2017 Coaching Carousel

Second and Chalmers · Jan 22, 2017

I think generally speaking teams fire their coach after the NIT.

Georgia Tech fired Brian Gregory after their NIT games last year and Arizona State fired Herb Sendek after the NIT the year before.

If you don't make the NIT final four in New York, it's usually over in about a week, week and a half at the most, and a lot of the coaching candidates are busy in the NCAA tournament over that period anyway.

Jkat00 · Jan 22, 2017

Second and Chalmers said:
I think generally speaking teams fire their coach after the NIT.

Georgia Tech fired Brian Gregory after their NIT games last year and Arizona State fired Herb Sendek after the NIT the year before.

If you don't make the NIT final four in New York, it's usually over in about a week, week and a half at the most, and a lot of the coaching candidates are busy in the NCAA tournament over that period anyway.

Exactly. I think Whitman holds on to Groce until he knows he can announce his replacement within 48 hours. The timing is everything and JW showed he knows that with the way he handled the Lovie hire.

Obelix · Jan 22, 2017

Jkat00 said:
Exactly. I think Whitman holds on to Groce until he knows he can announce his replacement within 48 hours. The timing is everything and JW showed he knows that with the way he handled the Lovie hire.

I think the Lovie hire was an opportunistic hire of an NFL coach without a job, etc. Unless Groce hires somebody already out of a job, or the NBA, this hiring will be a much more conventional one where Groce will announce the firing and then follow appropriate channels (i.e., AD) to hire the right coach.

JW will not keep Groce until a replacement is secured, actually expect a swift decision once the season is over (NCAA, NIT, or nothing) with an announcement on Groce within a week. I'd also venture to say that we will move quickly, but will follow follow appropriate channels, which means that it will take longer than 48 hours. How much longer depends on when the Illini season is over (i.e., if there is no post-season of any sort, the decision will take longer after the announcement on Groce since many coaches may still be playing in the tournament).

KansasIllinifan · Jan 23, 2017

I don't want Groce hiring his own replacement.

The Worm · Jan 23, 2017

Not sure if I've seen TTU HC Chris Beard mentioned in this thread but that guy can definitely coach. No ties to the Midwest (not sure any of our most successful coaches had previous ties) but he'd be a home run in my book.

homesickalien · Jan 23, 2017

The Worm said:
Not sure if I've seen TTU HC Chris Beard mentioned in this thread but that guy can definitely coach. No ties to the Midwest (not sure any of our most successful coaches had previous ties) but he'd be a home run in my book.

I believe that's his alma mater and dream job.

ChrisNMattoon · Jan 23, 2017

The whole ties to the Midwest or Illinois is overblown. Kruger didn't have ties, came from Florida. Self was a Tulsa guy who while was an "Up and comer" wasn't a household name. If we go this route, and I hope we do, JW really needs to do his homework and find the right fit. A balance between recruiter and Xs Os.

Smacko · Jan 23, 2017

Second and Chalmers said:
I think generally speaking teams fire their coach after the NIT.

Georgia Tech fired Brian Gregory after their NIT games last year and Arizona State fired Herb Sendek after the NIT the year before.

If you don't make the NIT final four in New York, it's usually over in about a week, week and a half at the most, and a lot of the coaching candidates are busy in the NCAA tournament over that period anyway.

In our situation there is zero benefit in firing him mid-season. If we had an assistant who deserved a shot at being an interim to prove themselves it would be different. Firing him mid-season just gives other coaches more time to start working on our recruits and getting them to ask for releases from their NLOI. Wait until we have a good plan in place at the end of the season and then move quickly.

Kathy · Jan 23, 2017

Jkat00 said:
Groce will be fired if they don't make the NCAA Tournament. I promise.

...And if he's not fired, and you break your promise..... then what?

mattcoldagelli · Jan 23, 2017

Second and Chalmers said:
I guess I don't quite understand this. Does this mean he's gonna be a better coach or a better recruiter?

He's gotten 4 five star guys in six years as a P5 head coach. He's gonna do BETTER than that at Illinois? That seems like a stretch to me.

The thinking (my thinking, anyway) is he stays pretty much the same, and you subtract the from-the-start opposition at Tennessee or the institutional disinterest of Cal, and add hometown familiarity and a conference that is a bit more predisposed towards his preferred style of play.

I don't have any idea how you'd quantify it, but it feels like a lot of hurdles get pulled off the track.

HOOPDOG · Jan 23, 2017

I'm not even sure why people are talking about the NIT, there is no way we win enough games to get invited to that tournament either.

mhuml32 · Jan 23, 2017

The Worm said:
Not sure if I've seen TTU HC Chris Beard mentioned in this thread but that guy can definitely coach. No ties to the Midwest (not sure any of our most successful coaches had previous ties) but he'd be a home run in my book.

He took the job at UNLV after last season, and then jumped to TTU weeks later. If he then jumped to Illinois less than a year later, his word would be worthless and would face dogged accusations from rival coaches on the recruiting trail. I don't think he can make another move for at least a few years.

ILHoff · Jan 23, 2017

Second and Chalmers said:
I guess I don't quite understand this. Does this mean he's gonna be a better coach or a better recruiter?

He's gotten 4 five star guys in six years as a P5 head coach. He's gonna do BETTER than that at Illinois? That seems like a stretch to me.

Curious how many 5 stars he got at Tennessee vs Cal?

LurkLongandProsper · Jan 23, 2017

mattcoldagelli said:
The thinking (my thinking, anyway) is he stays pretty much the same, and you subtract the from-the-start opposition at Tennessee or the institutional disinterest of Cal, and add hometown familiarity and a conference that is a bit more predisposed towards his preferred style of play.

I don't have any idea how you'd quantify it, but it feels like a lot of hurdles get pulled off the track.

I understand this thinking, but if the belief is the recruiting (assuming that is included in 'he stays pretty much the same') stays the same, I am not sure I understand where the upside comes from outside of recruiting based on the existing body of work. Legitimately asking, do you see coaching upside as compared with his previous stops (not compared to our current coach) other than those perceived employee happiness issues? Interested in the thinking, I'm not a huge Cuonzo guy but am certainly listening to different lines of thinking.

mhuml32 · Jan 23, 2017

mattcoldagelli said:
The thinking (my thinking, anyway) is he stays pretty much the same, and you subtract the from-the-start opposition at Tennessee or the institutional disinterest of Cal, and add hometown familiarity and a conference that is a bit more predisposed towards his preferred style of play.

I don't have any idea how you'd quantify it, but it feels like a lot of hurdles get pulled off the track.

From someone who was working at UTK when he was there, I think the opposition against Cuonzo at Tennessee is overplayed. When he first got hired, people were in the throws of Pat Summitt's illness being announced and Tennessee football was supposedly returning to prominence under Derek Dooley, meaning no one cared about UTK basketball.

The opposition came in his last year at UTK, with a team that had high expectations and disappointed, (started 15-10, didn't beat a ranked team all season) then lucked into the tourney, and got even more luck when they faced a 11 seed (Iowa), 6 seed (UMass), and a 14 seed (Mercer) to make the sweet sixteen. This was a team that was supposed to be a contender for the SEC title (behind Florida but equal to Kentucky).

LurkLongandProsper · Jan 23, 2017

ILHoff said:
Curious how many 5 stars he got at Tennessee vs Cal?

2 at Cal (2015 class), 1 at UT (2013 class) per 247

helppitch · Jan 23, 2017

Illinoy said:
Does anyone think someone like a Chris Mack (Xavier) can be persuaded to move on. Yes he can last forever there and be in top 25 purgatory but will they ever be more than a sweet 16 power? Yes it is home for him but if you don't stick your pole in the water you never catch the big fish. Then there's Chris Holtmann at Butler who ironically went to to Taylor University.

I'm kind of in the Holtmann camp, if we could get him. Been pretty successful & mentored by Brad Stevens.

mattcoldagelli · Jan 23, 2017

LurkLongandProsper said:
I understand this thinking, but if the belief is the recruiting (assuming that is included in 'he stays pretty much the same') stays the same, I am not sure I understand where the upside comes from outside of recruiting based on the existing body of work. Legitimately asking, do you see coaching upside as compared with his previous stops (not compared to our current coach) other than those perceived employee happiness issues? Interested in the thinking, I'm not a huge Cuonzo guy but am certainly listening to different lines of thinking.

I'm a dummy, because I continually expect change and improvement to be possible from a profession that disproportionately draws stubborn people.

That said, if you can get people to guard, and you can get four and five-star talent....from that point, in college basketball, it's like having a runner on third. There *should* be lots of successful paths forward.

LurkLongandProsper · Jan 23, 2017

mattcoldagelli said:
I'm a dummy, because I continually expect change and improvement to be possible from a profession that disproportionately draws stubborn people.

That said, if you can get people to guard, and you can get four and five-star talent....from that point, in college basketball, it's like having a runner on third. There *should* be lots of successful paths forward.

Entirely true, I think this falls into the "safe floor with model for potential gains", the question then becomes how high you think the floor is. It feels like it'd have to be the NCAAT for fans to not get restless waiting for a big return on the talent.

Second and Chalmers · Jan 23, 2017

LurkLongandProsper said:
2 at Cal (2015 class), 1 at UT (2013 class) per 247

No, it was two at Tennessee. Robert Hubbs in 2013 and Jarnell Stokes in 2012. Stokes graduated a semester early from high school and enrolled and started playing immediately at Tennessee that season. Because of the weird timing he gets lost on certain lists, he wasn't a McDAA for that reason, he's not on RSCI, but he was a top 10-15 recruit in the country.

LurkLongandProsper · Jan 23, 2017

Second and Chalmers said:
No, it was two at Tennessee. Robert Hubbs in 2013 and Jarnell Stokes in 2012. Stokes graduated a semester early from high school and enrolled and started playing immediately at Tennessee that season. Because of the weird timing he gets lost on certain lists, he wasn't a McDAA for that reason, he's not on RSCI, but he was a top 10-15 recruit in the country.

247 shows him as a 4 star, cited source, you can take a look yourself. There are articles supporting your point, I'm just reporting what 247 has listed.

Golfer63 · Jan 23, 2017

ChrisNMattoon said:
The whole ties to the Midwest or Illinois is overblown. Kruger didn't have ties, came from Florida. Self was a Tulsa guy who while was an "Up and comer" wasn't a household name. If we go this route, and I hope we do, JW really needs to do his homework and find the right fit. A balance between recruiter and Xs Os.

Self not having Midwest ties was a big reason why Kansas was his dream job and why he left to go there. Getting a good coach with Midwest ties would play a big part and that coach staying at Illinois and not bolting for a blueblood.

Second and Chalmers · Jan 23, 2017

helppitch said:
I'm kind of in the Holtmann camp, if we could get him. Been pretty successful & mentored by Brad Stevens.

Holtmann never worked with Brad Stevens. He was only there for one year as an assistant to Brandon Miller.

Holtmann was an assistant under Groce at Ohio and then was the head coach at Gardner-Webb.

Holtmann and Groce are very close and go way, way back to being stars on the same small college basketball team. Holtmann was Groce's first hire at Ohio. I have a hard time seeing Holtmann taking Groce's job.

WesterveltVictoryCigar · Jan 23, 2017

Golfer63 said:
Self not having Midwest ties was a big reason why Kansas was his dream job and why he left to go there. Getting a good coach with Midwest ties would play a big part and that coach staying at Illinois and not bolting for a blueblood.

Yeah, that's what we did.

Illinimobile · Jan 23, 2017

LurkLongandProsper said:
247 shows him as a 4 star, cited source, you can take a look yourself. There are articles supporting your point, I'm just reporting what 247 has listed.

http://verbalcommits.com/players/jarnell-stokes