Get rid of any hypotheticals and assume we lose Tilmon and Frazier.
TJL, JCL, DJW, Black, and Finke is plenty of top-line talent to make some noise in the Big Ten and comfortably make the tournament.
That's the difference a good coach makes. And that's all besides any talent he would surely add on and/or retain.
I don't think we even remember what it looks like to have an Illini team be more than the sum of their parts anymore. Demetri McCamey, Chester Frazier, Trent Meacham, Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale were the warhorse starting five for a 5 seed that finished 2nd in the Big Ten. Calvin Brock and Dominique Keller were basically our only contributors off the bench. That's a thing that really happened in real life, and with a just okay coach.
If I were a supervillain I'd round up all of you claiming our players don't have the talent to be winning difference-makers in the Big Ten and force you to watch our overtime win against a Top 10 Purdue team in Mackey that year like that dude in Clockwork Orange.
Robbie Hummel, E'Twaun Moore, JaJuan Johnson, you know that team. They got beaten (twice!) by the Bad News Bears of the Weber era.