classes.
2006 and 2007 should have been monster classes.
We haven't had elite talent since '05. Players recruited by Self. We've had some good players, but look at the NBA. Meyers Leonard and Deron Williams are the only Illini in the NBA, and Meyers is an athletic 7-footer who would have needed another season to make an impact at Illinois.
With all due respect and in no way trying to start an argument, McCamey and Paul have been good players, but not elite. Guys like Tisdale, Cole, Richardson, Pruitt, Randle, Meachum etc are role players at best that could be a part of a nice supporting cast around elite talent, but we haven't had that since Dee and Deron departed.
To me, next year's class's success rests on Tilmon being a 14 and 8 guy his sophomore year, and Frazier being a 12 and 6 guy his sophomore year. Those two players have to pan out. If those two things happen, then we'll have a shot at a deep tourney run in 2019.
The reality is that we are two seasons away from a potential deep tourney run unless two things happen 1) our players suddenly learn how to play perimeter defense this season, or 2) We have some surprising or accelerated developments on next season's team like landing Mark Smith and him being the next Deron Williams, Trent Frazier being the next Dee Brown and Damonte having some of his dad's swagger and toughness coupled with the veterans all improving which could happen, just unlikely.
I've settled into if we make the tourney this season then Groce deserves to keep his job. He probably needs to be given two more seasons barring a catastrophe next season.
Just like in football. Patience is the key. We're two season away in both sports from being where we want to be as loyal fans of the beloved orange and blue.
If Groce finishes below .500 in the BIG there is no excusable way in which JW could keep Groce around for next season. If Groce makes the NIT, well, I'll trust JW to do the right thing. He hit a home run with the Cubit for Lovie move. I have faith he knows what he's doing.
With all due respect and in no way trying to start an argument, McCamey and Paul have been good players, but not elite. Guys like Tisdale, Cole, Richardson, Pruitt, Randle, Meachum etc are role players at best that could be a part of a nice supporting cast around elite talent, but we haven't had that since Dee and Deron departed.
To me, next year's class's success rests on Tilmon being a 14 and 8 guy his sophomore year, and Frazier being a 12 and 6 guy his sophomore year. Those two players have to pan out. If those two things happen, then we'll have a shot at a deep tourney run in 2019.
The reality is that we are two seasons away from a potential deep tourney run unless two things happen 1) our players suddenly learn how to play perimeter defense this season, or 2) We have some surprising or accelerated developments on next season's team like landing Mark Smith and him being the next Deron Williams, Trent Frazier being the next Dee Brown and Damonte having some of his dad's swagger and toughness coupled with the veterans all improving which could happen, just unlikely.
I've settled into if we make the tourney this season then Groce deserves to keep his job. He probably needs to be given two more seasons barring a catastrophe next season.
Just like in football. Patience is the key. We're two season away in both sports from being where we want to be as loyal fans of the beloved orange and blue.
If Groce finishes below .500 in the BIG there is no excusable way in which JW could keep Groce around for next season. If Groce makes the NIT, well, I'll trust JW to do the right thing. He hit a home run with the Cubit for Lovie move. I have faith he knows what he's doing.
illynifan34
That's a winner!!
- OH
I had all these thoughts while watching Kansas State almost beat Kansas. If Weber had brought in his type if guys I think he's still here.
It's crazy that Weber couldn't land any of the big fish he went so aggressively after post-05. It's crazier that he couldn't work with the big fish he did land later on.
On paper, the team that got Weber fired was arguably more talented than the 2005 team.
One had RSCI #'s 19, 28, 48, 62, 77, 77 and 78
The other had RSCI #'s 29, 35, 49, 65, 66, 69, 76, and 78
Both had one NBA lottery pick after the season.
One went 15-1 in the Big Ten, the other went 6-12. Weber recruited everyone on the 6-12 team, and virtually no one on the 15-1 team.
Yeah the 05 team had much more experience, but that doesn't make it make any damn sense.
3 of Weber's last 4 teams were ranked in the Top 25 as of late January, including that last one.
Ugh, I'm having horrible flashbacks. I need to stop.
And, we would be a second tier BIG team. I don't think that is what most of us want but is certainly better than we have now.
I get that people love Whitman for the Lovie hire, and he's an undoubtedly charismatic guy, but I think it's risky to assume that he will be able to hit the same kind of home run if he needs to replace Groce. That timing and connections had to work out perfectly for the whole Lovie thing to materialize.
Money changes all that, though. Hopefully hiring Lovie gets him enough momentum with donors to raise the funds necessary to get a similar caliber basketball coach, without the need for personal connections, but I'm still skeptical.
Money changes all that, though. Hopefully hiring Lovie gets him enough momentum with donors to raise the funds necessary to get a similar caliber basketball coach, without the need for personal connections, but I'm still skeptical.
mattcoldagelli
- The Transfer Portal with Do Not Contact Tag
Part of it isn't even possible (or necessary) to repeat. A big part of what made the Lovie hire so impressive was that we were able to get someone that is, frankly, out of our league and did so AFTER the college hiring season.
The 05 team also had 2 extremely talented PGs and a 3rd guy who could handle the ball as well as most PGs we've had since then.
The other team had a couple of passable combo guards that were not nearly as capable.
It's not a theory, it's a huge difference between those two teams when you go beyond simple RSCI parsing.
Overthinking seems to be your downfall.
By the same token the 2012 team was loaded with talented big guys in a way the 2005 team was not.
The 2012 team didn't not have point guards. Tracy Abrams and Sam Maniscalco were both point guards and they shared virtually all the minutes at the position that year.
Your argument is that talent at that position outweighs equal talent elsewhere. That is a theory, not a fact. I find that theory interesting and I'm not saying it's wrong, I'm just a bit suspicious.
By the way, keep in mind Tracy Abrams was voted the MVP of that team.
You don't know the half of it
Sam was significantly hampered by injury that year. Link
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