2017 Coaching Carousel

Second and Chalmers said:

The "it's all about PG's" theory is worthy of further study, but my suspicion is that it ultimately folds into coaching quality, with the PG being an expression of the ideas of the coach on the floor.

For example, Jawun Evans was a stud for a tire fire of an Oklahoma State team last year, now he's a stud for a seemingly much improved team. The coach is what changed.

It's a miracle of modern science that none of DJax, Snider, Evans, Brunson or Charlie Moore is on our team this year. But put one of those guys on the roster and I'm a bit dubious of what their VATA (Value Above Tracy Abrams) would be. All of a sudden our offense will work like clockwork? Groce's Ohio offenses with The Legend of DJ Cooper didn't work like clockwork. Those teams won because they were aggressive and pugnacious at both ends like this year's team is at its best.

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Well you compared two of Weber's teams that you're saying are identical based on ranking. Coaching would be a common denominator there, unless you're saying Weber's quality differed? I would agree with WVC that you may be over-analyzing this.

Second and Chalmers said:

If I'm getting your point wrong, please correct me.

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I just did. Looking for where I said:

talent at that position outweighs equal talent elsewhere.

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Because none of the sections you quoted does.

Remember, you were the one who implied the talent levels were equal, not me. You also noted another significant difference, experience. There were other significant differences not yet mentioned.

Second and Chalmers said:

I don't know of a good way to look it up, but I have a hard time imagining a comparable team missing the tournament.

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Compile a list of all D1 (I'll allow just P5) schools, find their recruits RSCI and year, then see if you think they'll make the tourney--its that easy

But seriously, agreed. Hard not to put the blame on Groce. Even if you argue these guys dont mesh well or whatever its still Groces fault for recruiting them. I thought they played well last year considering the circumstance. This year hasn't been much better and its really embarressing and sad. of course, we have 17 more games, but unless we player like the rankings we are supposed to, Groce shouldn't ahve a job.

Weber always had talent but like others have said, they weren't always his guys. I dont have an answer for the balance between getting skilled players and getting scheme guys, but I can tell you it doesn't matter either way if your coach can't coach.

Second and Chalmers said:

I suppose that is what I'm saying.

We tend to analyze Weber's tenure in two parts. Dee and Post-Dee. But you put the two pieces together and it's just mystifying. Which part was the perfect storm? Were they both perfect storms?

We're getting well far afield of the point here though, I apologize. To bring it back, as badly as Weber underperformed his talent level, we may look at Groce having done even worse by the end of the year.

This team has RSCI #'s 37, 46, 69, 70, and 78. None of whom is a freshman, all of whom had significant playing experience before this year, and 4 of whom are starters. The fifth starter is a timeshare between two seniors.

I don't know of a good way to look it up, but I have a hard time imagining a comparable team missing the tournament. Billy Gillispie's second UK team is the best I can do.

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And a really good PG like a Brunson, Evans, Jackson, Snider etc would make this a top 25 team with maybe 3 losses, but not 2 blow-out losses and a loss to Winthrop. If you have ever played the game, the difference in having a quality PG that can create for others, for himself and defend his position versus having a point guard that cannot is a wide gap in the quality of basketball that a team will play, and directly impacts the final score and result of the game.

I'm not here to defend Coach Groce, but this team does not have a quality true PG. Abrams is a good combo and great team leader, but he doesn't excel at creating for others or defending his position. Tate can create for others until the man guarding him sags off and mucks up the offense, and then he is just there to not turn the ball over while we wait for someone else to make a play.

Hopefully between TJL, Frazier (Mark Smith?) next season will be the first season that we see a semblance of what Coach is going for on offense. I sure hope so because our offense has been unwatchable for most of the last few seasons.

GameOfThrows said:

And a really good PG like a Brunson, Evans, Jackson, Snider etc would make this a top 25 team with maybe 3 losses, but not 2 blow-out losses and a loss to Winthrop. If you have ever played the game, the difference in having a quality PG that can create for others, for himself and defend his position versus having a point guard that cannot is a wide gap in the quality of basketball that a team will play, and directly impacts the final score and result of the game.

I'm not here to defend Coach Groce, but this team does not have a quality true PG. Abrams is a good combo and great team leader, but he doesn't excel at creating for others or defending his position. Tate can create for others until the man guarding him sags off and mucks up the offense, and then he is just there to not turn the ball over while we wait for someone else to make a play.

Hopefully between TJL, Frazier (Mark Smith?) next season will be the first season that we see a semblance of what Coach is going for on offense. I sure hope so because our offense has been unwatchable for most of the last few seasons.

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Not having the players you need is not an excuse. That's the most important part of the job.

GameOfThrows said:

The reality is that we are two seasons away from a potential deep tourney run

I've settled into if we make the tourney this season then Groce deserves to keep his job. He probably needs to be given two more seasons barring a catastrophe next season.

Just like in football. Patience is the key. We're two season away in both sports from being where we want to be as loyal fans of the beloved orange and blue.

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I am 64. I can't wait that long! So I was around 54 when this steady decline started. That's a good chunk of my life. :frustrated:

jmilt7 said:

I am 64. I can't wait that long! So I was around 54 when this steady decline started. That's a good chunk of my life. :frustrated:

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I was but 29 when the badness started, so fully over 1/4 of my life now the Illini have been bad. At least I got to live a good portion of the glory years when I was on campus ('98-03).

Second and Chalmers said:

True, but you don't fire a coach as punishment. You fire him because the future is brighter with someone else.

If Trent Frazier were Frank Williams, and this team was being propelled by JCL and Black and Finke, then maybe you're sitting here saying next year looks fundamentally different.

Certainly that was our perspective going from last year to this year due to the injuries, and so far that has proven true.

Instead, Frazier is not even a top 100 player and our top two scorers are Hill and Abrams. We're at the peak of an era here. And if the peak of an era is the NIT, what are we waiting for?

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I normally don't like to be the guy who thinks the Illini recruit is underrated, because by in large the experts get it right. However, Frazier (at least to me) looks quite a bit underrated in the way a Mike Dudek did. Watching Dudek's film it was absolutely clear he would be a difference maker. Frazier seems similar to me. None of it really matters however if Groce doesn't improve.

Catching up, no IL at work for me

grue said:

An assistant who can fix all of the current problems may not be a good HC.

The discussion has just gone around about how it is hard to evaluate how a mid-major coach will recruit at the next level. We have one who is recruiting well and is on an upward (recruiting) trend. Should we throw it away for an solid x/o coach with unknown recruiting abilities?

If Groce can acknowledge his weaknesses and make the hard calls to plug those holes with new assistants, things may work out. Assistant coach at UI is a pretty big step up from most positions. Someone who can teach defense and x/o's should want it.

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You can hire recruiters on the bench, too, you know. Personally, I would rather have my recruiters in the assistant role, and my x's and o's guys in the head seat. I would be OK if Groce wanted to relinquish the schemes to assistant(s), but somehow, I don't see that happening. Additionally, since assistants tend to move around a little more, I'd rather lose a recruiter from the bench (more replaceable, IMO), than risk losing the man who coordinates our schemes/system. That is a role that should be protected by a higher salary and title on the bench.

FiveStar said:

This is how I feel about crean and I feel dirty for it.

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I agree. Their downfall and reason for inconsistency tends to be more bad decision making and shot taking than the sets they have, they run great sets, but have some guys like Blackmon, etc who just like to chuck. His #1 team we knocked off at AH had a bunch of guys who stuck to the system and they were a damn good team. I will leave it to you all to compare RSCI's for his current team and then, but I'm fairly certain his current team is more talented

ChiefIllini said:

But seriously, agreed. Hard not to put the blame on Groce. Even if you argue these guys dont mesh well or whatever its still Groces fault for recruiting them.

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Obviously he wouldn't say it out loud, but I don't recall him talking about how close his previous teams were at all/with the frequency he does with this team. I'd believe it with some of the previous few teams, but I don't see a reason this team would have any meshing issues and his public comments seem to support that (not saying you think they haven't meshed, but there are teams that DO fall victim to that, and this Illini team is not one, IMO)

MadSeason said:

I normally don't like to be the guy who thinks the Illini recruit is underrated, because by in large the experts get it right. However, Frazier (at least to me) looks quite a bit underrated in the way a Mike Dudek did. Watching Dudek's film it was absolutely clear he would be a difference maker. Frazier seems similar to me. None of it really matters however if Groce doesn't improve.

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Frazier is ranked where he is because he's not really playing anyone, Florida isn't exactly a basketball hotbed, I read on his twitter feed maybe that he's considered a top 3 player in his area, and he's currently not in the top 100, so that says a little about the talent level there (considering that can span multiple classes). Not an exact science, but I'm not aware of a ton of D1 prospects from his area, feel free to correct me on that. But if I am correct, there will likely be an adjustment period as he gets used to a big jump in talent level.

Second and Chalmers said:

Disagree on both counts. I recognize Tracy's limitations but I still think he's a very good player and calling him a combo guard is incorrect.

At the very least the PG position is night and day from last year's Tate and Lewis mess. The geometry of the floor is just different.

Even with that shift though, we struggle to execute crisply and find open looks. That's on the system being run, not the PG running it, for me.

And in any event, it's speculative at best to think a soph Lucas and a true frosh Frazier will represent an upgrade over what we have now.

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Are you saying that Tracy isn't a combo guard because he's a shooting guard? Or Tracy's not a combo guard, he's a point guard. If it's the latter I suppose we have different ideas on what makes a point guard. I would expect a 6th year senior point guard to average more than 2.7 assists/game.

I'm a fan of Tracy. He's a great leader, competitor and teammate and when he plays well, the team plays well. A true point guard though? I'll stick with my assessment that he is a true combo guard and leave it at that.

GameOfThrows said:

Are you saying that Tracy isn't a combo guard because he's a shooting guard? Or Tracy's not a combo guard, he's a point guard. If it's the latter I suppose we have different ideas on what makes a point guard. I would expect a 6th year senior point guard to average more than 2.7 assists/game.

I'm a fan of Tracy. He's a great leader, competitor and teammate and when he plays well, the team plays well. A true point guard though? I'll stick with my assessment that he is a true combo guard and leave it at that.

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Personally, I am of the conviction that Tracy is more of a combo at this stage of his career. That said, the assist number is attributable to the system he's playing in. We have little to no off-ball movement, bad screening, etc. and there's a reason nobody in this offense has averaged more then 4 assists in Groce's tenure (Jaylon Tate is the closest, unless I'm missing someone, at 3.8 so far this year).

Chris Holtmann about to complete an upset of Villanova (its at Butler), for our Holtmann fans

mattcoldagelli said:

I think Weber's problem was that he got away from recruiting the types of players that he actually wanted to have on his roster. He was never really secure enough in his role at Illinois to say "Yeah, I know this kid is being considered for Mr. Basketball in Illinois, but I think I'll be able to win more games with this guy over here." Which is a shame, because he probably would've succeeded that way.

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That was actually Weber's excuse and I do not buy it. Weber does not have the personality or recruiting ability to become a difference maker in the high-major ranks. He did fine when was handed out great players, but failed miserably with his own players and is greatly responsible for the Illini program decline. He will occasionally have a good season with his own players (like the 2008-09) but slip again into mediocrity.

The same movie is playing again at KSU. Did relatively well with KSU players handed to him by Frank Martin and did terribly with his own players (there is no excuse of not recruiting the players he wanted) the last 2 years (not even NIT). What we are watching this years is most likely a repeat of 2008-09 (the occasional good season) rather than a steady ascend to high-major prominence. Unfortunately for KSU fans, this movie does not end for another 4-5 years. JMO.

One thing is for sure. With the talent that permeates this state from top to bottom it is hard work not having at least a modest winner here. Weber and now Groce have shown an amazing ability to squander the resources of this state.

Chicago-City
Suburbs
Central Illinois
Metro East

GameOfThrows said:

The reality is that we are two seasons away from a potential deep tourney run

I've settled into if we make the tourney this season then Groce deserves to keep his job. He probably needs to be given two more seasons barring a catastrophe next season.

Just like in football. Patience is the key. We're two season away in both sports from being where we want to be as loyal fans of the beloved orange and blue.

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I actually think the best time to move on if the school is going to is after next season. RY18 is going to be minimal any way you cut it because of class balance so you don't have to worry about recruits too much. Also it is much more likely for an incoming coach to talk kids out of transferring and burning a year of eligibility than it is to have them stay committed to a school they haven't attended. Tilmon could go pro instead of staying but that is unlikely in this scenario as well because it means the team wasn't very good in 17-18 so not a ton of eyes were on him. The trickiest part would be maintaining relationships with the plethora of targets in RY19 so that that class is still strong for UI.

Second and Chalmers said:

Almost 5,000 of them now!







I mean, the reason I'm wrong is that the Loyalty hivemind always locks in the value of any recruit at the absolute highest anyone has ever suggested they might potentially be, so his inevitable "congrats on committing to Illinois" downgrade probably won't change any opinions. You're right.



But I'm getting old now, and I have been through so many cycles of totally irrational, unjustified recruit hype to demanding that freshmen play over better, more experienced upperclassmen to disappointment and anger over their performance versus ridiculous over-inflated expectations to denial that the players were talented in the first place, to finally, of course, demands that they be benched in favor of new over-hyped recruits. I'm sick of it. It drives me crazy that long-time Illini fans keep repeating the cycle and never learn.

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This should be required reading for everyone on this site. Latest example being Kipper, whose excellence is still unknown. So many previous examples. Unfair to the players, coaches, and fans. When someone is an unknown quantity, doesn't do anyone any good to start pumping them up as potential game changing savior of program. Regardless of what inflated stuff people post based on practice reports, speculation, wishful thinking etc. we should all recognize that for the most part we know very little about how these players will perform in a college game until we actually see them perform in a college game.

haasi said:

This should be required reading for everyone on this site. Latest example being Kipper, whose excellence is still unknown. So many previous examples. Unfair to the players, coaches, and fans. When someone is an unknown quantity, doesn't do anyone any good to start pumping them up as potential game changing savior of program. Regardless of what inflated stuff people post based on practice reports, speculation, wishful thinking etc. we should all recognize that for the most part we know very little about how these players will perform in a college game until we actually see them perform in a college game.

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That's every fan of every team in every sport. It represents hope that the next great player is arriving. While it is probably unfair to the individual player, this board and fandom in general would be pretty boring if we have to take a measured approach to every new player and new season.

Don't think so. You shouldn't have to hyperinflate expectations based on unfounded speculation for college basketball not to be boring


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MadSeason said:

this board and fandom in general would be pretty boring if we have to take a measured approach to every new player and new season.

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Well, you get candy with your vegetables, namely more emphasis on how awesome guys like Hill and Black are.

The net amount of hype can stay the same, it just needs to be more evenly and logically spread through the life cycle of a player.

And to bring it to this discussion, people are acting like the possibility of losing Tilmon and Frazier means consigning ourselves to going 5-30 next year and rebuilding from rubble. The lack of excitement over what's possible with guys like Black and JCL and Lucas and Finke and a new, better coach just shows how skewed this all is. Those players are good!

We think Trent Frazier would have more of a positive impact on the 2017-18 Illini than Cuonzo Martin? I have a hard time making sense of that, beyond just placing an irrational value on 18 year old recruits.

Obelix said:

That was actually Weber's excuse and I do not buy it. Weber does not have the personality or recruiting ability to become a difference maker in the high-major ranks.

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Well, just to be clear, I don't feel that's an excuse - if that were indeed the case, that's a failure that still absolutely falls on Weber's shoulders just as much as his patented "don't even get a shot attempt" game-ending possessions would.

Second and Chalmers said:

Well, you get candy with your vegetables, namely more emphasis on how awesome guys like Hill and Black are.

The net amount of hype can stay the same, it just needs to be more evenly and logically spread through the life cycle of a player.

And to bring it to this discussion, people are acting like the possibility of losing Tilmon and Frazier means consigning ourselves to going 5-30 next year and rebuilding from rubble. The lack of excitement over what's possible with guys like Black and JCL and Lucas and Finke and a new, better coach just shows how skewed this all is. Those players are good!

We think Trent Frazier would have more of a positive impact on the 2017-18 Illini than Cuonzo Martin? I have a hard time making sense of that, beyond just placing an irrational value on 18 year old recruits.

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When you guys have decided on what I can or cannot get excited about and how I can or cannot express it on the forum, please let me know.

I want to propose where i see the decade-long decline began.




In two words.





Eric Gordon.

haasi said:

Don't think so. You shouldn't have to hyperinflate expectations based on unfounded speculation for college basketball not to be boring


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Guess i'm not seeing hyperinflated expectations that you are. Sure there are a few crazies that will expect Tilmon to be a 20 and 10 #1 overall pick. For the most part i see people expecting top 100 guys to be impact players. Thats not crazy and not placing too much on a kids shoulders. I guarantee every recruit thinks he is going to be a program changing talent.

kcib8130 said:

I want to propose where i see the decade-long decline began.




In two words.





Eric Gordon.

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I would say the moment the horn went off against Penn State in 2006 with the ball still on Rich McBride's fingertips.

In the 80 games before that moment we were 73-7. In the next 74 games afterward we went 40-34.

Second and Chalmers said:

We think Trent Frazier would have more of a positive impact on the 2017-18 Illini than Cuonzo Martin? I have a hard time making sense of that, beyond just placing an irrational value on 18 year old recruits.

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We have Frazier in the fold, we dont have Cuonzo. Not that i think this class justifies keeping Groce but that is a false comparison. Not that we could have kept Self but I absolutely would take Charlie Villanueva over Bruce Weber.

Maybe some are overrating the incoming class, but some are underestimating it